Transcription
We're trying to find potential sleepers that are going to win your fantasy football leagues. And these are the running backs that we've picked out this year. You're going to get later in drafts, but they could end up having league winning returns if you draft them where they're going right now. Drop a like and make sure you're subscribed if you play fantasy football.
Starting with JK Dobbins. JK Dobbins last year obviously got off to a pretty good start, right? Um, when you're looking at his game log for the first couple weeks, he had three 15-point games off the rip, an 11, and then another 15-point game. And then in his last five games of the year, he did have four out of his last five games, uh, until week 10 in the single digits until of course he got hurt last year.
The thing about JK Dobbins that I'm going to mention off the off the rip here is that he's never really been able to stay healthy and put it together for an entire season. Right after his rookie season in Baltimore, he played eight games in Baltimore the next year, one game in Baltimore the year after that, 13 and then LA two years ago and then 10 last year in Denver. He's never truly been able to string together an entire season of healthy games outside for of course most of his rookie year.
Who is a very talented running back prospect and the thing is when he's on the field, he's typically crushing it, right? Last year he was seventh in true yards per carry among all running backs eligible. He was also ninth in run block rating. And I think part of what makes both RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins pretty good sleeper picks this year, given that their prices right now, I have these guys ranked as my like running back's 29 and 30 on Underdog. JK Dobbins goes as the running back 35 and in in other, you know, data in other ADP databases is we see him actually go even lower than that. So, you're getting him anywhere from ADP 30 to like 45.
Um, at this current price, I think one of the most intriguing data points to me is that the Broncos pretty much consensus have the number one offensive line in the NFL. And again, this showed last year with JK Dobbins being ninth in run block rating, right? This was the quality of run blocking that JK Dobbins got when he got the ball. And this was a very, uh, even split last year and and two very distinct roles in this offense between JK Dobbins and R.J. J Harvey when you're looking at weeks 1 through 10 when both of these guys were healthy. JK Dobbins averaged 11.5 points per game, was good for the running back 24. He was obviously better through the first five weeks than he was the last five weeks of his season. And then RJ Harvey averaged 10 points a game in that time span as well.
Now you'll notice that again, the split's pretty clear here. JK Dobbins 15 rushing attempts to RJ Harvey's five. And again, if anybody is going to benefit from the Broncos offensive line being that dominant in the run game, it's going to be JK Dobbins, who is getting, again, when these guys were both on the field last year, 10 more carries per game than R.J. Harvey. R.J. Harvey was clearly the receiving back, though. He he outpaced JK Dobbins in targets, receiving yards, and total touchdowns, um, because of some of the receiving touchdowns he was getting last year. But JK Dobbins on a yards basis was getting anywhere from 40 to 50 more yards per game than R.J. Harvey last year when they were both healthy. And so between the yards and the potential red zone opportunity, these guys ended up splitting their production pretty well.
Now, it is worth noting that R.J. Harvey had, uh, surgery in the offseason for a torn labrum, I think, after, uh, what was the the AFC playoffs. He should be ready to go. So, I'm not, I'm not counting on him being hurt. I'm not discounting him because of that injury. But what I'm seeing here between these two guys is a committee backfield with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL that when you're drafting these guys in the 11th round, it's a pretty safe high floor combination of backs. And I think that that when you're drafting in this range, you know, other positions or even other running backs in this range, what you're getting a lot of times is boomer guys with super high ceilings, but also super super low floors, right? I mean, you're drafting around guys like Aaron Jones, Rashad White, Raandre Stevenson, Rico Dow, Tony Pard, Kenneth Gainwell, Quinton Johnson, Parker Washington, George KD, Jacobe Meyers. There's just a lot of question marks with every single player in this range. But you know that at least one of these backs in the Broncos offense is going to have a fairly decent, uh, productive year.
And look, if you think that's RJ Harvey, if you, if you're going to discount JK Dobbins because he's not been able to stay healthy in the NFL, I don't blame you for that. And I would recommend that you draft R.J. Harvey. But in terms of actually benefiting from the situation, R.J. or R.J. Harvey, or sorry, JK Dobbins does benefit more than Harvey. Harvey's more benefiting because of his skill set and his role in that offense and the fact that you know receiving points are a little bit easier to come by when you're that type of of back versus JK Dobbins who's actually again taking advantage of the entire situation and benefiting from the offensive line.
Uh, the deal for Dobbins that he signed this offseason was about $8 million, um, average value per year. It's pretty significant team investment, right? It's the same as like David Montgomery, Chuba Hubard, DeAndre Swift, Javvante Williams. All guys were drafting Javvante, I mean, as high as the fourth, fifth round. Montgomery fifth, sixth round. Swift, the same thing. Chuba somewhere a little bit later than that, but he has significant team investment. So, I think there's enough here to, uh, look at this backfield. Again, if you think it's Harvey, I, I don't disagree with that. But these are the two running backs in this backfield in in behind what is the best offensive line in the NFL and they're going in the like, uh, again, ninth, 10th, 11th round depending on where you're playing. Um, I absolutely will take my shots on these guys there.
Yeah, Jonathan Brooks is another intriguing case this season because again, we've never seen him play. Like, I, I went to look for a game log for Jonathan Brooks and there was no game log. Um, he played, he was, I guess active in three games, but he was working up from the ACL, um, heading into his rookie season in like week 10 or 11 and then he came back and retorted almost immediately. So essentially no work at the NFL level for Jonathan Brooks whatsoever. He was a former second round pick, um, and he really has just found himself in a situation that is very open for him to get work now that he's fully healthy heading into his third season in the NFL.
Um, when you look at the depth chart there, it's Chuba Hubard and then it's Jonathan Brooks. Beyond that, it's AJ Dylan, Trevor ETN, Miles Davis, and Anthony Tyus who will not make the team. Um, this is wide, wide, wide open. We know exactly who AJ Dylan is. We don't really know if Trevor ETN is going to add up to anything. He was a fourth round selection last year and he didn't get any work whatsoever. Couldn't work his way up the depth chart while Rico Dattle and Chuba Hubard took a lot of that work in that offense. Well, Rico Dattle is gone now. And this is why it's very interesting because when you saw, um, Chuba and Dow on that offense together last season, when you just look at their averages across the entire year, they both got a good amount of work in stretches. Chuba obviously got a majority of the work to start the beginning of the year. And then Rico Dael once Chuba got banged up in the first third of the season got a ton of work and then they kind of stuck with them. And then Chuba was working back from the injury slowly. And then it ended up being an even split towards the end of the year. But Chuba on the season had like 8.4, um, points per game, which was hardly flexible. And then Rico Dattle ended up being a really solid flex option on a weekly basis at 12.7 points per game. And again, doing a lot more of that in in shorter stretches. But ultimately, like in a middle of the pack rushing offense in Carolina, both of these guys again were still able to be like relevant, definitely rosterable, definitely guys like once the by-weeks and injuries started happening that you were considering flexing every single week, especially Dael.
And now that Dowel is out of the picture, a lot of people are going to be very hyperfocused on Chuba Hubard. And I think they should be. I think Chuba Hubard to start the year especially is going to be the guy that they start with, um, and that they give a majority of the reps because he's pre-established. He's had really solid seasons in the past. Um, his 2024 campaign was incredible, um, was a super efficient runner, but it just wasn't the same last year and he didn't provide that spark that he had in years past. And that's where I think Jonathan Brooks gets very interesting. If you remember a situation in Washington last year where it was a totally, totally unknown running back field with, uh, Austin Eckler as the RB1 to start the season and then Crosky Merritt came out of nowhere and people were expecting him to eventually get some work. They kind of slowly integrated him over time and the Ekkler injury happened and then they brought in JCM and he looked really solid. I mean, that's a potential outcome for Jonathan Brooks this season if you can get him in the 10th round, which is where he's ranked among flock consensus, like the very beginning of the 10th. He's going around other handcuffed running backs like Manungi and Cororum who are one injury away and then guys like Rashad White who is, I guess, an upside play, but we're not really into that. JK Dobbins who every was just talking about, RJ Harvey who's tied to JK Dobbins. Like, I, I don't think Jonathan Brooks, when it comes to his opportunity and what he could get volumewise, when you've seen that the way they've liked to operate, uh, that backfield at least in in 2025. There's an opportunity for Brooks to really get a decent amount of work there.
Chuba Hubard was very, very inefficient, um, in 2025 at 3.8 yards per carry, which was a stark difference to the 4.7 yards per carry that he showcased in 2024. He's been very inconsistent as an efficient runner across his entire career. And again, that's just something that I think shows us and and might show, uh, Dave Canales as a play caller there that Chuba might not want to be the, he might not be the only guy that they want to lean on there offensively. They're going to want to integrate other guys there. And with the draft capital investment and them just wanting to see what Jonathan Brooks has to offer, um, they're, they're going to give him a chance. So, this could obviously crash and burn, but with a 10th round selection, again, we're talking about a sleeper here, a potential guy that can move up board significantly. If he takes over that lead running back role, kind of like Dowel did last season, you're looking at a consistent flex flexible option with, you know, decent week-to-week upside if he gets a lot of red zone carries and opportunities there. So, an average running offense. Uh, they, they don't rush the ball like crazy. I think they rank literally average right in the middle of the pack, um, across the NFL in terms of rushing attempts, but it's enough volume to go around for two guys to get work and then one guy if he really shows out, brings a spark and ends up getting a majority of the work.
>> One of the backfields this year that has one of the most bust right now in fantasy football is the Jacksonville Jaguars backfield with especially Bashel Tutin. Right, you're looking at Bashel Tutin right now in fantasy football drafts is going in like the fifth round of fantasy football drafts. And this is a backfield where last year obviously Travis ETN had kind of a stranglehold on this backfield. Although ETN wasn't like a worldbreaker last year and I do think there was plenty of room for Tuton to cut into his role and he really didn't end up doing that. But everybody's looking at Bashel Tutin like he's the guy there and I think this makes Chris Rodriguez somewhat of a sleeper.
Now I will say this. I think that if I had to guess which one of those guys was going to break out, I think Tuton has the higher ceiling for sure. And that's why Tuton is being drafted higher. The problem that I have with Tuton's price is that he's being drafted a lot higher than Chris Rodriguez. Chris Rodriguez is being drafted right now as like the running back 42 in fantasy football, whereas Tuton is again going in the fifth round. The thing about Chris Rodriguez is is Liam Cohen handpicked Chris Rodriguez for this offense. Um, he, there's a quote from Liam Cohen about his comfort level with Laquent Allen and Bashel Tutin. Um, and he basically said, I think a combination of Tuton, Laquent Allen, and Chris Rodriguez stands without any more addition and DJ Dallas competing.
Uh, what I look at personally is rushing yards over expected, yards after contact. That's what I give a crap about. It's like, what are you doing outside of what we're blocking and what does that look like? Because I can't coach that. Guys that get more than what's there, I can't coach that. The guys that break tackles at a high level, whether it's Reggie Bush, stiff arms, jumping over them, running through them, I don't care how you do it. I just care that you do it because I can't coach it. He goes on to say in that same interview, I believe, uh, talks about how Chris Rodriguez helps in the run game. What I appreciated about him has been his rushing yards over expected and his yards after contact. I think those are the two areas that you look at. There's a lot of different ways to make people miss and a lot of different ways to gain yards. For me, uh, and for the, the type of style team that he would want to be to be able to punch you in the mouth and get some of those hard yards, getting a guy like Chris to complement that room as it stands right now with Bashel Tutin, Laquent Allen, and DJ Dallas. We're just trying to continue to add good football players in there.
Now, I don't necessarily, this, I'm, I'm actually not even going to manplain this because this is not a redraft. I think it's a dynasty thing. I think it's fairly obvious from those quotes that Liam Cohen was looking for a specific type of running back in free agency and he found it. And I don't know why they would have paid Chris Rodriguez again, uh, decent money for a committee backfield for a backup running back, so to say, to come in and not do anything, to come in and not get any work. And so Chris Rodriguez, I mean, again, you're getting this guy extremely low in drafts, right? I mean, he is essentially free right now. You're getting him anywhere in the 11th, 12th round. Chris Rodriguez, uh, that is dirt cheap. Those are guys that you're almost always in a 12 team league dropping off of your roster after a couple of weeks. And Chris Rodriguez is a guy I think has a chance to to to have a decent role this year in Jacksonville. And of course, Bashel Tutin is the guy that is the favorite to lead that backfield. He's the favorite to break out and he's probably the the higher ceiling and better player than Chris Rodriguez. But I do think Chris Rodriguez is going to have a role. And Chris Rodriguez at times last year was able to carve out a role in Washington that actually at he was at times the most productive guy in Washington last year, which again, was a low bar, but he's getting paid a decent amount of money.
Um, I don't think Tuton has that job on lockdown. I think it's an open competition and I think that because of that Chris Rodriguez could be a sleeper to actually get more work than people suspect. Um, again, 11th versus fifth round ADP. And I don't necessarily think as a potential sleeper here, I don't necessarily think he's a smash pick because I have plenty of questions about him. He, I pretty sure he actually has been hurt. He had something with his foot. It could have been a Jones fracture. That alone is a huge red flag, uh, for Chris Rodriguez. But it is worth pointing out that he could earn a large portion of that work. And if Toutton were to go down, I think Chris Rodriguez would get a majority of the work there. And so that's worth, I think that's worth pointing out. Regardless, I think he's good as a possible Bashial Tutin insurance play because you are drafting Toutin with a degree of uncertainty that he is going to actually get the volume that people project him to get. But at the point where you have his backup or his counterpart going in the 11th round, like there is, >> a pretty good argument to just draft them both. And so I think that he's a pretty good handcuff play if he stays cheap enough. He has to stay in that 11th round in order for you to draft that entire backfield. But somebody that not a lot of people are in on that I think the coaching staff in Jacksonville is in on. They went and invested a lot of money into him this year and he wasn't terrible last year in Washington. So, he could be somebody in the later rounds again, in the rounds where you're dropping almost everybody you draft there. Chris Rodriguez could be a guy that you keep on your roster the whole season.
>> Kenneth Gwell really burst onto the scene last season in Pittsburgh when not a lot of people expected him to because guys like us assumed that Jaylen Warren had that running back room, um, I guess on semi-lockdown alongside Caleb Johnson who ended up being a total non-factor. Um, and Gamewell just came on and was like, "Yo, I'm actually the most explosive guy and I'm the best receiving option by far," which was supposed to be Jaylen Warren's strength. Both of those guys ended up averaging 13 points per game, um, together in the same offense, which is very, very impressive. Gainwell and Warren ended up both being really solid flex options week in and week out. Um, and Gamewell is now on on the move and on his way to Tampa Bay. Um, and is going to play alongside another running back who has a decent amount of questions due to injury and Bucky Irving this season. Obviously, Bucky Irving, um, is the better, more talented running back there, more versatile. Um, I, I would say more explosive. I, I think he's overall just a better athlete. He just has a lot of injury concerns and he's still battling a shoulder injury that he's recovering from or working on recovering from that he suffered at the beginning of last season, which is definitely a concern. And that makes Gainwell very, very interesting when you look at his price, which is like well into the 10th, 11th round, almost going alongside Jakoy Cross Merritt, Jordan Mason, Chris Rodriguez, who we just talked about, Jonah Coleman, who is going to start the season as the third option in Denver's offense. Um, you're looking at Gainwell getting a decent amount of work most likely to start the season as they probably try to not overwork Bucky as he comes back from this injury.
One of the biggest, uh, knocks against Gainwell, and this is what really impacted his overall upside last season with Jaylen Warren in the same offense, is that he's a crazy inefficient runner. He had like 3.9 yards per carry, which was 31st among running backs compared to Warren averaging four and a half yards per carry. Um, he is likely to not get a lot of rushing work on the ground ahead of or over Bucky Irving. The nice thing about Gainwell is in PPR formats, if you're playing in a PPR format, um, you want to take a shot on this guy because he is likely to take a lot of receiving snaps away from Bucky. And, um, that's not necessarily, like I don't want to be super negative Bucky this whole time. I just want to talk about what the potential upside is with Gainwell just from the receiving work that he offered because that's where he got all of his points last year. Not a lot of people remember that Gainwell was the lead receiver in terms of production in Pittsburgh last year, which is criminal and of, and of its own. And that's a whole another topic, which is crazy. That's how bad Pittsburgh's offense was last year in the passing game. But it is a testament to how legitimately talented Kenneth Gainwell is as a receiving option coming out of the backfield, um, and will be a nice dump off option for Baker Mayfield, who was underdressed quite a bit last year.
Um, again, I don't want to discount Bucky and his his ability to be such an efficient runner. He was super hyper efficient pre-injury, like really dating back to 2024, five and a half, almost five and a half yards per carry. Um, I don't expect him to be that extra, that ultra efficient this year, but I would expect again him to get a majority of the work as long as he's healthy. But that's another thing with Gainwell is like, he is the ultimate insurance option to Bucky. If you're drafting Bucky as early as like the fourth, fifth round, um, and you want safety to pair with Bucky with those injury questions, just take Gainwell in the late 10th, early 11th round and you feel pretty comfortable locking down that backfield. And you saw Rashad White in the games that, uh, Bucky Irving was injured last season, ended up being a pretty consistently decent flex option and he had a low floor. Um, but again, they let Rashad White walk and went and invested in Kenneth Gainwell. Paid him quite a bit of money. Um, and I, I don't think that merits him just being an afterthought and not getting a lot of work and not getting a lot of usage. Like, they had to pry him out of the hands of Pittsburgh, who got a lot of good work from him in 2025. So, when you look at their rushing offenses and Arthur Smith's offense in 2025 in Pittsburgh, they only had like 28 rushing attempts. Um, which again, 13 points per game for Warren and Gainwell in a 28 or or ranking 28th in rushing attempts across the NFL. That's very, very impressive for Gamewell to be that productive. And you look at, uh, Todd Bulls and his rushing offenses historically, he's usually middle of the pack. So I would expect this season for Tampa Bay to try and run the ball, um, about as much as they have the last couple of years with really solid running back play with Bucky Irving and Rashad White, 10th and 15th over the last two years in rushing attempts. And then obviously you're going to get some receiving work from Gainwell as well. So a nice selection, a nice shot to take on at the 10-11 turn.
>> I think another guy that people aren't talking about enough this year is Jakuri Kroska. The the backfield in Washington this year is just hideous. It was hideous last year. It was a three-way split between Jaka Crosky Merritt, Chris Rodriguez, and Jeremy McNichols. But Krosky Merritt was leading that backfield last year, uh, with 10 rushing attempts per game compared to Chris Rodriguez's eight and a half. Um, he also led the team in rushing yards per game. He led the team in PPR points per game. And he led the team in total touchdowns per game, barely just over Chris Rodriguez. Chris Rodriguez is obviously gone and they bring in Rashad White.
Now, it's worth noting that they're paying Rashad White approximately $2 million a year. He's getting paid about the same as guys like Shamaz Shamaj perin, Ty Johnson, Isaiah PCO, Chris Brooks. So, not a game-breaking contract to say the least for Rashad White, but naturally because White is, uh, a better third down back, which I'll admittedly say that he is a better pass blocker, he's a better receiving back than Jaka Crosky Merritt, people are forecasting him as this big fantasy football, you know, Javvante Williams for this year, for example. I don't necessarily disagree with that because I think people are too easily jumping to the conclusion that that Washington backfield is going to have a three down back in Rashad White. I do not think that's going to happen. In fact, I think the or early down back in Washington this year is going to be Jakori Kroski Merritt. And who do I think is going to be the red zone back? Well, I think there's going to be a fight for it, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was Jaka Kroski Merritt. And so this might end up being, you know, similar to other backfield splits that we see because it's very popular in the NFL now where you have very distinct roles for both of these running backs, right? You have Jakori Kimra as the early down back, as the short yardage back, as the red zone back, and you have Rashad White as the third down back, as the passing down back, as the receiving back, and it could limit both of their their ceilings.
But the problem is when we're looking at these two guys in in fantasy football leagues this year, like Rashad White is being drafted, like he's the clear-cut third down back right now. He's going at around running back 38 prices. And and I guess, you know, the one saving grace here is if you're looking at best ball ADP, these guys are going pretty close together. If you're looking at expert consensus rankings over on the site, these guys are ranked probably, uh, 10, 12 spots apart. Uh, Rashad Weis ranked as the running back 31 versus Jory Kamar as the running back 40. And so, uh, nine spots to be exact. Regardless of that, um, I think people are crowning Rashad White in that offense too quickly. Rashad White is is not going. Of course, I see it. I see the upside with Rashad White. I was there his rookie year when he was fourth in running back points. He was the running back four his rookie year. I was there. I was also there saying that I thought Rashad White was a better running back than James Cook coming to the NFL. And after the first year, I thought I was right about that. Oh, but I couldn't have been more wrong. So, I'm very familiar with the success Rashad White has had in the past. I also was able to watch him a lot last year, uh, in Tampa Bay because he was on my Flock League team. And yes, when he was scoring touchdowns, Rashad White was very good. The problem was Rashad White's floor was exposed when he was not scoring touchdowns in that offense. And as soon as they got any whiff that they might like Shawn Tucker in that offense, what happened? Well, after the that 14, 23, and 17 point game that he had weeks two through six, the entire rest of the year from weeks 7 through 18, mind you, that Bucky Irving was not playing for a large portion of this stretch, right? He had one double-digit game and he barely got to 10 points. One double-digit game.
>> That's cuz he got no touchdowns.
>> Again, he had no touchdowns. And when the touchdowns left for Rashad White, he was not any good. Bucky Irving, for example, did play weeks 13 through through 18, but if we're looking at specifically weeks 5 through 12 where it was Rashad White and he had that backfield, 5 through 12, he started off great. 23, 1, 17 and then 7 through 12, 8, 10, 8, 5 in an offense that yes, last year was a little bit hobbled with Baker and things like that, but it wasn't like there were not fantasy productive guys in that offense, right? I'm just warning you. And that really is the thing. Like when his touchdowns went away last year, he was not productive. When you're looking at all three of his games where he was at 13 points or higher, even 12 points or higher, he had three of those games he scored a touchdown in each one of those games. When he did not score a touchdown last year, he was in double digits one time. And the snap share was there, 55%, 72%, 61%, 60%, 40%, 47%, and then it went down at the end of the year as they got Bucky phase back in and he was splitting with Shawn Tucker. But this is a Shawn Tucker that's also not very good and Rashad White could barely beat him out last year in that backfield and he got like basically backup running back money. So I get that we're all trying to find the next Javvante Williams, but I make the case for Jaor Krosky Merit as a sleeper. This is really what I, this is really what I wanted to get at. I think Jaory Ksky Merritt could be the early down back there. I think he could be a sleeper because, uh, Dan Quinn, uh, David Blau has said that they're going to play more under center, more play action. I think under center is going to heavily favor Jaka Krosky Mer.
Oh yeah, >> I think it's going to heavily favor Cory Crosby. Not to mention, last year it was a top 10 rushing offense by volume. There's tons of touches to go around. Again, you have vacated volume as well with Chris Rodriguez. And I'm sure, I'm sure Rashad White's going to take a big healthy chunk of that. And it might just be both of these guys end up capping their ceiling. But in a mid-tier offense where one running back is going much higher than the other, I think a sleeper pick has to be the lowerric running back here in Jakory Cross Merritt, who wasn't terrible last year. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry, by the way. So there you go.
Those are some sleeper candidates for this year. Obviously, we're trying to find sleepers. Odds are one of these guys is going to hit, if any of them, and they're all going so low that they're almost all going to be droppable at some point in the season. But trying to find that needle in a haystack. That's what it's all about. Appreciate you watching. Drop a like on the video. Make sure you subscribe if you play fantasy football. If you want full access to the algorithm to help you with your fantasy football drafts this year, we've got the link in the pen comment. You can get the season pass. It's 34 bucks. It unlocks our entire tool and more tools on the site to help you win your drafts this year. Okay, appreciate you guys. We'll see you with more videos next week. Heat. Heat.