Transcription
Gold and silver was in a nasty old blow-off. So silver lower, and that could bring sub-70 numbers back into the frame. I'm not in the category where I see 40 and these silly numbers right deep to the downside. This is silver.
We had the sort of upper 90s to the early hundreds as a second interim. Now, in our targets, which we've given as 333, and that is not the final. You'll have a congestion period at that level. Again, uh, our final high is still the single-digit uh gold-silver ratio. Gold is actually the king. So, as I say, normally we would start on gold, but three waves of selling in a falling wedge continuation pattern is our model.
>> So, gold, how low could it go in your forecast there?
>> There's a fork. We could have a normal adjustment, and then you could have the whole bang, everybody selling everything. It's a panic stock market crash. There's absolute chaos. 2008 vibes. Then you could go, if you had the the full monty, you could get into the 3,000s again on gold. So, both the fiat in the dollar and the debt are going to collapse.
It's >> the 27th of May that we record this video, and we're at 4450 an ounce. So, yeah, let's pull up the charge uh charts, will you, Francis, and explain what the heck is going on with gold?
>> Yes, absolutely. Very happy to. Uh, ironically, for some reason, I'd started on silver, so maybe I can do gold and silver together.
Yeah, we can start with silver because that would be my follow-up question. So, let's, we can start with silver.
Do >> them the wrong way around if that's okay. But, I mean, it doesn't take too much to flip the chart, and we will be having a look at it. Um, I, let me make sure that I'm on uh screen share first of all here, uh, and then go straight to that chart. I love looking at the charts. I tell you the news before the news is in the charts, uh, invariably. So, you know, I um always look for my answers there, and uh, it's the footprints in the sand, if I may.
Uh, this is this is silver. I'm I'm going to just first, if we're on the daily, but I'll just flash it on the weekly time frame, and I'll just turn some of the lights off here. We've we've said there's a third sell-off, and it's an unpopular message for people. They haven't liked it. Uh, I will warn that we, and this will further provoke some people. Um, we were lucky and fortunate enough at the end of January to have gotten defensive. Why? Because we made our second interim on a macro monthly setup. I'll go later and show that on silver, uh, for everybody. But we had the sort of upper 90s to the early hundreds as a second interim.
Markets keep celebrating soft landing headlines while precious metals quietly flash stress signals most investors only recognize after the damage is done. Francis Hunt notes that silver already completed two major sell-off waves after briefly touching the low 100s. And that matters because retail sentiment is still positioned for non-stop upside. The real disconnect is institutional defensiveness versus public optimism. Savers chasing latestage momentum could get trapped in a liquidity wash out before the next secular leg higher even begins. Next, Francis Hunt reveals why the current silver structure resembles previous pre-crash distribution phases. Wall Street ignored publicly.
>> Now, in our targets, which we've given as 333, and that is not the final. You'll have a congestion period at that level. Again, uh, our final high is still the single-digit uh gold-silver ratio, which means you trade below 10 gold ounces, 10 silver ounces to the one gold ounce. Um, and we actually have on point and figure dollar numbers beyond 333. I don't want to go all mega moon right now, particularly during this period while people are facing some uncertainty. It's almost not the time, uh, in some senses, but we reiterate 333 will be a localized high, but we expect this to be a continuation pattern that is of the falling wedge nature, and it takes its time. People have to remember, you know, we were calling the breakout way down, uh, here when we were leaving the $25 mark somewhere around here. We had a continuation pattern and a squeeze there that was breaking. I call it the Brent Johnson uh low when he was mocking silver guys for it going, you know, out of 25, and they're going to lose their heads again. And I was, no, this one's the one where we run $25. So, you're sitting at 75. You are in fact three times higher, uh, than, uh, where you were, but you did have 121 in there, and there's three waves of selling in a falling wedge, and this was a big rejection. So, we wanted to go, and it was stamped on. You can see a huge rejection candle. So, for us, you've got another leg to the downside to take place. Uh, and I'll show you that on a lower time frame. This is going to this is going to weigh in for gold too. Gold is actually the king. So, as I say, normally we would start on gold, but three waves of selling in a falling wedge continuation pattern is our model.
This exact pattern appeared months before previous commodity collapses. Yet, mainstream coverage still treats every metals dip like a buying opportunity. According to Francis Hunt, silver's rejection near 121 completed another major sell-off wave inside a broader continuation structure, targeting far higher levels later. Timing matters here because institutions often force volatility before secular breakouts fully emerge. Investors overexposed to leverage may survive neither the emotional pressure nor the liquidity squeeze required to reset positioning ahead of the next advance. Next, Francis Hunt exposes why gold's behavior now may be signaling deeper stress inside global credit markets.
>> And you had the huge 47% slam that really hurt everybody. We were lucky. As I say, it stood out. All our guys were outed up by 114, um, on the silver side, and when I came back to a YouTube channel, um, there were a bunch of mad as hell guys that were really hurting after a 50% collapse that had quite possibly wailed in near the, you know, the high marks here, given the amount it was moving, assuming it goes on without arrest. In the absence of a real method, you're going to get hurt. We had a real, uh, you know, overweight until we made second interim. All leverage closed. We still a net investor blue pot because of the the macro move, but you are in, you've had two rallies. So, I'm I just showed you the weekly time frame so you can see that falling wedge, but I'm going to carry it over to the daily. And let's just carry that over to the daily now and go back to the chart that I drew drawn for you. So, what you've seen is you had a really hard sell-off period here. You get a grind kind of rising wedge. Uh, there you get your second leg of sell-off that made a new low that took you to the 61, remembering you were $121 there. So that's a $60, uh, adjustment. And unfortunately for everybody, we still don't have runaway strength here. We have what's called a broadening structure. And it is also further continuation to the downside for a couple of reasons. It's an ascending broadening structure on a bare pole. This is the bare pole. That's the sell-off leg that brought you in. You can argue there's part of the bare pole with a rally in it as well, if you want to make an ABCD out of it. Uh, so that was your second wave of sell-off.
A 47% collapse doesn't just destroy charts. It destroys retirees who believe precious metals only move in one direction. What Francis Hunt is highlighting here is the brutal difference between long-term conviction and leverage speculation during broad liquidity contractions. The rising wedge and broadening structure suggest institutional traders are still unloading risk into every hopeful rally. Most retail investors focus on price targets. But the real danger is psychological exhaustion, forcing people out right before the larger macro trend resumes. Next, Francis Hunt unravels why silver's current setup may still require one final panic phase lower.
So you are currently now in, and I'll show you on a lower time frame. We are biased that the market goes down. Although I prefer not to short, uh, because I'm a macro bull. It confuses you psychologically in many other ways. I anticipate that that basing ascending grind line, that's the low end of this megaphone that I'll double up, is about to give way. So I'll show you the TA on an even lower time frame. So, we've gone weekly, daily, uh, and we'll drop down to, uh, the 4-hour. And actually, this is hurting people because there was a gap up when oil sold off, uh, yesterday. And this is a key observation I really want to make. And I've I've literally just left voice messages on my app device to update my community on this. Typically, we've got an adversarial relationship with oil and the precious metals. Oil goes up, bond rates go up, the yields going higher, supposedly negative in this environment for, uh, precious metals. Precious metals sell off. Now, of course, there's the typical framing of commodity versus dollar, where they both are in the broad category of commodities. Um, that also occurs. But the thing that's changed that that's different in literally today is that in fact oil went down, and also we fall out of this rising wedge, which was our original framing here, that you're not going to get too much stronger at a big move. This rejection was absolutely killer. It's quite clear that there's a degree of risking off on everything, and for now, precious metals, when people need cash, feels like a risk-on trade. It's not. In the long run, it's a better trade, a better holding than a treasury bill, uh, in the real world, but you've just broken out of that, and now you're leaning up against this basing ascending grind line of the megaphone that I was showing you.
The Fed keeps insisting inflation risks are contained. Yet oil and precious metals are suddenly breaking their historical relationship at the exact wrong moment. Francis Hunt's argument suggests this divergence is less about fundamentals and more about investors scrambling for liquidity across every asset class simultaneously. When metals fall alongside oil during risk-off conditions, it often signals a hidden stress inside credit and derivatives markets before headlines catch up. That matters because ordinary savers are still being told diversification alone protects portfolios from systemic repricing events. Next, Francis Hunt reveals the contradiction inside commodity pricing that could expose a larger institutional unwind.
Now, what typically happens is you get a bit of a bounce, you form a fractal, and then you often break to the downside. So, silver lower, and that could bring, uh, a sub-70 number back into the frame. However, for those that are hating me right now for that message, once the third sell-off is done, the falling wedge components are complete. And that's when basing can then occur, and then you can start to work your way back up to this descending. It's a capping. It's on the high side descending grind line. And the breakout of that is the upside continuation move that comes with a falling wedge break. So you're inside the falling wedge, having all the little impulses, the three impulses you need to have. And I think you go first short-term, a little lower, and you may, as I say, challenge that 70 and go sub-70. Uh, I'm not in the category where I see 40 and these silly numbers right deep to the downside. We're quite close to concluding, but in a demand-destroying event with a super high stock market with so many risks mainly to the downside, what you'll get is people having to sell everything that isn't nailed down, and you can get a sell-off bid. So, there's a real concern in terms of that here, uh, on the falling wedge. Let's handle gold now, given that we did it the, uh, the funny way round, but I think you're going to come more to the downside of the falling wedge. You might make a similar low and get rejected, or a little higher, but in the end, the real move comes when you break this red line, uh, as part of the continuation back to the upside. Uh, so that still might be some way.
Large funds keep reducing leverage while retail investors are still treating every dip in silver like a guaranteed launch pad higher. As Francis Hunt points out here, a temporary move below 70 could complete the final psychological wash-out before the larger continuation pattern resumes upward. Institutions understand that panic selling phases are where real positioning shifts happen quietly. Investors protecting retirement savings should care less about catching exact bottoms and more about surviving forced liquidation environments without emotional capitulation. Next, Francis Hunt exposes why the coming breakout phase may begin only after another engineered liquidity shock.
Let me just, uh, again, turn the lights off and put them back on, just so that you can focus on that part of it. So, down first, but longer run, the break of this capping descending grind line is good. Let's show you the gold, uh, and then we've given you the opening salvo, I suppose, on the precious metals and hand back to you for that. So, the other thing that was interesting on gold, because we see it as the king again, three waves of selling, slightly different. I'll show you the gold on a different chart. I've drawn it a number of different ways to illustrate this point. You're more in a channel on gold, again, on the weekly, quite a high time frame, again, on the weekly, and there's three waves of selling in the channel. Your initial rejection, shooting star calls localized high. You got initially a hammer, a rejection. Everybody's still, hey, this is only way is up. They come and buy back. They get themselves exhausted, and they get spanked again. Again, you get a hammer, but lower down at the 4,000. You get a weakish rally, and now you are grinding down the front of the top end of that channel. Again, you want the red line broken, but you can first have a third sell-off. Where will it come? That's what I'm illustrating here. The question mark, how far down are you going to go? I don't think you go all the way to the other side necessarily, but you can have another sell-off. Depends if we go full AI bust, tech bust, post, you know, Elon's listing, uh, with SpaceX. We mentioned that it's got to be spoken about in greater detail, but I won't get into that now. Uh, a lot of top indicators, peak, uh, AI indicators are coming.
The same exhaustion structure appeared near prior market peaks when investors believed technology growth could permanently outrun economic gravity. Francis Hunt notes that gold may still require a third sell-off wave even while remaining inside a longer-term bullish continuation channel. The timing matters because AI euphoria, equity overvaluation, and weakening commodity internals are starting to align in ways central banks cannot easily stabilize. People chasing momentum today may discover too late that safe diversification was built on correlated risk assumptions. Next, Francis Hunt reveals why gold's next decline could coincide with a broader tech-led liquidity event.
So, this this could get worse and could go quite low if we go full AI bust, which I think there's a higher chance for. So, in both cases, these are continuation patterns, but because they're on a very big time frame, they've got their own play out to occur, and they're going to take off quite a bit of the initial froth of the, um, move. So, first down, short time frame, both gold and silver. Longer run, you'll be happier, but you got to let things play out, and there might be a demand-destroying event going on in the meantime. Let me hand back to you.
>> Yeah. So, gold, how low could it go in your forecast?
Here >> the numbers are in and around the look, it, as I've said, there's a fork. We could have a normal, uh, adjustment, and then you could have the whole bang, everybody's selling everything. It's a panic. Stock market crash. There's absolute chaos. 2008 vibes. Then you could go, if you had the the full monty, you could get into the 3,000s again on gold.
>> Right? Um, outside of the excesses of such a situation, um, maybe not as far down. Um, so, you know, let me leave it there. It's because it's it's a bit of a confusing it if, buts, and maybe in all of that.
>> Yeah. And like, it's tempting, I guess, especially as a as a trader, for sure, but maybe also even as a general retail investor to sort of trade this and and go short now and then later on buy. But you're you're net long yourself. So, I guess it's just too risky for for any consumer to trade like that because you you don't want to miss out in the long run, right?
If the AI bubble unwinds the way credit bubbles historically do, retirement portfolios could experience forced repricing far beyond what most advisors are modeling. According to Francis Hunt, even gold could temporarily revisit the 3,000s during a full-scale liquidation event resembling 2008-style panic conditions. That sounds contradictory until you remember institutions sell liquid assets first when collateral stress spreads through markets. Long-term precious metals holders are not being tested on conviction alone, but on whether they can survive volatility engineered by systemic leverage unwinds. Next, Francis Hunt unravels why central banks may quietly welcome temporary metals weakness during broader market stress.
I mean, I always just do dollar-cost averaging. And >> yeah, is it investment only? So, there's no leverage in that. Uh, we're not, uh, we were traders with leverage long into the 121 high on silver and into the 55 on gold. Uh, but we haven't been leverage long for, uh, a fair bit now.
>> Right. And also, we with with gold and silver, there was the difference that gold that peaked end of Jan and then reached almost another all-time high just before the Iran conflict, um, started. Silver, like you said, was already more of a downward pattern, but it seemed like before, uh, Iran, gold was a risk-off asset, and then it became sort of a risk-on asset. And, uh, but now it's sort of it's a little bit looking for direction, it seems. I mean, some of these old, uh, uh, values or or truths that we knew from the past few years, like every time there was conflict, gold would go up, but now that seemed to be, uh, in reverse. Could you say a little bit more about the risk >> for you on why that might have been?
>> Um, the surplus nations with trade over America are the net most aggressive buyers of gold. I mean, the obvious one obviously is China, but it's not exclusive to China, especially outside of the western axis. Um, and when when America said, wow, I think what happened is gold and silver was in a nasty old blow-off that was going to bring about all sorts of uncomfortable, uh, questions asked. So, to spike those wheels, we had the manufactured event that creates inflation, which actually rerates down the debt, uh, and debases debt, and it also impoverishes the blue-collar and the middle classes. It only makes the billionaire class rich to have stagflation.
Gold stopped reacting to geopolitical conflict the way financial television promised it would. And that contradiction should concern every serious investor. What Francis Hunt is highlighting here is that inflation shocks and energy spikes may have deliberately redirected global capital flows away from metals accumulation temporarily. The official narrative frames stagflation as an unfortunate byproduct. Yet asset inflation continues concentrating wealth upward while purchasing power deteriorates underneath ordinary households. Investors relying on old safe haven assumptions may be ignoring how policy responses themselves are reshaping precious metals behavior. Next, Francis Hunt reveals the hidden trade-off between oil shocks and suppressed gold demand globally.
And so, we've upped the stagflation levels. And what that also did is left those surplus nations, which are generally an energy importers, no longer able to spend as much as they were on the gold and silver hedge against the dollar-based, uh, debt collapse. So, both the fiat in the dollar and the debt are going to collapse. You can't collapse the one without the other. They are one of the same. One is just delayed money. One is money today. Uh, and as a result of that, they they forced, I call it Trump's triage triangle of trauma, you know, because essentially, to save dying by gold and silver, he spiked oil, which gives America a short-term tactical benefit because their surplus nations suddenly had to buy more oil at high prices because they had insufficient reserves and to stockpile to ensure that they could continue to produce and have be a surplus nation. Um, and that meant less gold and silver purchasing, uh, to hedge against the dollar. So, you get important and urgent. One was very important and is going to happen, but then you got urgent. You've got to keep the wheels of industry.
The dollar may look stable on television, but global trade flows are increasingly behaving like participants expect long-term currency debasement ahead. Francis Hunt's argument suggests rising oil pressure forced surplus nations to prioritize energy survival over accelerating gold accumulation against dollar-denominated debt risk. That exposes a deeper contradiction inside the system. Policy makers need inflation high enough to dilute debt burdens while publicly claiming inflation is under control. Savers sitting heavily in cash could slowly lose purchasing power even before any official monetary crisis becomes undeniable.