Transcription
Hello everyone, welcome to History. March 23, 2015, early morning. A 91-year-old elder in Singapore Central Hospital passed away. News of his passing spread, and world leaders sent condolences. Lee Kuan Yew was mourned as a great statesman. [Music] Goh Chok Tong, crying at the memorial service, said: "I have been in diplomacy for so many years, and he was the one who taught me the most." However, the most powerful evaluation came from the British [Music] statesman. When he was Prime Minister, he said: "Every speech you give, [Music] I read and analyze everything you say. I have never missed anything. Never missed anything." Do you know how exaggerated this statement is? The game of international politics is full of unpredictable variables. Who dares to say they have never made a wrong prediction? But the general [Music] consensus was about this person. He was the founder of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew. Today, I want to talk to you about what this elder said and why he could predict today's world. It all started in 2013. [Music] Lee Kuan Yew was already 90 years old, his health was declining, but his mind was still sharp. He published a book, "Lee Kuan Yew: One Man's View of the World." In this book, [Music] the elder directly stated a series of bold predictions. At the time, not many people paid attention to him. Some said he was too pessimistic, and others said he was too extreme. But today, we will discover a chilling [Music] fact. Almost everything he said has come true. Let's start with the first prediction. [Music] Prediction: China will not accept international arbitration. In 2013, the Philippine government made a bold decision to take the South China Sea dispute to the International Court of Justice. At that time, the whole world [Music] applauded. Western media called it a civilized approach, resolving disputes through law. Diplomats from various countries were optimistic, [Music] thinking that if the court ruled in favor of the Philippines, China would have to comply. [Music] After all, China is also a signatory to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Just as everyone was optimistic, [Music] Lee Kuan Yew said something that stunned everyone. "China will not accept the South China Sea ruling from the International Court of Justice," [Music] he said, not talking about the possibility, but with a very firm tone that they would not. "Why?" he continued, "To make the Law of the Sea respected, you must rely on the military might of the United States in the Asia-Pacific." The meaning of this statement was clear: international law is useless in this matter. The only thing that can truly suppress China is the US Navy. He was accused of speaking for China, of being too pessimistic about international law. A few years later, on July 12, 2016, [Music] the Hague tribunal issued its ruling, stating that China's claims had no legal basis. This should have been a great victory for international law, right? [Music] However, a few hours later, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement: "We do not accept, we do not recognize." The ruling was as worthless as a piece of paper. International [Music] pressure did not work, and China continued to build facilities in the South China Sea. By 2024, Chinese coast guard ships are frequently present in the South China Sea, confronting Philippine ships at the Ren'ai Reef. [Music] Everything Lee Kuan Yew predicted has come true, without exception. But the most terrifying thing is not that he was right, but why he was right. [Music] When the whole world believed in the effectiveness of international law, Lee Kuan Yew saw something else. For any major power, when it comes to core interests, they will not hand it over to an international court for judgment, no matter what the court is called or how legitimate the ruling is. This reality cannot be changed. This is the first characteristic of Lee Kuan Yew's view of the world. [Music] He never believed in beautiful ideals, only in reality. Japan is slowly declining. In 2013, [Music] under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan launched a vigorous economic stimulus package. The government spent money to reform the economy, hoping to boost Japan's economy. The Nikkei rose by 56%, the yen depreciated, exports soared, and Japan was excited, believing that the lost 20 years were finally over. Just as the whole country was celebrating, Lee Kuan Yew said something that made the Japanese people speechless. "Japan has more and more elderly people, [Music] but they do not accept immigrants. Japan is slowly heading towards stagnation." This statement, upon reaching Japan, caused an uproar. "How can the great nation of Japan become like this?" Many people doubted Lee Kuan Yew, believing that economic growth was not the problem. The large-scale printing of money to stimulate the economy [Music] did not work. The most disheartening thing was the last sentence: "Young Japanese people, who can speak English, might go abroad." [Music] At that time, almost no one believed this prediction. In 2013, Japan seemed to be on the path to recovery, with economic reforms and stimulus. Ten years later, the numbers are chilling. In 2023, Japan's GDP was surpassed by Germany, and it is no longer the world's third-largest economy. In June 2025, Japan's GDP will be surpassed by India again, falling to fifth in the world. Even more shocking is that Japan's population has fallen from its peak of 125.205 million in 2010 to 126 million in 2024, a decrease of 6 million in over a decade. The number of babies born in 2024 is only 688,000, a record low for 11 consecutive years, falling below 700,000 for the first time. Japan's GDP in [Music] 1995 was 5.5 trillion US dollars. In 2025, it is estimated to be only 4.27 trillion US dollars. [Music] It has not grown, but has declined. This is not a recession, this is a slow death. Lee Kuan Yew's "slowly heading towards stagnation" was not an exaggeration, but an objective description. Japan is like an elder, slowly [Music] declining, but inevitably moving towards decay. Why could Lee Kuan Yew see this 10 years ago? Because he didn't look at stock market fluctuations or GDP growth. [Music] He looked at the demographic structure. Once a society's population shrinks, no amount of economic stimulus will work. No matter how much money you inject, you cannot bring young people back. Why are economic stimulus packages useless? Because they solve liquidity problems, [Music] but Japan's real problem is not a lack of money, but a lack of people. Without enough young people to consume, innovate, [Music] and start businesses, how can the economy grow? And Japan refuses to open its borders to immigration. Why? Because Japan is a very homogeneous society. [Music] They fear the impact of foreign cultures and the loss of their so-called "Japanese identity." Lee Kuan Yew calmly pointed out this contradiction: "If you want a good economy, you must accept immigrants. If you want to maintain your identity, [Music] you must accept decline. You cannot have both." In 2019, Japan finally began to relax its immigration policies. By 2024, the number of foreigners in Japan reached 3.67 million, a historical high. [Music] The prediction made 30 years ago has come true. This is the second characteristic of Lee Kuan Yew's view of the world: he looks at structural issues, not short-term fluctuations. [Music] When a structure reverses, it reverses. When a structure reverses, it reverses. Prediction: India is not a real country. In 2013, [Music] the world was debating the rise of China and India. Which would become the superpower of the 21st century? Many Western scholars were optimistic about India, saying that India has democracy, speaks English, has a young population, and a strong IT industry. China, although ahead now, [Music] lacks freedom and democracy and will eventually be surpassed by India. After listening to these analyses, Lee Kuan Yew said something that infuriated Indians and Westerners: "It is unlikely that India will catch up with China. India is not a real country. It is just 32 independent ethnic groups, neatly arranged on both sides of the British railway lines. India is not a real country." [Music] This statement caused an uproar. Western commentators called it the prejudice of an autocrat against democracy. Lee Kuan Yew continued: "Do not compare India with China. They are two different countries. India's growth rate is about one-third of China's. India's economy can reach six or seven-tenths of China's. [Music] The current estimates will not be much more." Note that Lee Kuan Yew said "six or seven-tenths," which is a very conservative estimate. Ten years later, the reality is: In 2024, China's GDP is 18.7 trillion. [Music] India's GDP is only 21% of China's. Even Lee Kuan Yew's conservative estimate has not been reached. Why is the gap so large? Lee Kuan Yew provided a profound explanation: India's democratic system and political structure hinder its development. No matter what political leaders do, it must go through a complex central process, and then through even more complex [Music] processes. Look at the construction industries of India and China, and you will understand the difference between a country that can do things and a country that only talks [Music] but cannot do things. This statement is very well put: "talking but not doing." For example, the Mumbai-Ahmedabad high-speed rail in India. Construction began in [Music] 2017, originally planned to open in 2023. By 2025, it is still under construction. The opening [Music] date has been repeatedly postponed. And China? The first high-speed rail car was produced in 2008. [Music] By 2024, China has built the world's largest high-speed rail network, exceeding 45,000 kilometers. This is the difference between doing and not doing. However, Lee Kuan Yew did not completely dismiss India. He acknowledged that India's private enterprises are better than China's, and India's democratic system and legal framework give it advantages. [Music] Although in the early stages, China's system was more effective. This statement is very important. Lee Kuan Yew is not saying China is better than India. He is saying that in the development phase, China's system works faster. As for long-term [Music] advantages, that's another matter. But can India afford to wait? In 2024, India's population has already surpassed China's, making it the world's most populous country. If India does not develop in the next ten years, its 1.4 billion population [Music] will not be a demographic dividend, but a demographic burden. This is the third characteristic of Lee Kuan Yew's view of the world: he doesn't care about ideology, only about whether you can get things done. Is democracy good? Theoretically, of course. But if democracy hinders development, [Music] it is not the best choice for developing countries. Prediction: The European Union will disintegrate. [Music] In his book, Lee Kuan Yew wrote that the progressive forces in Europe have been shattered. In the past two to three years, European leaders like Merkel and Macron have successively stated that multiculturalism is not working. [Music] They increasingly feel that these people cannot integrate. The root cause is cultural, linguistic, and religious differences. [Music] At that time, this statement was criticized as racist. [Music] Multiculturalism is the correct path for Europe, and it is equivalent to political suicide. But Lee Kuan Yew ignored them and continued: "So, we will likely see European governments accepting immigrants when they can, [Music] but when elections approach and extremist parties use angry rhetoric to surpass moderates, they will immediately stop." This prediction began to come true in 2015. After the Syrian refugee crisis, the largest [Music] influx of refugees into Europe occurred. More than a million refugees, mostly from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, entered Europe. [Music] Merkel made a historic decision to open her borders, saying, "We can do this." On September 4, 2015, [Music] the body of the drowned Syrian boy Alan Kurdi washed ashore, and the world was shocked. The welcome for refugees reached its peak. But Lee Kuan Yew's words began to come true, one by one. On December 31, 2015, Cologne experienced a large-scale sexual assault incident. [Music] Over 1,200 women reported the incidents. Victims said they were surrounded and robbed by men, mostly of Arab or North African descent. [Music] The Brexit referendum in 2016, with immigration being a key issue, resulted in a 51.9% vote to leave. [Music] Starting in 2017, the National Rally in France, [Music] an extremist political party, saw its support continuously grow. By 2024, the Alternative for Germany party became the second-largest party. In the 2024 European Parliament elections, extremist parties made historic breakthroughs, using angry rhetoric to surpass moderates. This is not a prediction, this is the reality of European politics today. But even more profound predictions followed. In 2013, he also made a statement about the EU expanding too quickly, from 15 core members to 28. He predicted it would likely fail because there was no real fiscal integration. [Music] The EU, in its current form, is doomed to fail. His judgment was that if it did not further integrate into a European nation, [Music] it would collapse. This prediction has come true. The Greek debt crisis, [Music] political instability in Italy, the Yellow Vest movement in France – the unity of the EU [Music] is gradually disintegrating. Lee Kuan Yew specifically mentioned Britain, saying that Britain joined the European Economic Community to escape long-term difficulties, not to become politically integrated. Britain needed economic cooperation, not to become European. In 2016, Britain voted to leave, and officially left the EU in 2020. Lee Kuan Yew's judgment was completely correct. This is the fourth characteristic of Lee Kuan Yew's view of the world: he does not believe that people of different backgrounds can integrate. Europe's multiculturalism sounds idealistic. But if the fundamental interests are not aligned, [Music] and you want to face reality, you must always choose to believe in reality. Prediction Five: Sino-US conflict is inevitable. [Music] In 2013, Sino-US relations had friction, but were still within the framework of a constructive strategic partnership. The Obama administration was rebalancing, but emphasized cooperation with China. Many people believed that although there was competition between the US and China, it could be resolved through dialogue and would not escalate. [Music] Lee Kuan Yew said: "Do Chinese leaders seriously intend to replace the US as the number one in Asia in the foreseeable future, and then as the number one in the world? Of course, they do. Why wouldn't they? They have achieved an economic miracle, [Music] transforming a poor and backward society into the world's second-largest economy. They have 4,000 years of cultural history and 1.3 billion people. How can they not want to be number one in Asia, and then number one in the world?" Lee Kuan Yew continued: "The competition between the US and China is inevitable. This is not a World War II-style struggle for global dominance, but China is only acting in its own national interest. [Music] China has no interest in changing the whole world." This statement contains two judgments: [Music] First, the conflict is inevitable. Second, the conflict can be avoided. Years later, one of the judgments has come true. In June 2018, the Trump administration officially imposed tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, with an additional [Music] 25% tariff. The Sino-US trade war officially began. Everyone knows what happened afterwards. [Music] In 2019, Huawei was placed on the entity list, escalating the conflict. In 2020, [Music] the US imposed sanctions on Chinese technology companies. In 2022, [Music] the Biden administration issued comprehensive semiconductor export controls. Tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles were increased to 100%. In 2025, Trump threatened to impose a 145% tariff on Chinese goods if he becomes president again. The conflict is indeed inevitable. Even more profound is Lee Kuan [Music] Yew's judgment on the nature of this competition. He said: "China's intention is to become the most powerful country in the world, and to be accepted as China, not as a perpetual member of the West." This statement [Music] highlights the core of the Sino-US conflict. China does not want to join the Western bloc; they want to establish their own rules. Can the US tolerate this? [Music] No, because since World War II, the US has been accustomed to setting the rules and leading the world order. Suddenly, a country says it wants to establish its own rules. How can the US not suppress it? He also predicted the outcome of this competition: "In 20 to 30 years, the power will eventually be balanced for the first time. China will push the Americans out of the sea. The second balance will push them out of China's exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea." The actual situation in the South China Sea is gradually realizing this prediction. However, Lee Kuan Yew also emphasized that conflict can be avoided. Why? Because both sides understand how disastrous the consequences of war would be. This is a cold, hard reality. It is not deterrence that restrains war, [Music] but nuclear weapons that restrain war. [Music] Even if China loses the first battle, it will fight the second, third, and fourth battles. Speaking of which, we need to talk about Taiwan. Lee Kuan Yew's prediction on the Taiwan issue is [Music] the most somber of all his predictions. In 2013, cross-strait relations were relatively calm. The Ma Ying-jeou government promoted cross-strait exchanges. Talking about war seemed distant. Lee Kuan Yew made an uncomfortable statement: "The biggest crisis that will arise between the US and China is the Taiwan issue. But I don't think Taiwan's independence will lead to war with China. The gains do not outweigh the losses. You can go to war and win the first battle, but are you prepared to fight war after war?" He then made his most core judgment: "Remember, no Chinese leader can continue to rule if Taiwan is lost during their tenure. Therefore, for the Chinese people, this is a very serious issue. Even if China loses the first battle, they will turn around and fight the second, third, and fourth battles, fighting continuously until they win. [Music] This is not worth it for the United States." This statement is too accurate. For China, the problem is political survival. [Music] Any leader who loses Taiwan during their term will be a historical sinner, and their political career will end immediately. China will fight regardless of the cost. For the United States, Taiwan is important, but [Music] not to the extent of fighting regardless of the cost. Lee Kuan Yew asked a pointed question: [Music] "Will the US fight for Taiwan, fight war after war?" The war in Afghanistan gave us the answer. In 2001, the US entered Afghanistan, aiming to establish democracy. On August 15, 2021, the US military withdrew, [Music] leaving behind chaos. The desperate people clinging to the planes, falling from the sky, were the embodiment of Lee Kuan Yew's prediction. Lee Kuan Yew had already said in 2009: [Music] "Trying to turn Afghanistan into a country is a waste of time. For the past thirty to forty years, there has never been a country there. Since the last king was overthrown, they have been fighting each other. How can you unite these fragmented pieces? It's impossible." History proved him right. Will the US fight to the end for Taiwan? This is a question no one dares to answer. Russia's Eastern Materials. Russia. In 2013, [Music] Putin's Russia was seen as reviving. Its economy was supported by oil prices. [Music] In 2014, Russia attempted to re-emerge on the world stage as a great power. He made two statements: "The Black Sea will be re-integrated into China. Russia's East will become China's material supply base." At that time, many people thought this was absurd. How could Russia become China's supplier? [Music] The result of the invasion of Ukraine is something everyone has seen. [Music] The West imposed the most severe sanctions in history on Russia. Russia's energy exports are basically sold to China. In 2024, Sino-Russian trade reached a historical high. The structure is unbalanced: Russia exports raw materials like natural gas, and imports finished products from China, such as cars, electronics, and machinery. [Music] Lee Kuan Yew's prediction of a raw material supplier has become a reality. Even more ironic is Lee Kuan Yew's warning about Russia's demographic problem. He said Putin's challenge was to give Russia a future full of hope. [Music] But the war has not solved the problem; instead, it has accelerated the demographic crisis. Young people [Music] are fleeing the battlefield, economic difficulties are increasing, and the population is further declining. Russia is slowly bleeding to death. [Music] At this point, you might ask, why are Lee Kuan Yew's predictions so accurate? It's simple. No matter how beautiful the ideals are, they are cruel. Singapore is a small island nation between Malaysia and Indonesia, with no natural resources and even needing to import water. To survive in such an environment, one must have an extreme understanding of geopolitics. You don't need to be a superpower, nor do you need to be wrapped up in ideology. You only care about one question: how does this real world work? Lee Kuan Yew never believed in beautiful ideals. He did not believe that democracy automatically brings prosperity, nor that international law is automatically respected. [Music] He saw that power, interests, culture, and population are the real elements that drive the world. As Asia's edition of The Economist said, he cut through the fog of propaganda and expressed the problems of our time with extraordinary clarity. This is why his words were so powerful. On March 23, 2015, Lee Kuan Yew passed away. At his funeral, Goh Chok Tong said that in his long diplomatic career, he had met countless leaders. But Lee Kuan Yew was unique. He taught me that the responsibility of a statesman is not to make people happy, but to make people face the truth. To make people face the truth, this is what [Music] Lee Kuan Yew did throughout his life. His words from 10 years ago were uncomfortable, and these words are sobering. Because we have to admit that this 91-year-old elder saw today's world. Perhaps this is the difference between a statesman and an ordinary person. Ordinary people see hope; statesmen see reality. Ordinary people believe in ideals; statesmen know that power is truth. Lee Kuan Yew left behind not just a series of accurate predictions, but [Music] a worldview free from ideological bias, the true face of the world. This world will not operate the way we wish it would. It has its own logic. [Music] Only by understanding this logic can one survive in this world. This is Lee Kuan Yew's legacy. Today's video ends here. Welcome to subscribe, like, and share. [Music] See you next time. Even if it's just that.