Transcription
Always pay attention to this rise in Bitcoin. We will therefore take stock of ETH and ETH BTC, which is the key for ETH in the short to medium term, and also of the economic calendar, but that will be quick with the shutdown. But before that, don't forget our support, our website it-bourse.com. So you have all the details of our private group. You have two offers with the vintage offer, simply with affiliation. You can get between 2 and 6 months free. You have the classic monthly offer, so you have all the details on the site in the description. You have our channel's Discord, don't hesitate to join us. Also, once again, thank you to those who like and subscribe. It supports the channel enormously. So thank you.
So, economic news, well, not much again, we are still in this shutdown in the United States, which, well, there is no real outcome, let's say for the moment. So it's still to be followed. Today, we have a speech by Jerome Powell, but he had already indicated that he would not talk about the economic situation, but that the Fed still had reliable data despite the shutdown. There, we had a comment yesterday from a Fed member who, well, spoke about this. But well, for the moment, nothing much to report on the economic news, but we will have to be careful when it comes out. It might come out all at once and then we will have a lot of data. Don't forget that 2 weeks ago, we were waiting for the NFP, the unemployment rate, so the Friday 2 weeks ago, and again, and well, and then we had a lot of statistics that we postponed, notably with employment and so on, and this week if we postpone the economic stats again, well, we have a lot of economic stats, we have inflation, PPI, retail sales, and so on. So pay close attention, we will have a lot of economic stats that will accumulate if they are postponed again.
So, regarding BTC, well, BTC stagnated yesterday. So in the title, I'm saying it's still a trap because I still believe we can retrace on BTC in the short term. Again, this is really short term, these are daily briefs. So in the private group, we don't do that at all. It's really swing trading, let's say. It's for a minimum of several days, several weeks, or several months depending on market conditions. But in the short term, we could simply retrace. So, there are several reasons, but for example, on the CME, well, we haven't come to pick up the liquidity here, simply on the perp, we came to around 102,000 on Binance. So 102,000, well, there's a gap, I know with the futures, but well, it would come back at least, well, it would come back here, but I doubt we'll go here, but we could at least come back to this zone here because we stopped, well, we came back very slightly here, and we could at least come back to this zone, or even take out this stop.
Also on BTC, we have the Bitcoin dominance, which can really decrease now because we have reached very important levels with, let's say, this mini crash, let's say, on the altcoins, especially on BTC. ETH, well, it was reasonable, relatively speaking, but so on weekly, for example, on Bitcoin dominance, we have returned to this fair value gap here, and so now we have everything we need, let's say, for a bearish continuation. This would mean that ETH and so on, and the rest, could regain dominance over BTC, but we will see that again later with ETH BTC. We've been talking about it for a while, but so we could make another bearish leg on Bitcoin dominance, which could of course mean that Bitcoin should be weaker, which could perhaps make a top here, why not. We might have already made a top on BTC, and we would simply take time to retrace and so on, while ETH and so on would make a new top, a new ATH here. And of course, on ETH BTC, well, we've been talking about it for a while, there's about 25-30% rise here until the monthly rebalance, but we'll come back to that.
So on BTC, well, we have this zone. Also on ETH, we will come back to it, of course, but we have two equal lows here on ETH, where we haven't taken out any liquidity here at all. So maybe we could come back to it, and it could be a very good zone, you know, in this fair value gap here. The green rectangle, it could be an excellent zone for bullish continuation. The last liquidity grab before the bullish continuation because again, on ETH CME, we didn't take out the TH, even if it's not adjusted, but even if we put it adjusted here, the TH at 5500 here, 5500 here. So, well, it remains an objective. Well, but I don't use adjusted contracts too much because I think, well, sometimes it's positive, sometimes it's negative, and so on. We saw it with the dollar, the dollar adjusted, there was no liquidity grab here, whereas, well, we have a nice rebound on the dollar currently.
So, on BTC, simply, we talked about it yesterday, so we are working on this bearish fair value gap here. So be careful, we have created a very slight, it's especially on ETH, but we have created a very slight fair value gap too. On ETH, it's really obvious. So be careful because I, well, I repeat, we could make another bearish leg in the short term as well. It's also on the US indices because the US indices are working, well, they have already taken, they have already returned to their daily fair value gap this morning as well, on the Nasdaq here, look at the daily fair value gap. In fact, we open the week, we go north, and we make zero low. I repeat this, it's something very important, it's extremely rare on indices, it happens on Forex and so on, but on indices it's super rare, so it's really worth noting. In fact, we open, we reopen, for example, the S&P at 6632, and it's the low of the week. This means we made zero low, meaning we opened, we just went up for now, we're doing this. And so, well, I think we will at least test this level this week, and the price action currently makes us think that, well, we would be rejected by a fair value gap here. The daily would make us think that we might make a bearish continuation on the indices. So I will talk about that again in the index brief later, also with China, I haven't talked about it, but well, it seems to be calming down too. It's mainly economic news. When the economic news comes out, I think it will be great. We'll have to be very careful at this level because really the indices, well, the indices can retrace, they can retrace by several percent, largely. I will come back to it again, but well, we have fair value gaps. Look, we could have 8-9% here, or more on the Nasdaq. Well, we have fairly important zones on the indices here. Look at 10%, 10-11%, or even a bit more, 15-17%. Well, but we'll come back to that later.
So, on the Forex brief, so well, on Bitcoin, we'll have to pay attention to this bearish leg. We'll move on to ETH. Well, Bitcoin, which is still in its fair value gap, I repeat, on 4 hours and so on. So theoretically, we can make a nice bearish continuation in the short term. Again, ETH, well, it's the same thing. We have retraced this zone here, of fair value gap. I'll put it. There it is. We have returned to this zone for now. This morning, we have a small rejection. So be careful, we also have, if you use Fibonacci, if we do it quickly, we are returning to the re-accumulation zone. We have returned well, we have even returned beyond the 382 here. Well, I'll put it here. We have just returned into this fair value gap. It's the last zone, if we pass this zone, I think we will make a bullish continuation on ETH, but it will depend a lot on ETH BTC, we will come back to it. And well, the fact that the indices are opening and not making new lows, and the fact that on the CME, we haven't taken out liquidity, this always leads me to think that from a technical point of view, if there is no economic news and so on that contradicts this, from a technical point of view, it always makes me think that we can retrace at the beginning of this week on the indices and especially on BTC ETH. Well, so here, we would have a very good zone technically to make a correction. But it's especially what is very interesting on ETH, of course, is that we have created a bullish fair value gap now. So we have this zone. Now, this zone doesn't really represent a point of interest, I mean, on the CME. Well, the CME, I know there's a gap, we have about 20 points, 20 dollars difference. But well, the objective on CME would be, we haven't made a fair value gap on the CME, I repeat, because it was simply closed this weekend. But the objective remains around 3840 on the CME, which would make it 3820 minimum on the Perp here. So 3820, well, technically it's here, approximately. 3820 is here. So, why not, we could make and maintain this fair value gap, simply. In fact, we create the fair value gap, we work on it again, we make a wick up to these levels, for example, to just take out liquidity, and we re-enter it, for example, to then we would probably make a continuation. It would be a great zone for bullish continuation, but well, this zone is super important in the short term on ETH, and I think we will return to it at a minimum, and I think if we return, we will return at least to 3820 minimum, or even a bit more. And then we'll have to see the reaction, especially, we'll have to maintain this fair value gap, re-enter it to, well, make the bullish continuation, and it would be a great zone because on ETH BTC, we're doing the same thing again. ETH BTC, the fair value gap, but especially, whether it's ETH or ETH BTC on weekly, we have maintained the weekly fair value gap here, bullish. Look, we closed well within it this weekend, so it's super positive, and ETH BTC too, Sunday saved the week. Look, for now, we've returned to it. Which also represents on BTC. Look, we made the nice wick. We could simply return to it this week precisely with a correction, but on ETH BTC, sorry, we have especially returned on monthly to the monthly fair value gap E6. This weekly fair value gap also represented a monthly AFVG. So, it's a great zone to make a bullish continuation and objective. I repeat, it's again, we stopped just before the monthly fair value gap, the red zone here, this zone. Well. So it's still the objective in the short to medium term on ETH BTC. So if ETH BTC does this, it means that ETH will be stronger, and for me, ETH will go to at least 5500 points, and Bitcoin could stagnate, we saw it with perhaps Bitcoin dominance decreasing. So, well, we would be in a good rebound zone on ETH. So a good opportunity on ETH BTC.
So, quickly on ETH BTC, so this zone roughly here, so on 4 hours, it would represent, yes. It would represent this fair value gap here. So a great zone here, we could return. This would make a drop of about 5%. So on ETH, if Bitcoin doesn't drop, but which I doubt, in case of a correction, it would make -5% on ETH. So we would return to this zone at 4000, okay, at 3950. And if BTC drops a little, we could go a bit lower and why not take out this liquidity on ETH CME here. Well. ETH CME here. So we'll have to pay attention to that. If there's a good reaction, well, then we could have our bottom, and then we could finally go and look for on ETH here. Well, ETH. We could go and look for all this liquidity here and therefore make a bullish continuation like this on ETH. Well, we'll observe this in the coming days. I'll stop there for today. So don't forget our support in the description, all the links in the description, of course, to our site. Once again, thank you to those who like and subscribe, it supports the channel enormously. I wish you a good day and thank you. M.