The Next League Winning QB Strategy

Who is the next league-winning quarterback? Today, we're going to be breaking down the anatomy of the quarterback position, the league winners that we're looking for, those 20-plus point per game producers. This is a series I do every year. This is, I think, the fifth or sixth year that I've been doing it. Every Saturday for the next month, we're going to go through a new position. Today, we're talking about quarterbacks. Next week, it'll be tight ends, then wide receiver and running back in that order. We go through the anatomy of the league winners since 2013 and then we use that as a checklist to see this year's crop of quarterbacks who has the league-winning upside that we're looking for.

So today, I'm just going to skim through the averages and all the stuff that we break down in years past. There's been 72 quarterbacks since 2013 that have scored 20-plus points per game on any given season. Aka, these guys were locked-in fantasy starters every single week. On average, they had about, uh, 33 pass attempts, 34 pass attempts per game, 2.63 touchdowns or 44 touchdowns on the season. Rush attempts about 5.74 per game, 97 rushing attempts on the season. And then rushing touchdowns about five on the season.

Those were their volume-based factors, their situational-based factors. We had about top six offenses on average, top 12 pass protection offensive lines on average, top five in the NFL in deep ball attempts per game, about 4.31 on average, top seven quarterback, uh, efficiency measured by ESPN's quarterback rating. Six-plus combined rushing pass attempts and, uh, rush attempts in the red zone. So ideally, we want quarterbacks that are heavily involved in their red zone offense. That's about top eight in the NFL on average. ADP-wise, we're generally among all fantasy positions the best at spotting good quarterback picks versus the rest of the position groups in fantasy football. They're usually drafted as quarterback ones or top eight quarterbacks on average. Um, and then top 12 pace of play offenses. We like uptempo. We like pass-heavy. And then top seven offenses in DVOA. Generally, we want talented pass catchers around the quarterbacks that we're drafting.

So, for those of you guys wondering, the guys that did this last year, lots of late-round hits. We had Drake May, Matthew Stafford, and Trevor Lawrence. Just 19% of the quarterbacks since 2013 were drafted outside of the top 15 quarterbacks in ADP, including May, Stafford, and Lawrence last season. Allen and Mahomes were both expected to be very good last year, and they were to be expected. They've done this 12 times in their careers combined. But like I said, there was five guys that did it last year. We are looking for the guys that are going to do it this year.

Some guys get there as runners like your Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, Cam Newton, Justin Fields, Jaylen Hurts type. Some guys get there as passers like Matthew Stafford last year or the Brady, Brees, Manning types of years past. Some guys do it in both facets. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Drake May, Pete Kyler Murray type of seasons. The goal is that they have a path, right? We're about to evaluate this year's quarterbacks in ADP. Passing quarterbacks need great weapons. They need good offensive lines. They need good game environments, uptempo game environments. Rushing quarterbacks need volume of rushing and, uh, rushing touchdowns, especially in the red zone. Balanced guys who are both good passers and good rushers are going to need to check most boxes.

So, we're going to go through as we always do for the fifth year in a row, eight quarterbacks at a time in order of Underdog ADP. So, these are not my rankings. These are the order of Underdog ADP. Right now, the goal here is that we're going to give them a strong hell yes, meaning a green check mark, a regular yes, a yellow check mark, a maybe, which is an orange question mark, or a no, which is a red kind of no if we expect them to hit the averages, which again, you guys can see on the screen that we deduced from the 72 league-winning quarterback seasons since 2013. Again, do they check the box? Do they not check the box? Maybe could they check the box is what we're looking for. And do they have the anatomy to be the next league-winning quarterback? By the end of the video, we'll talk about quarterback strategy and who we think is going to be the next league-winning in quarterbacks, the next Drake May, the next Matthew Stafford, the next Trevor Lawrence from this past year.

So, quarterbacks one through eight, these guys generally are all going inside of the top, let's say, seven rounds of redraft leagues with the earliest guy being Josh Allen in round two to three and then the latest guy being Dak Prescott going in about round seven. So again, we're going to go through and check the boxes with each one of these guys.

Josh Allen, he checks every box imaginable. He's already done this four or five times with DJ Moore added into this offense. I expect the pace of play and the volume to be from what it's been in the last couple of years, a sub-30 pass attempt quarterback, which is criminal given how good he is. The fact that he won the MVP of the NFL in 2024 despite not throwing the ball more than 30 pass attempts per game just shows how dominant of a fantasy quarterback he is. And the dominant rushing that Josh Allen possesses as well makes him a cheat code in fantasy, which is why he's been basically the quarterback one in fantasy off the board for like five straight years.

Lamar Jackson may be the highest quarterback ceiling in fantasy football land we've seen in 2019, in 2022, in 2024. If he slides, I can stomach taking him because of Declan Doyle's addition. I really like the chance that the Ravens become more pass-heavy this year because Declan Doyle is the youngest offensive coordinator in the NFL. He is just a year and a half older than the quarterback of the team at 30 years old. They could pass the ball instead of 48, 49% of the time, 55, 56% of the time because when you look at their offseason moves, they let Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar, their number two and three tight end, walk in free agency. They add a number two and number three receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Elijah Moore to go along with Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews that they already had. So, I really do like if Lamar Jackson slides in drafts, and I'll tell you guys why he needs to slide for me to take him. I don't mind him this year.

Drake May, he checks the talent box. As we know, he was second in MVP voting last year. He ran the ball at a significant level and the offense got better. They added Romeo Doubs and AJ Brown, both of whom would probably have been the number one receiver of the team last season. So, while everybody's going to do the whole, they had an easy schedule, they're going to regress. They might, but I don't think it's going to come in the passing game on offense because Drake May is obviously a great young quarterback who is set to take over the league for many years to come. And he has two major wide receiver upgrades to go along with everybody that they had last year pretty much returning. Hunter Henry at tight end. Uh, they drafted Eli Ricks in the third round who I really liked as a prospect. Kahan Booty, DeMario Douglas, and those guys. Plus, you have Trevon Henderson entering year two and some offensive line, you know, jelling that needed to take place with Will Campbell coming in as a rookie last season.

Jaden Daniels, here's the first guy that I look at in ADP and I think is overvalued. Jaden Daniels runs the ball and running the ball can solve all problems. He ran the ball eight times per game on average in his career. But beyond that, I'm kind of nervous because it's a bad wide receiver core as of now after Terry McLaurin. Let's see who they add in the veteran market. I expect them to either add like a Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, or Stefon Diggs. The injury history doesn't count for anything here, but it factors in in my head because I don't want to draft a quarterback, let's say in round five, uh, where Jaden Daniels is going in most redraft leagues and have him go down because that's really going to hurt you because you could have had a wide receiver, a running back, or a tight end in that area. And he also doesn't push the ball downfield a ton and he doesn't throw a ton. They haven't let him throw the ball like crazy and I don't think that's going to change this season because they don't have great receivers. So for me, I'm probably avoiding Jaden Daniels at cost. He is quarterback four or five off the board in ADP. He is my quarterback seven, quarterback eight. So I'm not really drafting a whole lot of him.

Joe Burrow, there's no boxes this guy doesn't check aside from him not being Lamar Jackson as a rusher. Elite pass volume, elite receivers, top three passer in football talent-wise. Slam dunk where he's going just because he's basically an MVP candidate anytime he's on the field.

Caleb Williams, no flaws, not one. He runs the ball well just like Drake May. He has the volume, the pace, the coaching and the weapons and the offensive line. All great, right? I love Luther Burton. I love, um, Rome Odunze and Cole Turner. If you are having a hard time deciding between which one of those guys to draft, the might the right answer might just be to draft the quarterback. So perhaps Caleb Williams' best strength is the amount he's pushing the ball downfield. In deep ball attempts per game last year, he was number two in the NFL. And a lot of people who are very smart with quarterbacks and schemes and that kind of thing, Kurt Warner being a good example of this, have talked about how much bigger of an improvement most quarterbacks are going to see going from year one of Ben Johnson to year two of Ben Johnson. Year one of Ben Johnson, Jared Goff, a veteran quarterback, wasn't all that good, but year two of Ben Johnson, they were one of the breakout offenses of that season. So, um, I do really like Caleb Williams where he is going as well.

Jaylen Hurts, dominant rushing production was muted last year. In Jaylen Hurts' rushing career as a starter, he's averaged 650 rushing attempts or rushing, sorry, rushing yards per season and 12 rushing touchdowns. Last season, career low in carries per game, he had just 421 rushing yards and he had just eight rushing touchdowns, which is the first time in his starting career that he's been under 10 rushing touchdowns. So, for me, I expect that to change this year. I think Kellen Moore's going to rely on his ground game a little bit more from Jaylen Hurts' perspective, and I expect them to open up the passing game a little bit. They drafted both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Yes, they lost A.J. Brown, but I do think they're going to pass the ball a little bit more with Saquon Barkley not being as dominant in 2025 as he was in 2024. It makes sense for them to go a little bit more pass-heavy and rely on Jaylen Hurts' legs.

And then the final guy of this tier is Dak Prescott. So predictable at this point. For the last five to seven years, we've known that he's going to sit between 18 fantasy points per game and 21, 22 fantasy points per game. It's really going to come as a result of his passing baseline. If CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, and the great passing weapons that they have are the best of Dak Prescott's career, then he's probably going to be closer to 21 points per game. If they're injured or not as productive, then he'll probably be closer to 18 points per game. But the one thing that is always true of Dak Prescott is that he's pretty much guaranteed to be a quarterback one anytime he is on the field. So, if you're not looking to miss on your quarterback pick, especially if you've drafted George Pickens or CeeDee Lamb already earlier in your draft, he makes a lot of sense as a stacking partner. And generally when it comes to stacking both in redraft, best ball, and superflex leagues, it's usually a good idea, especially when you've already spent a high pick on a player from a team. If you draft Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, one of those top-end receivers, getting their quarterback to stack up with them, especially if they come to you out of value in drafts, is almost always a good idea because you've already made the bet on that offense, on that player, uh, that receiver being a very good pick in fantasy. So if you stack them up with a quarterback, it's going to increase your chances of being a playoff team, being a championship-caliber team.

Moving into the next group of quarterbacks, quarterbacks 9 through 16, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, all the way through Jared Goff here. This is my favorite range of quarterbacks in fantasy drafts this year. The reason it's my favorite range of quarterbacks is actually dependent on the other positions because at this point in ADP, we're talking Justin Herbert goes off the board about round seven or so and then Jared Goff won't be off the board, especially in like sharper leagues, probably until round 10-plus. So, this is an area of the board where the wide receivers are starting to dry up. The running backs definitely have dried up already. So, punting quarterback early to take one in this territory is, in my opinion, I'll spoil it later when I talk about the strategy, the optimal play in in 2026 because you are not drafting, you know, opportunity bundles-wise, um, these guys over great wide receiver or running back projections. Whereas, if you take a Jaylen Hurts, if you take a Lamar Jackson, if you take a Josh Allen, you have to pass on better wide receivers and running backs, which are the more scarce positions in fantasy. When I'm strictly talking about those of you guys that are listening to this for one quarterback redraft leagues. In superflex and best ball, it's a little bit different, but in one quarterback redraft leagues, which I imagine the majority of you guys listening are playing in, that is where, um, you know, this territory of the quarterback range becomes very, very good.

Justin Herbert, there is not a single strike on his resume this year. He's got every bit the upside that he once possessed in 2021 when he was an elite fantasy quarterback. I expect with Mike McDaniel, the former Dolphins head coach, coming in as the offensive coordinator, Justin Herbert to have one of his most efficient seasons of his career. And I expect the pass volume, the pace of play, the uptempo to be better than what they had with Greg Roman. And the fact that they were down their two starting offensive tackles and a couple of guards last season. We've seen in those peak Tua Tagovailoa years that Mike McDaniel is not afraid to throw the football and the weapons are good. Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, and it's a pretty deep starting roster as well. I think that Justin Herbert's underrated part is that he ran the second most rushing yards of any quarterback last year. He ran for more rushing yards than Jaylen Hurts did. He ran over five times per game and 30 rushing yards per game last season. And that is something that I am very excited about with Justin Herbert. He is my highest-drafted quarterback on Underdog right now for that very reason. I also love his stacking partners. Again, if you take the swing on Ladd McConkey or Quentin Johnston in the rounds previous, you can grab Justin Herbert. If you're going to punt quarterback and tight end into oblivion, you can take both Justin Herbert and Josh Palmer to man those positions for you. So, he is one of my favorite quarterbacks period in drafts right now.

Trevor Lawrence also one of my favorite quarterbacks period in drafts. He doesn't have a strike on his resume either. Again, similar to what I said with, um, Caleb Williams, second year in Liam Cohen's system, maybe the best one through four wide receiver core in the NFL. I love Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, as you guys know, and, uh, Parker Washington and Christian Kirk are very good depth wide receivers on that team. They have solid tight ends. They have solid running backs. Trevor Lawrence last season post-bye for the Jacksonville Jaguars was a 22.9 fantasy point per game quarterback. One of the biggest league winners in all of fantasy. Only Josh Allen and only Brock Purdy averaged more fantasy points per game following the Jaguars bye. And I do think that Trevor Lawrence could easily have another step forward in his career, another breakout season from what he already did, finishing as a 20-point per game quarterback last season because again, he did that with no Travis Hunter on the field with Brian Thomas Jr. playing like So if Parker Washington, Christian Kirk are as good as some people think that they are, that's only going to make the offense better. And again, if you can't decide between the wide receivers or running backs, you might just want to take the quarterback and Trevor Lawrence.

Patrick Mahomes, the injury concern is not baked in here, but I did factor it into his rushing baseline because he has run the ball a decent amount the last couple of years. I think that the way that you approach Mahomes from a redraft standpoint is you draft a second quarterback later if you have to use that quarterback early on in the season. From a best ball standpoint, I would probably only draft Mahomes on three-quarterback builds because he could miss some time if he misses early in the season or if he has some compensatory injuries. I don't want to have to deal with that. So, three-quarterback builds is how I'm handling him. And then in superflex, I would definitely make sure to get a better third quarterback if I have Patrick Mahomes as well. But generally with Rice, with Kelce, with Worthy, I think he has pretty good weapons and I think he can be vintage Patrick Mahomes, assuming he's healthy.

Brock Purdy in his six games back from injury last year, he got injured earlier on the season and then he came back later on in the season. He was actually the quarterback one overall in points per game. in those six games with 23.5 fantasy points per game. The problem is that Brock Purdy still plays in a lower volume situation, but with Mike Evans coming in, Ricky Pearsall healthy and George Kittle hopefully being ready for week one, which it sounds like he's tracking to be. And of course, Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield, it's a really solid cast of weapons around him and he was very good last year despite not having very good weapons. It was pretty much just Kittle and McCaffrey last season. So, Brock Purdy definitely also one of my favorite late-round quarterbacks.

Jackson Dart. This is the first guy that I look at in this territory and I go, "Yeah, I'm probably fading him." I'm not super high on the John Harbaugh, Mike Macdonald duo that they brought in. I actually think Brian Daboll is a better coach and play caller, at least play caller, than what they're going to have this season. The Giants offense, if they're without Malik Nabers for the first four to six games of the season, which I think they will be based on the cleanup procedures he's having done and that kind of thing, they might have the worst receiver core in football without Malik Nabers out there. So Jackson Dart runs and that's great, but John Harbaugh likes to run the ball, too. And I do think that inside the five, inside the 10, they're going to rely on their running backs more than they did last season when Jackson Dart was able to pile up rushing touchdowns. And also, the volume and the tempo of the offense, I don't think is going to be there. I just think he seems a little bit overpriced. QB 13 isn't terrible, but when you factor in that he goes in the first eight to nine rounds of fantasy drafts when you can get Bo Nix, Jared Goff, and Kyler Murray types three to four rounds later, I would just rather take those guys at cost.

Matthew Stafford, as you can see there, lots of green in the passing projection. He has elite pass volume, elite receivers, elite offense, good offensive line. They throw the ball a ton in the red zone. The only concern that you can have for Matthew Stafford is that he's an absolute zero on the ground. He will not run the ball at all. So, he has to, has to throw 35 to 45 touchdowns. That's he has to do that. Last year, we saw him do it. He won the MVP before the season. I put a bet down that he would win the MVP. And last year when I did this video, I talked about him being the best value on the board. He is the perfect punt quarterback, especially if you just drafted Puka Nacua or Amon-Ra St. Brown because you just stack him up early on. Very, very easy. Um, but in home redraft leagues, maybe he'll be inflated because he won the MVP last season.

Bo Nix, been a top 12 fantasy quarterback in both of his first two seasons. Elite pass volume last year. Nobody seems to know that he threw the ball 612 times and a potential elite offense. I think that the Broncos could be very, very good this year, both on offense and on defense. They added Jaylen Wright, who is one of the more underrated receivers in fantasy drafts right now. And they have an elite offensive line. Um, fantasy points, PFF ranks them as the number one offensive line in pass protection in the NFL. They have elite pace of play. Tell me if this makes sense to you guys. The Denver Broncos, one of the best defenses in football last year, ran, uh, the ball very little and threw the ball like crazy. Why would they do that? They could have easily just run the clock out and, you know, generally relied on their defense, but they let Bo Nix, a second-year quarterback, lead them most of the time. So, one of my favorite picks on the board at quarterback for me. People forget that in year one and year two of an NFL career, you're not supposed to be much. So, the fact that Bo Nix has been a top 12 fantasy quarterback in the first two seasons of his career, and he's only entering year three, and they just added a proven number one wide receiver to the offense, plus Jonah Williams, who I like, Justin Jefferson, who I like, year two for Troy Franklin, who he obviously played in college with. like this is a very, very good fantasy quarterback bet where he's going because again, you can fill out your entire wide receiver core, your entire running back core, maybe get an elite tight end if you want and still get Nix as your quarterback. So if you haven't been able to tell so far, this is again, as I said last year, a great year to punt the quarterback position. Not that I'm reinventing the wheel. People have known about late-round quarterback for a while, but I'll talk about more about the strategy in a second.

Jared Goff, same thing as Matthew Stafford. He's such an easy pick because of the Lions projection. It's elite offense, elite pass-blocking offensive line, elite weapons, and they have an elite schedule. And again, too, if you have Amon-Ra St. Brown on your team already, if you have Jameson Williams on your team on your already, if you have Sam LaPorta on your team already, because you would have had to already draft those guys, you just stack him up with Jared Goff. It's super easy if you punt the quarterback position. And again, I think that Jared Goff, given the schedule that the Lions have this year, might have the best season of his career. I think he's an underrated MVP candidate this season because if they are throwing like crazy, if they are winning 12, 13 games because Jahmyr Gibbs is running like a bat out of hell, I think Jared Goff is going to be, you know, a top eight, six fantasy quarterback on the high end of things. And I think he could have his first 20-point per game season. A couple years ago, he was a 19 fantasy points per game quarterback, but basically an every-week starter at that point in time.

Moving into the next group of quarterbacks, and this is where things start to get a little bit hairy. Quarterbacks 17 through 24. These first couple guys I like, but then after that, I probably want to already have my fantasy quarterback, especially in one-quarterback redraft leagues. If you're playing superflex, I would probably want to have two quarterbacks, if not maybe even a third by this point in time. And then if you're in best ball, I definitely want at least two quarterbacks from this territory and up.

Kyler Murray of the Minnesota Vikings now runs, as we know, has a great wide receiver core, but is he still a good quarterback? That's the thing that a lot of people are questioning about Kyler Murray. But this is the thing that you need to know. The best indicator of future fantasy points is past fantasy points. And Kyler Murray is a two-time 20-plus point per game fantasy quarterback. A boom-or-bust swing for sure. We don't know if he's going to be vintage Kyler Murray anymore. But with Justin Jefferson to throw to, with Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba to throw to, I would say this is the best pick Kyler Murray has been in years because he's also the cheapest he's been in years. Cuz normally Kyler Murray's going off the board quarterback seven, quarterback eight, quarterback nine, something like that in ADP. And outside of last year when he got injured, he's been a QB1 in fantasy points per game every season of his career. And you can argue this is the best weapons group he's had since 2020, since 2021 when he had the prime DeAndre Hopkins year. So definitely a possibility that Kyler Murray smashes his ADP. Wouldn't totally shock me, especially in redraft leagues where there's no penalty for missing on a fantasy quarterback in round 10, 11. You could definitely take him as your starting quarterback. Maybe draft a safer guy later and be on your merry way with your punt quarterback there.

Jordan Love. This team loves to run the ball. So I would say that Jordan Love is the perfect second quarterback to pair with a guy like Kyler Murray or Patrick Mahomes because he's probably not going to be a bust. But I would also be shocked if Jordan Love had like a 20-point per game season. I think he's probably going to be somewhere between QB10 and QB18 by the end of the year because he's a good quarterback who plays for a good coach and a good team, but I don't think he has the requisite volume and upside to be a top five fantasy quarterback like we saw from him in 2023 when he was the quarterback six. I don't think he has that kind of upside with Romeo Doubs leaving. They don't really have a true number one in this situation and they don't throw the ball like crazy.

So Baker Mayfield, similar to Kyler Murray, I think he's somewhat boom-or-bust. We saw in 2024 finished as a top five fantasy quarterback. If Zac Robinson can be a good play caller, he had a 40 touchdown season just two years ago. So, it's a deep wide receiver core. It's one of the best one to fives in the league from Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer, Cade Otton, and Rachaad White. They have a very deep wide receiver core. They have two running backs who are primarily good receiving backs as well with Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. And then a solid tight end. Pre-injury, Baker Mayfield was an MVP candidate last year before he started getting hurt and before his receivers started getting hurt. He was playing at a very, very high level and an every-week starter in fantasy. So, Baker Mayfield, assuming things are better in Tampa Bay, the offensive line was banged up, the receivers were banged up, Baker himself was banged up, Bucky Irving missed time. Like, if they can just stay healthier, I think that Baker Mayfield could easily be an every-week starter and get back to 20-plus points per game like he was in 2024. But, it's all going to depend on the coaching as well and how Zac Robinson fits in there.

Tyler Shough is the first guy where I can say definitively I would want a quarterback on my team before I have to take Tyler Shough. Could he break out? Sure. He's in a fast-paced offense with a good coach and good receivers, but I don't want to rely on him in a quarterback one setting in redraft. In superflex leagues, maybe you could rely on him as your quarterback two, or whatever. I think best ball, he's definitely fine. He's a streaming quarterback. I think throughout the year in most one-quarterback redraft leagues, he'll be in and out of the waiver wire depending on his matchups. And that's not necessarily saying he can't be maybe more of an every-week starter if he breaks out. I just don't think he's going to be an every-week starter. When you do the math and you go, okay, in a 12-team league or a 10-team league, especially, nobody's going to want to rely on him as their starting quarterback. He's going to be in and out of the waiver wire for the most part because there's just 12 better options out there.

Malik Willis, I get that he runs, but he'll probably be really inconsistent because the Dolphins will stink and they'll probably have games and weeks where they score six points, no receivers whatsoever. I get the rushing upside, but it's gonna have to be dominant rushing upside for him to be an every-week starter at fantasy quarterback. Maybe he could Justin Fields his way into a good season, but I'm a little bit concerned that, uh, people who are just going to go, I'm going to punt quarterback and draft Malik Willis are assuming he's just going to be like a dominant rusher. And if the team is bad, I don't think he's going to be very good.

Cam Ward, again, he could break out just like Tyler Shough, but I'm not sold on it actually happening to a meaningful degree from a fantasy lens. Could he have a better season than he had as a rookie? Sure. But I don't think he'll be like a top 12 fantasy quarterback. I think he could be quarterback 19 in points per game and have a breakout season. I just don't think he has meaningful every-week starter upside.

Sam Darnold with an elite defense, low rushing, low red zone, and deep ball usage. I would say it's unlikely he's any better than he was last season, which was a matchup-dependent streamer. So, I'm not going to rely on him. Uh, C.J. Stroud, especially for Superflex, I think he's one of my favorite quarterback two values for best ball and superflex leagues. Uninteresting in one-quarterback redraft. Obviously, you'd want a better quarterback than this, but I do like the Texans to bounce back. And C.J. Stroud during the regular season before his horrible playoff run was actually playing pretty well. And with Nico Collins coming back, Tank Dell and John Metchie in year two, I like the receiver core that they have there.

Getting into the quarterback 25 through 32, again, I'm just going to breeze through these guys because other than best ball and superflex, they're not really relevant. The interesting guys here for me in best ball and superflex are Daniel Jones, who obviously I was all in on last year as a sleeper, streamer at the very least last year and at times he was an every starter for people. Uh, assuming he's healthy, he can run the ball and he has good weapons with the Indianapolis Colts. The offensive line's pretty good, but the injury is the issue there. Aaron Rodgers, I think, is a really solid quarterback three and best ball quarterback three and superflex because Mike McCarthy runs a lot of plays. And what did they do this offseason? They went traded for Michael Pittman. They drafted Jermaine Burton. They have, you know, Pat Freiermuth and some other tight ends, extended Darnell Washington. I think they're going to throw the ball a lot more than they did last year with Arthur Smith who never likes to throw the ball. So Aaron Rodgers not a terrible quarterback three option or a terrible superflex option. Uh, Tua Tagovailoa, if he can win the starting job for Atlanta and I expect him to, um, can definitely be interesting because he has good weapons to throw to. And then Jacoby Brissett for the Cardinals. However long he's the starting quarterback before they want to look at Carson Beck, I think he can be a streaming quarterback. Bryce Young, Fernando Mendoza, Geno Smith, Shedeur Sanders. I'm just not overly interested in these guys because the offenses that they are in are a little bit more run-heavy. So, I don't think you're going to want to take a shot on them.

So, let's look at the scorecard. Every year when I do this exercise, we're going to score the quarterbacks and it's going to highlight the good picks and highlight the bad picks. So, last year on the scorecard, we did very well. I mean, outside of our top 10, our highest scorers were Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Caleb Williams, Drake May, and Trevor Lawrence. Every one of those guys that I just mentioned, minus Jordan Love, was a quarterback one in fantasy on the season. And we hit on the breakouts of Drake May, of Caleb Williams, the big sleeper that Matthew Stafford was, and the deep sleeper that Daniel Jones was.

So, looking at this exercise this year, I've actually added a color to the scorecard to better differentiate the the high-end green guys from the lower-end green guys. So, the purple players are the best picks on the board based on their scorecard in this, in this video. So Josh Allen, Drake May, Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford, and Bo Nix. They should be your biggest targets. The green guys definitely targets, especially if they fall. The yellow guys also decent targets if they fall. The orange guys I'd be wary of. They're a little bit more boom-or-bust. And then the red guys I would probably just straight up avoid. Jackson Dart, Malik Willis, Cam Ward, Sam Darnold. Again, not that these guys can't be good. I just wouldn't bet on them because they are rather risky.

Here's the important part of this video, though. Quarterback strategy. This is what you guys clicked on to. If you skip ahead to this part, this is how you should handle the quarterback position in 2026. The this video series often culminates in my number one draft strategy video series that I do every year. Highest viewed video on the channel every August. The quarterback position isn't scarce in 2026. If you're not playing Superflex, you're playing a standard one-quarterback league PPR, ESPN Sleeper league with your buddies, everybody is going to have a good option at quarterback because there are more than 12 good starting quarterback options this season. And the thing that I wish I would have taken into account more in the Flock League last year, in the last two years, when I've drafted early-round quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, is it's much easier to sell high on a good wide receiver, running back, tight end in a sharp league when everybody has good starting quarterbacks in one-quarterback format. So again, you might think Josh Allen in the third round is a steal. Lamar Jackson in the fourth or fifth round is a steal. Joe Burrow in the sixth round is a steal. But to be honest with you, there's just no way I'm drafting a quarterback high this year unless they fall to a point where I'm like, I can't pass on this guy. The heat map that you guys can see on the scorecard just lights up like 17 good picks at quarterback this year in the first 20 of ADP. So do the math. If there's 12 teams in your league or 10 teams in your league for that matter, in a one-quarterback redraft setting, there's absolutely no rush to take your quarterback one off the board. The penalty for not having a quarterback in fantasy leagues this year, regular redraft leagues is next to zero. You will stream quarterbacks off the waiver wire, play matchups of Tyler Shough types and, you know, Baker Mayfield types. You'll get a waiver add early on in the season. Maybe it's a breakout player like Matthew Stafford was last season or Daniel Jones was last season and you'll be fine. I'm not breaking any news here. The late-round quarterback strategy is not new. It's something that everybody has known for a long time. But here's how to do it effectively in 2026 because I do believe late-round quarterback is the best strategy in 2026 drafts to handle the quarterback position. Make sure you are getting a quarterback probably Jared Goff and up. So while late-round quarterback is the optimal strategy, you don't want to take, you know, Cam Ward as your starting quarterback. You want a better quarterback one than that. Don't just take the first guy that falls in ADP. Like you might be on the board in the sixth round and go, man, Drake May is a really good value here. If he's falling, other quarterbacks later are going to fall even more. So again, you should only be addressing the quarterback position when you don't like the wide receiver, running back, and tight end picks on the board. If you take, you know, Amon-Ra St. Brown, just have it in the back of your mind that Jared Goff is your fail-safe. If you take, um, Jaylen Wright, have it in the back of your mind that Bo Nix is your fail-safe. You can just stack your late-round quarterback with whatever wide receiver, running back, or tight ends you're taking early on in your draft. Specifically, if you take an elite wide receiver talent like a CeeDee Lamb, like a Justin Jefferson, like an Amon-Ra St. Brown, like Puka Nacua, you can just have in the back of your mind you're going to have Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, or Kyler Murray on the board late. So, if your draft room, like I said, lets Drake May fall or Caleb Williams territory fall, it's likely an indicator that the Herbert, Lawrence, Mahomes, Purdy, Stafford, Nix, and Goff types will be even bigger fallers. If they should go in round 8, 9, 10 or 11 or whatever, they'll probably fall one to two rounds of ADP altogether. So, the best strategy at quarterback in 2026 is to get your anchor quarterback at value. At value. Again, I'm going to keep saying at value. It needs to be a sliding player for me to actually take a quarterback earlier than round seven to 10. When the running backs and wide receivers are dried up, and how you're going to know this is like the Tony Pollard's are off the board, the Chuba Hovers are off the board at running back. And the wide receivers that are best available are like Josh Downs and Jaxon Reed. That's where Herbert through Mayfield is going to go in ADP, which is why I'm targeting that territory. I will take Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, some of the guys Jared Goff that I've talked about already when there's no good wide receiver and running back projections that I like. It is the best strategy that you can follow at the quarterback position this year. I am totally fine too drafting two quarterbacks in managed redraft. Let's say you draft Patrick Mahomes in round nine and you take Baker Mayfield in round 13. Perfect strategy. If you have to play Baker right away, you can. If Patrick Mahomes is not healthy, otherwise you're going to roll with Patrick Mahomes. And if things don't work out, you're going to stream the waiver wire. Bo Nix, Kyler Murray. Good package to go with. You have a safe quarterback and an upside quarterback there. Stream matchups early on until you figure out who's reliable. Worst case scenario, you're going to cut bait and you're going to stream. In best ball formats where it does matter more to hit on your quarterbacks, I am definitely prioritizing three tight end builds over three quarterback builds this year. And the reason for that is because if I can get two guys in the first Baker Mayfield and up territory, I'm fine rolling with two quarterbacks. If you do a three-quarterback build, I think C.J. Stroud, Daniel Jones, uh, Aaron Rodgers, Jacoby Brissett, and Tua Tagovailoa are the good third quarterbacks to be drafting there. Last year, I was all over Daniel Jones as a third quarterback. This year, Stroud, Rodgers, Brissett, and Tua are the best options as third quarterbacks. And then in superflex redraft formats, it's simple. Just aim for two quarterbacks that are Justin Herbert to Baker Mayfield territory because a lot of your leaguemates are going to be drafting the Josh Allens, Jaylen Hurts guys early, but you can have elite wide receiver and running backs in superflex and just draft let's say Justin Herbert and Jared Goff as your top two quarterbacks and then tack on a C.J. Stroud or Aaron Rodgers late and be just fine in Superflex league.

So, as far as the question I posed at the beginning of this video, who is the next league-winning quarterback? The player on the thumbnail, as you guys might be seeing, is Bo Nix. He runs. He threw 612 times last year. And now he has Jaylen Wright. He has great coaching, good weapons, and great protection. He, in my opinion, is the best option on the board, period, at cost. I think you are getting him in round 10, round 11, most of your fantasy drafts. And he might end up being a top five fantasy quarterback this season because of what the Broncos represent. So, he is my favorite quarterback pick, period, on the board.

Justin Herbert, also one of my favorite quarterback picks on the board. He'd be my number two answer to that question. Mike McDaniel's a wizard. Has good weapons. O-line's healthy. Quietly ran 1.5 times more per game this year or this past year than in prior years. And I think the pace and the volume will be up. Like I said, Justin Herbert, my highest-drafted quarterback on Underdog right now.

Trevor Lawrence would be my third answer to that question. Year two, Liam Cohen, the best four-stack of wide receivers in the NFL and he runs the ball. Also, as far as who would be like the deep sleeper that breaks out and smashes, it's probably Kyler Murray because he has a history of doing it already. But if I had to go even deeper than that, I think C.J. Stroud could have a really nice season. Aaron Rodgers could have a really nice season or maybe even Tua Tagovailoa who once led the NFL in passing yards could have a breakout season for the Falcons. But again, unless you're playing best ball or Superflex, those guys are probably not relevant. And then honorable mentions to everybody in purple on the scorecard here. I really like, um, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield as punts. Like I said, those late-round guys are my favorite.

So again, all you really have to do is follow this, this, uh, this, uh, strategy here. Get a guy in purple or green and you should be fine. And again, I'm going to talk about tight ends next Saturday. I'm going to talk about wide receivers and running backs in the following Saturdays after that. And that's all going to culminate, plus the other videos that I do into the number one draft strategy video that will be coming out August 10th. So again, this is where we're in the trenches. We're doing the research. Everybody on YouTube is doing a number one strategy video nowadays. But remember who did that video first? It was me. And the reason I did it was all the research that I was doing in July and August, I was basically putting into one video so that casual redraft players would be able to watch it and come away with their takeaways to win their fantasy leagues. So that is, uh, you know, we're getting into the process of building towards that video, which is all the research that I'm going to be doing in the spreadsheets for the next couple of weeks.

So, if you guys enjoyed this video, leave a like down below. If you guys are casual redraft players just coming back to the scene, this is like the first redraft video you're watching. The season pass is now live. $34 to get all of our draft tools for the redraft season. You'll get our draft guide, our draft projections of all your favorite creators, not just me. And you will also get our draft assistance, which are brand new tools where you can integrate our fantasy rankings, expert rankings, my rankings, Danny's rankings into your Sleeper draft room, into your ESPN draft room, into your Yahoo draft room, and we'll be right there with you on your, uh, draft day. You can print it out, bring it to your draft. You can do a whole bunch of stuff with that draft assistant and that is available to you using the season pass. If you want our draft guides for free as well, you can get them by signing up on Underdog Fantasy. Use the promo code FANTASY at signup and first deposit and you will get $50 in bonus entries plus our draft guides for free once you've made your first entry on the site. Whether it's a pick entry or entering a draft within 24 hours and my cat is coming to join me at the end of this video. Um, you will get access to our draft guides for that. So, check that out. Both of those will be linked down below in the pinned comment. But with that being said, peace out and I'll talk to you soon.