Transcription
Hello and welcome. Our top story is from the Horn of Africa. Eritrea has dismissed Ethiopia's accusations of preparing to launch a war as provocative saber rattling.
Now, this comes after Ethiopia accused Eritrea of actively preparing for a war in a letter to the UN chief Antonio Guterres. In the letter, Ethiopia's foreign minister accused the Eritrean government of colluding with an opposition group based in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region. The group being, uh, talked about is the hardliner faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or the TPLF. The TPLF is a politically banned group that dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades. Ethiopia has also accused Eritrea and the hardline opposition faction of funding, mobilizing, and directing armed groups to Ethiopia's Amhara, where the federal army has been facing rebels for several years.
The latest clash highlights the escalating tensions between the two neighbors over control of the Red Sea. Now, to understand the conflict, let's take a closer look at the decades-long bloody history of Ethiopia and Eritrea. Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993. Following that, a bloody border war broke out between the two countries from 1998 to 2000 that killed tens of thousands of people. Relations thawed between the two neighbors in 2018 after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power and signed a peace deal with President Isaias Afwerki. Now, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed then even received a Nobel Prize for the peace agreement in 2019. Eritrean troops also supported the Ethiopian federal forces during the war in the northern Tigray region between 2020 and 2022.
Since then, relations have again turned frosty between the two neighbors, with Eritrea accusing landlocked Ethiopia of eyeing its Assab port on the Red Sea. Now, Ethiopia legally lost access to the Red Sea after Eritrea's independence. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reiterated his desire for Ethiopia to regain Red Sea access several times, and this has caused alarm in Eritrea. Though Ethiopia has insisted that it wants to engage in good faith negotiations with its neighbor, Eritrea is not convinced.
In recent months, Eritrea has been strengthening ties with Ethiopia's top rival, Egypt. And Ethiopia has faced intense backlash from Egypt and the Sudan over its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, built on the Blue Nile River. Ethiopia's downstream neighbors have slammed the dam as an existential threat. Now, what has further fueled disputes is the recent surge in Nile waters that have inundated homes in Egypt and have displaced thousands in the Sudan. Egypt has accused the giant Nile Dam of worsening seasonal floods. However, Ethiopia has rejected those accusations. As Ethiopia faces pushback from its neighbors over control of the Nile River and the Red Sea, it remains to be seen if these disputes escalate into a broader regional conflict.
And for more on this, we have with us Moses Christmas Oello, who is a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, joining us live from Addis Ababa in Ethiopia. Welcome to First Post Africa.
>> Thank you, Alison. Now, Ethiopia's letter to the UN alleges collusion between Eritrea and the banned TPLF. How credible are these claims? And what strategic motivations might Eritrea have in aligning itself with the TPLF against Ethiopia at this moment?
>> Alison, uh, the letter written by the Ethiopian foreign minister to the, uh, United Nations Secretary General on the 2nd of October alleges that Eritrea, uh, in collusion with the TPLF of, you know, north of Ethiopia, uh, planning a war. Um, now, this allegation has been around for a while. Uh, but as you have rightly put it, uh, Eritrea completely, uh, denies this and makes its own, uh, counter accusations. Now, um, it should be important to, to, to know that Eritrea and Ethiopia have had an on-and-off, um, relationship over a long period of time. And therefore, this, uh, new, uh, and renewed rhetoric is not going to be the first time that we see some kind of tension between, uh, the two of them. What is good, uh, what is good to note is that all this rhetoric is, uh, is heightened. Both parties are indeed, in fact, showing some degree of restraint.
>> Now, Moses, Ethiopia has been increasingly vocal about its desire to regain access to the Red Sea, a stance that has, in the past, alarmed. To what extent is this dispute over sea access fueling these current tensions, and could it become a pretext for broader regional confrontation?
>> Alison, uh, sea access for Ethiopia is, uh, without a doubt, one of the many factors in this context that Ethiopia and Eritrea find themselves in. However, uh, the relationship, uh, between these two and the factors that are fueling, um, uh, these tensions are quite, uh, historical, symbolic, as well as economic, uh, in some ways. So it would be rather foolish to isolate one and elevate it as the primary, uh, reason for the, for the, for the tensions. Uh, that having been said, uh, Ethiopia is a country, and, uh, one way or another, its desire for, uh, access to the sea is shaping its behavior.
>> Right. And what role might regional bodies like the African Union, or even international actors such as the UN or Gulf States, play in de-escalating this growing Ethiopia-Eritrea rift?
>> Uh, if you listen carefully to the undertones coming both from Asmara and Addis Ababa, it is very clear, at least to me, that, uh, both parties are crying out to a credible, uh, mediator to, uh, help them to address, uh, this tension which is growing between them. Uh, Ethiopia's letter to, uh, the United Nations seemed to suggest that Ethiopia would be open to, uh, a negotiation within the context of an economic, uh, integration framework. Uh, whether that is pursued by, uh, the United Nations, to which the letter was addressed, or some other entity, you know, the African Union, or even the intergovernmental organization, is, you know, yet to be seen. It's important to note, though, that within the history of, uh, tension between these two countries, they've always prioritized addressing their issues on their own. So, mostly, uh, most likely, what, what would be needed is a facilitator who is able to dislodge them from these current tensions and then provide a framework that, you know, can trigger talks.
>> Moses, thank you for being with us on First Post Africa.
>> Thank you, Alison.
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