Transcription
I genuinely believe that this video is the ultimate cheat code to starting your fantasy season this year on a winning streak. Last year, the people who drafted Roma Dunay, Amecha, Eggbuka, Quinton Johnson, they started the year winning. And if they traded those players at the right time, they probably just went ahead and won their whole damn league.
Today, I am using deep dive research to identify over 20 players who I believe will get off to a hot start this year and will likely spike value to begin the season. You can win with them. You can trade them away, but these guys are the guys you want on your rosters in the first five weeks of the season.
So, in today's research, I'm analyzing weeks one to five using Vegas lines from Yahoo, strength of schedule from Warren Sharp, which by the way, his strength of schedule tool looks at the quality of the opponents you face using efficiency metrics like EPA per play, success rate, and Vegas win totals. It doesn't just look at last year's record. That's a broken method. Uh, shout out to Warren Sharp. He's great. We're using ADP today and projections from ESPN's Mike Clay, so they're not even my projections. They're all completely unbiased in today's video.
Um, all of today's research, by the way, is set to be available in my draft guide for 2026. You can get that by using the promo code land, getting the season pass for just $34 for the entire NFL fantasy football season.
I'm going to go position by position and tell you what players to target. But before I do, give me 60 seconds so I can tell you how this works. Because every pick in this video, it's asking the same exact questions, right? And there's two of those questions.
Question number one, is the team going to score? And for that, we are using Vegas's implied team point totals from weeks 1 to five. And we're trying to identify what NFL teams are projected to score the most points to begin the NFL season. Okay. Why are we using Vegas? Well, because Vegas, there's literally billions of dollars. Sports books are sharp. Billions of dollars are funneling through these sports books each and every single week. I averaged out every team's first five weeks of their implied team point total. It's very simple. If a team is projected to score over 24 points per game, I gave them a hot start offense type of tag.
And the second question we're asking is who are they playing? And this is where the Warren Sharp strength of schedule tool comes into play. The best part is it looks specifically at rushing matchups and passing matchups. So, for example, if we look at the Los Angeles Rams here, you can see top left, these are pass friendly slates of games. Top uh bottom right is run friendly slate of games. Bottom left, these are matchups that are brutal for everyone in the [clears throat] first five weeks. And top right, these are matchups that are great for both rushing and passing attacks. Again, we're looking at the uh pass defense strength of schedule weeks one to five and the rush defense uh from weeks one to five.
So, for example, the Rams, let's put this in very simple word verbiage, okay? The Rams have the fourth easiest run uh schedule to start the season, weeks 1 to five. They also have the hardest passing defenses they'll face, number 32 from weeks one to five. So, every pick today, I am considering not just strength of schedule, but also for that specific position. And when both of those question marks are checked boxes, that's when we find the players that we're really looking for today.
I mean, for example, with the quarterbacks, we've talked about Lamar Jackson all year. The best news, we've been in on him, but also he has an incredible start to the season. We'll talk about that more uh as we get through today's video. There'll be two kind of picks for each category, a smash pick and a sleeper pick.
Let's start off with the running backs. Now, first player we'll talk about here is Mr. Durka Derka Derek Henry. The Baltimore Ravens through the first five weeks currently have the highest projected team implied point total. They're projected to score 27.1 points per game. 27.1 points per game, the highest in the entire NFL. And when we look at that list of running backs that we're targeting, obviously we see Derrick Henry, but we also see that he has the 10th easiest uh matchups against run defenses to start the year. So, not only is does his team have the highest implied team point total to start the year, he also has top 10 matchups. Overall, this defense uh sorry, this offense is facing the fourth easiest schedule. When you look at some of these matchups, I mean, some of them are absolute smashes on the ground like Dallas in week three, the Falcons in week five, you got the Titans there, you got the Saints there. By far the best September offense in football is probably going to be the Baltimore Ravens. They're going to be a theme on today's video.
Second running back I think is going to start off absolutely smashing is Kairen Williams. The Los Angeles Rams are currently third in projected team points per game. They're projected for 26.1 points per game. Again, that is through Vegas. That's not me making that up. That is Vegas Lines. And when we when we look at a team like the Los Angeles Rams, we talked about this earlier, but they are 32nd against the pass and fourth against the run to start the year. They had the most difficult pass evens to start the year. They've got the Broncos in week three, the Eagles in week four, the Bills in week five. I'm not telling you to like avoid a Matthew Stafford or a Puka Nakua, but maybe Matthew Stafford starts off a little bit slower. And in the opposite, you're going to see a guy like Kyron Williams start off really hot. They've got San Francisco, the Giants, the Bills, the Eagles. These are all teams that you're typically wanting to run against. These could all be shootouts, but specifically you might be funneling your attack on the ground rather than through the air. So Kyron Williams could be an absolute steal again at ADP.
Let's go to the Seattle Seahawks. Now the Seahawks are a team when you look at our implied team point total. They are projected to be top eight in football at 25 a.5 points per game. They've got some really high projected points uh in like week two with over 27, week five with over 26. And you look at a team like the Seattle Seahawks and we see them at the top right of these charts, right? That's because they are a great matchup across the board. They have the fifth best rushing schedule and the third best schedule through the air. Look at some of the defenses that they're facing on the ground. The Cardinals, the Commanders, the 49ers, the Chargers. I mean, this is a dream schedule to open the season. I don't know how you could have wished for a better better schedule than this. It's his backfield for the entirety of September. I know he's a rookie, but Zack Charbanet will not be back by that time. He's a round five pick. Nobrainer. If you have, you know, maybe you need a second running back in the fifth round, to me, Jaren Price is going to be off to a really hot start. And because he's a rookie, if he does that early, people could be even higher on him as the season begins.
Okay, let's go to the Chicago Bears. Specifically, we're going to shout out DeAndre Swift. The Chicago Bears currently projected for about 24.6 points per game. They have a couple big games on the schedule like week four where they're projected for over 27 points. Still crazy that the Ravens are projected for over 27 points the entire stretch, but Chicago could come off to a really hot start as a offense. Now, they actually have a tough start to the year through the air. They have the 23rd most difficult schedule uh when you look at their passing attack. defenses like the Vikings, the Eagles, the Panthers, who you typically want to run on, you don't want to throw on. And then you look at the Chicago Bears right now. You can see them at the bottom right of your screen. Again, a runfriendly straight uh slate to start the year. They have the 12th easiest schedule on the ground, the 23rd most difficult schedule through the air. I mean, it's not that hard to imagine the Chicago Bears and Ben Johnson funneling their defense, sorry, their offense through the rushing attack with DeAndre Swift.
This takes me to my sleepers because I also believe that Kyle Manongi is a great sleeper pick. If they're going to be in control of these games versus the Jets versus the Panthers, then there's totally a possibility that Kyle Bongai could be a legitimate flex to start the year. He has the same, you know, offensive environment that a DeAndre Swift does. Our our second sleeper, a team that we've talked about before, the Los Angeles Rams. Again, the Rams, same offense as Kron Williams. Fourth easiest run defense to start the the year according to Warren Sharp's strength the schedule tool. Again, look at that. It's the Niners. It's the Giants. It's the Bills. And if anything happens to Kairen, you have a league winner. If nothing happens, then there's potential for Blake Cororm and Kairen Williams to both get plenty of work.
Now, I saved a unique one for last. We're specifically going to talk about the handcuff in Detroit. I believe that Isaiah Pacheco is one of the more underrated handcuffs in fantasy football this year. Now, Detroit is currently second in total um points projected through the first five weeks. They're right behind the Baltimore Ravens. And when you look at, you know, what Vegas expects versus what like even a Mike Clay would project for a team like this, you're going to see Detroit, they're at the top right. Right now, they have the second easiest schedule against uh the rush. They have the 11th easiest schedule against the passing attack. If you're a Gibbs guy, this graphic clearly works well for you as well. But they've got a great start of the SK of the season to their schedule. And there's chance that the David Montgomery role might still be alive and well with one Isaiah Pacheco. He's one of the last picks you can make in your draft. Why not go target him?
Okay, let's go to the wide receiver section here. All right. And what we're going to be looking at here, remember at the bottom right of this graph, we talked about how these are run friendly slates to start the season. We look, we're looking at weeks one to five with strength of schedule. Well, at the top left, this is where we're going to find a lot more of our pass friendly slates, teams that might be uh more enticed to throw the ball to start the year, right? Teams that Vegas expect to score a lot of points, but it might be through the air.
My first smash here is very easily going to be a player that I've pounded the table for a lot this off seasonason. That is Z Flowers. Like we said, Baltimore. You're going to see them a lot in today's video. I'm targeting all of my Baltimore Ravens, but no one is projected to score more points through five weeks than the Baltimore Ravens. And they currently face the fourth easiest passing defenses on average in the league. Again, according to Warren Sharp, you can see some of these cupcake matchups like the Dallas Cowboys, the Tennessee Titans, and this is one of those teams, you know, when you look at again that pass versus run slate, this is just one of those teams in Baltimore where across the board, it's it's an incredible offense to target. Number four passing defense, uh number 10 versus rushing defenses. They are just an incredible offense to target. Not only does Vegas believe so, but also Warren Sharp believe so.
Second receiver that we are going to target here is Mr. Jameson Williams. He's currently remember ended the year from weeks after their bye-week from week like nine onwards was a top 12 fantasy football wide receiver. We're looking at Detroit again second and in projected points scored uh by any team. Only Baltimore scores more. You've got uh the 53rd pick off the board right now. Jameson Williams a top 20 receiver season is likely ahead of him. I don't see why you wouldn't go out there and and and and target a guy like Jameson Williams. We look at the Detroit Lions this year. They are projected for the first five weeks, the second easiest schedule against the run, and the 11th easiest schedule against the pass. Some juicy matchups to start the year, right? Like the Jets in week three, the Cardinals in week five. I mean, a lot of these games, they're probably going to be up and there will be plenty of opportunities to target Jameson Williams deep down the field.
All right, this next one a lot of you guys hate, but I really think you're undervaluing him. That is Rasheed Rice. The Chiefs are currently projected to score 24.8 points per game. Something to note, they do have a by-week in week five. So, they're one of those early by-eek teams. But when you look at a team like the Kansas City Chiefs, this is a team where when we look specifically at Warren Sharp's strength of schedule for uh positional groups, this is where you're specifically going to see maybe that payoff the most because the Chiefs have the 28th most difficult schedule against the run, but the ninth easiest schedule against the passing attack. Uh, and you look at some of these matchups on the ground, like the Denver Broncos, the Colts, uh, even the Raiders weren't a great matchup on the ground last year. The passing game runs through Rashi Rice, and they're probably going to be forced to pass the ball a lot.
Probably my favorite, you know, outcome from this video was giving me a reason to be even more in on a name like Christian Watson this year. Christian Watson's the name I want a lot of stock of. The Green Bay Packers are projected for 25.3 or so points per game right there by the Seahawks, the Chiefs, the Bears, they should have a great start to the season. And when we look at a name like a Christian Watson, okay, I built out this little table. Again, you'll be able to find it in my draft guide. It'll be there very, very soon. We're looking at hot startersh here. Okay, Christian Watson, when you sort by ADP and when you sort by wide receiver ones who are on really good offenses that were that's what we're looking at. All these offenses that you're looking at here in this hot starter list, they're all good offenses project for a high amount of points per game that Vegas, you know, looks on favorably. And when we sort by wide receiver ones coming off the board, you will see Christian Watson by far the cheapest wide receiver one of any offense that has a positive environment. They also are facing the sixth easiest passing defenses in the first five weeks. Christian Watson, it's an absolute cupcake schedule, ladies and gentlemen. We've got the Jets, the Falcons, the Bucks, the Bears. This is a dream schedule to open up for Christian Watson. He's super cheap in your draft, 66th overall in ADP. Go target Christian Watson.
Now, because we're talking about Christian Watson, the obvious sleepers here who are in the same exact scenario would be your Jaden Reeds of the world, your Matthew Golden of the world, who are both featured in today's video as well. If you want to take on those shot a shot on those guys deep down your boards, hey, the early season schedule says you might get a decent return from those guys straight away. Maybe they turn into some trade bait for you. We also talked about Rishi Rice. Again, same case for him with um Xavier Worthy. And one of my other favorite takeaways from today's video absolutely has to be Rasheed Shahed. I mean, I have not been big on Rashid Shahed. Recently, I've heard a lot of rumors that they are heavily going to get him more involved through the air, having him run more complex routes in this offense. You know, they traded for him last year, didn't use him much as a receiving threat, more as a special teams guy. But Seattle, remember, projected to score 25.4 4.5 points per game, top eight in September. And when we look at a team like the Seattle Seahawks, they are one of these schedules where you want to target it across the board, right? They are soft everywhere versus the run top five matchups, right? Versus the pass top three schedule amongst all wide receivers. I mean, this is absolutely a schedule I want to see for my wide receiver, right? Like the Cardinals, the Commanders, the 49ers. If Rasheed Shahid is going to be a big part big part of their offense, you might find that out earlier than you even anticipated.
All right, let's go to the quarterback spot here. And I really think if you're a Jackson Dart guy, you're going to love this video because all the research to start the year suggests that Jackson Dart could be starting off on a heater. Now, here's the thing. Vegas does not like the Giants. Right now they have the Giants right around 18th in imply team point totals uh per game about 23 points per game. So they're not exactly in love with Jackson Dart per se. I understand why they feel that way but when you look at the schedule to start the year the Giants man I mean they have the number one schedule for quarterbacks to start the year when you're looking at like efficiency uh that of the defenses that you're facing. They've also got the third best uh schedule from rushing defenses. But look at this. They got the Cowboys in week one, the Titans, the Cardinals, the Commanders. The only matchup you're not dreaming about is that Rams matchup where he's going to face Miles Garrett in week number two. But man, I'm telling y'all, no Malik Neighbors is tough, but this dude could easily be a top three scoring quarterback through the first five weeks. You can sell high on him. you can believe in him. Maybe he does that without Malik Neighbors and Neighbors is coming back. Who knows what's capable with your roster.
Okay, we're also going to talk about Dak Prescott here. The Dallas Cowboys, of course, a top four projected offense to start the year. Tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for that position. Only the Rams, Lions, and the Baltimore Ravens are projected to score more points per game through the first five weeks. And when we look at the specifically through the air, you'll see the Dallas Cowboys as one of these teams who are more leaning towards a pass friendly slate to begin the season. They have a top 10 matchup against passing defenses, but the 17th uh ranked matchup against the rushing defenses through the first five weeks. You've got CD Lamb, you've got George Pickkins, the schedule says you might be looking to throw the ball. Dak Prescott's a target for us.
How about Lamar Jackson? We talked about it all. Uh, you know, every Raven we are drafting. Lamar Jackson is not a discount. He is the cheapest that a quarterback 2 has ever been in fantasy football drafts in the last 11 years. All of the early season schedule says that he's going to be an absolute smash. There's no reason why you wouldn't go out there and absolutely target a Lamar Jackson. Again, don't forget Baltimore Ravens to start the year. fourth best passing uh schedule against passing defenses, excuse me, and top 10 against the run.
All right, let's go to some sleepers. Jared Goff, we talked about how much we loved uh this Jameson Williams, for example. We talked about Isaiah Pacheco. 11th e easiest schedule against the pass. And if we all love all those weapons, we should probably love Jared Goff. Another one I want to talk about here is Kyler Murray. Uh Vegas doesn't love the Minnesota Vikings, but they do have the fifth easiest schedule against uh through the air, excuse me. They're facing defenses like the Chicago Bears, the Tampa Bay Bucks, the Miami Dolphins. I would not be surprised if Kyler Murray gets off on an absolute heater. And in superlex leagues alone, Sam Darnold is probably a really good target at the back end of your draft. They are top five across the board both on the ground and through the air when they're looking at defenses they're facing through the first five weeks.
Okay, let's quickly go through the tight end position. Uh we are going to tucker uh target Tucker Craft for a lot of the same reasons that we talked about with uh Matthew Golden earlier with Christian Watson. We are going to target Sam Laaporta. Again, another team that's projected to score a ton of points. 11th easiest pass defense uh schedule through the year. It's a good price on Leaporta. He could start off hot on the sleeper section. We're gonna do one more Baltimore Raven in today's video. Mark Andrews. He's a huge discounted uh tight end. No more Isaiah Likely. And speaking of Isaiah Likely, the New York Giants, like we said, they currently have the best schedule through the air. And if Malik Neighbors is not available, who are they going to throw the ball to? Isaiah likely, the brand new featured weapon who gets talked up in every single, you know, beat writers report about preseason. I mean, remember that schedule. The Cowboys, the Titans, the Cardinals, the Commanders. Why? If if you're going to go late tight end, Isaiah Likely should definitely be one of those guys that you target to end your draft.
Okay, guys. What do you think about the video? I know it's a little bit different than normal. Do you guys like these deep dive research type of videos or do you want me to do more player takes? Do me a favor, hit that like button, show some love. Subscribe if you haven't yet. I'm on the road to 100K. With your help, I know we can get there. and I'll see you guys in the next video. Nothing but love.
>> This is Chad.
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Last year, Chad joined his friend's fantasy football league for the first time.
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He drafted the worst team possible and finished last place. A year later,
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he lost his job, his wife left him, and his kids no longer respected him. Don't be like Chad.
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Get the season pass for just $34 with the promo code land. Draft day is
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