Transcription
What's up everyone? All right. Well, here we are. It's Friday. We've made it to the end of the week, which has been a terrible week. And we've made it to the end of the month. It's been a good month, all things considered. It's a green month for me. I'm grateful for that. But this will be a red week.
Now, I usually accept that I may have a few red days each month. I'm not going to have a perfect streak of no red days, but I try to at least close each week in the green. That was really hard this week because no trades on Monday, no trades on Tuesday. Wednesday, I got one trade, but it wasn't in my retirement account. So, that was a bummer. Yesterday, I got a couple trades, but didn't make much progress. And then today, boom, max loss in my retirement account. So, yeah, that's a bummer. That's a tough way to finish the week. It's a disappointing way to finish the month.
Um, and I suppose we knew that there was a higher likelihood that this could happen. Uh, I would say today, did I give into the stubbornness that I had yesterday? A little bit. Probably held a little longer than I should have. Probably took a little more sides than I should have. It's kind of like, you know, you stand at at, you know, home plate and you're kind of winding up and you're just you're waiting. And I've been waiting all week and I've only gotten like two pitches. And I just sit there waiting like, "You gonna throw the ball or what? What's going on? What's going on? What's going on?" Finally, the ball comes and you swing at it. You're just thrilled to see something moving. But was it a perfect pitch? Was it a perfect, you know, no, it wasn't. So, let's go ahead and jump onto the screen share and start breaking it down.
BTL is the one that got me today. And I had mentioned it yesterday. It actually popped up on the scans yesterday. Did a round trip or no, that was the day before. And I was like, "Yeah, it's an oil company, fossil fuels. This doesn't surprise me." And yet today, it's up 36%. I am surprised by that. It doesn't really um strike me as the type of stock that would make a big move today, but you know, global events uh certainly have an influence on the price of um oil. And so that I I suppose is a factor here. And we have seen that in the past. So this is the way I approached it. BATL first pops up on the scans um down here at about $5 a share, makes a new high right in this area. And I'm thinking, you know, I'm not really sure. I'm I'm really not thinking it's going to be that interesting. But it goes to five all the way up to 510 all 515 all the way up to 525. Then it dips down. And I was like, hm, should I buy that dip? I was like, well, it's a little topping tail. I don't know. I'm not I'm still not really sure. Goes to 525, 535, 45, 55, 55, 55, 55, 55, 55, 55, 55, 55, 55, 55, 65, 75, 85 and I was like wow okay here we go. So I took my first trade right here at 5 about 585 and um once again I took my first trade in the wrong account. I took it in my my taxable account which I don't typically day trade in. I just use it for doing demos and stuff like that. And so I had a winner right here from 585 up to about 6 which was fine. Then I switched to my retirement account and I bought this dip right here at 5.85 and well you see we came back up there for a second but it did not hold this level and it rejected and I finally stopped out um on this candle right here.
During this pullback, I held. And what I was waiting for during this pullback was the first one minute candle to make a new high. So I thought, all right, I'm in a little high on this, but I'm going to let this one minute candle pull back. And then I'm looking for the first one minute candle to make a new high. So right here, I was looking for the next candle to break over 585 and a squeeze back through six. And boom, I'm good. And when it broke down there, I had to stop out. And that was it. I stopped out. I didn't get much slippage. I was out at 563 and 559, but it ended up selling off, coming all the way back down. Then it rallies up here just after the opening bell and kind of does the same thing. So, this does four green candles, then gives it all back. Four green candles and now it's giving it back. So, that's kind of a bummer. Usually, we would expect first candle to make a new high. Now, I was in a little high here, um, which wasn't ideal. and I sold half the position for a tiny profit and I was ready to and so I was still holding the remaining position. So I reduced my risk during the pullback and I was looking to add for the next leg higher and then it just sort of fell apart. It just didn't happen. And so you know I ended up taking a loss of 6,700 bucks. Bummer.
All right. So that's going to put me in the red on the week. Still green on the month but in the red on the week. Uh, you know, it just it is what it is. And there's no really not much time to recover. I mean, it's still not even 10:00 a.m. You could argue I could stick around here all day long. Uh, but statistically, I know that if I kept trading, I actually have an 80% chance I would double my loss today from 6700 down to about 13,000 14,000. And it's not worth it. It's not worth it. None of this action is strong enough. I shouldn't have lost this much today. I shouldn't have taken so much risk. I sized up too much for the break of six. You know, I got I got a little stubborn. And this is the hardest part about being in a cold market is having the patience. And then after a loss, it's a little harder to be patient. And so, you know, I'm bummed out.
CDIO, side note, you know, this one, um, kind of a wildcard stock made a big move after hours here at 620. It goes from $6 up to $10 a share. big topping tail, drops back down, pops up a little pre-market, then spends the rest of premarket under the volume weight average price right here. Breaks VWAP. You know, I sort of saw it on this little pullback right around $7. Thought interesting. Could that work? Well, one issue today with it is the relative volume is lower. Relative volume is only 1.43. I like a relative volume minimum of five. The relative volume is lower because it's on like day seven of squeezing up. Now, could this be a day where shorts finally give up? You've got a gap on the daily chart here. Um the gap is from 738. We're right at the bottom of it up to about uh 11. So it's like we do have room on the one hand. Um but on the other hand, we kind of got into that gap last night and then it it rejected. So that makes me think that it's probably not going to work and that there may be some people who bought from a few days ago who are going to be taking profit up here. So, unfortunately, the daily on this with the declining relative volume and, you know, just being a bit extended is probably going to hold it back. So, that one's not probably going to work. I mean, maybe it will, but I don't know. So, you know, just kind of running out of um running out of ideas here. And at this point, I think any trades would be grasping at straws and uh trying to throw a hailmary pass. And I'm not down enough that it's worth taking that risk. Throwing a Hail Mary pass. I mean that that would be like throwing a hailmary pass when you're at the end of the first quarter and you're down a couple points. Like hold it together. You don't want to throw an interception and ruin the whole thing here. Just just take a second, take a breath. This is big picture, not that big of a deal.
So the problem is it's so easy to get tunnel vision on today being red. I don't want today to be red. I don't want to go into the weekend with a red day on Friday. It doesn't feel good. So, how can I turn that feeling around? It's by going from red to green. So, now there's a degree of desperation to go from red to green so I can feel good, so I can have a great weekend. But if I took a tremendous amount of risk and through just luck did flip from green to red or from red to green, would that even be something that is worthy of praise? That feels almost um, you know, you'd be lying to yourself to say that you had a good finish to the week because while you may be green, you lost composure, you mismanaged risk and you just got lucky in a in a sense. So while I could end So now I I sort of have a choice. I either end in the red but with my dignity or I keep trading. I throw the rules out the window and hopefully maybe recover to green or uh I go even deeper red. And if I go deeper red, I'll be furious with myself. And if I go green, then yeah, you could say all's well, it ends well. I finish green. But eventually that type of trading will catch up to you. And then you will have those days where on Friday you were down 6,700. you kept trading and you finished the day down, you know, 14 grand, maybe more, 20 grand, 30 grand, and then you're really having a bad weekend. So, it's just not worth it. It's not fun. I'm not happy. I'm not thrilled with the state of the market, but big picture, you know, big picture, the glass is is more than half full, right? This is year to date. So, that's our glass there. $555,000 approximately. I just gave back six grand off the top. The glass is quite full. Really don't need to be getting too stressed out.
So, so then let's dive deeper. Why is it that I actually feel that stressed out about this very small draw down? Um, in fact, it's not really the $6,000. It's because Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, nothing. nothing. Basically nothing. Thursday, basically nothing. And then Friday, I go in the red. That's the reason I'm upset is because it's been such a lousy week and then I finally finish with a loss. That's the real reason. The $6,000 isn't the isn't the issue here. It's the feeling of defeat. It's the feeling of I showed up every day this week and I got nothing for it. It's the disappointment that the market is slow. And it's okay to feel disappointed. It's okay to feel that way. The market is cyclical. There's hot cycles and there's cold cycles. And we're in a cold cycle right now. And it's hard to be patient. And it does weigh on you. It weighs on me. But cold cycles, cold stretches don't last forever. Hot hot stretches, hot streaks don't last forever. There's always ebb and flow. And so right now, yeah, it feels pretty like we're at the bottom of the the red, you know, the red streak, the bottom of the hole. And it feels uh sometimes the darkest before the dawn, as they say. Uh and so I hope that we're getting close to seeing that turning point where we start to see a little shimmer of light. And maybe we will early next week. Uh, you know, again, maybe not, but sooner or later we will. and things will pick back up and then next thing you know I'll be tra taking a trade on something like this and it'll go from 6 to 625, 650 up to 675 up to 7, breaks over 7, pull back at 715, next thing you know 750, 850, 950, 10 and you know all of a sudden I'm up 45 grand, 50 grand in a single day so you know and obviously one day like that would cover you know five days like today so even if I have losses like today every day next week. One really good trade wipes all that out. So, it's just a matter of doing an honest assessment of the strength of the market each day. Uh, being patient, being disciplined, cutting my losses when it's not working, which I could have done a little faster today, and managing my share size. You know, today I could have been with smaller. And you know what? That's actually funny uh now that I think about it because I set that max share size yesterday, but I didn't save it. That was the problem. I logged out and I didn't save. So, let's go ahead and actually save that 10,000 shares because that would have reduced my loss um by uh 67%. Instead of 30,000 shares, I would have had only 10,000. So, let's go ahead and put that uh 10,000 share restriction up for next week. And you know what? If it's going to take a couple days to make back $6,700 with 10,000 shares, that's fine. Still only $6,700. And if we get a day where all of a sudden I've hit my $5,000 daily goal, we've got something squeezing. Then I could take the training wheels off. But in the meantime, I'm going to keep them on. So, I'm going to save that layout. I'm going to close it. I'm going to log out here and I'm not going to look at charts for the rest of the day. because if I look at charts, I'm gonna get tempted to jump back in to try to recoup the loss because the emotion right now, even for me, is strong enough. The disappointment and it's only $6,000. So, there's clearly a logic disconnect that I'm experiencing right now because I'm down 1% and it doesn't actually matter. And yet, I'm having a hard time believing that. And so clearly that says emotion has begun to take control of my mind and I'm feeling more emotional right now. So if that's the case, that's a trigger. That's a that's a caution flag. Time to walk away.
All right, so that's it for me. As always, manage your risk, take it slow. Trading is risky. My results aren't typical. I'll be back at it bright and early Monday morning as always. And I'm going to hope that we have a better week next week than we had this week. All right, with that, I hope you have a great weekend and I'll see you on Monday.