Transcription
We had two huge pieces of news. One was expected and one was not expected. Let's clean all this off and get right to it.
You can obviously see how we got right to the key level again of that 750 rejected. Trying to hold the 12 and the 22 here. We're going to spend some time on this today, but I think it's more important to look at the NDX. You have a declining 22 and 12. And you can see how we're sitting right on this key level on the NDX. You can actually see it perfectly on the cues and there's a key level right here at 710 that we have to go over.
The most interesting part of the day was not the Samsung earnings which we have to go over, but why oil spiked and it spiked out of nowhere. And I think that this is the most important thing out there because it was not expected at all. Everyone assumed what was going on in Iran was pretty much a wrap and then oil says no. Hold on for a second and this is what we get. Let's get into why this happened. Go through Samsung's earnings and prep for tomorrow.
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This was the news that came out of nowhere today. US revokes Iran oil waivers after attacks in the strait of Hormuz. And we can see exactly what happened when this news hit. And then we can see exactly how that news affected the market. And it was just at 2:46 and everything was going well. Market actually had a bid to it. Things were holding in and then out of nowhere oil crude is up 3%. And this is really what people get concerned about because the question is and we were going through this in the community. It's I'm trying not to laugh about it, but the question always becomes, do you go out there and get involved in this? Okay, maybe you can pick up a couple dollars, but you just you never know what's going to happen. You don't know how long that this is going to be on for. You don't know how long that waiver is going to be out there. Are we just going to come in tomorrow and the waiver's back on? We just really don't know what to expect. So, what this tends to do is it just causes uncertainty. You know, the waiver on, we could have waiver off tomorrow. We just don't know. Matter of fact, they already issued a statement. Iran already issued a statement saying that it wasn't them on this attack. Whether you whatever side of this you're on, whether you believe that or not is completely irrelevant. The bottom line is we want the strait meaning we the US wants this open just as bad as everybody else. But if you're going to have issues, then you're going to have issues and you're going to have to deal with them. So if this continues, this is a wild card and I want to get back into the indexes. But I do want to point this out that this is an enormous wild card.
If we take a look here, this is where we were promised that it was all over. And then you can see that from there, that long bar down, we did get back into some of these key levels, which is super interesting that that's where we closed, open, closed in that area. And that's really where we're lifting again. So, we're going to want to watch this tomorrow. Candidly, I think that he wants this done sooner than later, but I don't know what that looks like. I truly do not have a clue, and I'm not going to pretend that I am some geopolitical expert and explain this straight to you with a crown here. It's just not going to happen. So this is the hand that we're dealt.
If we want to look at this from a technical basis, it's the first close above the 12. If you're closing above the 12, you're coming off a support line. Could you get up to 115, 116? Yeah, you could. And if you do that, this market's not prepped for that. And so one of the key things that we've had with the market, and you can see this, and this is how bonds reacted today. And I think that that's this is really important. So this is how bonds reacted to that news. You're back over a 450. So we're at 453 on the 10-year. We can squeeze this down for a sec. And so now we have to ask ourselves, does this mean that rates are going higher? Well, the very first thing that happened was financials reversed and financials closed at the low of the day. If we look at regional banks closed at the low of the day. If we look at XLF, they didn't seem that affected by it, but it definitely did hurt the banks. And I do think it's interesting that it didn't hurt the REITs at all, but it definitely hurt the regionals and it definitely hurt the larger cap banks. They went from higher highs, hitting all-time highs and breakouts to all of a sudden now you're rolling back over going into earnings. So, this is an issue that we didn't have before where people were rotating out of semiconductors and into finance because financials will come out with earnings next week and so therefore they are a better play and then we get this suck salad. So that is an issue that we have to deal with and it does matter because if you take a look at some of these names, if we go and take a look at the SOX for a second right here, you can see semiconductors came directly to that 55-day moving average. Now we're setting up to get a 12-22 cross here, which is not great. I've seen great before. It doesn't look like this, but you're holding. And if you go and take a look at this, it's very obvious when this happened. So let's get rid of these crazy lines. And we got right to the neckline and everything was going groovy. We were all, everyone was having a good time. Everyone was talking about how smart they were. And then wham, time for a new lesson. Here we go. No waiver for you. And right when that kicked in, it was just consistent selling. And I think a lot of people looked at this and said, you know what, I just don't want the overnight risk. And I don't really blame them for that. But when we see that with semiconductors, we start to realize that the trigger was no longer a semiconductor issue, but a macro issue. So I'm going to just say that again. This was we didn't drop here at the dentist's favorite time of day 2:30 because of what? Of a fundamental issue with semiconductors. We turned here because you had a macro issue. And this is why it's so important to understand this because if you understand the issue and here it comes. But if you understand the issue, whether it's macro, fundamental, or technical. Hold on one second here. There we go. I have to do these raw and unedited. I apologize for my childlike drawing. You're probably like, "Man, I wish he had a crown and crayon." before you guys correct me. Is that how you want me to say it? Does that fit into your narrative? All right, cool. Macro, fundamental, technical. Here we go. So, this is a macro issue. Man, this stool is This stool needs some love. This is a really bad stool. A lot going on with this. That's wrong. All right. Macro, fundamental, technical. What, who, when, right? So, what we always want to do with this is pay attention. Why? Because we want to know what caused it. Was it bad earnings from Samsung? No. Their earnings were fantastic. They're only up 19x on the earnings from where they were a year ago. But then if you listen to Bob on Twitter, he's going to tell you about that it's the peak. Okay, Bob. So if we take a look at this, poor Bob eating hot pockets. So if we take a look at this, we know we have a macro issue. So waiver on, waiver off. If we start to see that kind of game again, then we have to understand what that's telling us. That's telling us very clearly that okay, if waiver on, then semis are going to lift. So understanding what the issue is is going to be the thing. I do believe this and you might not. That's fine. You don't have to. But I do believe we would have followed through today. And I think at the end of the day, people started looking at this like, wait a minute, we're going to get wavered now. We're going to get tacoed again. Like how many times are we going to do this? It's funny cuz I get comments saying, well, don't be political. That's not a political statement. That's what happens. Like it is what it is, guys. You know, you have to at least be able to to converse about the actual stuff that's happening out there. And this is happening. And we do change our opinion quite often here on the admin within 24 to 48 hours. So I think people started to realize that and then last half hour you started to see that get a bid to it. This provided a nice opportunity for some trading, some like really quick trading and you had to be super quick about it. But in here we were able to get involved on a real quick scalp and I just wound up holding it because I did very well with the scalp. I got in at like 85. I'm still in it and the premiums are so ridiculous. I was able to sell like the 1650s for like $70. So worst case scenario, if it popped up on me, you know, I get 1720, 1725, something like that. But then at the same time, it also gives me a 70-point cushion in case, you know, we get double secret waivers removed overnight. And so it's very important to kind of get this stuff. And I just think it's important to understand that was your driving force tonight. And if you didn't have that driving force, I think you had an okay day. I'm getting ahead of my skis because I do want to go through this because I think it's really very important.
If you look at the SPY, it is very difficult for you to look at this and say that you're having a bad time. You're not having a bad time. If you're in semiconductors and you trade tech, you're not it's I've had fun before. This isn't what it feels like. So, if we look at these levels, we can see the breakout, the failure, but we're over the island reversal and we're over all our key levels. And so, we don't really have an issue with the S&P 500. So, let's not convince ourselves that we do have an issue when we don't because we have issues and we can talk about where our issues actually are. You know, from the daily when we look at the RSI, it's aligned. There's no real problems here. You have this DTL. It is what it is. Downward trend line, DTL. But what are you really doing? Well, you came down here. You undercut here on your 4-hour chart. You actually made a what? Lower low and you made a higher low. So, this is actually setting up to be perfect. I don't think this fits in there, but I'd be really curious because I haven't done this yet. I wonder if that fits in there. Look at that. Isn't that crazy how that works? So, you know, there's your channel and you're at the top end of it. But to me, I think you could push into bank earnings next week. We'll get into it on Saturday. But this is what you have. So, that's not awful. I've seen awful before. That's not what it looks like.
Now, if we get into the Qs, you're sitting, you hit the low, and then you made a higher low, and then you're trying to figure out what you're going to be when you grow up. And you have the 710 level, and this is what you look like on a 4-hour. And that's what you look like on a daily. And it's not good. And you can see the rounding. What I don't really like about it is this. So if I was to draw a line from here to here, that's going to be the first one. And then you would go to the next point. And so I call this fanning. And what you're doing is the fan's actually getting lower and steeper. That's not really where you want to be. You could get super technical here and use these pieces right here. And you can see how you undercut it, held. But I think the easiest thing to do for us is just make it super simple. If you close below the 55, is that good or bad? It's bad. So, like there you go. Real simple. If you close below the low of today, you're going to close below the 55. So, if you close below 70490 and just remember one number, that's not going to be great. And then the worst part of that, if it happens, and I'm not so sure it's going to, I would be more comfortable if I didn't have to deal with the what's going on overseas because that became a wild card. But that's 70334. If I don't close below that in this, then I'm okay. If I close below that, well, now I have a lower low close. And so now you can say, yeah, I have a downtrend. I, you know, some people would look at the 12 and the 22 here. It's declining. So you already have a downtrend. Boomer. I want confirmation of it before, you know, I say that we do. But you can see again right in here how we hit, how we rejected. So what do we want to do here? And how do we want to look at this? We want to watch this key level tomorrow. I don't know that you will have to go out there and rotate into everything else that's out there. I'm not sure that that's the move.
If you look at XLV, yeah, they did lift again. They did have a good day. The one sector that looks absolutely fantastic is biotech. It just continues to push and that's a really good sign. And you're seeing a lot of buyouts there. So, you've just been absolutely explosive and we're just seeing money flow into it. And if you look here on the volume, it's all above average volume, which is exactly what you want to see versus the above average selling that you're seeing in semiconductors. So you're seeing things like ARCG that held today. It wasn't the best. But if you look at LABU, this thing's just been an absolute monster. I take the other side of this. I just short LABD. This is from the community. Let me clean it off. If you're trying to get in, it is on waitlist. It did open for enrollment two days ago. So, a bunch of invites will go out this week. Just look for one and there's the links in description and I pin it if I remember. But if you're looking at something like LABU, yeah, I think it's I do think it's interesting because this is holding up better than anything right now. I do like some of the genomic names, but do I want to play an individual name or just play the space? And candidly, all I've been doing is just shorting this and it's been working like a charm. It's probably the easiest trade I have right now and it just keeps getting better and better. So there's very little reason for me to do anything with it. My concern again is going to be rolling into the oil trade and what happens there.
That said, we really need to watch semis because what you don't want is you don't want a NASDAQ close where you have the NASDAQ close under the 55 and the SOX close under the 55. So for those that are adventurous, this is it. This is what you have. If you start closing under this, yeah, you're broken and you're going to have to wait for it to reset and really start setting up. But you can't really start breaking down over this and not think that you have a problem. The same thing here. You know, if you start closing under the lower low of that 52189, then yeah, you have a problem. Under the 55, you have a problem. What I think was really impressive today from my standpoint, what I thought was really interesting was like the KAC's of the world. They came right to these levels and they're holding. But what was just fascinating is it wasn't just one, it was all of them. So KAC, Lam Research, if you go and take a look here, AAC couldn't get anywhere near close to it. ASML, it really couldn't get close to it. Looks like it's probably heading there. But when you're at these key levels, there are a bunch of names there such as Lam, such as KAC that are right on those 55s. So for people that were waiting and saying, "Oh, I'm going to wait for a pullback." Ding. Now whether or not you want to do it, that's up to you. But I thought this was super interesting with Intel. You closed on it, just under it a little bit. But you're here. And for everybody saying, "I'm going to buy it when it pulls back." Now you're down a chunk. And you got to realize, guys, you're not down a little bit on these names. You know, Intel's down 25% from its high. That's a chunk. So if you were looking at these names saying, "Hey, where are those levels?" You probably want to start looking at some of these names. I think that AMD was one that they had to be in until you know we had waiver city. But you know what do you do now? I think you have to watch it, pay attention to it. 500 seems to be an area it really continues to hold no matter what. If you go and take let's clean all this off and I'll show you this. But you really have a very hard time staying below 500. Anytime you get near there, you're starting to see buyers and you know if you undercut it that five well it looks like it's 504 here. But if we got to the 500 and I drop it here, you'll note that it's very rare for you to stay under 500 if you get there. It's like super rare. So, there seems to be a huge bid in this name. And I think that that is just continuing. I don't think there's anything more for me to say about it.
Let's get rid of that and then let's get into the big dogs because I think the big dogs were super interest. Now, one thing that I like doing with these trades is I like overlaying them and then just watching them move in regards to one another. And I've shown this several times. And the way that I do that is I just put them all on a chart and then I can just watch them. And I'll show you again how I do it. But it's really simple. The point that I'm getting at here is everybody wanted to be in SanDisk. Everyone kept saying SanDisk. Oh, I can't wait to buy SanDisk. Well, SanDisk today was down 36%. That's what you were down. And from that 36%, you hit your 55 and you bounced over it almost forming a dragonfly. If you take a look at it, it's not perfect, but life isn't. So, but you're almost there, right? Then you could take a look at something like Micron. Yeah, you're down, but you're not SanDisk. You didn't undercut like that. And that's my point here. If you were looking at these names, going through these names that hit those levels and then watching how they're acting, I think it's super interesting to me. It is anyway that those names such as DRAM, we couldn't get there, but DRM doing that. There was a KAI I really like this name right to the 55 and then held. So, but a lot of these names are doing that. Now, when you look at something like SanDisk, and I went through this last night, I don't know if I did it in the public, but I know I did it privately where I was walking through this. No, I did it last night at like 11:00 when everybody's watching soccer and looking at charts. Let me show you this. So, if we go here and you take that swing low, so you break out earnings, take the low after that earnings. So, we mark that off and then from there, you get this 618 level and you'll see that level becomes a really a key area. So if I go to a 5-minute here and then I drop it like it's hot here, you'll see you were fighting it and you were fighting it pre-market and I think that's very important for you to watch tomorrow. So I'd watch 1660, but overall I really like the action in this today. And here, let me show you this. But wait, there's more. So if I go SOX, EWY, RAM, Intel, Marvel, ARM, you'll see the difference. You won't be able to miss it. We'll put the Qs in here as well. And then what we'll do, uh, I think they're the ones I want. Yep. And then what we'll do is we'll go to a one. And then we'll drop this to a line as well. Watch what happens. And we'll get rid of the pre and the post. When we go to this 7:00 or 7th, hold on. Let me just make sure I got the right spot. Yep, that's what I want. Right there. Perfect. So when we start getting into this, you'll start seeing that what names they really had to buy. And so everything that's above the Qs and the SOX right here. Let's do it this way so that you can see it that way now. Cool. And then we're going to go to here so that it'll populate. It's really interesting because if I get too close to this line, it will discolor them. I want to get that. So, if you want to make sure that I get it accurate, I don't have time to edit it. So, you got to do this with me. Just us sharing. All right. Cool. So, if we take a look at what really happened here today, I think it was super interesting because if you look at where Intel and ARM were, they really weren't interested there, were they? What were they really? What were they buying? And then let's drop this in too. I thought we had this one in, but what were they really buying here? They were really buying Micron, Sandisk, DRAM, EWY, and then AMD over semiconductors, over Marvel, over the NASDAQ, over Intel, and over ARM. It's not like there weren't trades there, but the fact that they had to get into SanDisk, Micron, and DRAM after Samsung, cuz we were told Samsung was a disaster. Somehow making 900% what you made last year is a disaster. I don't know, maybe I got to go back and study econ. But to me, I thought this was really very important. Now, it doesn't mean that you're going to go up, right? People have all kinds of issues and they're going to buy and sell stocks. And I'm not going to say just because you have good earnings, stocks go up. We all know better than that at this point. But I do think it's interesting to look at something like Samsung and let's just grab it real quick. And so you can see that if we look at that Samsung chart and there's the symbol for it and then we took that Samsung chart and then we overlaid it with like the SOX. I mean it's like looking in the mirror, right? And then if you take a look at EWY, it's kind of like looking in the mirror. Then of course Kor is going to look the same way but just on steroids. So then when we kind of look at this if Samsung's having great earnings and DRM's actually holding and SanDisk is holding the 55 and these names tend to hold. Yeah, we have an issue. We have a waiver issue over here, right? And yes, that can weigh on the market. Like don't if you think that oil spiking is not going to hurt the market, you're wrong. It's a macro issue and it's why I pointed it out. What I'm getting at here is we keep hearing about the end of the world and capex is going to come in and this is going to come in and that's going to happen. I I'm not seeing any signs of that. So, if someone has a headline where a company has actually done something to cut capex, let me know because Amazon raised 28 billion today. And it doesn't mean that it can't smooth it all out. They raised 28 28 billion today in the bond offering, right? Meta is out here and they're going to now do something with images. And then everyone got excited and they went, "Yay, images." So, you know, and that was after they were going to cut capex here, but now they're expanding into images. So, they want to have it both ways, right? Oh, they're going to cut capex, so it's great. Oh, they're expanding into this whole image thing. Okay. So, does anyone see anything? You always can comment on this. Show me the capex cut from anybody. We're not seeing that. Samsung is doing a buildout and they are doing a buildout. Samsung's doing a buildout with SK Hynix. It's a trillion dollar buildout, right? You can't do it without ASML. You need KAC. You need AAT. Lamb Research. 79% no 39% of Lamb Research's revenues come from NAND, which is SanDisk, right? Those kinds of names. So, it's all connected and we're not seeing those cracks. Does that mean that other sectors can't benefit and have money flow into them? No, it can 100%. But the market doesn't crash when the Dow's hitting all-time highs. You just rotate. That's it.