Transcription
Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban has long been one of the Kremlin's most dependable allies in the EU. For years, this strategy worked well. The Kremlin rewarded his loyalty and his obstructionism at the European level with cheap energy imports, and his ability to play both sides in both Moscow and Brussels earned him a reputation as a savvy geopolitical operator.
Unfortunately for Orban, however, it looks like that strategy is beginning to unravel. Orban is now under pressure from perhaps his closest international ally, US President Donald Trump, to cut Hungary's dependence on Russian energy. At the same time, public opinion at home is turning against Moscow. And the opposition, who are now well ahead in the polls, have accused Orban of putting Russia's interests ahead of those of ordinary Hungarians.
So, in this video, we'll break down Orban's pro-Russia stance, and why his support for Putin now seems to be backfiring.
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Never miss an episode and always feel in the loop by subscribing and ringing the bell. Let's start with some context. Now, Victor Orban wasn't always Putin's closest ally in Europe, which makes sense considering that historically speaking, Russia and Hungary haven't always been on the best terms. As a Soviet satellite state, Hungary lived under Moscow's grip for decades. After the brutal Soviet suppression of the 1956 Hungarian uprising, public opinion toward Russia remained deeply hostile. For much of the post-cold war period, Hungary, like other central European countries, looked firmly westward, joining NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004.
But when Orban returned to power in 2010 after 8 years in opposition, his stance began to shift. In 2011, pointing to the fallout of the global financial crisis and the rise of China, his government launched the so-called eastern opening policy aimed at reducing Hungary's dependence on the West and framing it as putting Hungarian interests first. Then in 2014, Orban declared that he intended to build Hungary into an illiberal state, modeled on Russia and China, and struck a controversial energy deal with Moscow, whereby Russia's state-owned nuclear company would expand the PAC's nuclear power plant. This was all financed with a $10 billion Russian loan, leaving Hungary deeply indebted to the Kremlin.
Economic ties soon gave way to political alignment. After Russia annexed Crimea, Orban refused to support tough EU sanctions, prompting accusations that Hungary was acting as a Trojan horse for Moscow inside NATO and the EU. Yep, he doubled down, welcoming Putin to Budapest in 2015 and 2017, becoming the first EU leader to approve of Russia's Sputnik vaccine during the pandemic, and in 2021, signing a 15-year gas supply deal with Gazprom.
Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Hungary again resisted further sanctions, especially on energy, arguing that EU sanctions were driving inflation and hurting ordinary Hungarians rather than punishing Moscow. Soon, Orban began to use his EU level veto to stall Ukraine's EU accession negotiations and block aid packages intended for Ukraine, citing Ukraine's unfair treatment of the ethnic Hungarian minority living in Transcapathia. This has all turned Hungary in somewhat of a pariah inside the EU. European leaders accuse him of blackmailing Brussels for concessions, and in response, the EU has frozen billions of euros of funding.
Orban had likely hoped that Donald Trump's return to the White House this January would shield him from mounting EU pressure. After all, Trump has long been an outspoken admirer and ally of Orbans and originally talked up the prospect of economic reproachment with Russia, mirroring Orban's long-standing position. But in recent weeks, that calculation has started to unravel. Frustrated by Putin's refusal to negotiate an end to the war, Trump has toughened his stance, and Orban finds himself in the crosshairs. Earlier this month, Trump publicly blasted European countries, including Hungary, for continuing to buy Russian gas and oil and even suggested he would use his personal relationship with Orban to pressure him into halting crude imports.
However, Orban appears to have quietly resisted Trump's push, reportedly telling him that cutting Russian oil imports will be an economic disaster for Hungary, potentially bringing the country to its knees and shrinking the economy by an estimated 4%. For now, Trump seems to have backed off, apparently accepting Orban's argument that Hungary has limited options to diversify its energy supply. Although in reality, Hungary could tap into Croatia's LNG terminal. Doing so would cut into the profits of Hungary's statebacked oil giant, Mole. Still, there's no guarantee that Trump's patience will last, especially if his falling out with Putin continues.
Moreover, there are at least two reasons why Orban might want to rethink his stance. Firstly, public opinion towards Russia and Putin has soured over the last few years. In 2019, just 36% of Hungarians considered Russian influence unfavorable. By 2024, that number had risen to 62% and only 2% of Hungarians named Russia as a country that shares Hungary's interests. Meanwhile, in a recent survey asking whether Hungary should cooperate most closely with Russia, Germany, or the US, 59% of respondents chose Germany, 17% the US, and just 10% Russia. Support for closer ties with Germany is particularly strong among voters for the opposition parties. But even among Fides voters, a majority, 54% favor Germany, and only 21% of Fizz voters believe that Russia should be Hungary's closest partner.
This change in public sentiment has been seized upon by opposition leader Peter Majer, head of the Teaser Party, who are currently leading in the polls. Hungarians are increasingly focused on pressing domestic issues like living costs, inflation, and poor healthcare, which has in turn made Orban's focus on Ukraine and Brussels appear somewhat tonedeaf. For example, in June, Orban launched Hungary's national consultation on Ukraine's EU accession, sending ballots asking voters whether they oppose Ukraine joining the EU. Turnout was the lowest ever for such a consultation, reflecting growing public disinterest in Orban's EU baiting campaigns. Majera criticized the effort, noting that tens of billions of foreign spent on consultations could have been better used to improve transportation or healthcare. In August, Maja took another firm stance against Russia, warning Moscow not to interfere in Hungarian politics after Russian intelligence accused the EU of plotting regime change against Orban.
Secondly, it looks like Orban might have overplayed his veto with the EU. European Council President Antonio Costa recently proposed changing the EU's rules so that key enlargement steps known as negotiating clusters could be approved by a qualifying majority rather than requiring unanimous consent. Essentially trying to fasttrack Ukraine and Muldova's secession processes by circumventing Orban's veto. More generally, other EU member states are pushing for an expansion of qualified majority voting instead of unonymity to reduce the ability for individual obstructionist member states to dictate EU policy.
All in all, Orban's pro-Russian strategy is starting to look less like an asset and more like a liability. And with the 2026 elections on the horizon, he may soon be forced to pivot. Perhaps anticipating this in early September his government signed its largest ever western gas deal with oil and gas provider Shell. A possible sign that Orban is now hedging against Russia. Although polls suggest this is too little too late.
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