Transcription
All right, I've got a great video for you guys. I'm going to start off by something you've heard before, which is if you want to make generational wealth, sometimes you have to hold a stock for a generation. I'm going to go through some hot stocks, market leaders that I believe that most folks should have these in their portfolio and they should hold them for 10 years because as the old example goes, if you had put in $1,000 into Apple 10 years ago, it went up over 1,000% in that time frame, you'd have $10,000. You put in $10,000, you have $100,000. You put in $100,000, you are a millionaire. And so obviously there's the old saying that time in the market will always beat timing the market.
And so I'm going to go over some super hot stocks that actually had a really big breaking news story and that's going to be the quantum computing stocks. And at the end I'm going to share some technicals on one of the ones that a lot of you guys are in and I've gotten a lot of requests for. And I'm also going to give you my favorite quantum computing stock to hold for a decade. Welcome to Wall Street. This is the Stocks with Josh show. I have a wonderful show planned for you and always my biggest concern is getting through all the content.
I have to take a moment and address my video from yesterday regarding Tesla and Tesla's earnings. And uh I'm going to go through a couple things with you. Tesla did exactly what I expected it to do. And I saw some comments where people just didn't understand what was laid out yesterday. And today I'm going to break it down for you. Sometimes I refer to these folks as the ones who are trying to coach the coach. But let's go through it. The first thing that I said, I always give triggers, downside triggers and upside triggers. And if you go back and you look at the chart and you look at the video, one of the things I warned about that I said would be a trigger to the downside and a flush was a cross beneath $440. Lo and behold, we got that before earnings even came out. The other thing that I highlighted in that moment was that if we got that cross that it would trigger a move down to $424 and even as low as $411. We got all of that.
But another thing I said is that I wasn't going to sell my Tesla because I believe that Tesla's holding up well in this environment and that it was worth holding and buying on Tesla into 2026 because I still see this thing getting north of $500. I also highlighted that I wasn't going to buy puts and I want to explain even more deeply why I said that. The IV, the implied volatility on those puts was just through the roof. And if the market did what I expected it to do, which was to flash down and recover, those puts would have largely moved to expiring worthlessly. So, let me give you an example. If yesterday you bought some $440 in the money puts before the market closed, those opened up briefly at around that price and quickly throughout the day as Tesla went climbing back higher, which is what I was expecting for it to do. Okay, those quickly dropped in value. They went down from $20 roughly the day before to below $4 when I last checked them before doing this video. And so because of implied volatility and because of Tesla's overall strength, even on bad news, they're doing really well. You got to remember that right now we are in a buy the dip environment, especially for big tech, especially for Tesla. And I highlighted two reasons for that. One, robo taxis rolling out and the anticipation for that and the anticipation for Optimus of course which Elon says is going to be the world's greatest product and most successful product that will drive Tesla to a $10 trillion market cap. I know very, very ambitious but the guy's been winning for decades and he's not one to underestimate. So I'm going to restate that no, I was not wrong about earnings. I gave you the triggers that you need. I gave you the price targets that it would dip to and overall the puts would not have paid off. That's why I didn't take them. So hopefully before you judge the accuracy of what I'm saying from day to day, just stay tuned in, stay plugged in, and I will explain it.
Now, let's get into real quick the SPY. I want to highlight that real quick. And I was just want to point out that in previous videos I said that the trigger was going to be was going to be $671. As soon as we crossed beneath that, we got a flash crash. But yet again, I said I didn't see the markets falling apart this week, but largely ending flat. I believe that we're going to uh basically keep our gains or stay within this range because it's all going to come down to big tech earnings, the AI story, the health of that story next week. And so I'm not expecting the capitulation this week. Every dip this week I think is an opportunity to potentially buy. And if you recall what I've been saying over my recent videos, more likely we're going to have that push up push up. We're still in a distribution environment. We're still in a very choppy environment. We haven't broken out and we haven't confirmed, but the market's not going to go south until it hears from big tech. And it's largely going to begin to get those Q3 earnings next week. So, there's your SPY, there's your Tesla, but let's get into the big story of the day.
And this is one that comes with some controversy because it began with Washington with some news that came out. And it was that the Trump administration is in talks to take stakes in quantum computing firms. This was originally released by the Wall Street Journal. And as that news story began to uh buzz and the quantum computer stocks began to rip back up after having fallen recently, a lot of people were trying to get an answer from the White House and they denied it. They said, "No, we're not. We're not doing any of that." But as the day went by, it was eventually verified as I last heard. But let me just share with you the basics of this. Washington, several quantum computing companies are in talks to give the Commerce Department equity stakes in exchange for federal funding. A signal that the Trump administration is expanding its interventions in what it sees as critical segments of the economy. Companies including OQ, Regetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum are discussing the government becoming a shareholder as part of agreements to get funding earmarked for promising technology companies. Obviously, this was good news. And I want to explain something about why these stocks popped. First of all, they had all run up in previous weeks. And they've all been rolling over. We've got some very bearish highframe candles with massive red wicks on them for the majority of quantum computing. So, we already saw a local high and right now they've been falling. And so this good news uh caused those who were shorting it and getting huge gains as it was dropping. It caused them to panic and close their positions. Remember when you're shorting a stock, you borrow it from the exchange. And to close your position, you have to buy the stock. And if it went down, then you get the profit, the difference from when you borrowed it to when you actually bought it. But if it shoots back up, you're negative. And the higher it climbs, the more you can lose. And so this good news panicked the bears and caused them to start closing up their short positions.
However, I've dived into the charts and I'm going to give you a huge warning regarding this entire segment. I'm going to lay out the opportunity for you and on one of these stocks in particular. These are very, very promising and so they're very interesting. However, they're falling. And even with this incredibly good news that Washington was going to put the quantum stocks on the welfare payroll, it still wasn't enough to keep these stocks from falling back. So, I want you to know where is the best possible price to buy in on one of these, and I'm going to give you my favorite quantum computing stock to hold for a decade. Guys, hit that like and subscribe if you've enjoyed the video so far.
All right, before before I get into that, the meat of it, I want to go over the idea of picking and identifying stocks to hold for a decade. Now, in the Stocks with Josh Discord, I gave a new leap position hold. That's a call option that's set to expire not in a short time frame, but next year, 12 months out. And uh these are for long plays. And I'm going to begin to slowly release my favorite stocks to hold for a decade. The question is, how should I pick those? Well, there are stocks that have been leading the market for all of 2025. I'm going to break down three categories of stocks that you shouldn't have been ignoring because a lot of these have gone up a minimum of 80% and as much as close to a 1,000%. And if it's been a winner in 2025, it's likely if it pulls back to be something worth buying because it may turn out to be a winner for 2026 as well. So, this cheat sheet breaks stocks into three categories. I shared this with my Discord in my welcome to the Discord video this last Saturday. We're going to continue to deep dive this and talk about the companies on this list, but let me just talk about some of the ones I obviously like. And here's what I want you to consider as I go through these. Do you have any of these? Are you investing in any of these? These have been proven winners for the last couple years. The first one is going to be defined as clear market leaders. These are the go-to names leading the market forward. You've got your Hood, you've got your Coreweave, you've got your Palanteer, you've got your Alibaba, your Oracle, and your SoFi. This section of stocks is up between 80 to 300% in 2025.
Now, your second level, these are going to be your next-gen leaders. These are going to be a bit more speculative. These are the ones that folks think are coming up next to be in the market leader segment. These are young, high-growth stocks with huge potential. This is where you're going to get your APLD, your HIMS, your Tempest AI. Those are the ones that I happen to like on this chart. Now, all of these have gone up between 120 to 550% in 2025. So, even though they're up and coming, they have performed well so far.
Now, your last group, and you don't want all of your picks that you're going to hold for 10 years to be in this last group, but you definitely don't want to be ignoring these. These are your future speculative leaders. But the way that I want you to understand these is that this group are story stocks. Stocks that are built on uh nothing but the hopes and dreams of the shareholders. It's low fundamentals but a ton of momentum. Often the retail trader is caught up in the group of story stocks. Now I personally follow the charts but I do love a good story. Now, the stocks in this category that I like going to be Oakllo, BMNR, MP, QBTS, Open Door, Underdog, and the Qur. Those are ones that I like and I've been trading actively in 2025. Now, for me personally, I've only put stocks in that first category of market leaders in the hold only section of my portfolio, and the others continue to be in the swing trade section. And as I get into one of the quantum stocks that has been on everyone's radar today with this new news and you look at the chart, you're going to see why. But here's the main point I want you to take away. There's going to be future Apples and Googles and Teslas in this watch list of market leader, speculative leader, and next-gen leader stocks. Many of these are going to go up a 1,000% in the next decade.
All right, with what's left of my time, I'm going to look at the RGTI stock and give you my favorite quantum stock to hold for the next decade. Let's get into it. We're going to look at some different time frames. But initially, I'm going to show you that on this chart, there is a very clear head and shoulders pattern with a very tall neckline. And we are still in the process in which I believe this is coming down. And you see that I've got on my list the neckline target of $31. Now today we shot up above $38.881 and this is where I have suggested a stop loss and unfortunately the price has fallen back below this level. I do believe that this is on its way to pulling back to this $31 level because this is where the support exists. When it hits $31, you're going to see a whole new group of investors buy back in again. We're going to find our way possibly moving back up to this $38.8181, which is going to continue to be an important level, and it may end up being the right shoulder of a larger move. Now, you say, "Well, Josh, sounds like you're bearish, and you're only talking about this going lower." I would say that right now, the chart is bearish, and I'm going to move to a higher time frame, but I want to highlight the fact that you always are going to have your trigger lower and your trigger higher. This would turn bullish again if it could close on the daily time frame above $44. It would be signaling that this may move on to make a double top and so that would be an opportunity but at the moment it's fading and even on really, really good news it turned out to be a sell the rip moment.
Now let's move to a higher time frame. Okay, these are the things I want you guys to see. I want you to begin to identify the most important levels on the chart and that's going to be your historic support. Obviously, this was a mammoth breakout moment where gamma came into play and this turned into the bears' worst nightmare. Many folks probably thought that this would end here and they began to load up to short it for a move back down, which was a terrible decision because they got crushed as it ripped to unbelievable highs. And that is possible at any given moment. So I am less personally interested in shorting Regetti as much as I would like to catch it when it comes back to a place where it is forlorn and in despair which it really isn't because it's still massively above its historical price average. So what once was resistance as defined at $19, this is where in the long-term move down, which I'm not predicting today, but this continues to lose momentum. This is where I'd be looking to retake a position on historic support levels. Now, if this holds up well and moves sideways over the coming months, the next spot that you look for, if $19 isn't something that this ever comes back to, the next spot you look for is this ascending support level. This is where it will eventually come back. It's respected numerous times and eventually this will dip to that level. And you have to watch to make sure it doesn't break through because then then at that point your next guaranteed level is $19. But the two areas that I believe that this is worth buying long-term is potentially between this $31 and $19 level. And if this does close beneath $31, this thing could in a bearish macro environment, which we're not currently in, this could flash all the way down in a bad or rough moment to $19.
Now, that's looking far down the road and I want to look a little closer. I want to look at this recent weekly pattern and I want to talk to you about what would confirm here and what we would expect from this move. So, obviously this is the evening star pattern which is very bearish. This wick was very bearish and these are defined as a move higher, a doji, and then a move lower. But for this to confirm, it's got to close beneath the green candle which was the initial breakout candle. Now this is where the story gets interesting because right now this is come up off its low and it's sitting at around this $38.81. So by the end of this week if price can get above $38.881 then it means the next stop is $44 not down here at $31. And so I want you to be aware of that. Now if this does end up closing beneath this $38.8181. Then you've got to do the measured move. The measured move is going to be from the body of the doji to the neckline. And that's going to put the stock to the target of $31. And so you take it one week, one day at a time.
Now, for those who are very bullish and they want to understand where this thing could go next, if this were to continue to rip, and I don't see that happening right away. So I have a target after this period of consolidation and we have no idea how low it's going to go but I would consider this the buy range largely. I believe that we're going to ultimately consolidate and ultimately later when we break above $388 and $44. I see this moving all the way up to this $78 in the years to come.
Now there's a ton of information that I just unloaded there to unwind. And let me try to hit you with some of the key points. These are not predictions. I'm going to explain to you why Regetti has some opportunity to struggle in the days ahead, even if the United States government wanted to prop them up and give them some funds. Let's go over the bearish case on the quantum computing stocks. Some of the negatives. Regetti's price to book ratio is reported at 27.2x while its semiconductor industry peers have an average of 5.1. So that basically means it's extremely expensive compared to its peers. Alpha Spread states that RGTI is overvalued by 98%. Which means yes, from $40, they would love to see this thing come back to $4. They believe that's a more appropriate price for the value of this company. I know that folks will disagree. The trailing margin numbers, which is the net margin, is reported at roughly -2,000%. You say, "What are we talking about?" We're talking about how much money and how fast they're burning it. Okay? That's why they need this lifeline from Washington is that it's basically just a big R&D research and development uh situation and they need to be funded. It is valuable tech and maybe some other country could see the vision of funding it and see them get further along. Now, we want to keep an eye on them. But again, I always say this, Wall Street, the value of stocks on Wall Street goes up when profit margins are increasing and revenues are increasing. And neither one of those are a reality with the quantum computing stocks, except for the one that I'm going to share with you in a minute, my favorite. So, in regards to revenue being very tiny, they're making around $9.21 million in a period, while their operating losses are around $77 million, which largely seems unsustainable. And the news story that came out of Washington was that some of these companies were going to get $10 million. And I just explained to you that they were making about $10 million in a period and they were burning close to $80 million. And so if Washington handed them out $10 million every quarter, it really wouldn't be enough to sustain them. So I just want everybody investing in the quantum computing stocks to have a sober reality about what they're facing. They're moving up because of the AI story, because of hype, because of retail interest, and because bears were constantly getting squeezed as they attempted to load up on the shorts for a company that didn't have good numbers. So, they're right, but they were getting crushed in a bullish macro. But when that bullish macro eventually pivots to a bearish macro, these are the type of stocks that will go down way lower than anybody's anticipating. These would not be in that environment ideal to keep buying the dip. So, having said all that, I think the ideal spot for the ultra-conservative investor would be around that $19 mark. Okay? And for the high-risk momentum trader, it would only be if these closed back above $44, then it could run to that $72 mark right now. Even though that would be extremely irrational based on the fundamentals I just shared with you.
And so with all of that being said, I imagine some folks are depressed about investing in quantum computing stocks. Having said all that, what is my favorite quantum computing stock? And the one that I'm buying right now and the one that I've got short-term and long-term calls on as well as leaps, well, that's Google. And you guys like people are like, "That's not a quantum computing stock." Yes, they are. Yes, they are. But they're the perfect company because they've got deep, deep tech pockets full of billion dollars of revenue and they can do that R&D slowly. And when they do figure it out, they're the ones that are going to have the quickest path to implementing it successfully. And they've got the machine that knows how to squeeze the money out of it and make it profitable. So Google stock is heavily invested in quantum computing. It's part of their R&D spend and they can afford it and in the end if they get it figured out they'll just blast past everybody. So stick with the winners. That's the way I'm playing it. That's how I've got long-term exposure to quantum stocks. And I'd love to hear from you. What is your favorite quantum computing stock? And uh do you think I'm right to stick with Google? The rest for me right now are just swinging trades because a lot of them are going to get destroyed even if we have one more pop and that's a little doubtful to me. I think we'll get some more moves to the upside. I think we'll have more green candles, but whether or not we'll get back to all-time or local highs is very, very uncertain and it's going to depend a lot on the overall markets.
All right, I've got one more thing to share with you at the tail end of this video and that is the Tesla chart. I know we talked about it earlier, but I just want to show you that in our A+ trade setups on Tesla, if you had taken the cross of price at the open of the market, this thing ripped up $24. Massive hundreds of percentage point gains. And if you don't know what I'm talking about, I'm talking about my A+ scalp trade setups that I give half an hour before the market opens. There's definitely some stuff to learn about how to trade them, but they definitely work. And Tesla proved today that if you simply took the entry on the cross of price, it was a massive winner. Stop trying to trade blind. Trade with my technicals. Trade in my community. You can go to the website. It's the same name as the show. www.stockswithjosh.com. And in about an hour, I'm going to be doing a power hour live trade session with Mark. I hope to see you guys in there. Peace and blessings, my friends. Take care.