Transcription
The DSS Brer indicator is turning bullish again. And this is news that must be taken into consideration because every time it has turned bullish on Bitcoin, we have had a price extension movement that was more or less strong depending on whether we were still in a bull market or even in a bear market. What is the DSS Besser? In English, its name is Double Smooth Stochastic Bresser. It is a technical indicator that was created by a guy named Walter Bresser, which we don't really care about, but it uses the standard stochastic, and other indicators do that too. Except that he has a particularity compared to others: he uses two exponential moving averages to generate buy and sell signals. It is extremely simple to use and much more performant than MACD or RSI, in particular. We will compare it with RSI because RSI is one of the most well-known indicators that people use to know when we are in overbought zones, when we are in oversold zones. The DSSR, its reading, is extremely simple. The goal is to use it on a weekly basis. Why weekly? Because it is the timeframe on which it has the most success, you will see. And basically, it's very simple. You have the oversold levels here in red, the overbought levels here in green. When we cross above this line, we consider that we are overbought. When we cross below, we consider that we are oversold. A bit like RSI. Except that one of the major differences, and one of the errors that traders make, is to think that because we are once in an overbought zone, it means that the price will be sold immediately. Whereas in fact, no, not at all. It should rather be read as a kind of momentum. That is to say, once we are in an overbought zone, we can stay there more or less long. You can see here, for example, if you had sold Bitcoin because it was overbought, you would have sold it around $36,000, whereas it went up to a high of $74,500. So it more than doubled. The reality of this type of indicator is that they are rather momentum indicators. We know that the price is in an overbought zone, that's not a problem, but it can stay there for a very long time, and above all, it shows momentum. When we are here, the momentum is extremely strong. We know that we are most often in zones of bullish extension. So these are zones that are starting to be a bit dangerous, but the momentum can be very strong and last a very long time. You can see it here in 2021. Typically, if you had also followed RSI and sold in the overbought zone, you would have sold your Bitcoin at around $14,000. Whereas in the overbought zone, you can see, we stayed there for an extremely long time until the top, here around $60,000, and so you completely missed a x4. Where the DSSer is a bit more performant in my opinion, is that it smooths two exponential moving averages that will show you a momentum crossover. You have the blue line here which would represent bullish momentum, the red line here which would represent bearish momentum. And the reading is extremely simple, at least much more so for bottoms. What we will look for is to take long positions when we have a DSS that is very close to the oversold zone and we witness a crossover. The conditions are extremely simple. We want a market correction, we want a DSS bressur that crosses not far from the red line here which signifies oversold, or even below it. From there, we can expect that the momentum is really starting to turn around. The crossing of the blue line over the red line, to put it simply, leads to the understanding that momentum is becoming bullish again and that we will have a bullish extension. And what you can see is that at the moment, we are going to turn bullish again. Of course, this week is not yet taken into account in its calculations. We have a green week in which there was a pullback at the beginning of the week to 84,000, we are at 92,000. The week is not over. And so if it closes in the green, and there's a good chance that's the case, then there's also a very good chance that at the end of this week, Monday, it will cross directly and we will have this famous signal. The last times we had it, you can see it didn't necessarily coincide with the ultimate bottom that was made before the crossover, of course, but what we had afterwards were bullish extensions with new ATHs on Bitcoin here, here also here at the beginning of the bull run. And so it's always scenario number 1 that we will also prioritize in 2021 in what was the most violent correction of this cycle, the one in which we seem to be at the moment. Well, you can see that the signal also triggered precisely this return to the last phase of pump which lasted quite a few weeks. We were on 4 months of bullish extension. The shortest ones, I checked, were around 3 months. So for example here until the top, you can see 13 bars, 13 weeks, that's about 3 months. Here, we were a bit longer, we were on 22 weeks, so a good 5 months. And this aligns perfectly with the strategy that we in the community take. You know it if you watch my videos, we talked a lot about liquidity, about the fact that Q1 2026 should bring answers, should bring retracements at a minimum and at best bullish extensions, and that's the scenario we're always playing. If you haven't seen the videos, subscribe to the channel, go watch them, they are from last Monday and Wednesday. And so for now, in terms of bullish extension, the DSS Bresser has never been wrong. Now, I will take the opposing argument to say "OK, but if we are already in a bear market and we don't realize it, we won't have a bullish extension with a new ATH, we will have a retracement." So what's interesting will be to look at when we were in a bear market and we had this famous crossover. Certainly, we didn't have extensions to make new ATHs, but we had retracement phases, and it will be interesting to look at the average of these retracements. Here, we only have two to estimate how far Bitcoin could retrace if we don't make a new bullish extension. At the level of this retracement, it was about 30% on Bitcoin. at the level of the 2nd retracement just here, even if the candles are very small, we were also at 31% retracement on Bitcoin. That's not insignificant. And so if at the moment we are in a bear market, even though nothing indicates that we are really in a bear market, I remind you, the structures are holding. Altcoins don't count, we remind you, it's a much higher risk level. Altcoin structures are totally separate from Bitcoin. Bitcoin is still in a bull run. The ultimate support has not been broken. So technically, we are still bullish, and therefore scenario number 1 will be to place a bottom here as we seem to be doing and go make a new ATH. If that's not the case and we repeat the same configuration as before, that is to say retracements that were very precise at 30% on Bitcoin from now on. Why from now on and not from the bottom? Because of course we start from the crossover. Here, you can see, I took the candles that led to the crossover. I didn't take the candles before that were even lower. Well, from now on, a 30% to 31% on Bitcoin, the price would be in the zone of 1200 to 12500. And what's interesting when you zoom in on Bitcoin on 4 hours, is that this zone is a decisive zone. I don't know if you remember, but at the time, I had indeed said here that we should be very careful when we return to this imbalance right here. The price was not strong enough to reach at least the middle of the imbalance. It happens like that. But it's interesting to note that precisely this retracement target of 30-31% in case of a bear market would lead us to the ultimate retracement zone. The zone where there is the most liquidity to be sought. The zone where, at the Fibonacci level, it is the ultimate retracement zone. We remind you, this ultimate retracement zone is located between 0.786 and 0.868 with the famous FVG and the key level that gave the break of structure here in terms of technical analysis. And so it's not a level to be ignored. In any case, we will naturally watch what happens. You know that what we like is not necessarily technical analysis for technical analysis' sake. We prefer on-chain, we prefer macro because it's much more serious. However, we must take into account what we have in front of us. And what we have in front of us is an indicator that 100% of the time, under the conditions I gave you at the beginning of the video, has led to at least a significant retracement in a bear market, and in case of a continuing bull run, a bullish extension that led to a new ATH. And since it has happened with 100% occurrence, it must be taken into account, we cannot ignore it just because we don't like technicals and we don't like indicators. So for me, I found it important to show it to you. Of course, there is a lot more that needs to be looked at. There are many little tips like this. So subscribe to the channel, join the community. You can click on the link in the description. millennium-crypto.fr, you get a subscription here by clicking on "sign up" and you will have all the macro, on-chain, technical follow-up, live sessions every week, on Thursdays at 6 PM, voice rooms twice a week with me where you can ask me all your questions live to really have an exchange together live, without YouTube's passivity, and with an extraordinary community on top of that. So, I'll stop here for today, a very short video to finish the week. I wish you a very, very good weekend, and we'll see each other next week for more news. This was Trid. Ciao. Ciao.