Transcription
I think gold can hold at 4,000. It might dip a little at times, which is an error, a consolidation. If you look at the Chinese central bank, they are buying strongly right now. When it goes down, they buy, because they buy and hold. They have a clear objective: buy and keep, buy and use it to compete with the dollar, to secure themselves in the future. When they were talking about the war with Iran ending, suddenly, I don't remember if it was JP Morgan or someone else, I don't know which bank, I don't remember, they came out and said, "We expect the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year." Isn't that a coincidence? But it can't go much further if there isn't a second and third group of investors, which hasn't arrived yet: the group that buys for returns.
>> Moving on again, the annual investor gathering, Follow the Future 2026, the 4th edition. A stage that brings together investors, experts, and global perspectives in one event. We are back with the theme "Beyond Imagination: Investing in the Next World." Meet us at True Digital Park on Saturday, November 21, 2026. Early bird tickets are now on sale, with a limited quantity of only 100 special price tickets. What is your view on gold at the current price of 4,000, Khun Moo?
>> Let's start like this. No need to go too far back. 4,000, when was the last time we saw it before it went up to 5,600? The answer is October 2025.
>> Yes.
>> You can check. 4,000 was in October 2025, and it only took about 4 months to go up to 5,600. Right? 5,600 was probably around January or February of this year. And after that, it came down. Today, it stopped at 4,000. I think this way. I'll summarize. First, I think gold can hold at 4,000. It might dip a little at times, which is an error, a consolidation. Why is that? Because, first, I've observed 2-3 things. The first thing is, if you look at the Chinese central bank, they are buying like crazy. When it goes down, they buy, because they buy and hold. They have a clear objective: buy and keep, buy and use it to compete with the dollar, to secure their currency in the future, whether it's digital or anything else. This is why 4,000 has a floor. But it can't go much further if there isn't a second and third group of investors, which hasn't arrived yet: the group that buys for returns. Because right now, I don't know what to call it, let's say the US has succeeded in creating expectations or guiding the market that "I will raise interest rates," right? It's like this: when the war with Iran happened, gold went down. When the war ends, gold should go up. Huh? Why did gold go down, or not go up? Because the US, notice this, immediately when they were talking about the war with Iran ending, suddenly, I don't remember if it was JP Morgan or someone else, I don't know which bank, I don't remember, they came out and said, "We expect the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year."
>> Bank of America.
>> Isn't that too much of a coincidence? And after that, people started discussing it extensively.
>> Wow.
>> Yes.
>> Right? And another thing they used to reinforce it was that 9 FOMC members started thinking that they must raise interest rates twice. Huh, suddenly it changed. Because of inflation. Let's analyze it. It's very coincidental that these two things came out. This made the market excited that interest rates must be raised. Now, let's think again. Do you think it's true? What will definitely happen, let's be sure first: US inflation in June will fall below 4%. Believe me, I'll bet on it. Why do I know? Because I looked at the components of US inflation. They haven't risen much, but the components that have fallen significantly are energy. Energy is what pushed inflation up from 2.6% to 4.2% in 3 months, right? 4.2% for 2 months, 5% based on WTI oil at $100. 3.8% for 8 months, 4% based on WTI oil at over $90. What is WTI today? Over $70.
>> Yes.
>> So, what do you think inflation will be in June if it doesn't fall below 4%? It would be unbelievable. If it falls below 4%, it's normal. How much will it fall? In April, 3.8%. This was based on oil over $90. Do you think it will be lower than 3.8% in June? This is what I'm thinking. I told you from the beginning that other components haven't changed much. Next, in July, do you think the current oil price, in old Thai terms, is like "mai ee nang khang khop" (unstable, unpredictable) due to the war? Look, the war is fighting, oil prices are not going up, they are staying put. In the low 70s, still the same, not much change, right? And today, someone in Thailand said oil would be scarce in June, remember? They said there would be no oil. Today is the end of June, and I haven't heard anyone mention it. Where did those who spoke then go? I don't know. I bet there is, there isn't anywhere. The world is like we discussed at the beginning. The world has diversified a lot.
>> Don't think like before that energy is concentrated only in the Middle East, and so on. If that were the case, oil would have gone to $200 long ago, it wouldn't be like this. So, if oil stays around $70 and continues like this until next month, will CPI fall further? And if CPI falls from 4.2% to 3-something. Let's say from 4.2% to 3.7%, then to 3.4%. Let's assume you are the Fed. Would you raise interest rates? What reason would you use to raise interest rates? Those 9 FOMC members who said they would raise, what reason would you use? If you say another reason they often cite is, "Oh, the US economy is good." GDP in the first quarter was 2.1%. Is that good? No, it's average.
>> Yes.
>> Unemployment, non-farm payrolls. What numbers would you use? Is it good? Is that really true? If you raise interest rates, what will happen? The bond market will be destroyed. The mortgage market will be destroyed. That's for sure. The stock market might also be destroyed.
>> Right? And the US government will also be destroyed. Because of what? The dollar. Because, why? Because there's no money to pay the debt. For every 1% increase in interest rates,
>> Yes.
>> You have to pay an additional $0.44 trillion in interest. Excuse me, do you know that today, a 1% increase in US interest rates is almost equal to a 10% increase in the past?
>> Yes.
>> Why? Because the debt has increased tenfold, almost tenfold, compared to the 1970s and 80s. Therefore, a 1% increase today is like a 10% increase 30-40 years ago. So, today, what reason does the Fed have to raise interest rates, or dare to raise interest rates? Better to say it this way, to be more accurate.
>> Yes.
>> Second, I think they will keep interest rates unchanged. Maybe not lower, maybe not lower at the end of the year, I don't know, but not higher. Because I see that what I've explained, I'm not guessing. At least for June, no guessing, it will definitely go down. For July, we'll have to see what the oil price is. Actually, right now, it's not really related to the war. It's related to what the oil price will be. That's all. And after the war ends, what will happen to oil? First, the world relies much less on oil. Do you know that? A number that people don't pay much attention to is the energy intensity to GDP. Do you know this? In the past, we needed more than 10% oil to generate 1% GDP. But now, it's only 4%, 3%.
>> Is this an average, Khun Moo?
>> Yes. Why? Because we have renewables that are much cheaper than oil. We have batteries, right? We don't need to use oil. Like electricity now, do you think we need to use oil? No. If electric cars, let's assume, if China uses electric cars nationwide, China will need very little oil. Well, China's electricity doesn't use oil. It uses coal for half, hydro for 14%, nuclear for 10%, gas for 20%, and a little bit of other sources. So, I ask you.
>> I don't see oil anywhere. It's not even in the equation. Gas is barely there. So, if China's electricity doesn't rely on oil and gas, let's assume they switch all their cars to EVs. Then, I ask, why would China rely on oil? They'll use it for other things, a little bit. That's why I tell you, the world, first, uses much less oil in terms of per GDP, called intensity. Don't look at the absolute numbers. You can't look at it like that.
>> Yes.
>> Second, the distribution of production is wide. In the past, you didn't have shale gas, you didn't have oil sands in Canada, you didn't have Brazil, you didn't have all these things. Now, you have them all. Therefore, OPEC has almost no power to dictate anything. And now, the UAE says they won't participate anymore.
>> Oh, this is even worse. Iraq is threatening to leave too.
>> See? When you look at it like this, these risks, this fragmentation, is good.
>> Do you know what it does?
>> It makes oil cheaper and more stable. Don't you think so?
>> Thank you everyone for following us all along. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers to create a broader society for learning about economics, business, and investment. We now have YouTube Membership. By subscribing, you will receive exclusive content and seminars from PRP and Team Business Tomorrow. Please subscribe.