Transcription
Hi everyone, and welcome back to the channel, and welcome back to another video. It has been a while since our last major market update on Curve. Um, if you want to go back and check that one out, please do so.
But today, we're going to do an overview market outlook. And, um, a little bit different here is a chart I've made where we're using the, um, Bitcoin divided by the S&P, the Bitcoin versus stock market, and we're overlaying that with the red line here, which is gold. Um, and as you can see over the past five, five, six, seven, eight years or so, you can see gold tends to peak at times just before the cryptocurrency markets really starts to outperform the Bitcoin market.
We've got two examples here. Um, one in 2017 that led to, um, a potential rotation of capital as gold started to move down and the, um, Bitcoin versus the S&P really started to outperform the stock market there. You can see that that time period almost led to around a a 105-day period where bit, um, gold had topped out and, um, it seems like capital rotation led into the cryptocurrency market, which led it to outperform the stock market here for a good 100-day period.
Um, and again, back in 2020, we saw gold top back in August 2020. It went in for a dramatic fall to the downside as rotation of capital seemed to enter the cryptocurrency market versus the stock market, which is that 2021 big run, all of the hype in the crypto market. Likely where most people entered, um, and a lot of people got wrecked.
But right now, what we're seeing in gold is a potential topping structure here. Um, very, very overextended move. If that's not the top, then I would assume the top is coming in very, very soon. That last top of gold led to, um, a rotation of capital that took about 200 days. So we've got a 100-day period back in 2018. Um, and we've got a a 200-day period here in 2021. So maybe the time of capital rotation and the fact that there's more capital now in the gold market, maybe that might outline that we're potentially entering a phase where maybe it's going to take a little bit longer than 200 days for that capital rotation to happen. Or maybe it goes in for another 100-day period.
But I am expecting something like this in gold now where we start to, um, really do get a decline in the market and maybe like in last periods where we've seen Bitcoin really outperform the stock market. Um, we're going in for a very nice trend line retest here. Um, so I think it makes no sense to get really bearish at this point, especially as our outlook on Bitcoin has always been that $140 to $180,000 region. I do believe that is going to come to fruition, but I also believe the remaining ROI in the market, the best ROI is actually in the altcoins. Um, and specifically, a big allocation for myself has been over the last couple of months building Ethereum and CVE positions, um, leverage and spot as well.
So I am relying on the fact that I do believe that this capital rotation now is going to come to fruition from gold and we're going to potentially head into a period of outperformance for, um, Bitcoin versus the stock market. I think we're seeing a lot of tech stocks potentially topped. We've seen them falls go, um, negative 40%, negative 50% in the stock market, um, some big stocks. So where's that capital going to rotate to? It makes sense for the big players, in my opinion, to rotate them capital profits or even a percentage of those to, um, some of the altcoins in the market.
So, um, this is how I can see the, um, gold and the Bitcoin versus the S&P 500X chart playing out over the next couple of, you know, three to six months, let's say. Um, you know, we can try and look for narratives that we can look for gold to to drop. What narrative makes gold go up? It usually is a a war narrative. So if we start to see maybe ending of conflict, maybe that could be the narrative to go to the, um, the fact that gold is going through a drop and maybe that could also be the narrative that we see, um, the Fed pivot interest rates lower, injection of liquidity into the markets from, um, from the Federal Reserve to really get that last leg of the cycle going.
Um, so yeah, this is the gold overlaid the, um, Bitcoin versus the S&P. An interesting chart that shows about a 100 to 200-day lag and a potential capital rotation low. So let's jump into the actual Bitcoin chart right now. We'll get everything off here. Um, and we'll just look from an overall perspective of where Bitcoin is. This last recent move, we've had a a nice retrace of around the 61.8 and around a 50% correction from that most recent drive to the upside. Um, and my base case has still always been, you know, that $120, $140,000 region.
And, um, if the stock market is a little bit stagnant and a little bit stale and we start to see the Bitcoin market really rise at this point and the stocks are not really doing much, maybe that can cause the extra push in the Bitcoin versus the S&P chart. So, um, don't get confused with the fact that Bitcoin can outperform the S&P and really go a little bit more parabolic than the fact that Bitcoin, um, does against the US dollar. Um, so yeah, just remember that one.
So, our analysis over the last period, last couple of months, has really been on Ethereum and Curve. We've had really, really good positions being built on Curve. Our last YouTube video was on Curve and, um, we got some very, very, very nice, um, entries as you can see here from the, um, entry plan that we posted on the Patreon back in, um, last year at some point, actually, where we saw the major drive to the upside and we, um, started to enter the Curve market around 37 cents, around 47 cents, and, um, yeah, buy zone one and two, very, very nice buy zones. We did, we did have an extra buy zone down there just in case we've got major, major capitulation, but our main focus was on buy zone number one and buy zone number two there. We built them positions, bigger buys at buy zone number two, and, um, from them levels, we're really now looking at a nice, you know, 100% move there for CVE from buy zone number two.
So, as we doubled those buys at buy zone number two, um, it puts us at instant profit here. And, um, our exit plan on CVE is looking something like this right now. A very conservative exit could be a 20% exit at around 76 cents, just for a a potential flash crash and a bullish candle fill for maybe another entry. But for the higher time frame hodlers, for the higher time frame investors, I do believe, um, looking at TP2, TP3 is more so a strategic plan. And then TP4, all-time highs, if we get there, we're absolutely laughing.
So, if you missed that last video on YouTube, just go back to my last video. It was on Curve, just discussing the lower time frame as well. Um, and we got some really, really good leverage position entries in the Patreon. And so, um, we'll move into Ethereum right now.
And, um, our overall perspective on Ethereum is the fact that, you know, we're potentially coming into a bottoming structure here. And our higher time frame targets are always going to be around the $8,000 region. Of course, I've got an exit plan and an entry plan that I posted on the Patreon as well, but, um, I'm not going to share every single one of those exits, exit pl, exit, sorry guys, exit strategies and entry strategies, um, on the YouTube, just because that's what Patreon's there for. Um, so people can see my entry and exit strategies.
Um, we did come into a buy zone for Ethereum. Um, we have left that buy zone right now. So I wouldn't consider adding at $1,600, $1,700. More so focusing on that $1,400 region, um, just for an overall perspective of entry zone one and entry, entry zone two. We don't want to be, um, raising our dollar cost average into, um, pumps. We always try and focus on the dumps and lowering that dollar cost average because by the time pumps come around and people are raising their dollar cost average levels, then you're asking to be hurt by the market, you're asking to withstand more drawdown. Even if you do go through a potential buy as you get a market pump back to, um, potential resistance and then you get the, um, drop, if you buy up here, you're potentially going to be going through so, so much more psychological pain with that drawdown. Whereas, if you're buying at $1,400, $1,500, um, maybe you could take 10% out there and withstand that little drawdown. These are all little strategies that you can follow as time goes on.
But yeah, people will likely wait for the pump back to these retrace levels for Ethereum to buy back in. You get a little bit of a pullback and they sell because they think that that's resistance and we're going to go for more lows when really you're just getting a simple maybe a three-wave move back to the upside or maybe you're getting a a start of an impulse, a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. These are all things that we can just monitor as time goes on.
But to be honest, guys, for Ethereum, my longer-term perspective here is the fact that if we just change it to the log chart, we've been going through a correction since 2021 and we're just lagging Bitcoin here, and it's almost absolutely perfect here. The fact that maybe we're just getting in a triangular correction that the market now needs to free wave back up, which would confuse a lot of Elliot wave, um, Ellioticians because maybe people that are looking for five waves here thought for Ethereum will see this as a freewave move and think, right, we're going to crash lower when in reality we've just got a free, free, free, free, then we'd get a free wave move back to these levels where people are maybe going to enter here. So, if people are entering long at this breakout level, they'll likely get stopped out at some point for that potential big triangular correction with our major targets being at around $8,000 regions for Ethereum. More likely heading into that $12,000 region.
But we want to be at least a little bit conservative with our, um, with our plans and our strategies and our targets because at this point, you're going to have a lot of people calling for $50,000, $100,000. Um, but you want to get them targets because these people have to buy back in at the top because that's when their confidence returns to the market. Um, whereas when you've got people that are buying down low, buying the dips, buying the real capitulations, um, entering with entry plans and exit plans, then you're following a strategy and you're not relying on any any emotions to get you through the market. Um, simply following the waves as time goes on, going with the flow and letting the market do the work.
So what we're going to do is just jump into the total market cap right now to finish off. Um, so we'll jump back into a regular scale. And you can see from from current that current move back to the upside, that full wave to the upside, very, very similar to, um, Bitcoin. We actually went through a bit more of a bigger correction for the total market cap. Went a little bit deeper than what I expected, but we're never going to get everything 100% correct. Um, anybody telling you that you're going to get everything 100% correct in the market is, um, just lying to you. Basically, you have to have risk parameters in place and you have to have be able to understand you're going to be wrong at some points in the market.
But I do believe, um, heading into the future, we're going to head into at least a a four to five trillion region for the total market cap. And, um, that could really coincide with the transition from gold to the cryptocurrency market, gold to Bitcoin, and then maybe a little bit of, um, capital rotation through the altcoin market. And maybe that's when we see the Bitcoin dominance finally, finally get a sharp fall. Um, a lot of people are saying that an alt season will never happen again. And I think that's absolutely false. I do think we'll get an alt season.
Um, I said that was going to be on my last chart, but we'll jump into, um, Bitcoin dominance. I, I seriously really do believe that we're going to get a massive, massive drop in dominance to around 41 to 42%. I don't think we go for the, um, for the lows. Many people are calling for all-time lows in Bitcoin dominance, and I really don't see that. But we've seen this type of wave structure play out a lot on, um, Bitcoin dominance before where you get them fast spikes to the upside before major drops. Every single time we've had an alt season, um, just before we had a major, major spike, and them spikes tend to last around 100 to 150 days. Similar here. Let's take a look. Around 100 days. Yeah. So, let's say 100 to 150 days. I would expect by the start of May, June that we're going to really start to see some fall in dominance.
Whether we go higher first and we see Bitcoin really get a bit of capital rotation from gold. Um, and then we have to see the capital rotation play out and maybe that just coincides with dominance going up for that final spike and then going in for the for the big drops. We just have to wait and see, guys. But we've had some major, majorly good entries recently on Ethereum on Curve. We've been really sticking to a plan and sticking to the fact that we're going to focus on major, major coins rather than a lot of low caps which are a little bit more uncertain.
So the big plans that we've had over the last couple of months in the Patreon for Ethereum, for Curve, and a couple of other coins are really starting to come into fruition now with big leverage positions being built and really good spot positions being built as well. So, we're sat back, relaxed, we're letting the market do the work. We'll see how this one plays out, but very, very good feeling about the remaining part of this cycle.
Um, again, I'll reiterate, I think that $120 to $140,000 region for Bitcoin will likely be the top. Maybe we go further, maybe we don't. But up to now, we seem to have played this cycle very, very nicely with decent profit takes at good levels. Yep, we could have had more profit takes at better levels, and yet we could have had some more entries at lower levels, but we're never going to get everything 100% correct. We play the probabilities, we sit back, relax, we let the market do the work, and we take it easy.
So, take it easy, guys, and I'll see you next time. It's not financial advice.