We Have Not Seen This Since June 2008…

Today's number is 10 because we have not seen this happen since 2008 in June. Yes, the small caps have beaten not only the Magnificent 7 this year but also the S&P 500 for every single trading session. And that means that we have to discuss exactly what that means coming into earning season with the banks and of course most bonds around the world not showing any signs of concern just yet. Are we heading into the calm before the storm?

Well, in today's video, we need to talk about the shenanigans around silver, what's going on in stocks, commodities, and cryptos, and of course, these upcoming potential new tariffs. Could all of this be actually signaled by a huge amount of imbalance in the options market? Well, welcome back everyone to the special weekend edition of the Daily Show. My name's Thomas Atinson and as always, we're discussing the macro, the data, and of course, what Wall Street doesn't want you to know right now about markets, including some big moves that they've made over the last couple of sessions that we need to discuss.

But let's kick things off here with one of the biggest reads that you usually get each year, and it's courtesy of, of course, the great man Wayne why over on X. He always does this, and it's one of the best reads, which is the toy barometer. Generally taken from a period of time in the previous year and then all the way to January 19th. And because of course January 19th this year is going to be on a public holiday, we already have the stats and we can present them to you in this video.

Now, Subaru Trade has actually gone and unpacked this a little bit more and you'll notice the stats are actually amazing when it comes to the next 12 months and this backs in some of the things we've already been talking about in January. Basically, we've come off a not very good Santa Claus rally, a first 5 days very, very good, and of course, a breadth improvement, and this means that this year is probably filled with opportunities. So, if it's your first time here to the channel, make sure to subscribe, and of course, smash that alert button because there's going to be a lot of things that you want to be looking at, including Wall Street moving into most likely even more sectors by the time everything is said and done.

Now, why is this an important stat? Because you can see 6 months, 9 months, and even 12 months later, we're usually bullish on the stock market. And that may come as no surprise for a lot of people. But if we expect something this year, which is probably going to be a lot of volatility due to a midterm election year, there could be a couple of opportunities from maybe buy the dip and even potentially selling the rip.

So, let's now take a look at the percentage of New York stocks here from the market stats above the 200 DMA. Everybody by now, I'm sure if you've been watching this channel, would be aware that breadth has been on the improve ever since the Federal Reserve cut rates back in September last year. And what this has allowed us to really do is to start to seek out rotation in different sectors. And I can tell you guys that is not what most people have been doing. And the reason I know that that is how it's been is because when you actually take a look at the stats in just a moment, you'll see that most people have been plowing into big tech as earnings start to look a little bit better. But actually multiples have been compressing. And we've got a little bit of a special here for Netflix this week where we're going to be looking at those multiples later on today's show because the big thing about this is compression. It does mean that there could be again some more opportunity.

So let's have a look at their S&P 500 EPS and consensus bottom-up estimates. You can see here that it's been improving for quite some time and in fact it looks like it's accelerating at a really fast rate and the main reason behind this is of course the dirty word at the moment which is AI data centers which if you're wanting to buy a new computer you're probably not very happy because RAM prices are through the roof SSD prices are through the roof and we just found out that maybe even graphics card prices are going to continue to go up with Nvidia saying you know what don't worry about us retail plebs we're going to go and supply those nice cards to these AI data centers in the future. It's pretty unfair out there yet, guys. But that's markets.

Let's take a look here at US equity fund flow. Now, this is where things get a little interesting. Blue Curtic here has a chart that shows that most people have been going into, let's say, passive funds and passive investments, particularly focused on large blends. And why wouldn't they? For years and years and years, the best thing to do was just basically buy big tech, buy the Magnificent 7 and say, "Yes, that's fantastic." And you'll notice just as that peaked in 2025, what did we start to see? A massive rotation. Here on the channel, we've been talking about metals, minerals, and obviously healthcare, oil services, and so many other different sectors. And they've been actually flying. And this year is no different with small caps, middle caps, and everything else actually doing better even though fund flow has actually been negative, especially when it comes from general investors.

So where does this take us into earnings season? Well, it means that we have to watch two things in particular. We've now seen the big banks and the current reaction to that has been lackluster in the markets and now we're about to see big tech really kicking off here with Netflix this week, Tuesday after the close. Now the big question then becomes what will happen if Netflix doesn't live up to expectations and so does Intel? Will we start to see further slide by the Magnificent 7 and could it lead into a head and shoulders pattern completing which actually means that we're actually going a little lower?

Well, this is where we start to get into the implied volatility and of course what's going on in the bonds markets. We know that a lot of people are actually specifically not worrying about bonds right now, but we have seen some activity in options. So, let's take a look now at what you expect into this earning season. We're going to be continuing to drive into these numbers throughout it. So, of course, check those out. But you can see here that Netflix is actually expected to move around 7.5% either up or down based on the earnings result. We're also going to see some pretty large moves from Intel as well, upwards of even 10%. Which means that this tech season earnings particularly is probably going to be pretty big with options markets saying yes, it could be the calm before the storm in terms of opportunity and also risk if you are leveled into it.

So here are the current stats for Netflix. And as we go through some of the Magnificent 7 over the next week or so, we're going to see this be pretty normal. Basically what's happened is the market has already spotted that there could be concern in AI growth and this is really around what the market is doing now from expectations of significant growth and huge forward PEs on Netflix of over 50 if you can believe it at one point coming down now all the way into around 27. Now why is this a huge deal? Well, it basically just means that we're getting a compression of overall valuations of the larger stocks in the world as the market starts to say, is there something wrong with this earnings? And of course, will AI actually live up to the expectations currently for the markets? This will probably be the big question of 2026 into 2027. And the main thing here is to really follow the flow more so than follow any of our opinions.

As you can see, a lot of people are going to start thinking that Netflix is starting to look cheap because it's getting back underneath its 5-year average. And that is something I usually look for. We used this for Google last year and of course I was very bullish and so were a lot of you guys about what was going on with Google. But now we'll have to see what happens with Netflix because it isn't just that the prices are starting to change. We're also seeing some massive transactions coming through. According to the latest data that we pulled, we actually found here on volume leaders that we have the number one largest trade ever, not Darkpool, but number one largest trade ever on Netflix coming through just about a week ago. And we also had the number two as well, number three and number four all at the top. So basically, somebody is transacting big time on Netflix. Probably some take profits up here. And we have to ask ourselves the question, is this a re-entry? I'm not too sure about that. I usually wait until after the earnings comes through and see if there's a replicable pattern. But it is a very interesting read and I think we're going to get a lot more of these large darkpool and big trades coming through this earning season because of course there's a lot at stake here into a midterm election year. There's going to be a lot of bears. There's going to be a decent amount of bulls and there's going to be a lot of people that are in the middle.

Let's now talk about put call ratio leading into this shortened week because of course we do have a public holiday on Monday in the US and that basically means that when we come in with some put call ratios looking like this we may be in for a little weakness. Now we've talked about the back end of January being not so good. It can sometimes give a little bit of a pullback. Well, according to the latest stats here based on put call ratios on total put call ratios going underneath 74 days later only 22% of the time the markets were actually bullish. So I don't think it's time to be really too FOMO in these markets as they have actually put on almost nothing since October. So do remember that it's been rotation rotation rotation not actual index uh overall gains.

If you have a look here at S&P 500 equity put call ratio, you can see it's a very similar read. One week later, only 23% of the time the markets were actually bullish.

So, let's now take a look at the bullish percent index. And it's one of our favorite reads. This one here being posted by Seth. We we like it as well. Um I know David Keller as well likes it a lot. And um basically it means that we are kind of getting overbought. We're in that area where you know you couldn't blame people for saying the markets are starting to get overpriced. Now, it's been a long time since we've been here, actually. As you can see, last year we talked about this on the bottom end, and that was during, of course, Liberation Day and all of the things that happened around that point in time. But it's very similar to where we found ourselves in December. And it's I think it's important to note that it was December of 2024. The markets, remember, didn't actually sell until late Feb and uh mostly or sorry, Feb and mostly late January. So, it did take a little while. And this is just another one of those reads starting to say, "Yeah, I think this market's starting to get a little bit extended. The Magnificent 7's breaking down." We've got to be careful, of course, this earning season if you don't want to go through what could be a minor dip at this stage.

Now, what about the market performance before and after Martin Luther King Day? Uh well, we can see here that we have basically got some interesting reads here from Jeffrey Hirs from the stock trader almanac. We generally get a little bit of weakness in the Tuesday and maybe Thursday of the week after. So again, it does line up relatively well with the stats we know tend to happen later on into January. You can see here from around that 16th on till around the 22nd, if it's going to fall during a midterm year, it tends to be around here. And while I'm not too scared about it, and I'm not sure if any of you guys are either, I don't know why you really would be. It's just something that I think we need to talk about as we do talk markets each day. The good news is the advanced decline line continues to go up which is obviously a positive sign for general breadth. The market is dull. So maybe the short will not be that aggressive if it does come through and the options high and low levels have been updated here for you guys. But you can see here it's pretty choppy market mostly being driven by sectors that we've discussed many times.

Now what about the S&P? You can see here that the key level to watch this week maybe around 6900 because 6900 seems to be where the put strikes are. If we go underneath 6900 that exposes 68 and 67 and as you guys know options make the world go round especially when it comes to the S&P the Q's and even Tesla as well. Here you can see here Tesla's still got that 430 kind of put wall that seems to be coming through most of the expirations. And again, if we get through 460, that would be quite positive for it. Nvidia 195 is the main call wall and 185 seems to and 180 seems to be holding some puts up at this stage. What about gold? Well, gold is around 420 for the put. So, you can see a huge amount of puts this week at 420, which may help to I guess support the overall precious metal. Uh, but not really too many reads there in options that help us. And on silver, it seems to be somewhere around that 80 still, which we've talked about several times. Now, I know silver spot is different, but this is of course silver, the option. So, you can see there that 80 level. And if we keep pushing up on silver, I wouldn't be surprised to see that at 90, which would probably equal about 100 on spot. So, it's very volatile. Volatility has entered into the chat for silver. You have to expect extreme risk now uh over the next couple of weeks as there are some powerful forces at play that we've discussed in previous videos.

Onto IBIT, it's really just about 55-56. If we get through there on IBIT, which is of course the most important Bitcoin options contract, then we should be looking pretty good for continuation when it comes to markets rallying up. And of course, we are looking hopefully at getting into that 104 to even 106 range now that markets broke 945 on Bitcoin.

So, let's start off here with one of our favorite bond reads. Basically, it's showing there is a calm before the storm. The last time we saw this was the back end of January and September of 2025, which both ended in actual rallies. That is, well, rallies in this bond freak out, but basically drops in markets. Now, it doesn't mean it's going to happen, but it is something we have to consider. And of course, we always consider these things.

But we do need to remember the market is broadening. 10 days in a row, the Russell 2000 has beaten the SPY, beaten the Magnificent 7. And I think that this is something we've been following for quite some time. And it really does mean there's a ton of opportunity. But when you have a look at this Magnificent 7 one, you really get a lie of the land. Look at this. Since 2023, it has clearly been this trend line all day. And that broke back just early here this year. And basically this tells us that we are in rotation potentially for a while here in markets because basically Wall Street has been activating so many different positions, so many different sectors this year alone in 2026 and late 25 that it really does mean that you're starting to think about stuff outside the box a little bit.

If you have a look here at Nvidia versus SPY, it's still holding up. So there's no head and shoulders to towards the downside. But if you look at Mags versus SPY, you can see it has broken towards the downside. And this obviously means that we could now take the distance of this of this move and actually extrapolate that out to potentially start to say, well, could we be seeing a little bit more weakness, maybe get into a 0.92 ratio on this chart and then start to see maybe some recovery. That would actually make a lot of sense. It would it'd be pretty good if that did happen. Don't know it well, but we have to bring it up because of course that's what we do.

Now in regards to the rest of the market, the US dollar has also been kind of bucking the trend a little bit there. You can see here the US dollar has held the low and the main thing for people here is going to be if we break past something like 101, then the dollar is probably going to strengthen for some time even though that's against the press, but obviously the price is telling us something different and watch that backward trend line that comes all the way from pretty much GFC style lows.

So let's now take a look at gold. And definitely gold and silver have started to look a little bit overbought in recent days. This has been pretty much where the press has been now. So in terms of everyone's been talking about it and there's no doubt that the trend is still up, but we have overextended once again. And this is starting to say well you know have we gone too far too quickly. Platinum and platinum which I both like as well on charts this year have both started to settle with you can see big wicks on each side. Breakout of course above the top here will be very very significant but we haven't actually seen really anything other than some rejections over the last kind of two days and what this shows us is that there is clearly some form of say powerful force involved the volatility has entered the chat and you can see it really here exemplified with silver giving me overbought reads a couple of times over here right now so we got about 7% swings three days in a row That's not what I would call a normalized market. So be careful out there, guys. Although the macro still says that silver, gold, and all these things will go up, you will remember that my silver gold ratio hit .02 last week, which was something I looked for pretty much for an entire year and a half. So this was uh a significant week for me in silver and therefore I think it was probably a significant week for quite a lot of traders and investors out there.

Now let's take a look at how oil ended. So, oil actually broke back below the 20 moving average and didn't hold the weekly, which I think is a pretty big deal. Oil services, of course, did manage to continue to rise up, which is our favorite one of our favorite sectors at the moment. And of course, you can see here energy stocks also bounce through. So, like I've said before, you're better off kind of like looking at the stocks than you are the the actual barrels because the barrels are very susceptible to daily moves. And you've seen that with all the tweets and things that are coming out. We also have a bunch of tariffs that are potentially going to go through at the end of the month which were just announced this weekend. So, we'll see how the market reacts to those as well.

You can see here Tesla what's going on here. Uh, basically the market is still just kind of trapped. 430 on the bottom, 460 on the top, guys. Trapped in the middle before the options really takes over and Nvidia is still 195 and a double bottom base currently more towards the bull end. So, we'll see whether it can hold. Chinese markets have gone back up to the resistance of around 27,400. They've sold off a little bit there, but they're still making a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is of course really positive. And NASDAQ is floating actually the exact same price it's pretty much been since the highs of October. So, you can clearly see the rotation here. The NASDAQ hasn't made a new high while the S&P has, and the Russell has absolutely blitzed it, which you can see here, just continuing to pull up. And this just basically means you want to look at sectors, sectors, sectors.

In results from the overall, I guess you would say earning season so far. I think we need to continue to see the fallout from the banks and of course this big tech uh this week starting off will be important. But TSM so far has kept the markets looking good. And if we do get a dip for whatever reason right now, it does look like buyers will probably come in based on the evidence that we have. And of course that's a guess, but we will be looking for correlations across the board as we always do on this channel.

Let's have a look now at Bitcoin and crypto. Little bit of improvements from here from Ethereum last week. No real breakout past that 3450. And Solana continues to kind of dance with that small miniature breakout of 146. Really like the Solana chart. Really like of course the Bitcoin chart as well. And you guys know that 94,500 activated at least a decent amount of squeeze potential. And a lot of you always expect it's going to go off into the moon. You can see that initial squeeze which is actually quite significant. And now the question is will it continue to hold higher highs and higher lows. The bear really needs a lower low. If that happens, well, maybe this is all part of a giant flag trap that we haven't seen yet. But for now, I think the buyers look a little bit better than the sellers. And we're hopefully looking towards 104-106 on Bitcoin charts.

For the week ahead, we do have some news. So obviously you always want to be looking through that. Remember Monday is a public holiday in the US and I'm sure all the US people know but of course from everyone around the world may be a little bit confused there and there will be no live stream of course for that uh open show. Uh the other one is that we have Trump coming out and speaking here. You can see on Thursday January the 22nd and then you've also got some core PCE price index on Friday. So, not without its own news, but the main thing here is going to be earnings, earnings, earnings. Big tech, look at Intel, look at Netflix. We will be watching them.

And as you guys can see, Netflix looks similar to the mag stocks as it's getting cheaper on paper, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the best thing around. Remember, there are growth concerns there. And the market usually is pretty good at smelling stuff out. If the Magnificent Seven stocks keep failing and the other stocks keep rotating, you might think that's good, but I don't think it's actually very good long term. So, for now, all green, all good. We'll see whether we get this little pullback, and of course, we'll keep watching markets. Thanks very much, guys. Subscribe, smash the alert, you have a great weekend with your family and friends, and we'll see you very soon. Bye for now.