Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are perhaps very happy to reconnect for this Bitcoin journal this Sunday, November 9, 2025. And like every Sunday, we will do a weekly analysis because tonight, we will have the closing of the weekly candle, which are the most important closings for the long term. On the right here, the weekly performance, that is to say, of the week. It's not pretty. On the other hand, we see that here, we have a little green Sunday. We will see if it smells good or not. Have we broken weekly supports? And here it stinks. Welcome to the big weekly wave. And here, we will really have to put on diapers because we are all going to poop ourselves. Where will the weekly supports hold, and it can try to hold, you see, to create a small bounce on these big supports to then take off again. We will look at that right away. Tonight, I will be live from 9 PM to 10 PM on YouTube, as on Sunday evenings. I will read all your comments. We will talk about all of this, of course. So for now, we have a rather pleasant little green Sunday. So the market is still in extreme fear. It's normal, what's happening isn't pretty. Well, at the Bitcoin level, it's the only one really that is robust with some altcoins, the big caps of course. Otherwise, the rest of the altcoin market is total carnage. Clearly, every morning, I share a bit of analysis like this of altcoins from the top 100, and I tell myself, oh my god, if you're in there, it's atrocious. Well, so unfortunately, big up to everyone and courage to everyone. The market is also in extreme fear, the stock market is starting to correct. Let's hope it's just a small temporary correction and not the beginning of a more severe correction. The stock market, we must not forget that it was pushing, pushing in bull run mode, to the moon, to the moon. So, well, it's not a pharaonic bull run, it's not a parabolic explosion bull run. On the other hand, it was going up, it was going up, it was going up. So at some point, the stock market, well, it's not at all unreasonable that it corrects with all of this. We are in extreme fear, however, remember the last time we touched the extreme zones, it was in March-April. That's where we found bottom zones. After the bottom zones, it takes weeks. Look, it took weeks and weeks and weeks. It took several weeks, it took off again for several weeks, and then it was good. So here, we could be set for several more weeks, have a rebound for several more weeks. Anyway, you see, it can take its time. It can be several weeks that turn into months. So unfortunately, it always takes time. So, where are we with the altcoins? So here, the altcoins, one could say, "Well, okay, we had a red week, we went to retest part of the big wick here from the week of October 6, from the famous Friday, October 10, when there was this crash here." Well, so here, we have a candle, you see, which is a hammer candle, that is to say, a candle with a body like this and a body at the top, and the wick here are rather supposedly bullish candles. But well, I'm not a big fan of hammer candles, of doji candles, you call it what you want. For example, here, you had a crazy hammer candle, but we fell, you see. So, well, so here, one could say, well, why not, it's not too bad, we're avoiding the correction, we're maybe trying tonight to recover the 50-day moving average, in fact, that's what would be needed. Why the 50 weekly moving averages? They are really the most important supports for altcoins. Here, we see that this weekend, well, this week it broke, and I don't think we'll get back above the 50-day moving average by then. So here, I want to tell you, a bullish scenario would be that tonight the altcoins push up to 728 billion, closing above the 500 moving average, uh, 50 moving average, sorry, which is the average price of the top 125 altcoins over the last 5 weeks at 728 billion. And in that case, if it holds, it could try to take off again, but given its appearance, we say, well, it has little probability of closing above the 50 moving average. And so what would that mean? And here the bearish scenario unfortunately arrives, which is that we broke the 52 RSI, it's not pretty. The bears are here, they have momentum pushing, growing, it's not pretty. And especially, but especially, even if we forget all of that, all the technical indicators, we forget them, the structure itself, well, it's not pretty. Why isn't it pretty? I'm sorry, I'm being direct because don't forget the week here of October 10, there was this wick. In all the analyses we were doing almost every day, even the lives, Wednesday evenings and all, we were saying, this big candle here, is it the beginning of the weekly C wave or is it internal to the B, will it push back? And we gave ourselves the benefit of the doubt by saying, okay, the 50-day moving average is preserved here. As long as it's preserved, you see, it was preserved the week of October 10, the week after. The week after again, the week after again, it was good. And now it's starting to break. So now it's starting to not be good. You see why? First thing, breaking the 50-day moving average, first not pretty thing. Second not pretty thing, breaking here of the trendline of the famous B which zigzags, zigzags, well which was already broken with the wick, you'll tell me, of October 10, but here it's a candle body, so it doesn't smell good. So if we are really bullish, but it's maybe a bit much, I think, to say, don't worry, this is wave A, all of this is wave B, later there's wave C, but well, if it falls, it's directly wave C, you see. Well, so for now, altcoins don't look very good, unfortunately. The closing, well, this candle here will surely close below its 50-day moving average, and so that would mean that finally, well, we are well on our way for the wave. This weekly wave C, with wave A, it's wave, well, December 2nd to April, everyone ate that. B is the whole rally that happened, well, April 2nd to around, well, early October, late September, and now there are strong probabilities that wave C will start, and the start of C, well, it was this candle that made a big move and then, get lost, candles with big wicks have very strong probabilities of being retested. And here, we have a candle with a nuclear wick. And so what do we do? Well, boom, boom, boom, boom. We retest, unfortunately. So here, when I see what I have in front of me here, unfortunately, at the altcoin level, I say it doesn't smell like roses, clearly. So that's it, be careful not to have several red weeks to retest the wick. And I want to tell you, even the 200-day moving average here for altcoins at 451 billion. What does that mean? Moreover, if altcoins really do the weekly wave C with little A, little B, and now C starts, it means that altcoins will do on average, so some more, some less. A little -35%. I say on average, some will do less, some more. After, be careful, don't think, "Oh my god, Foufi said it's okay, the big one isn't -35%, I'm selling everything, I'll be lower, it's never certain." Okay? Can the market turn around, explode suddenly? Well, it just takes news, like the US going up, them buying Bitcoin, or I don't know, you have big strong news. Well, maybe it can take off again, but for now, at the structural and analytical level, it's not good this week. The fact of having re-broken the 50-day moving average with a candle body is not good, and the fact of saying, well, it's going down to eat the whole wick is doubly not good. Well, at the daily level, for now, it has found a small short-term bounce, a local bounce, meaning it's a bounce that won't last very long, you see, it can last a few days. We are still on here, zigzag, zigzag, zigzag. And you see, theoretically, the wave, in fact, the structure here tells us, well, A, B, then C. So you see, it's C here which is finally the weekly C which would end at least, we need to break the bottom of the wick and even a little lower. So that's what we were seeing every day, the structure where I tell you, well, every day unfortunately I repeat myself, I'm sorry, that the wave is missing here, the end of the, well, the continuation of the wave to go below the wick to really have a nice structure, and then on the other hand, it takes off again. That is to say, here, imagine, okay, wave C, we have wave C in progress with this, bam, the trigger, and boom, boom, boom, boom. Okay. And all of this is wave C. But believe me, after, well, believe the structure, don't believe Foufi, structures tell us the vast majority of the time. After a wave A, a wave B, a wave C. Here, you have a, you have a regular weekly. That means that after that it's poof, weekly explosion. So that means that after that you have a rise that lasts many weeks which are finally many months if you want. So it's going to hurt a lot. Some will call it a bear market, clearly, if it's indeed wave C, because doing another -35% on average, or even -40%. Yes. Some will say, well, at this point, it's worse than atrocious. And so if it happens, it happens after the validation of this structure, it will be the explosion for everyone. Well, let's look at Bitcoin because if you want, here the altcoins are not very, very pretty. Well, not to say ugly, but Bitcoin, well, it's not too bad, you see, it's not too bad. So that's why here, if you stop at what I said about altcoins, you say, okay, I'm out, it's too bad. Well, but wait, wait to see the Bitcoin chart. Well, so little beloved Bitcoin, it broke its 50-day moving average this week, which is here, which is, well, with a few dollars difference, around $103,000. We see that with this Sunday, it's trying to close above, which is extremely bullish, extremely bullish. Okay. So Bitcoin's structure is the same. I'm going to zoom in here on the 50 moving averages. The 50 moving averages, all analysts show you this. I've shared this chart several times in recent weeks. As soon as we came out of the bear market and went to look for $15,000. As soon as we recovered the week of March 13, 2023, the 50-day moving average, we haven't lost it again, never since 2023. As soon as we recovered it, we tried to retest it, it held. We retested it here once, twice, three times, it held. We retested it once, twice, three times, it held. And now we are retesting it. which holds, but it will be like before. Correction to explode, correction to explode, correction to explode, and correction to explode. But this must hold, okay? This also means that if this 50-day moving average, which has held since the beginning of the bull run, gives way, it's hell, it's deep hell and liquidation for at least, little A, little B, little C. So a C that would have eaten the gap at $91,970, which should not break this level, because here you'll tell me, "Okay Foufi, when do you start taking out the tissues and lying down on the side of the room to die if we break $74,500?" Then I say, my god, I pray to the Bitcoin gods every day, you see. Well, I already do, but I'll do more, you see, because if Bitcoin starts to break this level, well, it's off, yes, for a real bear market, a nuclear one, really the thing that will last, as usual, a year and a half. If it breaks $74,000, we're moving to a new structure with its wave A, with its wave B, with its wave C, and then you'll be looking for at least the 200-day moving average at $55,000, or you could look lower too, you see, well. So $74,500 is really not the level to break. If we break that one day, apparently I'll be, here, the moral level, I'll be in pain, clearly. I think everyone will be in pain, really everyone. Well, and so otherwise, as long as we don't break, well, here, the $74,000, we still potentially have this little running which is still there, which is still valid with an A, a B, a C which could look for the reload zone between here, around $86,000 and $94,000, or reach within it the futures gap at $92,000 for an A, a B, a C. On the other hand, if we have this structure validated, boom, it's the rocket that takes off afterwards. Because after the validation of this running, regular, it's a rocket, clearly a rocket. After that, I can give you a target. Well, a bit of bullishness is good. Imagine that it goes here to the gap, you see. Imagine it goes to the small gap, well, you can have a small target like that. Come on, I'm being nice, the gap at the lowest. Imagine they go to $85,000 after the push, the first target is $152,000. Second target is $193,000. You see, you have targets like that. After, you can take Fibonacci extensions to make yourself a little, well, rather I'll take it with, wait, I'll put that back here. I'll take it more like this. Let's say we make a target. Here, I'm taking the all-time high roughly, I'm doing it roughly. Let's say we go to the, we'll go to the $90,000, just below the gap. Well, but here too, you still have targets with $131,000, $143,750. Well, it will depend on how far we go. So it pushed, it would push before the running. Now, what happened in 2021? The same thing happened, a running flat. Instead of having the rocket push, we had A, B, C, and instead of the rocket, it was an ascending channel. And then, you know the music, it's hell with impulse, correction, and boom, continuation. So if instead of having the rocket after a running, we have an ascending channel, then we'll have to start packing our bags because it smells like nuclear descent. Well, anyway, so I'm going into potential scenarios. For now, today, what do we have in front of us? We have a Bitcoin that is holding its 50-day moving average, which is extremely bullish at $103,000. This means that if it closes tonight above its 50-day moving average at $103,000, and next week it tries to do a little bit of green to move away, well, that's very good. It means it's still in its big wave B with A being there and B continuing, which can continue. So, if on the other hand tonight it loses its 50-day moving average at $103,000, or next week it makes a horrible red candle breaking the $103,000 like the altcoins exploded here the 50-day moving average, you see, if Bitcoin does the same thing next week, it will be dead, you see. If Bitcoin does that, it explodes the 50 moving average like the altcoins, well, I'll tell you, it stinks. Welcome to the big weekly wave. Where is it? It's here. Welcome to the big weekly wave, heading at least to 92, or even more, you see. So that's the idea. Well, I think I've been clear enough. That's what the structure says, it's not me pulling my opinion out of a hat. Well, my opinion is what? Well, I follow the structure. That is to say, as long as the 50-day moving average holds, I'm very happy. Tonight, we close above 103, I'm very happy. If we close below 103 and next week makes a red candle, I'll say I'll have to, ah, tighten my belt. But I already have pain in my belt, you see. Well, knowing that on the other side it's not great anyway. The bears are there, there's momentum, breaking 52, so it's not great. The only positive thing today is that for now, it's holding the 50-day moving average. Everything else is not good. Okay, so if the 50-day moving average is broken, well, then everything will be not good. So that's the idea. Well, at the daily level, moreover, on the daily chart, it's dragging. I'm going quickly because it's like yesterday, it's dragging on, a regular. So it can still make a small higher high to fall back or a contracting flat to fall. So what it's offering here is not good. Okay? So unfortunately, if I have to speak in terms of probabilities for next week, it might be red. Why, you'll ask me? Because here we have the impulse, correction, or contraction for continuation. This morning and in yesterday's and this morning's video, I told you that be careful, Bitcoin could push to go look below this high, around $104,600, to make a regular, a nice regular flat before falling back. But whether it's a regular, where it goes even higher tonight, around $104,600, or a contracting flat, these are two bearish continuation structures. So unfortunately, it pains me to say it, but we might have to expect that unfortunately, the big wave will start. I don't want to, but well. Ah, I'm not here to say what I want. I'm here to tell you what the analysis and the structure say. Well, here, it's the long-term liquidity accumulated over the last 30 days. Okay, we see that at the Bitcoin level, there's something to eat up to 96. So if next week it starts to boom, boom, boom, boom, it will first look for the big leverage up to exactly $100,000. If $100,000 gives way, direction, well, $96,000, or even a little lower, but I think if it goes to $96,000, it will close the gaps at $92,000. We also note still a lot of liquidity to the north. There are $10 billion to liquidate if it goes to $115,000. Whereas if it goes to, around $89,000, it has $4 billion. So if it continues to drop, at some point, we'll have to deal with what's at the top. And so if it does, I'll stop there. Okay. A running, little A, little B, which makes the weekly C well, which will go eat the gap at $92,000, it's when there will be boom, the validation of the running, the rocket, the explosion after the validation that it will surely eat all these billions, well, that's it. Well, at the Ethereum level, so Ethereum, well, it's like Bitcoin, it's holding its moving average here, the 50, it's very good. Same, little A, little B, is this little C here? Has it finished its structure, and boom, it's a parabolic explosion? It's possible. It remains possible, clearly. Okay? Because since it made a running flat, since it broke the top of wave A, which is here, wave C tells you, "I just won't break the lowest." Wave C can stop there, can stop at the 200-day moving average at 2400. So, wave C, we don't know where it can stop. After, we can make some small targets that you draw your little Fibos like that on weekly and you say, "Well, let's see where it stops at 3600, the 382 Fibonacci? Otherwise, it can go look for the 0.5 Fibonacci, the 50-day moving average, or in the long reload zone between 2007 and 2180 approximately." So, bullish scenario, if I may say so, would be that Bitcoin, its 50-day moving average, there's good news coming with Trump and company, and boom, it continues to push, we continue wave C. Ethereum, well, finally, it also found its little bottom on its 50-day moving average, and simply it validates its running like Bitcoin, and there you go, boom, it breaks. Well, it can be, it can be possible. After, well, the only positive thing is that the 50-day moving average is holding, otherwise the bears are there, we broke the 50 RSI, well, it's not, there's only the 50-day moving average that makes it so we're not in hell yet. That's the idea at the daily level. It's a bit like Bitcoin, which is that here we had the impulse. For now, we have a regular, so that's not good. Okay? As long as it stays in a regular, the next thing will be the descent. So if I have to give probabilities, well, with this little structure that's been happening for the last few days, since about Tuesday, Wednesday, it gives more priority to falling, unfortunately. You see, to get rid of this, to cancel like Bitcoin, a regular, a contracting flat to fall, it has to push. It has to push. If it does that, well, it cancels, you see. If suddenly you have a nice push, it's like Bitcoin, to cancel the famous here contracting, sorry, the famous contracting or regular which tells us next week will be ugly, well, it has to push, push, push, push, and that cancels it, you see, hop, if it starts to make a nice push, but it has to push today, tomorrow, bam, come on, big rise. And that will cancel it. And at the liquidity level for Ethereum, it's the same, it could go eat $3,000, there are $3 billion to be sought. Then to the north, above $4,000, there are almost $5 billion. So, a quick look at Solana. Solana is not pretty at all. You'll understand why I say not pretty. Because where the negative, not pretty things were, it was breaking the 52 here, not pretty. The bears are on it, they've regained momentum, it's not pretty. And well, it has the 50-day moving average which is totally broken. So, isn't Solana telling us, "No, no, folks, everyone is starting to go weekly, you see?" Because Solana here, well, you had a nice wave A, a nice impulsive one. It's the most beautiful structure naturally speaking. You see, well, wave A started from December to April, a nice B that zigzags, zigzags, zig, and here it's maybe C that has started, quite simply, with a kind of structure like this. Why? Because well, it exploded this week, its 50-day moving average. So you'll tell me, "Yes, but Foufi, it had already exploded its 50-day moving average there." Yes, but there it was in B, so it was zigzagging, it wasn't very serious. Here it's a bit of a descent. So be careful. Of course, I'm not saying it's certain, yes, wave C has started with 100% chance, we're going to do it. No, it's not 100%, it's much less because Bitcoin is holding its moving average, okay. If Bitcoin next week makes a red candle like Solana is doing now, which breaks the 50-day moving average, you have a candle like that. If Bitcoin does the same thing, we'll put on diapers. So, don't try to understand. You see this? You put on a diaper directly, you're going to poop yourself, me first. So here, can Bitcoin save Solana? Is Solana still in its wave B, ultimately? Let's say it's zigzag, zigzag. Well, why not? Everything will depend on Bitcoin. If it explodes above its 50-day moving average, Solana might try to take off again and still be in wave B. If Bitcoin next week breaks its 50-day moving average, it means everyone is going for wave C. And Solana, if we take it alone, well, it's not pretty. The fact of having broken the trendline, of having broken the 50-day moving average, it's not pretty, clearly. So the targets, if it's the weekly wave C that starts, Solana's target is at least the 200-day moving average at $102. And I want to tell you, the structure tells you, if it makes a regular well, which must break $95. That's what the structure says. So here, we have to light a candle, hoping that it's not Solana that's right. Because for now, it's Bitcoin that's right, if you want. Well, at the structural level, it's the same, you see, here we have a small ascending channel, you see, a daily contracting flat, and here you have a small ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, you see. So it's not pretty at all. If this validates well, well, it's like the others, it's direction hell next week. And so ultimately, it's direction the weekly wave C. Ah, we don't like that. Well, for impulse, correction, continuation, to say no, this channel is canceled, throw it in the trash, you need boom, suddenly a move away, and then, you see, that will simply cancel it. But well, it will be time to act. After, well, we touched the overbought zone, it's still pretty good. The bears are getting tired, so well, we'll see, you see. But this weekly is not very pretty. Solana also has the advantage that it has almost nothing left to the south. It has almost nothing left, you see. It's especially to the north that it has to look for about a billion dollars around $190. Well, and to finish, XRP with XRP. So he has a different structure, okay? He doesn't have it like the others. I have wave A, I have wave B, I have wave C. It's a hyper disgusting structure because already when they won, between quotes, the lawsuit, you had an X6 that happened, then it corrected, then it stagnated, boom, it repeated, then it collapsed. It's hyper disgusting structurally. There's even nothing, it's so disgusting. Well, so in short, Solana, XRP, sorry, we see the 50-day moving average, but well, it already lost the 50-day moving average the second week of October. It recovered it, now it lost it again, even if here, well, it has a big cartridge. So Solana, XRP, excuse me. Uh, it went to get its gap. So I'll remove the gap here. So he, in short, will follow, he will follow the others. So it's not pretty. It's like Solana. Why? Because breaking the 50, the 50-day moving average, sorry, it's not pretty at all. Breaking the 50 RSI is not pretty. The bears are there, they have momentum, it's not pretty. So for now, it's not pretty. Deep hell and liquidation will begin for XRP if it breaks its bowling ball line at 213, so a green candle like this that breaks 213, XRP will go, direction its 200-day moving average at 04, because it will also test the bottom of its wick. So if it explodes at my bowling ball line, it's hello again, a little -55% to look for the bottom of the wick. XRP holders will be happy, you see. Well, not very pretty. At the structural level too, the daily chart on the left. Well, it's still like, it's a bit like Bitcoin, a kind of contracting flat. So that's not pretty. To get rid of that, XRP has to explode here, you see. And that will cancel a contracting flat which is rather bearish, like Bitcoin, like everyone, huh. And at the liquidity level, well, to the south, it has a little to eat up to $2. There's about, let's say, $190 million, and to the north, there's much more to eat than to the south, like its peers. So in short, to summarize, what do I personally think of all this? When I see the altcoins here, I say, wow, it's ugly, it's ugly, the altcoins. So when I say altcoins, I mean, well, Ethereum is good, but you see Solana, I say, oh dear, oh dear, that's not pretty. XRP too, breaking the 50-day moving average, I say, but when I look at Ethereum, I say, weekly, I say, come on, it can still pass, it's not that dramatic. And especially when I see little beloved Bitcoin holding its 50-day moving average, I say, okay, for now it stinks, but it's still holding a bit. If the 50-day moving average breaks next week, it stinks and it doesn't hold, so it will fall. So, summarized by your Foufi, sir. Well, excuse me, it's not the most positive analysis in the world. We'll talk about it tonight at 9 PM if you want, during the live. Sending kisses and see you later. Bye.