Transcription
Real assets, such as food, are providing the biggest opportunities right now. We're seeing further proof with sugar just exploding in the last couple of days after we've already been seeing the likes of wheat, soybeans, corn, and a number of other commodities pushing on up.
And this is happening while we're seeing money come out of the precious metal space. Gold and silver are absolutely dumping in the recent session. So, is this trend going to continue? Well, I believe so. But it doesn't necessarily mean that the gold and silver market are going to collapse into a long-term bear market. So, in this video, we're going to assess the trends, strength, weakness, and positioning across the board. Let's dive in and take a look.
Now, gold and silver are the big ones, seeing a massive sell-off in the recent session, but that should not come as too much of a surprise if you are following the trends. We identified the short-term trends already changing and some signs of weakness beneath our 50% level. And we already saw a breakdown on our indicator where we no longer had green. Green is an uptrend, blank is neutral, red is down. So, we already lost our uptrend quite a while ago and we've just seen a continuation of our short-term trends.
Now, in terms of macro market structure, nothing has changed from my previous videos, but just a quick recap on that. Provided we see lows hold above key pivot points, there's still opportunity for macro reaccumulation and a continuation in the higher time frame trends.
Now, gold got very close to its level in the recent session at around $4,400 per ounce. So, for the bull market to remain intact and for us to be seeing further strength, we need to be seeing buyers step into the market right around where we are now. We do not want to be seeing a breakdown beneath old lows and 50% levels where we previously saw buying come into the market because that would be indicating a change in market structure and we'd have to start to anticipate a longer-term breakdown.
Now, for silver, that price point comes in at around $66 per ounce, which we did hit in the recent session. We had the flash crash that came about at the end of January into early February. We had support on that 50% level and a low of some big significance and we've come back down to test that level. So for silver to hold together in the higher term time frames, we need to be working away from this zone very, very quickly or at the very least if we do start to go sideways and consolidate. We want to be seeing that consolidation hold that zone. If we break beneath around 66 bucks per ounce and we begin to see sideways action beneath there, it's more likely distribution and any bounce from that point should be treated with a very high amount of caution, just like this bounce here was treated with a lot of caution as we saw massively declining volume and it was just a weak rally. It had all the symptoms of being a weak rally, a dead cat bounce, and here we are seeing that continuation play out. But for the higher term time frames, the macro market structure is just holding together, but buyers need to be stepping in very, very soon from where we are.
Now, the US dollar is an interesting one here as we saw a sell-off in the dollar at the same time as a sell-off in metals, but the stock market holding up okay. So, I suspect there is some money coming back into the stock market, at least in the short term. But that aside, we saw a break back beneath those old highs and that previous bottom. We're starting to see some trend confluence now. So, what I'm looking out for here to signal further weakness in the dollar, at least for the short term, consecutive closes beneath here is next, but ideally for a weaker dollar, we'll be seeing a lower high take place before thinking about some more intermediate levels. So, for now, it's just a short-term breakdown in the dollar, but if we pop back on top of that level very quickly, then just look out for some more upside momentum to likely continue in the dollar and the inevitable knock-on effects that has to the broader market.
Now, the stock market sold off. It was a volatile session, but ended up closing roughly where it opened. We are still seeing some support come into the market around this 50% level. And if you look closely, there are some very subtle signs of demand coming into the market with higher lows printing, but we're yet to see any changes of trend. We're still down across the board, so there's still a lot of work to do. But if we can move away from here, I still think it's going to be a dead cat bounce off the back of this massive volatility. So, we'll be watching volume very, very closely if we can bounce away from here. The invalidation level I'm looking out for to break the downward trend thesis is looking out for some closes and higher lows on some higher term time frames above these midpoints here. You can see that comes in at around 6,800 points. We really need to be seeing price action break and hold on top of that level, which will reduce the risk of further downward pressure, which could last many, many weeks and if not many, many months. So despite seeing some demand come into the market and some higher lows, even if we bounce from here, the higher probability of failure is around these 50% levels. So let's just see what happens over the coming days and if this buying can actually be sustainable and if we can begin to move away from this support.
Now, even with the war going on and seeing precious metals sell off, we also saw oil sell off, but we're yet to break any of our trends. We're getting some support still holding up just on that $92 support zone. But if we happen to break down from those last lows, we will be seeing a change in our short-term trend, the daily time frame in this case here. And should we see that breakdown take place and a change in the lower term time frame, if we see a continued lower high beneath the support zone, then there's every chance we're coming back to retest some of those lower levels in oil. But until that happens, we have to take the price action for what it is and accept that things could still escalate very quickly from here, especially if we break that last peak. We'll be back on top of that 50% level and then there's a lot of open ground to see a fast continuation back to that $120 peak. So, we're just stuck within a trading range at the moment. We will get some resolution very quickly. But as price begins to contract, just look out for that breakdown and confirmation being the lower high or breakout and higher low above this zone here, as everything in between is likely just going to continue to be a choppy mess.
Over to Bitcoin, which also saw a sell-off in the recent session, but the saving grace is that we're getting a little bit of support on our midpoint coming in at just over $69,000. Now, I'm a bit on the fence with what Bitcoin is going to do next. And I guess that doesn't really matter because we have our confirmation signals either way. We already know that those short-term trends are down, but when it comes to timing and market structure, there is some analysis that suggests this 16th of March peak is actually going to break, meaning we're going to be seeing higher prices. Now, I covered some advanced analysis on a new channel, which I'll link in the description below. If you are new to this, then that other channel is not for you. But if you've been around a while, then you may want to check it out. But like I said, there are some market structure reasons to suggest maybe we'll see a break of that peak. But I want to be seeing a change of trend above 71K and perhaps even on something like the 4-hour chart as the early lead. We're coming back up to test it. Now, on our extra low time frames, we're clearly already down. We had that signal come about beneath $74,000. So, we'll give Bitcoin here a bit of breathing room to really decide what it wants to do next. But we definitely have that solid support now at $69,000, which we're still just holding on top. But for us to be seeing that break of that 16th of March peak, we certainly don't want to be seeing changes of trend beneath that 69K level because we would then obviously be under our 50% under our trend line and there's a fair bit of open ground before we come back to test previous lows and pivot points.
Finally, over to sugar, which has been the massive winner in the last couple of sessions. Now, just to take a quick step back, we're already preparing for the food space to be one to watch here. And this is something I've been talking about for months. We've already seen wheat take off. Soybeans has had a big run. Silver was obviously next. But just to take a step back, the last couple of days before this massive breakout, what we were looking out for was a break of a 50% level and a break of a trend line and of course, breaking of swing tops. And that all came about right here. So none of this is hindsight here. This is what we're looking at ahead of time. And here we are seeing a nice strong move with trend confluence as well. So after such strong moves, it is natural to see the market take a breather and retest some previous lows. The support zone beneath the market I'm tracking, if we do see a breather from here, is right around 15. So if we do correct from here, provided we hold on top of 15, it's more likely strong reaccumulation. Whereas if we drop back beneath and we have to entertain the idea of this just being a short-lived move, I don't think that's going to be the case, but the price action will let us know. And 15 beneath the market is the level that I'm watching.
Now, just a reminder to take a look at the new channel down below if you want to come into my office and have a bit of a chat about the markets. And if you haven't already, subscribe to our free reports where we cover the economic cycle, the stock market, and Bitcoin. There's a link in the description below in terms of the markets and how I'm currently seeing it. That's all I've got for you in today's market update. Wishing you more health, wealth, and happiness. Until next time, I'll catch you then.