Transcription
The altcoins continue to fall, but less than Bitcoin. We're doing our little weekly update on the indices that Coin 50s, in particular, is watching. We'll see if the fall in altcoins, which is less compared to BTC, is a real sign of a rise or not. We'll review the data we saw a little bit and see if there have been any changes. Just before we start, I remind you that you have the possibility to access our algorithms for free. 26 TP for the LIM algorithms last week and approximately +10 11 R for the SPT algorithms as well for this month so far. For example, with a capital of $1000 that will engage $5 risk per trade, 11, it generates approximately $54-55 in profit, which is a rise of 5.4%. I repeat once again, past performance is not indicative of future results. All algorithm results are posted every week in the Discord, in the weekly results and performance channels. To access it, it's free, it's the first link in the pinned comment. It will take you to this page. You just need to register on Bitgate. Vi, our partner link. Bitgate is currently offering you 10% cashback on your first deposit. If you make a deposit of $2000 for example, you get $200 cashback. You just need to create your account, make a deposit, make a trade to activate your cashback. To access the alo mentorship, VIP Altcoin, it's free. It's this second link. It's a short 10-minute video in which I explain absolutely everything. If you just want the mentorship, you can. If you want everything, you can too. If you just want the mentorship and the VIP Altcoin, you can also. The mentorship is here. We've added a new mindset module. We'll be adding more courses soon. And you'll also have access on Discord to the VIP Altcoin in the VIP crypto. These are channels reserved for VIP members, so for Bitgate affiliates. This is where I will share the best opportunities in the altcoin market from my point of view.
So, to come back to Coin 50 here, we had seen targets to aim for. For the moment, the market continues to slide south. Now, we have altcoins that are holding up rather well, other altcoins that are falling more. But overall, the altcoin market is holding up rather well. If I look at the altcoin dominance, we can see that it is rising. So, which means that Bitcoin is falling more. Now, one must not confuse a rise in altcoin dominance. So, altcoins are rising. There are certain altcoins that are managing to hold their ground or even pump a little. But if we look at the total market cap, we can clearly see that the overall market capitalization is falling. If we look at the altcoin capitalization, we see that it is stabilizing, but there is still selling pressure, right? So, this does not mean for the moment that we are out of the woods, that it's altcoin season, etc., etc. These are first good signs. But then the question, as I was saying, is whether we are really seeing first good signs or whether the altcoin market is simply holding up because it has already done the bulk of its crash before? That's the question. But I'll come back to that later.
To return to Coin 50 here, why do I analyze this index? Because for me, it's one of the cleanest indices. I think it's observed by big players in this market, particularly by big American institutions, I think. And for now, it's an index that is still trending downwards. Now, we can see that we are working on this little fair value gap zone in daily. So, we see that this is where we are consolidating. I don't think we're going to bottom out here, to be honest. After, it's a zone that's not too bad. For me, the real zone to re-work, I've already talked about it, is this big dip in the volume profile that we have here between, approximately, to be precise, between $320 on this index and $345. This also corresponds to our last fair value zone that was not worked on during this entire bullish movement. So, I think we're more likely to come back here. This also corresponds to the re-accumulation zone. So, if I had to bet on a bottom, assuming of course there's no knife that triggers on this market because now it's becoming an increasingly important risk given the order flow reading. So, what's happening on derivatives compared to the spot market? Sellers on the spot market and on Bitcoin derivatives control the market without any problem. There are no signs of buying strength for now. So, that's why prices are falling. No one is interested in actively buying. Passively, yes, passively it's limit orders. So, in short, the lower the price falls, the more you position yourself by placing buy limits, right? So, you buy the sellers' orders, but there are no active buyers. Perhaps this would happen with good news or a major catalyst, but for now, that's not the case. And so, to come back to the altcoin side, we see that on this Coin 50 index, well, we can still go a little lower. And why do I talk about a knife? Because on the other side, on BTC derivatives, we can see on Hyper Liquid that at the slightest rebound, open interest explodes, funding explodes, and that's not good at all. So, a knife on Bitcoin could force an acceleration on altcoins if BTC starts to drop severely. Now, we are far from that for the moment, and what is factual is that the altcoin market is holding up well. So, the question is, is there a rotation of capital from Bitcoin to altcoins? I don't believe in that at all. That's not my theory at all. That's not why altcoin dominance is rising. That would mean that altcoins are safe-haven assets. That doesn't make sense. Gold is falling, US indices are falling. Everything is falling, except altcoins. Incredible. Altcoins, the safe haven, we sell our stocks, we sell our indices, we sell our gold to buy altcoins. No, that's not coherent. We can see here that the dollar is also starting to rise again and that is putting pressure on risk assets. The theory, and it hasn't changed, I talked about it last week, we'll see if it's still relevant, is that people are taking a lot of risks on derivatives when sellers literally control the market and there are no signs of real buying pressure. So, buyers are not at all interested in positioning themselves on BTC. Now, perhaps that will change in the coming days, but for now, that's not the case. But on the other hand, everyone is leveraging up on BTC. So, I'm showing you here the ratio, simply the open interest to market cap ratio. And this shows us leverage. The market is more leveraged on BTC before the crash we had on October 10th. So, now people are leveraging up as much as possible. So, in short, there are simply a lot of aggressive sellers on BTC, much less on altcoins, and on the other hand, on derivatives, people are taking insane risks. And so, that makes a magic cocktail. There is a lot of selling on spot. There are a lot of speculators on derivatives who are only going long. Well, long and short, but it's the longs who have been trapped since the beginning. So, this accumulates stops and liquidations. You just have to look, for example, at a liquidation heatmap on Hyper Liquid. These are real liquidations because on Hyper Liquid, everything is transparent. There is a huge cluster between $83,000 and $84,005. This also perfectly corresponds to the first stop. So, a zone that we can trigger. But on the other hand, on altcoins, selling pressure is less because the fall has already been much more significant and because on derivatives, everyone has already been cleaned out. You just have to look at the behavior of speculators in the altcoin market to realize it. Here, I'll show you again the leverage ratio that we have on altcoins. Hoping it loads. Otherwise, I'll refresh the page, it's not a big deal. And we'll see that it's not at all the same. That is to say, on BTC, it's leveraging up a lot. Yes, I need to refresh here. On altcoins, however, that's not the case. So, that's positive for altcoins, but it's positive in the sense that altcoins won't explode. If Bitcoin doesn't rise, altcoins won't rise, or at least not much. But it simply means that there is no huge risk on altcoins because the knife has already happened. We've already had the big cleanup that liquidated over $20 billion in open interest. And in terms of leverage, people are not saying "Okay, we're going to go long on altcoins." People are saying "We're going to go long on BTC on this dip." So, that's what's causing the altcoin market to fall less. And so, that's what's causing the altcoin market cap to fall less than the BTC market cap. So, that increases dominance, but it doesn't mean there's a rotation of capital from Bitcoin to altcoins. Money is leaving the market right now. We can see that at the stablecoin issuance level. We can see that, for example, last week, we were at $384 million in stablecoins burned in delta. This means that more money has left than has entered. And this has been happening for almost 4 weeks. This will potentially be the 4th week if we continue to burn stablecoins in the coming days. So, I don't see how, without liquidity and with a market that is generally falling, with indices falling, all markets falling, that money would go into altcoins, it seems very unlikely to me. So, I just think it's arbitrage on derivatives, simply, with more selling pressure on Bitcoin than on Ethereum. And that's what explains this rise in Bitcoin dominance, or rather altcoin dominance. And so here, uh, tac tac tac tac tac, what was I going to say? Yes, at the liquidation level, at the selling pressure level, and yes, so, that's what causes the altcoin market to suffer less, but it doesn't necessarily mean it's good, it's going to the moon again, etc. Now, the chart is beautiful here, the altcoin chart. What would be positive is once Bitcoin marks its bottom. So, I think Bitcoin will clean everyone out. Well, the zone seems to be 83 to 85 if we look at derivatives liquidations. If we also look personally, these are my targets at the breaker level of the first stop. So, it's really in that area. If we start to break through that, frankly, I'm telling you, it smells like a cleanup below $74,000. But in fact, that's it, it's that if Bitcoin goes into a knife, the question is, will altcoins go into a knife? And so here, you see the leverage ratio, people are leveraging up, whether long or short, but currently sellers control the market. So, here, that's the thing. So, here I have to remove all because it's not to remove BTC ETH, you have to look only at altcoins, hoping it loads. That's what I wanted to show you here. So, we'll wait for it to load a bit. Now, on the other hand, if it starts to leverage up on altcoins, then it will accelerate the fall in altcoins. So, that's what I'm waiting to see. You see, that's not the case. That is to say, on altcoins, it's more of a, when we compare since October 29th, since October 13th, look how much it's been leveraging up like crazy on BTC, and especially since November 13th. So, for 5 days now, people have been trying to capture the bottom with leverage. On the other hand, on altcoins since November 13th, it's rising, but very little. That is to say, but there's nothing extraordinary. There's really nothing extraordinary. People have been massively cleaned out. So, well, it's, and at the open interest level, we see simply that it's very flat, people are not leveraging up. So, in fact, that's what favors the fall of Bitcoin against altcoins. But to come back to it, it's just a question of greater selling pressure on BTC and people leveraging up on derivatives, which favors this fall. But that doesn't mean that altcoins are really strong, that there's really high demand, etc. It just means that there's probably little activity. And that also testifies to market psychology. We see that there isn't necessarily panic on the price. Now, there's a bearish sentiment. There's, well, let's say the sentiment is mixed. Let's say 50-50, because I see a lot of people who are bullish and trying to capture the dips. On the other hand, I see everyone announcing targets of 30,000, etc. So, it's a sentiment that's more in the extremes. But what I wanted to say is that real panic is often when it starts to drop on altcoins, and that's when people hit the sell button because the Bitcoin drop is too strong. And in fact, this indicates that there is no panic on BTC because panic often occurs at the altcoin level. And we see that at the open interest level on altcoins, there is no panic at all, there are no positions closing in cascade, there are no massive position closures. On an index like Ods, for example, we can see here that we are simply diverging well against Bitcoin. So, Bitcoin is not falling. Here, we see that we are precisely at support zones, simply at the level of the last lows that have marked support several times around $220 billion, $200 billion in valuation. So, there is no wave of panic on altcoins. And so, I'm not saying it will happen, obviously, I don't know if it will happen or not. So, on the one hand, it's positive because if Bitcoin forms a bottom at 83,000 and starts to rise again, then we'll have to see if altcoins will remain strong or not. That will be the real dilemma of the market. In case of a bottom, let's imagine at $83,000, so there would be almost nothing left, a 7% drop, given the resilience of altcoins, it shouldn't do much. Perhaps it will recover the low of November 4th, at most. Okay, 7% again. And then, if Bitcoin starts to rise again and altcoins are stronger. Yes, that would be a real signal. It would be a real signal that indeed we will prioritize investments, purchases in altcoins on the BTC rebound or its eventual bottom and its future recovery to new ATHs, etc. We don't know what the future holds. But on the other hand, and this will be a big signal if BTC bottoms out at 83. We're talking about the scenario where there's no knife. After, we'll talk about the scenario where there is a knife because, well, that's what derivatives are starting to indicate little by little, but it's not certain that it will happen. And on the other hand, if it then bottoms out and rises again, and altcoins are super weak, that will confirm the theory. It's just a derivatives point of view, but there aren't necessarily buyers, there isn't necessarily demand, it's just that there was no one left to liquidate, everyone has already sold, or at least those who panicked have panicked. The others are holders who are holding on. So, that's what causes very little selling pressure on altcoins. And so, that's what causes, when Bitcoin rebounds, well, it rebounds very weakly on altcoins because in fact, there is a general lack of interest, whether from buyers or sellers. So, that's what we'll have to observe. And so, at that point, if we rebound on BTC, but on altcoins it rebounds very little, what will happen to altcoin dominance is that it will fall again. So, that's what will be observed. There is a second scenario, which is the general panic scenario, which can happen given what's happening on derivatives. Now, I'm not telling you that this scenario will absolutely happen. Frankly, if I had to give probabilities, a week ago, I'd say it was 10-15%. Now, I'm starting to think, maybe, although that doesn't mean anything, but to give you an idea of my sentiment, I'm starting to think, "Okay, there's maybe a 30-35% probability that it will happen now, given what we're seeing on derivatives." Well, if that happens, then the knife on BTC, where BTC literally just recovers all the sell stops and all the liquidations below this low, below $74,000. So, that could cause another 20% drop in BTC if we go into a knife. Like, in short, it wipes everyone out, right? That is to say, in short, it does something like this, a nasty wick like this, and then it goes back up. At that point, it could trigger a wave of panic and it could start to activate algorithms that will play on BTC volatility and try to push the price lower on altcoins and also try to trigger new liquidations. And that's when, if it goes into a knife on Bitcoin, then on altcoins, we risk seeing something like this as well, and it could accelerate. That's it, that's just what you need to keep in mind. What is factual is that the dynamic remains bearish, but that we have strength in altcoins against BTC. For the moment, we can justify this strength by an excess of over-speculation on Bitcoin derivatives and very aggressive selling pressure. We can see that at the CVD level, for example, whether on the spot market or the perpetual market. And we can also see it by people trying to long every dip on Hyper Liquid. Here, as soon as there's a small rebound, boom, open interest, funding increases. Same at Babbit Binance, so everyone is in "We have to capture the dip. If it goes without us, it's the end of the world." It's not at all a bottom sentiment. On the other hand, we don't have that at all on altcoins, so that's rather okay. And we see at the leverage ratios that there's nothing. However, it's starting to increase a little. So, if Bitcoin continues to put pressure and suddenly people say, "Oh, let's go long on altcoins because altcoins will explode when Bitcoin bottoms out." That will be dangerous for altcoins. But for now, that's not the case at all. So, that's what we'll continue to monitor in the coming days. I'll stop here. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the blue thumbs, subscribe, and leave a little comment. A big thank you to those who play along. Leave me in the comments the altcoins you want me to analyze, I'm interested. I'll pick from them and do little altcoin analyses here and there.