Transcription
In this clip, we will talk about whether gold will go up or go down. Because during this period, no matter where Sai goes, whether meeting people in person or on live streams, the most common question people ask is, "P' Sai, will gold go up or will it go down?" Or they ask, "Gold has dropped a lot right now, should I buy it?" Do you see me as a gold shop? Even real gold shops might not even know whether the price of gold will go up or go down. If anyone knew, they would probably be very rich by now. But anyway, even though sometimes we might just want to sing songs on live streams or dress up as Sailor Moon, our fans will still request to talk about serious financial matters all the time. Therefore, in this clip, we will talk seriously about whether gold will go up or go down. Because you requested it, and we love to please our FC. And we hope that the information in this clip will help you in your decision-making, whether you think gold will go up or down from now on. Support the clip "Gold, what are you going to do?" from the Money Monster channel at this QR code. Or support the Soney Monster channel very easily by pressing like, share, comment, come chat, and subscribe for us. Or for anyone who wants to support a woman who wants to be Sailor Moon to talk about finance for a long time, you can become a member. Thank you, thank you.
Alright, let's start. Let's see what events have happened with gold during this period, or recently, in the past few years. Let's start with this question that people always ask: "P' Sai, the price of gold has dropped a lot, should I buy it?" Or, "Should I sell it?" Let me state first, right from the beginning of this clip, that this is not an investment advice clip. P' Sai does not recommend investing. Because if it is an investment, then it is your own money. If there is a loss, we will not be sitting here comforting each other. So, be careful. But since we want to please our FC, we have gone to find information for you. And we think this information will be very useful in saving you time from having to find it yourself. Because you will be able to see it for yourself and decide whether you think gold will go up or down. Let's start by looking at this graph.
This graph shows that this is the first time in modern financial history that global central banks have emergency reserves in gold more than in US dollars held by central banks worldwide. It surged past the US dollar because during the past 3-4 years, central banks worldwide have been aggressively sweeping gold into their treasuries. And they have been sweeping gold into their treasuries without much regard for the price. Looking at Quarter 1, Q1 of 2026, central banks worldwide increased their gold purchases by as much as 244 tons, even though the first quarter of 2026 was when gold reached an all-time high price, or the most expensive in the history of planet Earth. And if we look at this graph, we will see a certain trend: during Quarter 1, 2026, when the price of gold was at its highest, central banks swept more gold into their treasuries than in the previous quarter, which was Q4 of 2025. It's a little more, but still more. And in Quarter 1 of 2026, central banks worldwide bought more gold than in Quarter 1 of 2025, year on year, it's also more. This data therefore concludes, as Sai just mentioned, that central banks worldwide are buying gold into their treasuries without caring about the price. They just buy. So the question is, why? Why do central banks worldwide need to buy so much gold into their treasuries?
One of the important reasons why central banks need to sweep so much gold into their treasuries is because even central banks themselves do not trust fiat money, whether that fiat is the US dollar or the currency of their own country. Because the logic is very simple: what we believe in, we will put our money into. And the fact that we see central banks having more gold than dollars, meaning they put more money into gold than dollars, implies that central banks themselves believe in gold more than fiat or government money. The next question is, this statement that central banks don't trust fiat, or trust fiat less than gold, is it just a feeling, P' Sai? Is it not tangible? If so, then we must ask, do you believe in inflation? What is inflation? Inflation is when things are expensive. Why are they expensive? They are expensive because the value of money depreciates. Does Sai believe this statement? "Mmm." Believe half, the other half needs explanation. The half that I believe is that inflation is real, because the value of money depreciates all the time. The other half that needs explanation is because everything has become more expensive. Ah, this "more expensive" needs explanation because it depends on what we use to measure when we say things are more expensive. Let's look at this graph.
This is the price of commodities since 1972. Why 1972? Because President Richard Nixon removed gold from backing the US dollar in 1971. Therefore, this chart starts from 1972. On the graph, there are two lines. The first line, blue, is the price of goods compared to fiat money, government money. You will see that the blue line, oh wow, it's inflated, the price of goods is expensive, soaring like a sky goose. The other line is the price of goods compared to gold, the black line. And with the black line, we will see that the price of goods has become cheaper, a continuous trend of becoming cheaper. If you compare the price of goods with gold, everything will be cheaper by an average of 0.8% per year, compounded for 200 years. And don't compare this with Bitcoin because it will be too shocking. The question is, why? Why do prices become cheaper when compared to gold? Simply, gold becomes more expensive all the time, right? Yes. And actually, according to theoretical and technical principles, the price of goods, as time passes and technology improves, should already be cheaper. We produce food, we produce goods with better technology, which means we can produce more and produce faster, which means we can supply more. And the more we produce, the easier we produce, the faster we produce, it should not become more expensive. But the only reason why, despite good technology, easy production, fast production, and high production, things become more expensive, the only reason is because money depreciates in value, because the money used has no quality.
At this point, don't sell everything. Don't go all in on gold. Calm down. At least watch this clip until the end. Because if you ask, "So, if I don't hold any fiat money and hold all gold instead, there won't be any problems, right?" Listen first. It depends on how you hold gold. I'm not talking about asset allocation, but don't go all in on anything, including gold. You ask, "Is holding gold really problem-free?" You have to ask what kind of holding. This means holding paper gold contracts or tangible gold. Let me explain. Because when talking about buying and selling gold, most people don't buy tangible gold. Most people buy paper gold, or it has an official name: unallocated gold. Translated into Thai, it means gold without a specified bar. Unallocated gold, or gold without a specified bar, is the official name for paper gold contracts. Paper gold contracts that promise that your name, the buyer's name, is probably attached to a piece of gold in a vault somewhere. Which, in reality, might not exist. And you ask, there are people who don't care if it doesn't exist. Because they will say, "Oh, people who buy gold for trading, for profit, they don't want to hold physical gold anyway." They just want it to accumulate value, trade it for value, and so on. That's fine, it depends on each person's convenience and preference. But if I were to tell you where the problem lies, the problem is here. This chart, data from Alas Market Gold Money Research 2021, states that gold contracts in the world total around 635,000 million US dollars. While the actual gold used to back this amount of paper contracts is only about 500 tons. 500 tons is approximately 16 million ounces. And if compared to the current price of gold, it would be around 4,360 US dollars per ounce. Therefore, 16 million Troy ounces of gold would be gold with a value of approximately 70,000 million US dollars. What? The problem is that paper gold is 635,000 million US dollars, but the actual gold backing it is only 70,000 million US dollars. Get it? This means the actual gold is only worth 1/9th of the paper gold. To put it simply, imagine one gold bar. One gold bar becomes 9 repeated paper contracts. Get it? We have 9 paper contracts backed by the same gold. But this system can only survive, it will not have problems, as long as a large number of people do not withdraw gold simultaneously. Or, to put it another way, if at any moment a large number of people come to withdraw gold simultaneously, it will definitely collapse.
Now, this method is one of the mechanisms that allows the Western world to suppress the price of gold below its true value. How, you ask? Let's briefly review Economics 101. Regarding supply, the more supply there is, the lower the price will be. Okay, got it, let's move on. Therefore, the fact that there is only 70,000 million US dollars worth of real gold in the vault, but gold contracts can be created and sold up to 635,000 million US dollars, how is that different from printing money? It's the same. And what does that do? It allows more gold to be sold, making it seem like there is more gold supply than there actually is. When the perceived supply is high, the price is not its fair value, or the price is not what it truly should be. Look at this graph. This is the true price of gold, or the fair price value, compared to the price of gold currently being traded. The gold line is the actual traded price, which is currently around 4,360 US dollars per ounce. While the price called Fair Price Value, or the price it truly should be, is currently 18,500 US dollars per ounce. (If there were no money printing, this would be the price.) This means that yes, this is the price of gold that the Western world has suppressed for 50 years. Write it down, write it down at the top of a piece of paper: the Western world has suppressed the true price of gold, meaning the price is lower than its Fair Value, for 50 years. Keep that in mind, because now we will go back to the question that I think many people are wondering: "Can we go back to the topic of a run on gold again, P' Sai? Is it possible for people to rush to withdraw gold? Will people rush to withdraw gold? And why would they rush?" Honestly, if it were 2-3 years ago, one might say there was no chance for the paper gold market to collapse. It would just be a beautiful paper game that people would forget. Because in the modern financial system, there are incentives to encourage people to hold gold in unallocated form, meaning buying paper contracts. Whether it's free fees, special tax benefits, or something like that, to make investors feel that "hey, it's easy to trade, easy to sell, and profitable at your fingertips." And while everything was flowing smoothly, suddenly someone made it not so smooth. And that is China.
Honestly, if I were America, I would hate China too, because they trip me up at every turn. The story is quite complex, actually. There's also the matter of the gold corridor from the IMF, I've made a clip about the gold corridor before, you can go watch it. But for this clip, I want to tell it a bit more concisely. It starts with the fact that for many decades, Western central banks released gold into the market, like leasing it out, releasing leased gold into the global market so that people could use it as collateral and create paper contracts, right? The problem is that when the Western world released gold from their treasuries, which in reality is like vital blood in the body of the Western financial system, once it was released into the market, it was gone for good, it didn't come back. And where did most of it go? To Asia. And which Asian country buys a lot of gold, number 1 in the world? It's China. For the past 10 years, China has been buying gold aggressively. China isn't just buying gold that comes from the Western world either. China imported 939 tons of gold in 2025 alone. That is a very large amount, both in terms of quantity and proportion. Because our world can only produce, or mine, about 3,500 tons of gold per year, and 1/4 of that has already gone to China. This makes China's cumulative gold imports from 2015 until now reach 14,000 tons. And what is important? Do you remember what I told you to keep in mind earlier? What is important is that China buys gold at a price that China knows very well is a price that the Western world has suppressed below its fair value for 50 years. And this might be the same thing that central banks worldwide also know. That's why it's one of the reasons why central banks worldwide have swept the most gold into their treasuries in history, which is during these past 3 years. And if you ask whether central banks worldwide have become aware of this, and therefore are sweeping more gold into their treasuries, are they buying less paper gold? Is the popularity of paper gold decreasing? We can see this from the gold futures open interest. This measures the volume of paper gold trading, and it has fallen to its lowest level in the past 13 years. So it's less popular. Does this mean everyone is starting to think that eventually, paper gold will have to be replaced by physical gold? At this point, it's another easy observation point. If investors were to look at whether the price of gold goes up or down, which side of the world would benefit more? China has been sweeping a lot of gold into its treasuries, right? They bring a lot of gold into the country. Therefore, those who hold a lot of gold are not just the Chinese government, but also private Chinese companies and consumers in China also hold a lot of gold. So, if there is any news or event that causes the price of gold to rise, especially to surge, it will benefit the Chinese side. So you ask, "Ah, what's happening now? Why is gold falling without a break, P' Sai?"
One of the reasons is government bonds. The yield on government bonds is very high. Right now, the US 30-year government bond, on May 19th, its yield went up to 5.2%. And that is high. That means between gold and government bonds, which people believe are both safe havens, but perhaps they are not the same anymore. Government bonds offer a high return of 5.2%, while gold is a safe haven that does not offer returns. It is possible that money will flow from gold to government bonds, which you might understand as, "Well, they offer such a high return of 5.2%, so I'll move my money there." But anyway, government bond yields being this high is not safe. But if I were to explain it, it would be a long story. I really want everyone to go back and watch the clip I made about government bonds being in the danger zone. Because when government bond yields rise this much, it means inflation. It means the cost of finance in the economic system has all gone up. And it means a significant loss of confidence to a certain extent. And this is not a good thing. But if we combine it with the gold story, these government bonds with very high yields are one of the dangerous signals warning that faith in fiat money is disappearing. Because if you compare the value of various currencies with gold, I will show you in this graph, the World Gold Council graph. This graph shows the price of gold compared to 10 currencies. Uh, look at January 2025, the gold price index against USD was at 100. And then by January 2026, the gold price index against USD was at 206. This means that the purchasing power of the US dollar, in terms of its ability to buy gold, has been cut in half within a single year. This is one of the periods in history where currency value depreciated most rapidly compared to gold. To summarize this clip briefly, whether you like or dislike gold, whether you are comfortable with gold or not, is one thing. But the more important thing is that you must do something about the fiat money you have received and are holding. Because fiat money is inflating and depreciating in value faster than ever before in the history of modern global finance. And everyone at the global level, at the central bank level, knows this. Hey!