Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, back from the market. We will talk about BTC in the first instance. We will especially prepare our week. We will look at the weekly close to see if we have any setups that are triggering or not during the week that could trigger. We will of course talk about Ether and we will look at some altcoins that have been requested for analysis. So there you go, we will simply see if we also have setups triggering on these cryptos. Before I start, I remind you, you have only a few hours left to take advantage of the current offer on the "Devenir Trader" program. I remind you that from the beginning of January, we will have a big update to the program with many additions to strengthen the support, to strengthen your way of becoming even more quickly autonomous. And already, it is a program that is truly complete. More than 30 hours of videos, 15 modules, we talk about everything, we cover all the important topics that will clearly allow you to be profitable. And in addition, you already have personalized coaching and lifelong support. But as I say, all this will intensify from the beginning of 2026 and I remind you, you take no risk with the profitable trade or refund guarantee. So there you go, you have only a few hours left to take advantage of the offer for those who want to. Take advantage of the €200 offered and especially take advantage of a very low price that will never be available again before, of course, the increase on January 1, 2026. And well, I invite you to click on the first link in the description. So I'll start here with BTC. I'm looking at the weekly close. We will monitor our close, but it's true that if it pushes, we could have a close that is less bad than what was uh foreseen. So there you go, I will really wait for the weekly close. It's not like we were very low or I could have already advanced on what the close would be. Here, it can move quite a bit. We see that on the last minutes, the last hours, it can still pump our weekly close which will arrive in a few hours. Now, in daily 4h, it's rather good. We are here in this sideways phase. We are breaking through the top. We are of course waiting for the closes, but we are on a weekend move, that's true, many have said it. That we are on a weekend pump and often weekend pumps are less certain and we have a weaker confirmation than when we have a pump, for example, during the US market opening week or even if the US market is closed, we always have better confirmation. Here, it's true that the moves on Saturday and Sunday can sometimes be invalidated. However, the last Sunday pumps, I remember them well, we had pumps that could hold. It depends on which ones. We have this one that broke the 115. Well, after, we put a top, but we'll see, of course, depending on the US market opening tomorrow. But for now, it's rather correct. Now, we cannot talk about a recovery. Okay? Here, if I put moving averages, we are in the 1h tunnel and especially just above, in fact, we have quite a few resistances. That's why it's complicated. To really talk about a real recovery, we would need to go above $106,000. In fact, flip this resistance level into support. But as long as we don't do that, we are clearly in a context where the most probable thing is rejection because we are at a resistance level, like a support level, it has more chance of doing its job, which is to act as support. Well, here, by coming back to this upper extremity, we have more chance of acting as resistance and rejecting. So to monitor. We will also monitor the new weekly pivot points that will arrive. Hop, if I put the ones we have in progress, here, we have a confluence at this level. We will look at the new weekly pivot points where they will be. To see if we have correlations, if we can look for confluences. Generally, when I trade, I like to have confluences between two levels, two or three levels. It will be, for example, a pivot point with a tunnel, a support level, or resistances. This generally reinforces our zone to tell us "Okay, here we have a higher chance of a reaction because I have a confluence of certain indicator tools that simply reinforce my conviction." So if we reach $106,000 to $107,000 as I said, we could be in a good zone here to take a short. So, by the way, I will address this subject now, I was asked a question. I was told "Yes Nico, you often tell us about interesting zones and then you talk about buying or selling reactions. What is a buying reaction? What is a selling reaction?" So as I said, the most important thing is always to frame your chart. This is generally what we are doing here, what we have in front of us, support levels, resistance levels. We can use intermediate levels like weekly pivot points, monthly, Vegas tunnels, okay? Which simply allow us to determine interesting zones to position ourselves when the job is done. Indeed, when we arrive at these zones, okay? Well, what will be interesting is to see if we have a buying reaction or not. This is an important point, or selling, if you are looking for shorts. What is a selling reaction? It will depend on each person. Okay? Each person will judge it as a selling reaction. But generally, what I think, a selling reaction is when we reach our zone of interest, it will be a pattern, a signal that shows us that sellers are waking up. It will be, for example, here an M top with a break of short-term moving averages. It will be, for example, an inverted head and shoulders. It will be an engulfing, a wick high. Can I take You see when we have a first high wick, a second high wick followed by an M top here. And surely here, we break the short-term moving average. There, we break the 15 minutes. Here is what is a selling reaction. A buying reaction will be, for example, a low wick. It can be considered a buying reaction here. It can also be an engulfing. It can be a W pattern. There, something that shows us a signal that shows us that okay, well, at this location zone, we have buyers waking up. Of course, it's not because we have this that it's 1000% sure, 3000% sure, whatever percentage you want, that it will go in your direction. You can of course have a false signal, a false breakout because that's how it is, that's the market and nothing is certain. This is where, of course, we introduce risk management. Okay? I prefer to do some prevention. It's not because we have a buying or selling signal that it's sure, go up. No, but generally, a buying or selling signal is when we reach a support or resistance level, to simply have a small signal, a pattern, something that shows us that very well, we have proof that the zone we have determined, like this one for example, well, there are buyers who are interested in this zone. You see here low wicks, one, two, three, four, we say it's holding. There. Now, it's not because it's holding that it will continue to hold, but it already tells us "Okay, well, if it holds and if we think, in any case, that it will continue to hold, then we can enter a position with risk management and with an invalidation, of course." But that's what this type of buying or selling reaction is. After, you make your own recipe. That is to say, a setup is like a recipe. You have your different ingredients and well, there will be basic recipes. Then with your experience, your knowledge, you might modify some elements of the recipe because, well, you say you prefer it that way, you have better results with certain ingredients. Well, it's exactly the same thing. Well, there you go, in any case, for BTC on this side. I'm not talking about a real bottom and recovery until we go back above $106,500,000. We would really need to flip this resistance level into support. And even then, it's not because we do that that it's sure, we'll go back 100%. Now yes, it would be bullish because we would have a re-entry, but then we would really need a change in our dynamic because for now, if I draw in the medium term, the lows and highs, well, low, high, low, here, high, in fact, a lower high, breaking the low. We would need a break of a significant high, something that shows us that okay, we are reversing our dynamic. You see here it was the same, we were making high, low, high, low, high, okay, low. Okay? Until we reach a stage where, well, the current high, we break it and then we make a low higher than the previous one. Well, that confirms to us that okay, we have reversed our dynamic and we will rather look for longs. I remain in this phase where I am rather cautious, even if we have a rebound, even if, as I told you, for the long term, what I really survive is the close below 106,000-107,000, it wasn't great, especially in the medium term. On the other hand, for the very long term, a big invalidation at $90,000. We go below. Yes, we would reverse the long-term structure on BTC. So something that hasn't happened yet, but it could potentially happen if in the coming weeks we don't find a buying reaction and we don't manage to put in a bottom. So on this side for BTC, at the level of Ether. Well, Ether is going to close below $300, even if we have a buying reaction, we see it well that we have a wick that is low, as we had here, as we had here. We see anyway on Ether, there is still demand. That is to say, even if we have significant drops, at the end of each week, we have a buyer awakening. We have seen it many times at this level where I had convictions that we were holding this level simply because we had buyers showing themselves. We had it here too, we have a low wick here. It shows us that low wicks remain interesting indicators that we have a low wick or high wicks. It works both ways when we have here, you see, quite a few high wicks. Here we have both high and low wicks. This shows us that we are really in indecision. So of course, some contexts are a bit more complicated than others. But generally, on Ether, even if we are trying to put in a short-term bottom, we will see it later when we zoom in on 4h 1h. As long as I don't have a real re-entry, I don't have a big signal yet that the bottom is in. Especially, we are below the 1h tunnel, but we are below the daily, we are still below the 4h. There, we are not in a context where, like here, we go back above the daily, it acts as support, even if there are small downward excesses, we go back directly above and we have moving averages oriented upwards. 1h above 4h, 15 minutes above 1h and then we are ready to make a new high. So there, that's generally what I would wait for, it's really going back above the moving averages and here going back above the levels of approximately $3,900. Generally re-entering this level. If we have that, yes, it would generally be a sale that would be rather good. So on a bit, we are a bit in a dead zone here. Now, some people who really have a very, very long-term vision on Ether and who think that $3,000, $3,200 is a good zone to reposition themselves, well, okay, there's no harm. Generally, I either wait for $3,000 with a buy signal with a buying reaction as we saw just before, or I wait for a re-entry at this level. Now, some people will say "No, wait, you don't want to buy here but you'd be willing to buy again if we re-enter." Well, here, I don't have a bullish signal for the moment or I have a signal that can be bullish but not in a zone that interests me. So yes, I clearly prefer to have a signal with better confirmation on a higher level. It's either I have a real bullish signal on a much higher level or I have a pullback on a zone that interests me a bit more where I can enter and if I have to go even lower, my my, you see here the buying reaction I'm waiting for here is quite important. I want a real buying reaction. I want a real pattern to form that shows that buyers are present. The more we go back to lower levels and the more we go back to weekly monthly levels where we are even more likely to react, well, I will be less demanding on the buying reaction I want. It's like BTC, BTC at the end of the bear market here, I was still monitoring a buying reaction but well, I entered a position because here I had bought BTC when there was no buying reaction because I thought wow, we are at really low levels etc. etc. So it will depend, it will depend on certain zones. You see when we were here on BTC, I was waiting for a buying reaction that I didn't get and if I had one, I would enter a position. I didn't get one. On the other hand, here, I entered lower without a buying reaction because I estimated that we were in a good zone to start re-exposing myself because I didn't need a buying reaction. So, well, generally on this, my opinion is exactly the same as on Ether, as I said. Here, this level, I could enter aggressively. This one, I will rather wait for a signal. And here, of course, if I have a re-entry, well, that would be rather good. Even if I enter higher, I can have a re-entry with an invalidation just below. Hop, I'll go back, I'll delete that. There, on ETR, I will still analyze the ETHBTC pair because it was a bit requested. It's true, I do it a bit less lately. The ETH BTC pair, I remind you, it allows us to measure the outperformance of Ether against Bitcoin. In an uptrend like this, it means Ether outperforms BTC, and in a downtrend like this, it means Bitcoin outperforms Ether. So if I zoom out and go back to weekly, we see that historically Ether has clearly been outperformed by BTC for 2-3 years from 2023 to approximately 2025, whereas before it was the one that was much stronger. We see that there are phases of cycles. We have come back to this major demand zone here. We have put in a W structure bottom, with higher lows and higher highs. Validation of this W pattern. And here, we are on a V-shaped rebound. There, with not too much volatility. For me, here, the bottom is in. There is very little chance that we will go back below these lows. We can have a pullback. We could come back, for example, to the neckline and then move on. It seems to me that's what we did here. You see, we had started, we had come back to the neckline, we had moved on, we had come back to the neckline again. But generally, when we have this big structure, this type of structure that is quite significant on weekly, or even monthly, it's often big bottoms that hold in the long term. Then if I put moving averages, you are roughly in the daily tunnel, from memory. Yes. So you see, yes, in the short to medium term, we have a downward trend. We clearly see the difference, whether from a price action perspective with lower lows and lower highs. Okay, here lower lows and lower highs. Or with moving averages here, moving averages that are increasingly higher and here increasingly lower. So there, and here we are coming back to the daily tunnel, which is a good location zone to potentially look for longs and aim for a trend reversal. So that means Ether is in a good zone here on the pair against BTC. So, so there you go, no bottom is in, the location zone is good, but we don't have a buying reaction, simply. So on this side for BTC Ether, at the level of altcoins, we can look a bit at the altcoins that have really stood out this week. Hop! Even if we had a pump on some altcoins, well, we still have altcoins that remain generally weak. For example, I'm thinking of Tao among the strong altcoins. You see, this is where you need to have the ability to change your bias very quickly. And that's experience, having a plan. Here, I was talking about the pump we had here, I told you that Tao had a de-correlation and was really standing out. And the proof is that in a few days, a few weeks if you will, it has almost doubled, which is not bad for a high-cap altcoin. While at that time, BTC wasn't performing that well. It was a bit shaky. And when we had the re-entry, it was at the beginning of the week, I exited TAW directly, I told you: "It's not great because when we break like that, we re-enter, there's a high chance we'll move to a weak altcoin. And we see here, that was the case. So Tao is currently a clearly weak crypto. After, among the strong cryptos this week, well, we will have ICP, we will have FT, we will have NIR, we will have Zcash. Okay? However, be careful, we are at levels on some of these cryptos, we are at clearly high levels. Okay? Are we putting in a top? For the moment, no. For the moment, no top is in. That is to say, here, every time we have retracements, don't start thinking, as many might tell you, "Yes, it's high, it's going to top." No, it's high. It's not the right time to invest. I'm talking about investing. However, for a trader, this kind of chart, we have pullbacks, we put moving averages, 15 minutes, 1 hour, pullbacks are bought with an invalidation, with good risk management. But you see, it already gives you a reference point. And the goal, that's why we put these moving averages, is to have a reference point. The goal is not to position yourself here, it's not to position yourself here, it's to position yourself when we have pullbacks within these tunnels. I can put Zcash, I can put ICP which has retraced a bit more but well, it hasn't even come back to its 1-hour tunnel. I exited 100% but yes, these are interesting cryptos. FTT, I haven't looked too much at FTT, I don't know how it's doing. FTT is less impressive because we pumped but we came from very low, from very high, so we have a good downward trend, so it's less terrible. What else do we have that was strong? NIR pumped well. If I... Yes, it's already rather good. And here, we are above the moving averages. So here, we are in a context, I don't want to start saying "Yes, that's it." In fact, this is where when I see the networks, I say "There are really a lot of clowns when a few altcoins pump, yes, Altcoin season, it's started and everything." That's not an altcoin season. That's not an altcoin season, it's really 2021 where all altcoins pumped. You see when on NIR in a few months we do this and on all altcoins we do this, then it's an altcoin, but NIR took more than 30% in the day, something like that, I think, yes +32%, okay, altcoin season has started, to the moon. I'm in "okay, let's calm down, very good." Can there be an altcoin? It can happen, anyway, altcoins arrived when no one expected it, it's always been like that, every time there was something crazy, no one expected it. The bottom on BTC in 2023, not many people expected it, okay, there you go, and that's a fact. Now, I am in a context where, as I told you, on weak altcoins like this, weak altcoins, low altcoins that haven't pumped yet, like Zcash for example. Zcash, it's too late for investment. NIR for investment, it's not too late. We can be in good zones, but if you want to actively trade this kind of crypto, you take the strongest ones as we saw, NIR, ICP and all that, hop, you zoom in on 1h 4h, you put moving averages and when we have pullbacks on these moving averages, well, we look for setups, we do trend continuation, but that already starts by doing the work of finding the altcoins that stand out, and these are the altcoins that will record good performance against BTC. You see, for example, Tao won't be interesting. TRX, no, XRP, no. On the other hand, APT, CHIP, LTC, it's not bad. DOT is also good. UNI, NIR, it's very good. You see? Well, these are to be identified. You make a list like this, you write it down, you take your notebook, you put OK ICP, FTT (in parentheses) NIR, VEC, etc. You make your list and then you go on the charts and you set your alerts. Okay? Ah, well, here, here we pumped. Ah, well, I wasn't in front of the screens. Okay. Well, good, it's sure that if you are in front of the screens 5 minutes a day, it will be complicated. It depends, of course, but someone who does intraday or swing trading needs to be a bit present, especially intraday, swing trading can still work, but above all must work with alerts and have the ability to make a decision when the alert sounds. Okay, you see when we reach the 15-minute tunnel, well, there can be a setup that can be taken. If we lose the 15 minutes and go to the 1-hour, there can be setups. But this is identifying strong altcoins, putting moving averages with an indicator like Vegas tunnels, I remind you it's an indicator, you can find it here. Hop, there. And then doing trend continuation when we have a buying reaction with good risk management. I'm not going into the details of all that, I'm going into much more detail. That's a lot of detail, I keep repeating myself. In short, in the "Devenir Trader" program, where I explain how I work with the Vegas setup, how we do trend continuation, exactly in detail how I position myself. Here, generally, I'm making you understand the broad strokes of how to behave in this kind of market context. Now, regarding the altcoins I will analyze, I was asked about ZK, ZK, ZK on Binance, by the way, tac, from memory, or I have trouble with these alts. Why? Because we are in a context that is not easy currently on cryptos, it's not all pump to the moon, okay, and taking young cryptos, which means that not all the supply is in circulation. On Zcash, we have 40% of the supply, so quite a bit of supply to unlock, which means it leads to selling pressure, it's clearly not terrible. So yes, here, we are clearly in a context where these are not the altcoins I will prefer the most, and when we have a top pattern like this, M top, bearish structure, bearish trend, range, no bottom is in. Yes, we have a V-shaped rebound, and at a stretch, it can be traded intraday if we have upward-oriented moving averages, but you see, it's less clean than the other cryptos we saw. In the long term, if you really want to enter this kind of crypto, you really have to wait for a structure to decide itself. It could be now, a pullback, a W structure like this, it could be doing something like this, and a pullback, okay, no problem, but to have a confirmation that demand outweighs supply. Now, in the short term, it can be traded, of course, if you have setups, all that. Go anyway on cryptos that have a lot of liquidity. I wouldn't do one minute on this. There, there isn't much liquidity. Well, there will be spreads, it's complicated on this, honestly, it's complicated. There will be too large spreads, complicated to have a profitable strategy on scalping, on very low cap cryptos. We are not on an ultra-low crypto either, but on scalping, scalping, it's on Bitcoin, Ether, BNB, where there is volume, you are obliged, otherwise you will get huge spreads and it will be very complicated. On the other hand, for intraday, swing trading, it's a possibility. You put moving averages and you simply do trend continuation. And I was asked, we analyzed two today. I was asked about Zerebro. I don't know at all what it is. I'll look. Zerebro, 542nd. After, be careful, all the supply in circulation. Well, then, be careful, it's not because all the supply is in circulation that it's 100% sure that the project will pump, but it's always more reassuring because when the price goes up, we will finally, when the, in fact, we have a variation of the market cap that will be simply similar according to the evolution of the price. That is to say, the market cap evolves in two ways. The evolution of supply or the evolution of price. Okay? A healthy market cap increase is a similar increase according to the evolution of price. Because it can happen that a market cap does this while a price does this. Then you will tell me, I don't understand, if the price goes down, the market cap goes down. Ah no, if the price goes down but there is a lot of inflation, a lot of dilution and supply, the market cap will go up. That ruins the project, it reduces rarity. It's not great. When all the supply is in circulation, we are already arriving at a project where, well, there won't be selling pressure. It's a bit healthier. Now, be careful, the project can be ruined and go to zero. That, that, that's a reality. It's not because the tokenomics are good. Well, I haven't gone into detail about how much the creators own of this crypto, because it might be that the founder has 80% of the supply. I haven't gone into detail, but that's something you should look at. Here, when I look at our chart, we are clearly in a sideways phase here, and we can draw a bottom. You see, this is a buying reaction, for example. I was thinking about it because I was asked the question and I talked about it earlier. The fact of having a low wick here, re-entry, this can be considered a buying reaction. Here, we are in a sideways phase, we are clearly blocked between two bounds, and a resolution from the top. This would clearly be a bullish signal. Okay. In addition, we are in the daily tunnel, so it would really be if we settle above this level, yes. We would have the validation of a reversal pattern. We would have a high chance of a retracement. I'm not saying we'll reach the ATH, okay, but at least a retracement phase. Otherwise, as long as we don't break this level upwards, we remain under selling pressure since we are preceded by a downward dynamic. And here, we are still at an extremity, so be cautious. Now, I will analyze a third one, I have a list, you can put them in the comments by the way, but I will do the third one that was also asked of me. Paul, so I will take Matic because Paul, formerly Polygon, Matic, but I prefer to take Matic for the entirety of the chart. Be careful, this is something you should look at. Now, I don't see, I don't have the whole chart here. It's breaking me. I have the whole chart. Perfect. Uh, yes, uh, be careful, someone who arrives who doesn't know, who sees Paul on CoinMarketCap or someone tells them about it, Paul, what is it? Okay, it looks like this. No, Paul looks like this. Okay. Or, you can't really know that if you weren't aware of a name change, etc. It can be, it's true that it can be dangerous, but well, it's something to consider. Well, where are we? If I take the whole chart, it's here. The problem is that they don't update it anymore here. You see, they don't update it anymore. We will keep what we have here. Well, we are clearly in a downward trend. You see, downward oriented moving averages, daily tunnel below the 3-day, a generally downward trend. No sign of a bottom being in. The only sign of a bottom I could see, we really need to go back above this level. You see, there's a significant pivot there. Come on, come on, let's take $0.30. If we really have a pump and we have this kind of break, well, here, it can be a buy signal. There. And it can be a confirmation that buyers are showing themselves and demand is greater than supply. There, that's the only signal I would see in the long term that would tell me "Okay, I have a bottom in." For now, well, we are trying to put in bottoms, but we just have V-shaped rebounds to make a lower low. And if we can make a lower low, it's possible. In this kind of context, I'm just waiting for a reversal pattern to at least tell me "Okay, we've structured something solid." There, I've finished what I wanted to say. Tell me what you think about the upcoming weekly close. Tell me also in the comments which altcoins you want me to analyze. And you still have a few hours left to take advantage of the €200 offered on the "Devenir Trader" program by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.