Transcription
So yeah, this will be recorded, of course, and it will be posted as soon as, post within the hour that I finish, right? So, um, this week, you guys already knew what we expected, right? We expected higher prices for the index futures, and specifically, we were focused on the index futures due to the fact that those were the highest probability markets, right?
Currently, if you look at the Forex market and compare them to the index futures, you'll see that they are moving in the opposite direction at the moment, which should not be the case. But if you look at the index futures, try and compare it to the interest rate triad, you see that they are moving lockstep, right, in the same direction. So, this is what you should expect. This is what you can expect more times than not whenever we don't have high impact news on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, right? More specifically, whenever we have, and let me toggle this right now, whenever we have GBP and the Euro having bank holidays, right? So, this is what usually happens. Whenever we have bank holidays, you usually have pairs which should be moving in the same direction, moving in the opposite direction, right? This is why we stay clear of these markets, right? Whenever we have bank holidays, there is usually low probability price action. Take these off because we don't need it, right? The main focus should always be USD high impact news.
So, already you can see that we expected higher prices, right? And what did we get? Higher prices. What caused that price to go higher, right? We had, right, just off the bat, like when we came off of the live, live stream, we had what? Sequential SMT here, right? So, literally, we here, we said that we expected the index futures triad to rally, and what happened here? We had sequential SMT between London and the Asian session, whereas London took the Asian session's low. Then we broke above this, the low of this specific candle, which we will talk about, you know, in the future. Afterwards, we just kept going up for Monday, which is this right here. This is what you would expect 50% of the times when we have no high impact news, right? And this is specific for the index futures. More catch right after, which here, right? We had price on this candle, which opened at 11, which was still New York, right? Trade below the London session, which created sequential SMT, and then after this candle, took this low, rallied afterwards, right? Traded back into this candle, which was the last down close candle before we took this low. If you go down to the 15-minute time frame, which is what we use when we're referencing the daily cycle, then you will see the closures below that low, right? But for now, we'll just stay here. We rallied higher, and then here, right? And right here, we took this low. Not sure why this is blue, right? We took the low of, well, yesterday's low, right? Today, and then we rallied higher again. Keep in mind that however draw liquidity is higher, right? We expected higher prices, right? And that's exactly what we got. So, there was literally no pullback right here when I said that we expect higher prices. If you had bought here, you'd be in profit, right? Which is, um, not something that you should do, but yeah, just saying.
So, currently, right? We have symmetrical price action, and we have this high. Mean left is the high of this week. So, going in tomorrow, we will seek for, you know, sequential in the morning session, right? That's what we will be looking for whenever we don't have, right, any news events. Again, this is the type of price action that we should expect. If it's not consolidating, it will be ranging, range forming a large, large range in preparation for the news event to come, right? Hopefully, that makes sense to you. So, so far, that's what it is, right? It's simple, straight to the fact. We got what we were looking for, exactly what we were looking for, and, you know, we hadn't touched upon the Forex market due to the fact that it's low probability, right? And even though this is a low probability market, you can see that the things that we talk about still works, right? It still works. If you look at the interest rate triad, you can see that we have sequential SMT between yesterday and today, right? You can see that more specifically, right? The T-bond futures, even though, right? There was no, what would I say, immense rally in, in regards to the T-bond futures, you will see that price did not go below that low, and that the low of yesterday is what I meant. And that alone is enough to trigger a rally, which is why we got this right here. Price triggered below here, then it rallied again. Also, looking at the daily time frame, you guys pretty much, you should remember this, right? What did I say in regards to the Nasdaq? We did not expect this fair value gap to hold whenever we have range price action, right? Whenever we have similar consolidation and on both sides of the marketplace, wherever you have like buy side liquidity, you know, in the form of a consolidation and sell side liquidity in the same, the fair value gap in the middle will just won't hold. Like, just as you have here, this is low probability, it will not hold. What happened instead? We had price trade that fair value gap right here, right? So, the low of this candle, the high of this candle, right here, just sell side being delivered, and price traded back down into that and used it as what? Support. Then we went higher as we expected, right? So, when price was literally around here, we expected higher prices. When price was literally here, we expected higher prices. This was literally here, we expected this to be drawn to these highs, which we did get. Whenever you have price action like this, right? And remember that below here, what do we have? We had sequential SMT between, and this is something for you to, you know, open your charts and look for yourself, right? Below these lows, we had sequential SMT between this triad and the interest rate triad, right? That's what we had between these lows right here. We had a lower time frame sequential SMT between these pairs right here, these specific pairs right here, right? If you understand, you understand. You should understand, right? This is not something for outsiders to understand. This is like, and, you know, I'm not trying to make it hard, right? I'm just trying to make, you know, the information, how would I say, special.
So, here, right? And remember, this is why we expected price to act to not reverse. Right? We don't expect price to reverse. This is why. So, below these lows, we had sequential SMT, right? Here again. Well, here we had intermarket sequential SMT. Here we had sequential SMT. So, you see this right here is different from the basic two-stage, you know, manipulation or crack and correlation that you would expect to happen, right? So, this is something that you can, you know, just take notes. Not here, we had intermarket sequential, right? And here, here we had what, right? And you can pay attention to the fact that we did not go below this low. Everything happened above here. There are times when it will, you know, this type of price action, this cracking correlation, specific cracking correlation, which occurs between the triad that you're right, right? One specific triad, not between two different triads, because if that happened, it would be intermarket, right? This specific candle right here, right? Everything happened within this. So, here we had intermarket sequential SMT, but when did this become valid? After here, after we had this right here, that's when it became valid. Then we had prices push higher, right? Which is why we expected higher prices around here due to the fact that price action is not bearish, right? It's not bearish. So, if anyone tried to short here, or, you know, within this fair value gap, it will not hold, right? It will not hold. And this is exactly why it won't. People say, "Oh, it just failed. I'm, I made a mistake." Well, you did make a mistake because you just, you know, you just don't know what you don't know, right? So, this validates this right here. Even though it's not even close to it, but remember, once we had this, right? Once we had one of the triads traded above the 50% and the other was not, and, you know, also we had the cracking correlation down here, we could expect higher prices, right? And this alone is not, you know, this won't just work by itself. Also, right? If we go even further out, you'll see this, right? Right? I'll turn the cursor on, and you'll see here we took this low, right? As you guys can see, this low was taken in the Dow, in the Nasdaq. It wasn't in the S&P 500. It wasn't, what is that? A cracking correlation? Okay, okay, okay. What makes it more important? Remember, we talked about this when we were looking at the interest rate triad, right? And I'm really happy that not everyone will, you know, understand. We'll probably have to, you know, go over it again. I'm happy that, you know, if you share this right now, it would be like nonsense to some people. So, from this low to this high, and okay, before we go into that, let's, let me just try not to, you know, take away the fact that this low, and this low, and this low is very important. There was no close there. There's no close right here. Yeah, there was no close right there. Why wasn't there any close there? Doesn't need to be a close right here. Why? This is a precision swing point. Higher time frame precision swing points. Even when it's an up close candle and in a bullish market condition after a buy sequential SMT, what happens? It functions as how an order block should function. These lows right here, what makes them important? What makes this low important? This specific low right here. There is, there is even a cracking correlation between this low and this low. This low right here went under these candles, right? This low went into this fair value gap. This right here was not the lowest low. This was not a swing low. This was a swing low in regards to the Dow. Look at the Dow. Look at the S&P 500. Look at the E-mini. Do you see the difference now? Look at this low right here. Long close candle. You see the difference? This was a swing low for the S&P 500. This was a swing low for the Nasdaq. And this was not a swing low for the Dow. So, these lows right here, this specific low right here, this is not symmetrical, and there's liquidity resting below this low, right? This low was the lowest low of Q1 of the year. Is it a coincidence that we had this candle right here in regards to the Dow trade below, then form a precision swing point? Remember what we said about the wicks of the precision swing points as well? Do you remember that from month, was it month three or month two? Do you see that this is the, for this is the weekly time frame, right? Which, you know, you can use to form a bias. You can use to, you know, know when price is likely to, you know, shift, you know, directions, right? What gave us the idea that this was not a shift in market structure? What gave us an idea that this week would, you know, be pushing higher? What did that? The fact that we took this low. Oh, there wasn't a close. Yeah, there wasn't a close, but there was a precision swing point. So, he would be focused on the wick right here. Price traded into the wick, rallies into this fair value gap, but what happens afterwards? Does it completely break down and continue lower? No. Why? Because this cracking correlation right here trumps this small correlation up here, right? Why? This is, this cover up here, the cracking correlation was on the monthly cycle. Here, it's on the yearly cycle. On the yearly cycle, what do you use? What, which time frame should I use to form a yearly, you know, a bias, a quarterly bias? Should I use? You should use the weekly time frame. If there's a precision swing point, you don't need a close. So, there are specific times that you don't need a close. When, when there's not a, no, there are specific times when you don't need a close. Yeah, when there's, when there's a precision swing point, you don't need a close. Whenever the sequential SMT occurs, you know, or it happens to be intermarket, you don't need a close. Wicks will do. Whenever you're focused within a specific triad, such as the index futures triad, or the Forex triad, you're just focused there, you're not looking outside, then you need a close, right? So, here you can see that, right? This is why we expected this to happen. Also, let's get back to, you know, what I drifted from. From this low to this high, and right here, we will, here would be the 50% of this range, or the lower half. From this low to this high, we have this, and then here to this high, we have the liquidity being taken. So, whenever you have, you know, at least one, you know, remember, if your triad, taking the low, right? This was the, right? This is the low of the previous quarter, all right? This is quarterly theory. The low of the previous quarter, right? This low right here, then here, right? We had the high of the previous quarter, right here, right? This is the high of the current quarter, April. So, so we had price for a swing high, fall down, take the low. This one right here didn't even, it went close to the 50% of the lower half of the range, but, you know, failed to go there. Here, barely, you know, didn't go near to the 50% of the lower half of the range, right? This, this is, you know, bullish grounds. This is a bullish ground right here, right? This is not bearish. You shouldn't expect price to go lower after you see price action like this. Worse, this is a weekly precision swing point. You see, you need to be zooming out and paying attention to the higher time frame and the higher time frame cycles. So, once again, right? I think I did this before, right? The three things that come together, right here, is what you have. A range, right? The low of the previous, and this is the only time you would look at this, is whenever you see price break, you know, through the 50% of this range, right? And only time when you would, you know, take action is whenever you have a precision swing point and a low being taped from the previous quarter, which creates sequential SMT. Do you understand? Hope you do. So, here, some would be waiting for price to fill this gap, right? Why didn't price fill this gap? You already did here. How would it fill this gap here? So, SMT fill, price failed to trade below the 50% of the lower half of the range, 50% of the discount half of the range, price merely reacted to the equilibrium, like barely went below it, then rallied. Here, we went below the low of the range of the previous quarter, which was a swing point, right? This in itself was already a cracking correlation. Whenever you take lows which were formed with sequential, or even SMT, that's where real liquidity is below those lows. The fact that we had a cracking correlation here, then another right here on this candle, then we traded in the wick. Remember, wicks are gaps, then, and right, only then, whenever you have, you know, these criteria, specific criteria, you know, presenting itself on the charts, is when you would look for this. So, the same thing happened here at the top. They would expect price to reverse into the range, just as how we had price rallying here. You have here, you have what would this be? A stop run, precision swing point. Here, you have price filling this fair value gap, then here, you have an SMT fill. So, you have one of the asset classes presenting an SMT fill, another one presenting, right, a fair value gap being filled through the buy model, and another one presenting a stop run. When you have the range, one should break below the range, or two could break below the range, right? Just, just need at least one of them to be, you know, out of sync. So, this broke below the range, presented a precision SMT point. This did not break below the range, right? Presented a precision swing point, filled a fair value gap. This couldn't even, you know, break below the 50% of the range, which makes it even more bullish for the time being, right? It's not that we are saying that it's going to be bullish forever. It's bullish for now until price cracks again. Do you understand? Do you understand? I hope that you do. We will be going deeper into this, right? Again, this is just, right? Something that you need to pay attention to, right? And again, don't feel like God when, you know, if you do it two or three times and it keeps working, or you have three trades and you don't lose, because you will, you will lose eventually. Expect it, appreciate it, learn from it. This week, right? This specific week, right now, where we have just three major high impact news events, I wouldn't even call them that major, right? The reason why we have this lack of volatility this week is due to the fact that next week, we have a ton of liquidity entering the market, right? A lot, right? Next week, on Wednesday, it'll be specific, right? So, right now, the market is preparing itself for that, right? It needs to bore us before that, but even when it's trying to bore us, we have an idea of what to expect, right? So, yes, before I have said, right? You don't use the yearly cycle for the index futures market. You, you don't use it. Then, you, you, you can use it now when you know what to expect. Why? Because you need more factors to come together, right? You can't just simply look for sequential SMT. You have to look for sequential SMT, a precision swing point, and using the ranges as how you see me using them right here. You have to know what, what the interest rate triad are, right? And it's not your typical, you know, MDX, no, no, no. That erase that, erase that from your mind. That's level zero. That is nothing, right? That is literally nothing. And this is why, right? Previously, I said you don't want to apply this because your, the knowledge that you had then was just that knowledge that you, that you had then was, okay, I'm just going to look for an MD, no, no, no. That right there won't work with this. But when you apply everything else that you know to the charts, then you can use it, right? Do you understand? You don't need AMD X. No, you don't even need that. You just, you know what to look for. Okay. And which cycle is the best, and which day is the best? The best day is when, have you realized it's Thursday? Why? Thursday is made for reversals. Thursday is the best day. Thursday is usually the best day, right? Have you realized? Have you realized? Well, if you haven't, you know, now. Why is this? Whenever they don't have, right, liquidity in the first half of the week, they usually, right, use those days to chop people up, but they has to be liquidity inserted into the marketplace, which means that they just, they can not, right, do it for a specific amount of time, but they have to do it. But so they just wait until the end when everyone's bored or everyone rushes in Monday, Tuesday, they get stopped out. The amateur that don't know what they're doing. So, yes, right? I hope that you guys, you know, put something away from this. I will more than likely be back, right? I know the day after tomorrow, which is, or I'll probably be back tomorrow. I'll try to be here in the morning for the news. So, hope you learned something from this, and yeah, have a wonderful day.