Transcription
Good news for Tesla. The stock is up and SpaceX down 7.8%. And today is actually the day where I decided to go a little harder on my tactical short thesis on SpaceX. And as you probably know, if you follow this channel, I'm one of the biggest and earliest fans, at least in the public space, of SpaceX. I think it's a tremendous, tremendous stock. I think it's a tremendous company and I do think SpaceX is actually fundamentally undervalued at this price.
But I also know that the vast majority of investors both institutions and retail as well as analysts have no idea what this company is really all about. And that is why I believe my thesis on SpaceX that this is the most important company that the cash flow will start earlier than people think operating income will be bigger than people think and sooner will actually not be recognized all the way to end of 2027 and therefore this stock will be valued through benchmarking through revenue multiples through operating income multiples with its peers.
Now, no one is so dumb anymore to think the peers of SpaceX are Boeing and these people. Everyone understands the peers of SpaceX are Tesla anthropic open AAI. But even with these very high-flying stocks, including Palanteer by by the way too, Palanteer, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Tesla, these are the comps for SpaceX. But even with these very highly valued comps, SpaceX is in a league of its own in a bad way. SpaceX is overvalued based on these multiples by a large margin. I did the math on it and explained to everyone if you apply Tesla's revenue multiple of 13x revenue, SpaceX, if valued the same way we value Tesla based on revenue, would be a $35 stock. So even if you believe that SpaceX is has greater modes than Tesla, more momentum than Tesla, all kinds of things better than Tesla and let's say it's twice as good as Tesla in relative terms, the stock should be at $70.
So, in order to justify $150 stock price as now, you would need a totally new model of future reality that I happen to have and I think it's undervalued, but I'm also very sure this stock will not keep its price where it is and I went a little short already. Uh, of course, it went great, but it was insignificant compared to my portfolio. Uh, I have also this thesis, which is not really a thesis. It's uh it's safe to say that this is true. Uh where we see all the unlocks coming and we have to understand that the current float is only 5% of the stocks. So at IPO we listed 5% of SpaceX stock in the market. 95% are not even in the market. We have some more buying pressure coming in with more index inclusions and all kinds of stuff. But we have to understand that up to 60%. So, we are going from 5% float to 60% float. 60% of the shares being able to be sold in November, November 9th, maybe December. That is crazy when you think about it. And August 21st is the first big dump of these locked up stocks. So, these are basically the stocks that are currently locked up. the people who didn't go in at IPO but the employees and the early investors and all these people they have a lock up periods before they allowed to sell and that is happening now by the way today we are also in the phase where people at IPO can now sell the stocks without penalty so that's why we are probably seeing a drop uh we have to understand the stock got a little overhyped the stock is just over valued by any conventional benchmarks even when compared against unconventional peers like anthropic OpenAI, Palanteer, and Tesla.
So, I see just bad news, especially on a technical level for SpaceX coming. Even if you believe this is the most amazing company ever, which I do, there's just too much selling pressure coming in here to hold the stock up here at this valuation. So, I was waiting before going more short because I have respect for going short. Uh here Battleland says you just made the ultimate sin. I know I know. Um so uh yes it's the ultimate sin. I understand there are many fans out there that who don't like to see that. If I would ever short Tesla I would get murdered. But Tesla has a much bigger fan base on the stock side than SpaceX. SpaceX is still new and people understand I'm a big supporter and will load up on SpaceX like crazy when the time is right.
So what am I doing? I am not shorting the stock by the way. I never short stocks. I am going short call options. So I keep my uh distance to the current stock price. I'm short now monthly 180 calls that pay you a lot of money. It's pretty shocking. Uh still a small position because I understand there is risk. They will probably pull some rabbits out of the hat. Uh I have a little doubt that we see some colossus three coming or something like that which is pretty big news. The problem is all the revenue in the world all the profit in the world will have a hard time keeping the stock up here. This is just that simple. So we have to be cautious. The stock could rally to 200 or something which make would make my position a losing position but it's like tiny losses. Who cares? So, I'm now ratcheting up the pressure even before August, but I'm I don't want to lose out too much, right? If this goes down more before August and then drops more, I don't want to be left standing in the rain. So, I'm now dialing up this cautiously. I have always respect the stock can jump to 200 or something in between, but if it does so and incur some losses on my side, it's just total double downtime. So I will actually gain more in the long run in that scenario than right now. So that's how I think about these things. If you have a thesis, you have to think in scenarios. If I go short now, short calls now and I'm wrong very short term and the stock goes against me up to 200, I'm losing a little bit of money, uh, so I'm losing the premium I'm I get there is probably seven bucks. So, I would lose if it goes to 200 by then, by expiration, I'm losing like 120% or something on the premium. Not a big deal. Uh, but it allows me then to really double down and go bigger in. If it stays where it is or goes down more, at least I'm capturing that and then can zero in. So, in my opinion, I have a much better feel now for the stock. It's always good to observe it a little bit, you know, when you zoom out and see what it did here. That was totally ridiculous. That's where I put on my first short. But this was a extremely cautious short. 250 call options expiring tomorrow. So I'm collecting on them. But that was just minute. It was like 0.9% of my portfolio probably at alpha. Uh then it dropped down here and had a little recovery. So we get a first feel in that phase pre- August where the stock wants to be roughly right. It wants to be around above 150. It has a hard time closing in on 180 maybe 170. It was hard rejected here. So I think that's what we are dealing with and we will have a general downtrend from here. The bottom of the stock when all this is said and done I can absolutely not predict right absolutely not. I don't know if the bottom is 140, 135, 100, 90, 70, 50. I have no idea. So, I told everyone I'm not betting on a specific price target where I start accumulating the stock in earnest for a long-term core position that will become extremely big, by the way. Uh, but I can tell you that I do not think that my accumulation will start before November because the selling pressure is just too high. It's just a total no-brainer. Plus, the huge catalysts, the real catalysts that will surprise to the upside for SpaceX won't come this year. They won't potentially won't even come in H1 in the first half of next year. They will come in the second half of next year. And that's a beautiful timing for this whole thing because people will get very frustrated with SpaceX potentially. They will abandon it. There will be FUD. There will be panic. There will be frustration. And that will probably peak right around the time when SpaceX really finds its mojo and will provide us with a bunch of enormous economic miracles. So I see a beautiful beautiful scenario playing playing out here where I can short it, benefit from the drop, wait a little to have it bottom out, see fear, desperation, panic and rage spread and when everyone cries, Joe buys. You know my theory. So that is my plan, my game plan. So it's short time and we will see what happens.
Now the other side of this beautiful trade of course is Tesla and you know I was very long Tesla but you also know I got slaughtered in June. I had a very bad June. I have a very good July so far and end of June because I knew down here this was ridiculous this whole situation. I knew it. I told you guys and I bought a bunch of short-term calls right at 370. I got a little lucky this time on timing, but it was also pretty clear that this is not sustainable. I got out of them at 300 or something uh 410. So, I missed out on that run, but I'm very heavily heavily short put at this point. Um I'm getting a little cautious now. We don't know what the deliveries will say. There's probably a sell the news effect. We know that the deliveries for Tesla will be amazing. There is speculation now which is a little over the top in my opinion. There is a little speculation now that uh so Troy Teslike says 466,000 versus analyst consensus 46,000 and uh so there is general consensus more and more or whisper consensus that we are talking about something much bigger. uh who knows what it is but obviously Tesla is recovering very strongly. Deutsche Bank also said Tesla Q2 vehicle deliveries tracking above consensus expectations. Uh here the great Py says also boom boom. Oh no what what does he say? 482,000. So there's all these here there's PY overview. Uh so even Gary Black says 420,000. PY says 425,000. Troy Tesla says 466,000. Future Raza says 431,000. So you see where this is going. You know, if we come in at 425, 430, 431, I think the stock is probably selling off tomorrow. That's a sell the news thing because it's priced and that we beat maybe, but not big selloff. If we come in at 482,000, we might see a little bit more railing. But from a technical perspective, uh, you know, I love seeing Tesla up. I love making tons of money. This is all great, but we also need to put our rational little hats on and see. Okay, we got a crazy bounce, a crazy bounce here, very aggressive bounce even on a six month level. This is a very significant bounce here. And you know, we saw some rejection before here in the where was this? in the 410 area, 415 area, we saw huge rejections multiple times at 440 and we getting really getting there. So I think I'm not in extreme concern mode, but I think we are now closing in on a little breather. I think this could really up to 440 this week could happen 435. But I would buckle in and prepare for a drop. It's just time for a drop again. uh on a very tactical level this was a delivery boost. It was very clear that this entire boost is because of deliveries and the market recovering of course and Iran being officially over. So that is what's happening. We need to prepare on a weekly level for a potential pullback in my opinion. Uh and then for a slow drip down again I was warning about this unless cyber cap shows some movement. So you know my thesis that yes market recovering we are going up from here with deliveries and everything but the general trend for Tesla the general trend for Tesla unless we see extreme cyber cap action or a real cyber cap action is down okay because the stock is now in waiting mode where are the cyber caps so the general trend is down as long as we don't see cyber cap happen and what pushes it up are cyber cap news now How much cyber cap news to keep it flat and prevent it from going down? Is it enough to see all these cyber caps accumulating? Is it enough to see last Moravi getting interviewed by Herbert and saying some very interesting things? Probably it's enough to keep it here and not let it drop too much as long as we see a lot of momentum. But it can drop back to 410. Um the thing is at any moment now the entire equation can shift to what I predicted for a long time that has to happen at some point and increasingly becomes inevitable that is cybercap deployment. So while the general trend will be down or sideways for Tesla as long as this doesn't happen at the millisecond it does happen we go to 490 we go potentially above 500 and if we see multiple hundreds of cyber caps and complete scaling of course then we see a repricing I don't think that's going to happen right now but going to 490 or 500 will happen in absolutely no time in two three days once we see cyber cap that is what I believe that turns the entire I think into a weight game for cyber cap. When will that happen? But I tell you, ooh, it's looking like, you know, you know what I'm saying? It looks like this is inevitable. We have the long weekend now. Very important 250 years, uh, independence day, founding of the United States. So, this is a very big celebration. Uh, who knows? I don't think Tesla is going to launch because of that. But we see now a lot of things happening. We see of course the first production cyber cap. The first production cyber cap. Oh, now I get complaints about the sound again. Uh, so here you see an actual production cyber cap. Look at this. No controls. This is the future. No controls, no steering wheel, only the safety monitor and engineering vehicle. I mean, look at this. This is the freaking future. And this is a production cyber cap. This is happening now. So yeah, maybe we have to wait another month, maybe another two months. I just don't think so. Let's see what happens. So I am preparing for a little breather in Tesla. Let's prepare for maybe some pullback, but let's also prepare for this thing gearing up for a run to all-time highs. Okay, let's see how many people I made mad about the short thesis. Should we get uh maybe while we discuss the chat? Should we put on some SpaceX visuals here? Let's put up the SpaceX IPO deck. My favorite to see some cool cool slides while we discuss the future. SpaceX. Beautiful. Here. Which one do we like most? This is very nice. Oh, let's put the AI satellite up. AI satellites. Where is my favorite picture? The future of humanity. satellite constellation, but they have somewhere the compute AI business here. Boom. There, there we have it. Let's put this here and then make it full screen and then we can go into the discussion and see what you guys think about this whole operation. Yes, this is nice. Let's make it like this. Okay, now we have a nice visual. Okay, Aonda, hi everyone. Let's go. Joe, I'm here live. Great Bri Bri man, you just made the ultimate sin. Better lens. Exactly. I'm get slaughtered. People will hate me. Buying puts is not really shorting by the way. I'm selling calls, which is technically shorting calls. Unlock will drop the price. Australian crypto koala. That's a great name. Australian crypto koala. That is fun. Kim Joe like your commentary regarding robo taxi. I haven't seen any hard evidence of service centers. Have you? Yes, there was a service center evidence in Dallas. So, robo taxi service center Dallas. They bought they bought a big piece of property. Um, and that was very interesting. Yeah. Here I can I can show you here. Tesla launches Robbo taxi service. Oh, service, not service centers. Uh, let me see if I can find this. But there is definitely evidence for buildout of real buildings. Robo taxi service center in Dallas. I think I saw Dis cyber caps here. We see it here. Let me see. This is just accumulating them. I mean, you also see all these giant parking lots, you know. I don't know if they're service centers. Uh, but I mean, what do you even have to do? You have to uh you have to charge them. Um, that's what you need to do. Yeah, I can't find it right now. I saw this big building that they bought a car wash, submitted plans for a car wash. Well, that's not here yet. Um, no I can't find it right now. What will the stock price of combined company after Titl and SpaceX merges? That's not right now the discussion. This will take some time. Um, Tesla Autonomy UK says, uh, let's hope you mute the YouTube videos this time. Bought the dip on Tesla last week. 379 1,035 shares now. Very good job. Interesting play on all the merger talk is a bull spread with calls 400 600 for example. If a deal comes through at low ball offer then the short leg goes to zero while the long leg retains profitable. Yeah, that is a possible play. Tesla has much upside. I won't touch SpaceX until it comes under 100. Australian crypto koala. Well, I'm not I don't put a price tag on it. If we end up at 125 and bottoming out there in December, I'm going to buy 500 by the end of this month. Joe, if I'm wrong, I will send you a bottle. Veno, Australian wine. Um, Penrose. No, what is it? The Australian wine. There's some very good wine. Tesla Autonomy UK says cyber cap deployment next week, Tuesday. It could be. It's actually very tricky for me to position myself because between the pullback potential and the cyber cap launch potential, it's difficult to decide. I definitely will be short puts also in the money to some extent to create a synthetic position of at least 100% of portfolio in Tesla. That needs to be my default. But I was much more than that in June and was bad. Of course, I was able to manage my way out of it, but was extremely stressful in the recovery. I had extreme recovery but also had extreme losses was very exhausting. Um, but I will definitely be more than 100% long Tesla in July and then tactically sell more puts out of the money. Uh, I'm hoping we get a couple thousand cyber caps by the end of the year. I do think once you exceed a thousand you can very quickly get to 10 or 20,000. So, I don't know if my prognosis of 15,000 by end of the year will become true or not. But if not, and we are at 4,000, it's going to be probably true two months later. Easily 10,000 by end of the year. Well, Tesla Autonomy UK, that's what I am saying. But it's dependent on this stuff really getting to a thousand cyber caps at least four months previously before the end. So by August, if we have a thousand by August, we will definitely have over 10,000 by end of the year. But if not, I don't know. Uh Paul Davis says, "So I assume you feel it's too risky to put on any out of the money covered calls, short duration." What do you mean covered calls? You You mean selling covered calls? um for Tesla. Yeah, I think that's not worth it right now. I mean, right now I mean I think it's going to slide down. You would make money on these unless it scales, but then you get screwed. That's the problem. Will there be a Raptor 4? I don't know. Your mic volume is low. I know. I can't solve the the mic volume problem because some people say it's fine. Uh, I watched my videos when they're recorded the live and they're slightly below the volume below the my regular recordings, but it's a little hard to find tune this because it's unclear. Malls are empty at night. Uh, why malls are empty at night? I don't understand the context here. Uh, should we see if cyber cap news? Cyber cap. Uh, Briman, hi. Hi, Joe. Any news on your bonds being available in the UK for regular investors? Uh, we were delayed on the European bonds. Very annoying. But, uh, this is just Luxembourg attorney speed. Um, we should have everything together now. Uh, are you in touch with SARI? You should be in touch with Sari. Uh, you should definitely have an account on pioneeralpha.org where the bonds are. If you have an account there, you can get in touch with Sari. You should be in touch with Sari and she can tell you the latest because this is definitely happening now. So, I definitely you should definitely be on Pioneer Alpha, create an account and uh and uh ask Sari. I will tell her Tesla granny. Hi Joe. Tesla will be good soon. I have SpaceX 2 but only a small amount compared to my Tesla. I mean Steven Mr. he published something. He bought SpaceX. He has 1.5% of his portfolio in SpaceX and he has uh 98.5% in in in Tesla. I also have 10 10 stocks of SpaceX by the way. I have them as tracker stocks. I like in my portfolio to have a pos I never like positions of one stock that irritates me. So I have 10 and I just use them as tracker stocks. So they don't do much to the portfolio but uh that's good. Tesla Autonomy UK is asking what else is happening Tuesday. Last said large scaling on Jeff interview. Yes, Jeff and Herbert interviewed Lars head of engineering. Great interview uh for Tesla geeks at least. And last said there's something big happening on scaling but I think I don't know I don't think that will be like a huge catalyst because maybe it's Optimus build out or something but these manufacturing buildouts don't are of no interest to Wall Street in my opinion. Is it good bet to pick up more shares for tomorrow delivery report or wait Monday until Tuesday surprise? No. I would definitely pick up shares now because even if this thing drops back to 410, who cares? Then you can pick up more. And I think no one cares about these tiny little things. I think now is the time to load up on Tesla. Uh Janice, does Tesla need service centers up and running in the cities before Cyber Caps will be launched? Hope they will catch up while Cyber Cap's in testing. Um, well, I would not assume like how do we know they don't have the service centers? It's very hard to track that. I mean, you know, who knows where Tesla sets up service centers. Um, you know, I I don't think I don't think this is a problem at all. I think they can set them up within two weeks from nothing if needed. So I would not assume service centers are in any way a obstacle or indication. Do you ever sell covered puts? Covered puts not cash secured calls. Covered puts. Covered puts only sell covered puts. This is very confusing. You if you are a short if you are a short fund, you would have covered puts. So I don't do that. Um for me when I do any kind of when I do any kind of option trade for me it's a purely synthetic instrument. I never think about covered or not covered or naked or not naked. For me it's always naked. This these are naked trades. Uh there can be spreads but uh they have to be spreads in most instances but I consider spreads also naked because the spreads are so far out that I will just lose a lot of money if this goes against me. Crosby just tuning in. Joe, can you give a quick recap of why you titled this video that way? Because I'm going short through out of the money naked call spreads on SpaceX because I think SpaceX is not in good shape in terms of stock price on a six months basis. And I'm I'm strategically doubling down on Tesla. Are you related to Mark Wahberg? No, but I had an office right next to his office in Santa Monica for quite a while. Uh, no, I'm not related. Uh, some guy from Africa. Are you from South Africa? Probably. South Africa is an interesting market for Joe's channel. for my channel. We have actually a relatively high number of viewers from South Africa. Uh I have a huge position in SpaceX. Now you're making me worried. Well, it depends what your horizon is. I think will you be fine on a two-year basis? Yes. But tactically, I have just very high conviction that SpaceX goes down from here tactically until November. Hey Joe. Richard. Richard is babe I is hey Joe retired sound engineer here I can show you exactly what's wrong and how to fix all your sound issues happy to do it for free you made me a nice bit of coin lately least I can do that's very nice yeah sound is super annoying it's very important and I have no clue what's going on here but it's very tricky Richard because there is like riverside where I'm streaming this from goes into x it goes into YouTube and the problem is I get different feed feedback from different people. Some people say sound is too low. Other people say sound is fine. So, how do we figure that out? But yeah, you can connect with me on X. I would be very grateful for some tips. Um, hey, it's Anthony says very small amount as I do want to buy heavy in case SpaceX does dive. Uh, just does give us a buying opportunity around 100. As I said, I don't have a price. I don't know where this ends up being in November, December, if it's 100 or 50 or 150. Uh I just think uh it's inevitable that this thing goes down in my opinion unless they pull some extreme rabbits out of the hat, but it's going to be very hard. Billis is asking, "Do you currently live in the US?" So I'm currently in Europe but I was for a very long time in the US and uh moved back to Europe in 2025 last year. Uh re real redneck. I have a Roth designated company retirement account where I am transferring or my personal Roth 23,000 total plan on selling a put at 135 strike month out duration until it fills. Interesting. Um well it's a smart plan. It's a smart plan if you want to own SpaceX and are comfortable with a 135 strike because you can definitely make some good money until it fills. Uh I would still think I don't know it's it's a good strategy because we don't know when it actually drops and how much. Um what are the odds that you can get it cheaper? Very high in my opinion, but you will make some money in between. Basically, if you get 10 bucks for this, you're effectively buying it for 125. Um, Jeff Jones Jr. covered puts. I'm long call leaps. When Tesla runs up, I sell calls. If assigned, I take the short shares versus closed leap with liquidity. I then sell covered puts at my short assigned price. That's very complicated. Breaks my brain. But uh probably smart as long as you can time it appropriately like you know when you say run up and sell uh sell calls well it's all about how good are you in in estimating this thoughts on Bitcoin recently like Bitcoin is recovering now I think this 60,000 barrier seems to still work for Bitcoin even though it fell to 58,500 but I mean it's ringing back. I think micro strategy I got a little concerned but you know when you look at the fundamentals of micro strategy I mean there's not much to be concerned about in my opinion I think was totally panicked oversold and we see it bouncing back now so it's fine supersonic Asian says sound is fine must be your accent yes I'm breaking the microphone Bria Braman says how Is it? How is it? How is it? How is it to all the South Africans here? Cheers to you all from Sappa in Wales. Hey, it's Anthony. I think SpaceX will settle around 175 185 for a while. Whoa. Let's see about that. Um, my mom super Jeff says, "My mom said you have to stop being mean to SpaceX stock." I'm not mean. I'm just telling you what is inevitable and that I will load up on the stock. I think it's a great stock and if you buy the stock now, I mean, in three years or whatever, you will be probably happy. Uh Boba says, "I think Joe can probably pull enough shorts off at enough volume to be worth his while. I don't think I could." I mean, I'm cautious, but yeah, I can add multiple percents to my performance with not too much risk on SpaceX if I do it right. Wilder, not concerned about Micro Strategy. I assume they are raising fresh dollars to pay old investors. Sounds familiar. I mean, they bought back a convertible node that wasn't even due for a discount. I think that's a rational rational procedure. And of course, Micro Strategy is not Tesla. It's not SpaceX. It's not a business like that. It's just a bet on Bitcoin. If you're bullish on Bitcoin and you understand Micro Strategy, it can be nice. Arab says, "I love how everyone was bragging about being allowed to buy a certain uh amount of shares of SpaceX at RBO. Like Elon did them a great favor. Everyone will have a second chance now to buy it even lower, 100%." Uh, Petty Irishman Hyro Andro also getting into rapidly deployed data centers called Menace for military use only. I didn't hear that, but Endur is not public, right? They still need an IPO. Um uh so I am actually if I had to choose any defense related company I like much more than Palunteer mostly on like a gut feeling level when it comes to ethics. I just don't trust Palanteer totally. I think David Cup doesn't do himself a favor the way he talks about everything. He has to tone it down a little bit. He has trust issues with the market. I think it's a good business. But Andrew, I like the guy. I like Primal Lucky. Um noise reduction. Open all settings. I'm looking at my audio. Audio and video. Mirror video. No. Uh, I don't know what's going on because I'm using the exact same settings as with normal recordings and normal recordings are totally fine. So, I don't know what what is going on. So, audio is set. No, I don't know. Normally, it's like it's not a problem only with live streams. Uh, how will Tesla go up? What will Tesla go up to short term? I don't know. Ray Tang fitness, that's like a trillion dollar question, but uh I think deliveries could be a little sell the news or it could really up more if they are hot. So I'm not placing a major bet on tomorrow, but I think July, you know, I think we have an exponentially higher chance now that Cyber Cap is deploying and then it goes up a lot. If CyberCap was to flop, I don't know what that means. TGE66, what is a flop? Like you mean an accident or something? I think CyberCap is a done deal. It will scale. It will scale to tens of millions. The question is just how cleanly, how quickly, is it linear? Are there major hiccups? So that's where it can't be a flop, right? It's just can't can have a hiccup and then that's not good for the stock. What is your base case for SpaceX? Lowest trade price 100. I think if you get a market crash in Q4, which can totally happen like just a seasonal correction of 10 20% of the market, uh, plus all these shares coming into the market, I think SpaceX can absolutely go to 50 or something like that if things get nasty. Uh, because there's just no floor. That's the problem for SpaceX. I mean, how do you value this thing? If you put any normal valuation as I said any valuation for reasonable peers palenteer anthropic openai Tesla if you use these revenue multiples or operating income multiples SpaceX is toast that's the problem and what are you going to do you have to do something Luciano another Tesla crash on the news doesn't sound like the media likes Elon Tesla media seems to only call out the car brand when a Tesla is involved yeah but no one paid Pay attention to that crash. That was too ridiculous this time. Will Tesla keep that momentum going for the stock price? Ray tank fitness. I can just tell you I'm cautious because we ran up a little bit too much and Tesla is famous for you know pulling back a little bit after these crazy runups. So I am thinking we definitely have now the potential to flatten out here and pull back to 410. maybe be ready to 440 and then pull back to 420 415. You know, if we get to this 440 to 415 range again, I feel very comfortable with that. If we would drop from here to 400, that would be very annoying. So, I think you know if you you can never get too enthusiastic after something like this unless we have another boost. So tomorrow deliveries if they're completely blown out of the water it can go to 440 but from there on it will deflate downwards unless cyber cap does something big which it totally could. So that's the tricky situation. But the default I would say after tomorrow, let's see tomorrow could be an immediate sell the news to 415 410 could flatline or if they absolutely kill it, right? If it's 480 or something, I think it can get a final push, but then we're done. So I think if we go to 440, 435 tomorrow, we're definitely done in my opinion because then that's the delivery boost. From there, you're just done. you're just going down. Um, unless Cyber Cap comes into the equation, which totally could happen. And so that's kind of the trade setup. That's the big question. What do we do? Uh, Andreas says, "Hi, Joe. Sorry I might be out of uh be off topic, but with all the AI technology, I'm curious if you invested in cyber security stocks." Thank you. No, I have a very concentrated portfolio. I'm concentrating on Nvidia, SpaceX, Tesla, Micro Strategy. Uh I will look at Micron. I think Micron is a good deal by the way. You know, we're doing a little more research. I think Micron is just on every possible metric very undervalued still and it's now going down. So, I'm getting much more interested in Micron. that drops a little bit more. People are a little uh now tired uh getting tired of Nvidia semiconductors and RAM it seems. But that's shortlived. So I'm pretty sure Nvidia will rally soon. They you can't not really this thing for too long and Micron if it keeps having problems right now. Very good. Um oh markets already closed. No, markets of course open tomorrow. I have options expiring. Um, you mean on Friday? Tomorrow they should be open. I need to sell my Tesla shares to have a down payment on a home. Should I do 3.5% down or 10% down on a home? I can tell you that. That's a very financial advisor question. Any chance Tesla rent out It's data centers. Um, that's a good question and they are much smaller than SpaceX data center. So it's much less money and they need it for robotics. So I don't think that's a big business for them because they have smaller data centers and they need them more 440 by next Tuesday. Then Cyber Cap release 600 plus within a week or so. That's a little optimistic. Uh Jeff Jones Jr. with all the Fourth of July US flag wraps will we see cyber cap expansion this weekend? I don't think so. I said like maybe the World Cup, but I don't think Tesla thinks like that. They just think step by step when it's ready, roll it out. They don't care too much about these things. Real Redneck says Herbert's interview with Lass Muravi reveals that something big with Cyber is coming after July 4th. I Yeah, I saw it. I don't think that's what he said. He said there will be a surprise about growth and scale, but I understood him more like a buildout thing for the campus in in Austin. So it seems more like a Optimus thing maybe. TGE66, are you confident Optimus will dominate the humanoid market or just be one of many? No, I think there will be total domination going on. That's a different video. I will cover this in more in depth, but it's important to understand how this stuff works and that this idea you need the best robot and you need to blow people's minds with the robot is ignoring the basic fact that again it's about the machine that builds the machine. If you have the best robot but not the factory and supply chains, you're screwed. So I think they're doing exactly the right thing. Hey, it's Anthony. Joe, I think you're getting somewhat compulsive on the options. You may want to dial it back just a little more patience. Set alerts on better entry points. You don't always need to put a trade on. H I disagree. I think I got it under control. I mean, it's always fine tuning. I got a little too aggressive in June. Yes, but it's not about chilling is not good for me at least. But it's about uh sizing. That's very important to have very precise sizing, risk sizing. Uh Chris Deans, I don't give a fck if they know it's a warning cuff. Everything ever took what? I don't understand. This is confused. Breman, I need Tesla to remain low for the next month. I need 12 stocks to reach my target. Yes. Very good. Exactly. Okay. Very good, guys. Let's wrap it up. But that is my strategy to repeat. I am going more short. SpaceX still a small position 180 one month calls. If it moves against me, which might happen, I see that as an opportunity to double down because starting in August, I do not see any chance of SpaceX keeping it up here. If SpaceX slides down from here, it's fine. and I make a little bit of money, miss out on some opportunities, but if it moves against me, I would actually like that because that sets me up for more. Let's see what happens. Tesla remains tricky. Tricky, but strategically very optimistic if you don't want to squeeze out too much alpha. An easy win in my opinion, potentially very big win. So, I hope everyone likes it and uh we will have I will have a video out in not too long, less than 24 hours on citizen vigilante. I needed to do a video on citizen vigilante. We needed some commentary on that. Then we will talk more about AI on Thursday tomorrow and then the Germany video is coming out. You need a political update on the situation in Europe by the way. It's very important.