Transcription
The Novo Nordisk stock, it is ultra popular, not only with investors, but also with you here on the channel. And therefore, we are looking at this stock again, and we want to ask ourselves the question, where is it going now with the stock, which has actually come under some pressure in recent days, and I will connect this a bit with know-how, because he here sees himself and shows himself in the end, how and where professional traders differ from many, many investors out there. So stay tuned, it will definitely be exciting. Yes, hello and welcome here on the Trader's Channel, my channel. My name is René Berteid. Nice that you are back and yes, if you don't want to miss anything in the future, then you are of course cordially invited to subscribe to the channel, especially to activate the bell, because then you will also be informed about future videos and you are of course allowed to comment on the whole thing. I would also be interested in your opinion on the Novo Nordisk stock. Uh and also on today's topic, because I want to discuss a point with you today that I also see again and again as a mentor. That is, where I stumble over it again and again, and it was basically a very simple story. You have chosen a stock that you put in your portfolio. Yes, and at that moment when you buy it, you are of course convinced accordingly, and then depending on how the stock develops further, a short-term speculation, as I call it now, becomes a long-term investment in the end, and that for one reason only, you don't dare to realize the losses. And that could have happened to one or the other here on the channel or in general with the Novo Nordisk stock. We discussed it recently, and one must say it very clearly. There are always reasons why one should hold a stock, even though it is quoted in the red, so to speak, in one's own portfolio, why it is not performing well. For Novo Nordisk, it's relatively clear. I mean, we have seen a massive downtrend in recent months. We have, price-wise, relatively cheap prices, relatively price-wise, yes, I would say good entry prices. In parallel, the stock is fundamentally valued relatively cheaply. We have a certain dividend stock. Lars also said that in his last video on the Novo Nordisk stock. We have also highlighted it on the channel again and again. So, there are enough reasons why the stock belongs or could belong in the portfolio. But in the end, one must also say one thing, I buy at a certain point in time because I think the stock will rise now, and not in three months or in 3 years, because then I would only complete my entry in three months or three years. In this respect, the excuse, well, it's a long-term investment, I find it always relatively difficult, because you like to talk yourself out of it, and that for the simple reason, you don't want to realize the losses. And that is exactly what has happened or could have been applied to the Novo Nordisk stock in recent days. I hope you didn't do it. I'll show you how I managed the whole thing or how I see the stock and of course how I would proceed. So let's start with the, yes, with the review of my last statements on the Novo Nordisk stock here on the channel or also on Stocke. Relatively simple, I looked at the stock in September and at the turnaround and said this is the opportunity for the price of the stock to take off again and perhaps even achieve a major turnaround in the medium and long term. Because even at that time, the stock was valued cheaply. fundamentally a good background with a certain sell-off character attached to it, which we saw here due to the numbers, and now the stock has picked up a bit again. That was a good chance. However, the alternative was also always mentioned by me, because one must think in all directions, and the alternative looked basically the same as the development here in April, May and June, namely that one only achieves a certain recovery movement and then drifts downwards in the end. And unfortunately, one must say, this development is not new in the stock. Because in the last phase, there was exactly this structure: sell, stabilization, new low. Of course, the stock was still more expensive at that time than at the time in summer or early summer, as at the time of the current movement. That means the pro-arguments are increasing. Nevertheless, and this is relatively clear, the price can always come back down significantly. And that is exactly what happened. Uh, based on the last analysis, from my side, the stock was able to gain another 15%. So, those who are very short-term oriented could have taken their profits. As a medium-term investor, but even as such an investor, you had several opportunities to evaluate the stock and react accordingly. We saw the first pullback here, and it was unfortunately already relatively strong. Then the second upward movement, which does not reach a new high. Second negative point for the stock. In parallel, the moving average continues to be slightly in the red. Third negative point, the medium-term range through the EMA 200 or SMA 200 is also still bearish. In parallel, we also do not manage to get above the last starting point, above the last, I call it now, volume area. That means, you see, more and more negative factors are being added one by one. Of course, these factors were not yet visible at the time of the bullish statement. We still had the chance. But gradually we also get new information again and again. And very importantly, as a trader and investor, you simply have to process this information, exactly as it appears and as it is seen. Many then gladly fall into the motto: "I think, I wish, I believe." That's okay, but it's often also, or perhaps not even that often. It even happens often that you are right with it. But when you are wrong, it becomes incredibly expensive. And, I can also tell you from experience, most traders ruin their accounts not in many, many losing trades, but in a few losing trades, which are all the more dramatic. And therefore, one does not want to be there when the signs gradually continue to say, okay, the chance for a bottom formation was there, but we are not using it. And then the motto is relatively simple. A very simple sentence: limit losses. Because one thing is very important, and many market participants forget this, you can always re-enter at any time. If you have limited your losses, if you are out, you have an objective view of the stock and can re-enter accordingly. And that is exactly what would be and is my approach with Novo Nordisk, as with all other underlying assets that I trade, when I have my entry, when I see that the market is not breaking through here, and we could see that well, for example, by having a certain support zone here, and that is then broken through by the closing price, then I have a minimal loss, can exit for now, and at the same time plan that if the stock does take off again, I plan, for example, my re-entry on the long side, so that I am there if the bulls push again. That did not actually happen here. I have, so to speak, spared myself a very, very large drawdown down to almost a new annual low, and can now calmly observe the price development. So perhaps a small credo in between, a small conclusion in between from the mentoring level. Limiting losses and letting profits run is a very, very sensible guiding principle. If you get reasons in the market, in the price development, on a fundamental level, one by one, to sell the stock again, to take it out of the portfolio, then it is a good idea to do so. You can, and we can, re-enter at any time. From what I call a short-term or even a speculation, a long-term investment, just because you want to avoid the loss now. Unfortunately, that works very, very often, but it becomes extremely expensive in the end. Therefore, from my experience, it is simply better to limit losses, to exit, to end the pain, and then to readjust. And that also applies to the Novo Nordisk stock, and I'll be honest, as a trader, I'm hardly interested in what I said yesterday in the analysis or whatever, because if new information emerges, then it is my duty as a trader and also as an analyst to incorporate it accordingly. Period. So, back to the screen. That's a small, a small framework. Now, of course, the big question is, how do I continue to see the stock? All the arguments that I have already made here, why we might buy, fundamentally good valuations, product is okay and so on and so forth, they are still valid. Only on the technical level, I currently see no really good starting point to act here. That means for me now, to venture a new investment, it would not be wrong if the stock can sustainably establish itself above this price range around €45.50, initiate a breakout, and then with momentum initially move towards €53. If that is the case, I would venture a re-entry in a, if you will, pro-cyclical framework. In a counter-cyclical framework, I would not trade a new low directly long. I am reluctant to catch a falling knife. Something like this can also happen here, that we are going down for a few days in free fall. I don't want to have entered long somewhere up here. That makes little sense to me. Therefore, in a counter-cyclical framework, if I see such a formation at or near the bottom, i.e., a false breakout, a quick recapture of the old lows, and then at least a small bottom formation. That would also be an ideal point for me to venture a long speculation again. Initially with targets in the direction of €45.50. Later then also beyond this price range towards €53. And with that, I have relatively simply, relatively easily defined two possible scenarios for myself. The first, if we stabilize earlier, I have a plan for that, which then looks like this, whereby I would tend to trade the breakout. And if new annual lows occur, that would be the alternative. If neither of these two scenarios occurs, then I simply wait. And that is also one of the most important prerequisites for successful investment. You have to be able to wait for your signals. So, let me summarize the situation in the Novo Nordisk stock from a technical or fundamental perspective. The stock is fundamentally well valued. However, the market is currently having problems wanting to buy the stock long-term. There are certain attempts at bottom formation, but they have all failed so far, and the most recent attempt also had its problems. The risk is at least currently present that we will see new annual lows again. If there is a false breakout there, then I see that as a very, very good long opportunity to venture a speculation on the long side again. In parallel, if we sustainably overcome the price range around €45.50, so that is quoted here in Euros €45.50, that would also be another possibility. Targets in both larger cases, or in both cases for a turnaround around €53. But again, very clearly, I will take you back to the screen to really end a very big bottom and the big bear market. To end it, at least the €54 and the SMA 200 must be overcome. This has not succeeded even once in recent months. That means, whoever is now pushing these ideas in the stock, whoever is looking at them and wants to implement them, in my opinion, has above all a relatively simple strategy, namely counter-cyclical bottom fishing. We are not yet in a bull market here, but we are trying to catch a bottom. And one, yes, one thing that one must definitely prepare for with this type of trading and game is that one needs several attempts for such a bottom. What is important here, and I hope I have emphasized this now, letting profits run and limiting losses is very, very important. Especially when working and trading counter-cyclically. So much for my opinion on Novo Nordisk in combination with a bit of know-how on how to do bottom fishing, what makes sense and what doesn't, and how I currently see the stock. You can of course write me in the comments below what you think of it, whether you are still trying or whether you are now saying, I'm slowly fed up, so many attempts have failed. I'm looking forward to your comments. I'll keep my fingers crossed, wish you good luck, and see you in the next video.