Transcription
After 100 real money fantasy drafts, here are my eight least drafted wide receivers. And I need to warn you about three things before we start.
One, I'm fading both sides of the DJ Moore trade. The move to Buffalo hype and the guy inheriting his leftover targets in Chicago.
Two, I'm fading the fantasy experts' community favorite breakout pick that's been this way for the past two years. They were wrong last year, and I think they're wrong again this season.
And three, my least drafted receiver and my second least drafted are basically the same fade, wearing different jerseys. And the reason for the number one fade gets planted in the very first segment. Pay attention to where DJ Moore landed.
Now, going to my eighth least drafted name. We're going to start with DJ Moore, and it's a good one. Moore goes to the Buffalo Bills, who project for 26 and a half points per game this upcoming season, about two points per game more than the Chicago Bears scored last year. And the target competition in Chicago, he was fighting with Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, a name we'll come back to later, Colson Loveland, and Olamide Zakaius for targets. In Buffalo, it's only Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid for competition. So you may think, better offense, less competition, he may sound like a buy. And here's the problem: the market already knows all of this. He's going directly behind Davante Adams, getting drafted ahead of Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, and Carnell Tate, and a range with DeAndre Swift, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, and Lamar Jackson. The story is fully priced in.
If we go over the evidence of this DJ Moore fade, we want to be looking at the player instead of the situation. In 2023, DJ Moore was a legitimate great receiver: wide receiver eight in points per game, eight targets a game, 80 receiving yards a game, a career-high 2.34 yards per route run. Then watch this direct falloff in 2023 averaging 2.34 yards per route run down to 2024, that falls to 1.5. And then the following season, that falls to 1.26, one of the worst marks in the entire NFL among wide receivers that have real volume. And his target earning ability has collapsed with it: 8.2 targets per game down to five. This isn't just a bad season. It's a three-year trend line. Moore was drafted in 2018. This is his ninth year. He turns 29. And if you pull up the age 28 comps on the Range of Outcomes tool at flockfantasy.com, every single historical similar receiver averaged fewer than 10 points per game the following year. Do I think DJ Moore beats last year's wide receiver 46 finish? Probably. I mean, honestly. But he's priced the wide receiver 27. That's asking a 29-year-old receiver with three straight years of declining efficiency to jump 20 spots on a team change alone in the middle of round five. Give me DeAndre Swift, give me Lamar Jackson, or if I want a receiver, Carnell Tate and Jordan Tyson I can possibly get in round six.
Now, moving over to our seventh least drafted name, it's going to be Parker Washington. And with Washington, everybody's excited about the three same weeks: Week 16 where he scored 26 and a half points, Week 17 where he scored 19, and Week 18 where he scored 19.7. That's a real heater, obviously. But if we look at the context of those three weeks, Brian Thomas Jr. was hurt pretty much all of last season, and every camp report says that he looks dramatically better this year. Travis Hunter was done for the year with a torn ACL, and before he went down, the rookie was already ahead of the third-year guy in the pecking order. That heater happened in an empty room, and the room is about to be full again. Zoom out to the full season and realize Washington was the wide receiver 39 in points per game at 10.79.
Now, I'll give him this. His efficiency arrow points in the right way, right? 0.74 yards per route run as a rookie, arguably the worst mark in football, to 1.1 in his sophomore season, to 2.2 the following year. I mean, that's real growth. But his age 23 comps, guys like DeVonta Smith, Pierre Garçon, Deebo Samuel, Jameson Crowder, D'Onta Foreman, Sammy Watkins, not a lot of busts. And yet none of them hit 15 points per game the following year. And the kicker is, the Vegas sportsbooks currently have the Jacksonville Jaguars as one of the biggest regression candidates in the league, where they are projected to only score 23.2 points per game this year after scoring almost 28 last season. That's four and a half points per game gone from this offense. So, if we look at the big picture: wide receiver 39 production, more target competition, fewer team points, priced at wide receiver 34 in the same range as the elite quarterbacks, Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Drake May, and Jalen Hurts. In that range, I'm going to take an elite quarterback, or if I wanted to swing on a receiver, honestly, I may take Marvin Harrison Jr.
Now, moving over to our sixth least drafted name, we are going to have Ladd McConkey. And with Ladd, he has three bullish points that are all very real that we need to discuss. One, Keenan Allen and his 7.1 targets per game are gone. Two, the Los Angeles Chargers project to move from 21 and a half points per game up to 24 with the coaching change and the rebuilt offensive line. And Ladd McConkey's age 24 comps on the Range of Outcomes tool include DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin, both of whom averaged over 16 points per game the following year in their age 25 season. I'm still manning this on purpose. It's the best bull case of any player in this video, but here's what the bull case skips. Ladd McConkey went from the wide receiver 19 in points per game as a rookie to the wide receiver 37 in year two. And the excuse Keenan Allen ate his targets isn't as strong as you want to believe. Because think about it, if a 33-year-old Keenan Allen can keep you off the field, are you really a Justin Jefferson, JSN level talent? Like a 33-year-old Keenan Allen wouldn't have stopped year two JSN from breaking out, right? And there's a second problem. Quentin Johnston straight up outproduced him. Same offense, same quarterback, same offensive line, and Johnston was the wide receiver one on that field in efficiency and fantasy points. You may think, but Ladd is the young upside guy. Well, Ladd McConkey is only two months younger than Quentin Johnston. Two months. Every excuse you can make for last season equally applies to Quentin Johnston, and only one of the two of them needed that excuse.
So if we just go for the price check, here's where it falls apart. The wide receiver 37 season cost you the wide receiver 19 price, the same range as Tee Higgins, Zay Flowers, Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, Josh Jacobs. You're paying for the bounceback like it already happened. And the alternative is simply beautiful, right? Quentin Johnston, who again outproduced him, goes five rounds later. Y'all know him from the most drafted video where he's been my number one guy this year, just like he was last. And this is the other half of the argument.
Now, moving over to my fifth least drafted wide receiver, we are going to have Luther Burden. And this is the other side of that DJ Moore trade, right? Burden's bull case writes itself. The Bears project as a top 10 scoring offense. DJ Moore's five targets per game just left town. Olamide Zacchaeus's routes are up for grabs as well. And Burden was genuinely electric in a small role last season with 2.7 yards per route run, 10.9 yards per target, both at the very top of the NFL.
Now, here's my issue, and it's the same logic I use for Ladd McConkey. If Burden were a Justin Jefferson, JSN level talent, would Olamide Zacchaeus have had a role at all last year? Burden ran 15 routes per game as a rookie. The coaching staff watched that elite efficiency in practice and still couldn't get him on the field over Olamide. That's valuable information, and a healthy Rome Odunze might just be the wide receiver one on the team anyway. So Burden's going as the wide receiver 21, middle of round four. Rome's going in round five. I actually have Burden ranked slightly ahead of Rome, but they should be going back to back, not like two rounds apart. When the market hands you the same situation around cheaper, you're just going to need to take the discount.
Now, good news for y'all. Y'all can check out all these offensive projections, all these player projections from sportsbooks already posted live on flockfantasy.com. Obviously, flockfantasy.com is where you can find all the draft guides and all the draft cheat sheets from all your favorite creators in fantasy, plus the draft assistance to help you in real time in your Sleeper, ESPN, and Yahoo drafts. Links in the description. It's in the comment section. It's only $34 to have the best product in fantasy. And if you use code FLOCK when you sign up, I'm going to be answering your questions for free during the live streams in the season.
Now, let's move over to my fourth least drafted receiver, and this is going to be Josh Downs. Again, just like last year when all of us touted him as the next breakout candidate, and now with Michael Pittman Jr. gone, everybody's running it back, right? I genuinely don't know why this player has a grip on the expert community the way that he does. I mean, if we're looking at Josh Downs, his career best finish as wide receiver 31 in points per game. That's the ceiling so far. Last year was the year of the supposed breakout, where he finished as the wide receiver 56, and the situation arguably is three holes in it. One, the Colts just paid Alec Pierce some very serious money. Two, Tyler Boyd outplayed Josh Downs last season in his rookie season. And Indianapolis is Vegas's biggest regression candidate in football, where last year they averaged 27 and a half points per game, and this season they project to score 22 and a half. And here's the clearest way I can put it: the Titans going right after Josh Downs project for more production than he does. Harold Fannon and Sam LaPorta project anywhere from like 650 to 750 receiving yards with about four and a half touchdowns each, both higher than what you're going to see with Josh Downs. And you don't even need my opinion on this one. The sportsbooks are doing the fading of Josh Downs for me.
Now, Ricky Pearsall is going to be our third least drafted name. And of course, you know, I had to rock the Ricky Pearsall jersey for this. So with Pearsall, there are three strikes against him. Strike one: he has never been fantasy relevant. Not once. He has never averaged 10 points per game, and he turns 26 this season. This isn't a prospect anymore. Strike two: the 49ers just added Mike Evans to a room that's getting George Kittle back. Pearsall now has more target competition than at any point of his NFL career. And strike three: he simply can't stay healthy. He has an extensive injury history every single season. And the price, he's going in the same range as Harold Fannon, Sam LaPorta. I mean, hell, in your best ball drafts, obviously you can look at Brock Purdy, Bo Nix, Matthew Stafford. And in your redraft leagues, you won't want to draft a quarterback there. Why are we drafting a guy that's never done it under the assumption he's about to do it for the first time in the most crowded room that he's ever been in? If you want the offense, take the quarterback. Or if you need a receiver, like you can just pivot over to a different name like Jakobi Meyers or Xavier Worthy.
Now, our two biggest fades are very similar. Number two is going to be Romeo Doubs. So with Romeo Doubs, his career best finish is wide receiver 44 in points per game. And that came when his only competition was a rookie Jayden Reed. Now he's a Patriot, and the Patriots just added AJ Brown, the most target competition Romeo Doubs has ever faced. And we all remember how the Patriots were one of the best offenses in the NFL last season, but it was built on the easiest schedule in the NFL. And sportsbooks already know this. They project the Patriots to score almost six fewer points per game this season, nearly a full touchdown of regression. This is the same thing that we saw with the Indianapolis Colts regression that we are expecting this year. Yet with Romeo Doubs, he's still going in the same range as Matthew Stafford, Cole Kmet, and again, if you wanted a quarterback, you could take Kyler Murray in this range. But again, I do want to reiterate, the quarterback picks are going to be a little bit more baseball-centric in your regular redraft league. I would rather go with the Matthew Stafford, where we could potentially have a higher ceiling because if we think about this from a redraft perspective, like, can Romeo Doubs ever turn into a league-winning player? It's very difficult to imagine that with AJ Brown being the easy wide receiver one.
Now, our number one fade, the guy that I haven't drafted at all this year, is Khalil Shakir. This is his fifth NFL season, and he has had four games with 20 or more fantasy points, four in his entire career, in the best possible conditions where he had Josh Allen all to himself. Dalton Kincaid's been non-stop hurt. His target competition was Keon Coleman. If the wide receiver one upside existed, we would have seen it by now. And what changed this offseason? Remember segment one? Remember where DJ Moore landed? Buffalo. The best situation Shakir will ever have with zero target competition that just ended. And the market's still charging you for it. When tight ends like Travis Kelce, Jake Ferguson, Mark Andrews, and Shakir's own teammate Dalton Kincaid all project to outscore him in the same range, but you get those points at tight end. And we have to remember Josh Allen spreads the ball. The only wide receiver that's ever been relevant with Josh Allen was peak Stefon Diggs. Because you go through and you look at the game logs of this Buffalo Bills offense, you're gonna have 12, 13 guys touch the ball every single week, which is why it's just extremely difficult to justify the cost of DJ Moore or Khalil Shakir.
Now, seven fades, one rule: the market, draft situations, points come from players. Before your next draft, ask of every receiver, "Am I paying for what he's done or for a story about what might happen?" Drop the receiver you're fading hardest in the comments, especially if you think I'm wrong on Burden, because I know a lot of y'all will. Season pass at flockfantasy.com, $34, code FLOCK for free questions on the live stream. Get all the draft guides, get all the rankings, get all the trade advice from all your favorite creators on a single site for only $34. Much love. I really appreciate you, and I hope I get to see you in the live stream later.