Transcription
A few months ago, it was revealed that Xiinping's wife had been arranging an escape plan for him through Shing Jang. Remember I did that program? And it was through this guy, if you still remember him. So the plan was to for Xiinping to go through Shing Jang into Kazakhstan. The operation was said to involve Mahinray, the man you see on the screen, then party secretary of Shing Jang. But that plan collapsed and Ma was urgently summoned to Beijing and swiftly removed from his post.
That closed the Kazan route and according to the leak, Kazan was supposed to be she's first stop, a temporary refugee before deciding on his ultimate destination. And Russia, despite the public no limits partnership, has never been his preferred option. Think about it. If he had to flee to Moscow, Putin, who's who's already tied down in Ukraine, would face a nightmare, a nightmare choice. If he hands Xiinping back, then he looks like a ruthless, unreliable friend. If he shelters him and he would anger Beijing while inviting pressure from the west. So either way, Putin will be put in a very difficult situation. He will be squeezed from all sides. Um, so Russia has never been Xiinping's top pick.
So his plan B is allegedly Pingyong and North Korea has some clear advantages according to this leak. First is geography. It's close. If he suddenly lo lose or lost power, loses power, he wouldn't have the time or safety to fly thousands of kilometers to Moscow. He still remembers what happened to Lingo in 1971. remember when Miles at Chosen Air uh tried to escape China, try to fly to uh Russia and his plane was shot down in Mongolia. So, Xiinping definitely remembers this.
And secondly, Putin and she may call each other best friends, but their alliance is purely transactional, but North Korea is different, right? It's nuclear armed isolated state and it's not under international pressure or you could say it's under so much international pressure then it doesn't matter anymore. So that makes it a safer bet. And according to insiders during the September 3rd parade, Xiinping paid Kim Jong-un a hefty amount of money for him to appear in Beijing. So the two are now on good terms.
And the third reason is Korea is an East Asian country and the culture is similar to China. Russia after all is an European country. And the leaks even goes further to say that Shiin may be forced to surrender two of his posts while presidency at the fourth plenum. And then this means that his entire faction would collapse and if that happens, political retribution becomes inevitable. Uh recent viral stories like the suspicious death of actor Yumong and the bizarre car crash in Sydney, Australia involving a mysterious young woman and a million-dollar vehicle have only reinforced Xiinping's sense that he's running out of time because these events all aimed at him. So he feels compelled to prepare an exile plan.
Now North Korea's foreign minister was in Beijing two days ago. It was kind of interesting because this was her second time in Beijing in a month, right? So you wonder why why does she come back to Beijing for the second time other than the usual business allegedly. Well, this is allegedly Xiinping discussed his exile plan with the the foreign minister. First is escape routes by air, land, and sea with backups for each. Second is political status. how she would be treated once inside North Korea. Three, economic guarantees, the money and benefits she would funnel to Pinang. Last is public narrative. How to explain how to explain his flight to North Korea and manage the fallout. Okay.
So, I do not know if the above claim is true or not. I shared it with you just to provide a different perspective because I think it's it's interesting. It it's relevant and we should not overlook it. But you may say, "Wait a minute. Shinping isn't fleeing to North Korea. Isn't he supposed to be going to South Korea right after the fourth plenum to attend Apac?" Supposedly, yes. Xiinping is expected to visit South Korea from October 31st to November 1st for the Apac leaders informal summit in a place called Guyongju. Xiinping may even meet South Korean and American leaders on the sidelines. But here's the catch. People are now debating whether he will actually make the trip.
There's already controversy around it. Uh this is breaking news. According to Korean media, South Korean media, just 16 days ago, the Chinese embassy booked out the entire Sheila Hotel in Soul for Xiinping's delegation. This is the hotel that Xiinping stays every time he visited Seoul. And to accommodate him, the hotel abruptly cancelled eight weddings scheduled for early November, affecting hundreds of guests, if not more. Couples who had already sent invitations were suddenly told a state level event was taking priority. Everyone assumed this meant Xiinping. The backslash in South Korea was immediate and fierce. Families scrambled with I mean with less than two months to find new venues for a wedding. That's an impossible task and the uproar quickly turned political with critics accusing President Lee Jay of being too cozy with Beijing.
But then last weekend, suddenly the Sheila Hotel reversed course and announced the weddings could proceed as usual. Now, Korean media reported as if the Chinese backed down and cancelled the hotel due to public pressure. Now, anyone who knows CCP and knows Xiinping well enough is sure that Xiinping would never cave in to public pressure, not to mention foreign public pressure. The only reason that the hotel is now able to host those weddings is that the Chinese side cancelled its reservation on their own. and that sparked new speculation. So why would Beijing book the hotel and then cancelled it 16 days later? Booking an entire hotel is Xiinping's trademark. Uh his paranoia over security often requires blocking every room for his entourage. And this Sheila hotel has over 400 rooms. It's not a small hotel. So that means the decision for Xi to visit Soul was made a little more than two weeks ago, probably after Xiinping accepted an invitation from South Korea's new president Lie Jay for a state visit while he was in the country for Apac. But the sudden cancellation suggests something has changed. But I do not think it's Xiinping's initiative. He may be forced to cancel the state visit to Seoul.
Now, some analysts now believe Xiinping may skip Seoul altogether. He's not going to Seoul at all. Instead, he might stay in the city that hosts Apac or even fly straight back to Beijing immediately after the Apac meetings uh to simplify logistics and security. Either way, the hotel cancellation was sudden and was not his idea. Now, today, South Korea's foreign ministry confirmed that it is still negotiating with Beijing about Xiinping's exact schedule. Insiders insist insist that she's participation in Apac is basically confirmed and that the hotel flap will not the trip. However, I think things may be more complex than that. Xiinping may still go to Apac with no state visit or he may not go at all. It all depends on what happens at the fourth plan.
Now, in theory, the the platinum is a party event that will decide his role in the party and in the military. So it will decide two of Xiinping's three titles, party secretary general and chairman of the CMC uh of this military commission, central military commission. Um if he if he's forced to step down from those two positions, he will almost certainly try to hold on to his last title, state president, because he could keep it until next spring at the two sessions because the people's congress would decide this title. So if Xiinping gets to keep the state presidency even symbolically uh that means he will attend APAC. He can't go to Apac as the president of China. So if he he still has that title he will go. If he loses all three titles he will not go. That would mean that he's completely out and someone else would represent China in South Korea at Apac. I think that's highly unlikely. If that's the case that Xiinping completely steps down, Beijing will not reveal it until after the fourth platinum. So all the plans will go forward as if Xiinping is still going to Apac. Then at the last minute after the fourth plenum, Beijing could announce that so and so will attend Apac in his place and most likely I think Wyang.
The reason that the North Korean foreign minister was in Beijing for the second time in a month was trying to convince Xiinping to attend Kim Jong-un's military parade on October 10th for the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers Party of Korea. That would be a great opportunity for Xiinping to flee to North Korea and not return if that's his plan. Uh but if he doesn't plan to flee to North Korea, then going to that country is very very risky politically. Why? Because there has been a bad precedence uh during the 1989 student protest or students movement at the most critical moment when the CCP was deciding the direction of the country and how to handle the student protests. Then party secretary visited guess where North Korea for seven days after he returned to China. It was too late. Den Xiaoing and the hardliners already decided to crack down on the students and Zo lost his authority while he was gone, while he was in North Korea. And so here's the picture that you see on the screen. He visited the students in Tenement Square and said his famous last words, I came too late. So Xiinping knows this anecdote very well. So will he go to North Korea 10 days before the fourth party plenum only to find out that things are no longer the same upon his return? It's a big gamble. So I highly doubt that he will go to North Korea.