Transcription
Recently, many people are worried about various issues such as cross-border investment being illegal, leading to capital outflow. Additionally, there's inflation, interest rate hikes, and stock market crashes. Why have stocks fallen so much? People say they don't have time to wait. In my 2019 observations on geopolitical debates, mainly US-China relations, I predicted that the stock market would fall, and then for the next five to six years, Hong Kong stocks and all major stock markets in the region would perform poorly. In 2025, I predicted capital inflow into Taiwan, and then the three stock markets would rise by 70% to over 100%. This year, 2026, observing the development of the situation and economic data, I believe that the upward wave of prices is not the most important risk. Not being able to get your money back is more important. PYM is a risk [music] support. We have found a lot of risk information from different platforms and tools, hoping to [music] help everyone protect your assets. For information, you can visit the website with this QR code [music] or email us at alth@Cstudio. Title: PY [music] Our studio has opened an IG account. To watch the latest breaking content, news commentary, and program information, follow us immediately.
Alright, let's talk about this again. Why did it rise by 17%? Because of the real [music] situation. This also caused the [music] to rise by 100%. However, what is worth noting is the Asian market on Friday, because these past few days, I feel the rhythm is like the Asian market is moving first, and then the source. You can see that even though the Hong Kong stock market fell the night before, it was still driven by the historical so-called article, and it was also driven by the Korean market. This year, the Korean stock market has also risen strongly. So, will there be any follow-up in the Asian session tomorrow? It's worth everyone paying attention. I won't be too excited. Don't think that because the US stock market is rising, the US stock market will rise. Why? Because the money is very [music]. I wouldn't say it's the same. But it's a question of asking. OK, what can be seen? Let's look at gold, is it isolated? Is it? Like that, wow.
And also look at the OK, it's a wave lower than a wave. Because there's no money, OK. So, you say the market is rotating sectors. My theory is that more money might flow back into traditional economies. That's how you pull money out. So, you see the situation that has appeared is a bit like, there's no such thing as being worse than wrong, but it's been taken care of. For example, Salesforce, these are very obvious examples. Salesforce. Nothing special. It still has the concept of PE, falling PE. So, some netizens will say, hey, is this the time to buy? The bottom does not mean it will rise. For example, a stock, I myself am very interested in Netflix. It's like this. I think it's worth it. But it can fall further. It can fall to 15 times PE. How long will it take? It won't take long, right? If it's 360, it will become 35. It will only be over 50 yuan. It can fall. So, everyone, in this tight capital situation, be careful. For example, these. Is it AI that's not being hyped? Is it like this, falling down? Wow, it's really like the world. Even M7, don't think it's good. Amazon, OK. Amazon is better. Because first, it can, it has, it only sells this cloud service. It has its own, it has its own, it has its own electric vehicles. I can say a few words about electric vehicles. So, now, its latest, its new electric vehicle, today it seems to be expanding its charging service in the US. It's called [music]. At that time, it acquired it for 1.3 billion in 2020. It's quite impressive. Some people call it a box, like a whole multi-furnace. Inside, there is no driver. It's like a lie. I don't know if netizens dare to sit in it. Of course, if you talk about autonomous driving, then it becomes three. If it really succeeds, it will become a three-horse race. The most important and strongest is VO, of course, Google. That's why I continue to have confidence in Google. There are more reasons. OK. The first is Google V. The second is Tesla. Tesla. Then, Amazon is following. So, in fact, this will consume a lot of money. It consumes a lot of money. So, for Amazon, it's already burning money for AI, which can be said to be a double-edged sword. But, well, this autonomous driving consumes a lot of money. It's talking about burning hundreds of millions. That level. OK, it's like this. For Amazon, it's a heavy consumption. But, well, I won't argue with it.
Alright, so I'm talking about capital being very tight. So everyone needs to be very careful. The first thing is that your money can leave very quickly. If it's hyped, it can rise and then fall by 100%. OK. So, is there any good news? Fortunately, the oil price, wow, breaking 70, is really opportunistic. Ah, I really saw this. Speaking of politics today.
So, Scott Bon went on an interview. He spoke, and then he spoke on CBS about his view on the US dollar. He said that besides the war being nearing its end, I was shocked when I saw the text. Well, after the war front ends, he is confident that it will return to its three. This is not what we are talking about today. After he did the interview, I shared it with everyone. The so-called three is to reduce the GDP ratio to economic growth. And the third point. At that time, I was skeptical about the third point. So, what is the third point? Increase by 3 million barrels per day. Now, looking back, it's really the whole thing. From the time he started imposing sanctions at the end of last year, in September, he sanctioned the last two energy companies of Russia, Venezuela, and Iran. Then, plus trade, forcing people to buy your energy products. It's really done. Killing and adding every day. And this is the first point. There is also a second point.
Wow, it's really small. Then you understand why it keeps being so strong. And around 100. So, for it to fall back by 3%, I am very confident. It's extremely difficult. If you do it very well, basically I've calculated this for everyone. I calculated it very early. How can it fall back by 3%? In the US stock market sharing program, I deliberately calculated this. This was not done today. I did it a long time ago. At the beginning of the year, when I first proposed this three-three, I said, how can it fall back by 3%? I calculated it from its GDP in 2025, then calculated this, which is the number. So, it means how much the interest rate has increased, then the interest cost, then the total debt. Then, the ratio of that to the total debt. I calculated that normally you can't reach it.
The first thing is that GDP is faster than expected. Originally, I expected it to reach the end of this year, or more conservatively, by March, GDP would reach 31 trillion. But now, it's already calculated to be over 32 trillion by March, which is around 32.4 trillion. So, it should be reached ahead of schedule. OK. Well, let's assume it's now 2.2 trillion. At that time, I calculated 300 billion because you grabbed 300 billion. Now, it's gone. So, let's assume it's 2 trillion at the end of the year. Divided by 32.4 trillion, it's about 6%. How do you get back there? Is there any possibility? That is, if you want to reduce the fiscal from 1.2 trillion to 1 trillion. What's possible? Now, you need to halve the interest. Can the interest fall? Can it? Wow, this is shocking. I won't guess. I think it's very difficult. Basically, it is. Are there any other methods? First, GDP growth needs to be controlled. Well, this has a chance to be achieved. Although the first two points cannot be achieved, can the third point be achieved by the end of the year or next year? I think this is possible. Then, plus this and that. So, the first thing we observe is whether they will implement this three-three-three. That is, they might pay the bill at the end of their term. Let's see how much they achieve. The second thing is to talk about the status of the US dollar again. OK. Trump can use US dollars. I also mentioned last night that there was a report saying that a weak, stupid person allowing Trump to use US dollars is a huge advantage. Basically, it says Venezuela is now using US dollars, and Trump is also using US dollars. It's actually possible that the trend is coming back. But this time it's different from the past. Because you need to buy oil. This time it's because you need to sell oil. When people sell oil, of course, they receive US dollars. When people sell oil, you also receive US dollars. It's a strong fist. It's explosive. [Laughter] Explosive. But we can't change it. So, how do investors deal with it? Of course, it's a bomb. Isn't it? So, besides US dollars, what else? Of course, it's not as good. Isn't it? But, well, relatively speaking, US dollar underline assets, if they follow the description, are getting stronger and stronger. But it's not reflected in the rate of return. Bon said that true strong dollar is to maintain the advantage of the US dollar. He said that the US economy is now widening the gap with other regions. Even if interest rates fall, the US dollar can remain strong. This is not measured by rate of return. What is it measured by? Including financial market liquidity, market depth, etc. Wow, it's really. Really [Laughter] It's really powerful. I dare not say he is the greatest financier in the US, but in my impression, with his influence and such a [music] impact on the entire US financial [music], it is very rare, very small. Alright, OK. We will continue to observe.
So, those individual stocks, yesterday, some also fell a lot. For example, this one, no one remembers it now. It was once a focus. It just released its latest performance. What does it do? It actually makes chips. I don't know if I mentioned that it likes to design large wafers. People make smaller chips. It's not my own large wafer. It's really powerful. OK, it's a set of chips. Or, if you watch those IG videos, you can put everything together. Or, if you know how to fly, as long as it's being consumed, and the interest rate is slightly lower than last quarter, just slightly. Wow, it immediately caused a stir. As I said at the beginning. Then, there are other things. Well, some stocks, surprisingly, have stocks again. For example, Vands, this stock is unexpected. No one is shorting Vands. It rose by 26%. [Laughter] Why did it rise another ten percent? One of the reasons is that it was short-squeezed. OK. Usually, those who are short-squeezed are big players. OK. It's shorted by hedge funds, even short institutions. The short interest, wow, is reappearing. It's understandable. I myself will definitely see it happen. Then, on the aspect of electricity. Well, it's rising. Why is it so excited? It will be included in the chip ecosystem. Besides it, there is also Nanya Technology, stock code 2408. It's also powerful. This year it has risen by 13%. So, there are many such stocks in Taiwan, but you really need to be very careful. You really need to know the supply chain to know which ones will be hyped. It's really not easy. There are too many choices.
Alright, let's talk a little bit more at the end. So, 8 is 100 yuan. OK. There are two recent pieces of news. The first is that it was placed on the entity list by the US Treasury, the military. The Ministry of Defense reported it. Then, well, this is not considered big. This one is really exciting. So, Fang actually said it was conducting industrial [music]. So, the most important thing is to look at PYM. I told everyone early on that this is one of the things that came out after the rally. The White House accused Chinese AI of being a threat. This is also the sixth point of PYM's risk, which is geopolitics. And this is also one of the major risks for Hong Kong stocks. So, I told everyone early on what the so-called risk issues are. So, everyone understands. There is also something everyone needs to think about. Is it just Alibaba? Of course not. Will others be affected? This is the first and second point. Why is it accused? Is it a cover-up? Well, before, Mompic and the War Report were not getting along. They said that NB did not cooperate with the US government. They also said there were some unmanned vehicles, or something. Now, the War Report says that foreign military systems are not allowed to use their [music] systems. Is this kind of behavior, to some extent, playing with the trust of the War Report? This is not surprising. So, everyone pay attention.
Alright, so to further protect yourself, pay attention to PYM. That's it. Today is almost over. Thank you for watching. How will the US stock market perform tonight? How will the Asian market perform tonight? How will the US stock market perform? We will be back next Monday to continue sharing with you. Thank you for your support. See you next time. The rise of many countries, Trump's US-China technology war, is it igniting a tech stock bubble or an opportunity to invest in AI? BB version of our program content, AMD, Intel, ASML, 6 chip semiconductor stocks analysis and research. Want to know how we analyze the development and direction of these companies? Wealth Studio's [music]. Subscribe now. Thank you for your support. Starting today, invest.