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มันเกิดอะไร ทำไมทองคำราคาไม่ขึ้น

News15:55

Transcription

Gold in China, retail investors are no longer allowed to access trading of paper gold, which is Gold futures, and speculation using leverage. Purchases must be of real gold only. China has already done this. As a major market in the world, people are asking, "Why after the 24th, gold didn't rise as expected? Why is it still not moving in any direction? What happened last week? I emphasized that there were two opposing forces. One, the closure of two straits in the Middle East. Yes. And this caused everyone to be short of oil worldwide, and everyone had to sell all their assets to hoard crude oil, hoard fertilizer, hoard plastic products. Will there be a shortage of goods? We have to pay attention to these two issues, right? Because there are two fights: Will gold become the main currency backing the Yuan successfully, or not? While America will be able to maintain the dollar further, or not? And oil is also extremely important. If Middle Eastern oil can be sold less, America will have to be the main seller, including countries outside the Middle East. This means more dollars are needed to buy oil, right? This is a very big challenge, so we have to look at the numbers to see who wins in these battlefields. I'll start with the gold chart in the past week, especially after July 24th. Viewers, by the 24th, before the 24th, the price of gold had been falling continuously in the past week. You see the chart? Until the 24th, right? After that, everyone expected it to rise, but there was resistance, which was the closure of two straits. After the 24th, it seemed to rise, then fell again. What happened? Can gold continue to rise if everyone fears that closing the straits will make oil expensive, inflation will follow, and when the central bank raises interest rates? So, if oil rises, inflation rises, and America raises interest rates, gold will fall. So people are worried, will oil rise to over $100? If it rises, will inflation rise? If it rises, gold will fall. This is the concern of the gold side. But I emphasize that currently, reports from Kyodo News confirm that every time it falls, China buys gold, buys it all, buys real gold, and is continuously hoarding it without stopping. This is the most important challenging context. But currently, it doesn't fall below $4,000, but there's a chance it will fall if oil surges and people buy oil with dollars. This is the first side, or AI stocks surging, everyone buying AI stocks in America, which is a bubble, or supporting bonds, or buying through futures markets, all of which are paper-based and use dollars. The question is, will gold win in reality? Currently, gold is at $4,050. But it can't rise much, as if waiting for something. Now let's look at oil. I looked at Texas, and oil also fell, not rose. Yes, it fell. Because currently, the United States has temporarily stopped attacking Iran. Trump came out to signal that there's a good opportunity again to negotiate with Iran, and there's progress. So, why didn't oil rise as many expected to $100-100+? Many said that if it rose like that, inflation would rise, interest rates would rise, and gold would fall for sure. It turns out that the important thing is that there has been a significant increase in production outside the Middle East. And what about inside the Middle East? First, the OPEC group used to agree on production limits. Saudi Arabia withdrew, right? And many countries started producing and selling quickly. Why do they think that? And the non-OPEC group, like Brazil or America, increased oil production. This is an increase to increase demand for dollars to buy oil. On one hand, this means respecting oil prices not falling because of increased production. This doesn't even count Iran. In the past period, they sold oil like never before, receiving $18 billion in foreign reserves. During the time the US lifted sanctions. Yes, they received a huge amount of money. This means oil didn't rise as many expected, which means inflation might not rise. Importantly, besides the non-OPEC group, the global economy has slowed down. Viewers. Oil consumption has also slowed down. On the other hand, money is flowing into AI. I checked, wow. Wow, AI stocks are falling, professor. American stocks have all fallen. Today, AI stocks and US chip stocks have fallen sharply, viewers. Look at many of them. Yes, they said that since this morning, for example, South Korea had to use circuit breakers because stock prices plunged more than in the past week, falling sharply. If counted from the IPO price, it has fallen by 19%. This means IPO holders have lost money. For SpaceX. And there are many other stocks that followed, like Micron. Micron fell by -2.25%. And there's NVIDIA, -4.99%. There are more. And there's AMD, -11.02%. What about Tesla? Tesla also fell. It is said that people are currently worried. One, has too much money been poured into AI, to the point where the returns may not be worth it? This is the concern of investors. On the other hand, two events have occurred in China. One, China announced that it has started producing DUV chip printers domestically. Big news. No need to rely on the Netherlands company ASML. No need to fear any sanctions from the US that ban the export of equipment. No fear, because they can produce their own chip printers. Second, today, a Chinese chip stock called Changxin Technology Group listed on the market. As soon as it listed, its stock surged 531%. Because Changxin will become the number 4 player in the chip market. Currently, there are Samsung, SK Hynix, right? And there's Micron. This is DRAM. DRAM is the main memory used for temporary data storage during the operation of computers and electronic devices. Normally, there are 3 major players: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Now, China's Changxin Technology Group, which IPOed, will rise to become number 4. This indicates that money is fluctuating in the AI business sector, which is America's hope to support the dollar. But [clears throat] I looked at the next chart. Ms. Ke, I'm interested if US bonds can still hold up. The 10-year bond, which is related to gold. Here's the summary chart. US 10-year bonds are falling, meaning people are rushing to buy more. This means people are depositing money in dollars in the form of bonds more, not in stocks. They are still hesitant. And the US Dollar Index is increasing, meaning dollar holders are waiting for changes, are uncertain, and are holding more cash. From this, it can be seen that the world is fighting intensely, not just physical wars, but also economic wars that follow.