Transcription
Based on the monthly reports, we see that Bitcoin has lived up to the adage: "Sell in May," as it lost 3% in 30 days. Yes, it's not minus 15 or 10%, as it was at the beginning of the year, but it's also not the +5 that the S&P 500 recorded. Despite the road, oil, and the ongoing war in Iran, which is driving inflation.
I can't say May was a terrible month for Bitcoin, since after all, it was in May that we broke through 80,000 and even attempted to consolidate above this key level. In my forecast for May, I said it would be a consolidation month, when the market would digest all the data, inflation, and the Middle East, and we wouldn't see any significant growth, and that's exactly what happened.
But now the next question: what about June? What awaits us this month, and what catalysts will influence crypto's movement? Yes, the key impact here is precisely on crypto, as stocks are soaring uncontrollably, ignoring any inflation reports or the zero chance of a FAS rate cut this year. But today in the video, I'll set the record straight and make a big forecast for Bitcoin and the crypto market for the entire month.
Today, we'll be discussing three key points: the war in Iran and the chances of it ending in June; Forest's first meeting with Kevin Worsh's new boss; and the anomalous stock market growth that's been ongoing for the second month in a row, pushing up take profits suggesting a bubble. And what's also interesting is that right now, thanks to Fanda's pumps, the US economy is only holding up at 10% of the American economy.
We'll also go over important dates and events, because in just seven days we'll have a meeting of OPEC+ countries, which, due to the current partial deficit, could rev up their drilling rigs to pump more oil and push down prices, as demand is currently very high. But most importantly, at the end, you'll find a technical analysis of Bitcoin, highlighting its key support and resistance levels and my monthly targets. I'll also discuss how Bitcoin will trade in June and what level it could potentially close out the first month of summer.
So, friends, without further ado, before watching, please give the video a like. 1,000 likes and there will be a new video about poplars for the second half of the year. Also, please leave your comments. This viewer gets a $10 bonus for comments. And with you, Vlad. Here we go.
So, friends, let's start with the Middle East. I understand that countries are a bit tired of this topic, but you are precisely what influences oil, capital flows, and, consequently, crypto. As of today, that same Trump-era BGIL hasn't yet arrived. I wrote on our Telegram channel that Trump rolled out a list of conditions in which only the United States stands to benefit, after which Iran once again called such conditions unacceptable. Result: oil prices soared. Just in case, I post all important news, morning reports, announcements, and my market opinions on Telegram. Therefore, for anyone who wants to stay up-to-date with current information and profit from it, the link is in the description.
The war in Iran has now descended into a stalemate with elements of targeted escalation, particularly in the maritime zone around the Strait of Armuz. The two sides are unable to reach an agreement because the price of compromise is too high for either side. For Tehran, any retreat would mean a loss of face and, possibly, internal destabilization. And for the Western coalition, retreat would mean admitting their inability to control key logistics routes, which is unthinkable for a power that aspires to global leadership.
Throughout June, the US Navy and its allies, judging by leaks from defense departments, will conduct a large-scale operation to ensure shipping security, protecting the waters, demonstrating a military presence, and attempting to dislodge Iranian proxies from key points. But the only thing that could make any difference here is a sixty-day pause. US and Iranian negotiators have tentatively agreed to a sixty-day memorandum. This is a pause of sorts, allowing for continued negotiations on the nuclear program and the terms of the Strait of Armut. But there is no final, official agreement yet. According to media reports, Trump has yet to give official approval, and Iran has not directly confirmed that everything has been agreed upon.
Personally, I think there is a chance for this pause because it benefits everyone. The pause benefits the US because open conflict puts pressure on oil, inflation, bond yields, and the stock market through the Strait of Armut. Trump now needs to show that he hasn't just started He used force, but achieved a deal. A pause is beneficial for Iran because it could provide a respite, a partial relief of pressure, a restoration of oil exports, and time to negotiate the terms of the nuclear program. But, as you understand, there are major disagreements in this deal, which will take time to resolve.
The most important thing for the markets is that there is no escalation and that oil prices don't rise. Falls aren't so important here. The most important thing is that they don't rise. And if we can sustainably consolidate below $100, that will be good news for crypto. Nevertheless, friends, Trump is Trump, so we'll keep an eye on all of this.
Next, let's talk about something you can't miss: the rise of Fanda. Consider these statistics. Currently, only 10% of Americans effectively hold the US economy together. About 28 million people provide 49% of all consumer spending in the country. Meanwhile, the remaining 221 million Americans account for only 37% of spending. This is the highest concentration of consumption in US history. And the main risk is that these 10% are directly tied to the stock market. Every 1% rise in the stock market increases consumer spending by approximately 0.05%. And this year, markets have already grown at double-digit rates. It turns out that the entire US consumer economy is increasingly dependent on the daily closing price of the S&P 500.
The bottom 80% of the population can barely support consumption growth. US household debt has exceeded $18 trillion. Credit card balances have reached a record $1.2 trillion. Low-income people are increasingly taking out loans not to buy luxuries, but simply to cover basic expenses. By the way, there will soon be a new video on the topic of loans on my second channel, Code Money, so subscribe. And all this is happening against a backdrop of prices being approximately 25% higher than in 2020.
Deloitte predicts that if the stock market corrects by 10%, real consumer spending growth could slow to 0.2% next year and fall by 1% in 2028. And that's the main problem. The 28 million people who support the US economy today are themselves completely dependent on market funds. The US economy has never been so dependent on such a small number of people. And these people have never been so dependent on the value of their assets.
Now the fund is growing because corporations are stupidly pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into buybacks. Companies are taking profits from the rapidly growing EI sector, and using some of the money to buy back their shares, which is causing that very growth. Despite what's happening in the economy now, Bitcoin, and almost all altcoins, don't have such a mechanism. And the crypto market is 100% dependent on a direct influx of liquidity. And what's happening with it now? That's right, it's declining.
What 's happening with stocks is a loop, and it can spin in both directions. While the market is growing, the elite gets rich and spends, creating a semblance of stability. But should the market falter, the downward spiral will kick in with the same force as the upward one. That's why I believe the authorities will do absolutely everything to keep the S&P 500 afloat, even if it means turning a blind eye to inflation, manipulating statistics, or turning on the printing press. And in that case, yes, crypto could become a second target for those same funds if even a few billion dollars of excess liquidity, mostly gold, has entered the market. Yes, this isn't a one-month story, but there's a chance to create potential conditions for the crypto market in the second half of the year, especially with the support of Kavin Warsh, which we'll discuss now.
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Now let's look at the key event of June, namely, the first Fed meeting chaired by Warsh. Warsh, in response to his predecessors, thinks differently. He doesn't simply look at inflation figures and mechanically tweak the rate up and down, as did former Fed chairs who operated under the paradigm of fighting inflation at all costs. He has his own, quite interesting and, it must be said, in places very convincing theory.
He argues that we have entered an era when artificial intelligence is becoming a structural disinflationary factor. It sounds complicated, but the logic is actually simple. Almost like in the 1990s, when Alan Greenspin recognized a manufacturing boom amid the development of the internet and personal computers and decided not to strangle the economy with high rates, even though he was advised to act more aggressively. Rinspin back then bet that technology itself would reduce costs, improve efficiency , and keep inflation under control. And he was right, which ultimately led to a multi-year bull market that went down in history as one of the greatest growth periods. If crypto had been around back then, it would have soared even faster than during the al-seasons.
Well, WH is making exactly the same bet today, only instead of the internet, he's using artificial intelligence, which, in his view, is capable of revolutionizing labor productivity so fundamentally that inflationary pressure will naturally ease without the need to drive the economy into recession by raising rates. And you know, there's something special about this, because when companies implement EI en masse, they actually cut costs, optimize logistics, and automate processes. And in theory, this should lead to lower prices for final products. At least in the long term.
The problem is, we don't know the time horizons. We don't know how quickly this effect will manifest itself in the real economy. And there's a risk that inflation from the colossal demand for energy, chips, and AI infrastructure will exceed the deflationary effect of increased production in the short term. Then this whole beautiful theory will be shattered by harsh reality, as has happened with other theories. And June 17th will be the day of truth for this. On that day, he will hold his full meeting as head of the Forest Fund.
The market is currently pricing in a 0% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year. Absolutely zero. And this means investors don't believe in policy easing at all. But Warsch doesn't need to cut rates to change the rules of the game. He only needs to change his rhetoric. He needs to hint that the Fed no longer considers reaching 2% inflation a prerequisite for easing. What if AI truly creates structural disinflation, then we can allow the economy to accelerate without fear of overheating?
One such statement, one such phrase along the lines of: "We see signs of technological progress that are creating disinflationary pressures stronger than our models predicted, and the market will immediately re-evaluate all probabilities. This could trigger a massive capital outflow from risk-free assets into stocks and, of course, Into crypto. But if inflation continues to rise, and OR continues to talk bluntly about the Fed, ignoring the actual figures, the market may decide the Fed has lost touch with reality, and then a sell-off will begin amid a loss of confidence.
And there's always the bureaucratic fallback option. If inflation is stubborn, you can always simply change the calculation methodology, as has been done many times, and pretend inflation has declined. It's cynical, but it works. And experience shows that political pressure on the Statistics Agency increases exponentially during election years. Moreover, friends, let's not forget who's in the White House now and how they love to manipulate numbers, data, and statistics. Just in case, I'll try to make a separate video before the Forest meeting on the 17th . Also, of course, we'll be monitoring inflation in June, the data for which we'll receive on the 10th. I think the data will jump to 4%, for sure. But the most important thing is that it doesn't go any higher.
Another important event: the June 7 OPEC meeting is a crucial one for oil, as oil has become one of the main inflation triggers this year. If oil prices rise, gasoline, logistics, transportation, production, and delivery of goods become more expensive. Over time, this begins to put pressure on inflation. And if inflation accelerates again, the Fed finds it harder to maintain interest rates. There's a simple chain at work here. Higher oil prices mean higher inflation. Higher inflation means tighter Fed rates. Tighter Fed rates mean higher bond yields, which puts pressure on stocks, NASTACK, the SNP 500, and cryptocurrencies.
If OPEC signals a real increase in production, oil prices will, of course, fall. And that's a positive for the markets. But there's a catch. It's not just what OPEC announces that matters, but whether this oil will actually reach the market. If problems with the Strait of Armuz, as well as logistics and tanker insurance, persist, the production increase may remain just a figure on paper. In this case, oil prices may rise again rather than fall, and then the market will quickly return to fears of a second wave of inflation. This will be negative for crypto stocks. Therefore, on June 7, we will be looking not only at the decision announced by OP+ but also at the reaction of oil prices. If oil prices fall, this will be positive for the markets.
Also on June 17, we will receive an oil market report. The IEA Oil Market Port report will be released. It is important for understanding the oil surplus deficit, supply restoration, and the consequences of the conflict around Iran and Armuz. Also on June 24 and 25, data on international transactions, GDP, corporate profits, and the US inflation report, which is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, will be released. On the same day, the third estimate of US GDP for the first quarter and corporate profits will be released. This is an important block for understanding whether the economy is truly strong or is supported solely by the stock market and wealthy consumers. For the most part, everything revolves around inflation and oil.
The market is currently trading on the hope of a deal and the restoration of supplies through the Armuz. Oil prices fell sharply in May on expectations of a US-Iran agreement. If secret consultations begin in Oman or another neutral point, rumors of them will begin to leak out precisely at the end of June. This could sharply collapse the war premium in oil, and cheap oil is a good factor.
And now let's talk in more detail about Bitcoin itself, namely its movement, capital inflows, and potential targets for the month. A very important liquidity zone is currently forming around 70,000. According to the order book, more than half a billion dollars of buy orders are in the range from 72 to 70,000. This means buyers are already setting limit orders in advance and preparing to buy back a possible decline. According to CoinGlass, there are approximately 6,235 bitcoins in liquidity in this zone. At current prices, that's roughly $443 million. The largest cluster is just above 70,000, meaning that if the price moves toward that zone, strong demand could emerge there, which could slow the decline and trigger a rebound.
Below 70,000, the next significant demand zone is around 68,500. There are more than 1,000 bitcoins there, or roughly $69 million. But below that level, the glass gets noticeably thinner. This means that if Bitcoin breaks below 70,000 and 68.5, the decline could be much sharper. Meanwhile, the liquidation heat map reveals an interesting picture. Around 70,000, about $2 billion in longs are at risk, while above that, around 78,000, more than $5 billion in shorts. Therefore, if Bitcoin first gathers liquidity near 70,000 and then begins a rebound, this could trigger a move back toward the short liquidation zones.
Technically, Bitcoin's daily trend has weakened. After losing support near 74,800, the price has begun to form lower highs and lows. Locally, Bitcoin is currently trading within a downward trend and is testing the lower part of the range in the 72-73,000 region. The RSI has dropped to 33, its lowest level in recent months. On the one hand, this indicates weakness and sellers' control. On the other hand, the market is already becoming locally oversold, meaning a rebound attempt may occur in the 72,000 zone.
The options market also shows that participants are keeping a close eye on the 70,000 level. During the latest decline, traders actively bought punctures with a strike price of 70,000. This means that large investors are hedging their bets against a possible fall to this zone. Incidentally, there's a good opportunity now to buy a call with a strike price of 70,000 and expiration before the end of the month. You can learn more about options trading at Coin 22 Option.
But more broadly, Bitcoin has been trading within an ascending channel since February. In early May, it failed to break through resistance near 82,000, after which the price declined to test the channel's ascending line near 72,000. I think June could be the month of another attempt to break out of this range, especially if oil remains below $100, or better yet, below $90. Because the lower the oil price, the less pressure on inflation.
But for Bitcoin to grow, it needs more than just cheap oil; it needs capital return through the ITF. Cryptocurrencies have been steadily losing money in recent weeks, and until this trend reverses, Bitcoin will struggle to gain a foothold above $80,000. My baseline scenario is this: if oil doesn't rise above $100, inflation doesn't spike again, and inflows begin to recover, Bitcoin could return to the $80,000-$83,000 range. Next comes the key level, a local high, around $84,000. From there, it will be clear where the market will go next.
The downside scenario is that if oil begins to rise sharply again and inflation rises above 4%, then a test of support at $70,000 is almost guaranteed. And as we just discussed, if this level fails to hold, the next support level is the 68,500 range. Bitcoin's historical low is neither its strongest nor its weakest month, so I don't expect any guaranteed explosive growth, but I also don't think the market will fall. Most likely, Bitcoin will try to return to the 80-83,000 range again, test the 84,000 area, and then show some signs of growth if there's liquidity to continue. Therefore, I think there will be local growth in May, with local highs being tested. By the end of the month, Bitcoin will pull back and could potentially close the month above 78 and 80,000.
All of this will, of course, be influenced by inflation, oil prices, US-Iran negotiations, OPEC meetings, and capital inflows. And I will, of course, post all this important information on my Telegram channel. So, friends, subscribe, write your Bitcoin forecast for June in the comments, ask questions, support the video with a like, and see you in the next video, friends. Thanks everyone for watching. See you soon.