Transcription
Bitcoin has made a new ATH, surpassing $124,545, but we haven't yet set our records on the CME. We will discuss that as well. We will do an analysis of Ethereum, which is approaching it but is still consolidating below resistance, and we will quickly touch upon the US government shutdown to see which news will be impacted this week.
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So, to come back here on BTC, we made a new ATH, so a new record on the spot market and the Perp market, but we haven't made an ATH on the CME yet. Now, many of you are telling me, "I don't have the same chart as you on the CME." That's normal because at the bottom right, you need to check B-ADJ, which simply allows you to have adjusted contracts. So, it's the average of all contracts, roughly speaking, on the CME, and that's why the ATH is here at $126,650. It hasn't been made on the CME yet. So, there's a chance today that the price could try to reach this ATH on the CME, and consequently, on the spot market, we could have an equivalent also around $126,000. So, theoretically, to re-break the weekend's high.
Now, we need to be a little careful because we can see that on Hyperliquid's side, the funding rate is starting to increase significantly. We went up to 0.04 this weekend, and now we are at 0.03. We had funding rates that were completely neutral and flat throughout this rise, and now they are starting to increase. This means that people are starting to take risks on derivatives as the ATH approaches, so we need to be careful. We don't want too many buyers on derivatives to get caught near the ATH as well.
What needs to be understood is that we are approaching extremely important resistances, notably the weekly order block. We have just hunted stops, I remind you. We don't just want to see a stop hunt and a price reversal. What we want is the formation of a breaker block that could really allow for a continuation on BTC and reach continuation targets like $135,000, $137,000, and why not the previous extension targets up to $145,000. Well, we'll see how high the price can go, how high the price can go, pardon. But we really shouldn't turn back here either. I remind you that there is the trendline from the last two previous cycles that we have come back to touch, I think almost. Nothing was missing to touch this trendline at $126,600. This would also allow for an ATH on the CME. We must not be rejected here because if we are rejected here, there's a chance that it could mark the top of this rebound, and we could retrace this impulse upwards, or even take the stops from the support that were not triggered here below $107,000. We can see that the support was not liquidated just there. The market consolidated against this support, and therefore, there are a lot of stops waiting below $107,000. That's why we need to accelerate and break through.
Now, on Ethereum's side, we are precisely at the last resistance levels at the last fair value gaps. We see that we are working on the last FVG zone. This is the 5th day that we have been working against this last Fair Value Gap. If we have a small dip, we will come back to work on the FVG as well, starting from around $4,420, to try to continue. Ethereum's objective is also to try to make a new record above $4,957, as long as its weekly fair value gap is maintained, which has been done. So, theoretically, it's about continuing upwards. For that, Bitcoin would need not to be rejected in the $126,000-$127,000 zone that we just identified. So, we need to break this daily FVG to purge $4,643 and then theoretically try to aim a little higher afterwards, at $4,768 and $4,957. For now, there are no bearish signals, neither on Bitcoin nor on Ethereum. There was a small rejection, nothing too serious. The dynamic remains, and we should not exclude liquidity grabs. Here, you see, we are building support. There are quite a few stops accumulating.
We will also look at the funding rates. Is there abuse like on Bitcoin? Because it's starting to get a bit frothy on BTC on Hyperliquid. Here on ETH, the funding rates are starting to increase slightly, but it's nothing extraordinary for now, so it's fine. And on BBIT and Binance, funding rates are still almost negative or below neutral. So, there isn't necessarily a lot of FOMO here for the moment. It's mainly on Bitcoin, on Hyperliquid, where FOMO is starting a bit. That's why we need to break the resistance and not stay here too long, accumulating buyers on derivatives.
On the news front, this week, we will have, well, the speech of the ECB president. Well, we don't care about all that. The most important thing, of course, is the FOMC meeting minutes. To see a little bit what will be said. Well, nothing extraordinary normally. Thursday. Likewise, we don't know if there will be unemployment rate data or not, from what I understand. And Friday, likewise, we don't know if we will have the NFP and no, sorry, unemployment claims on Thursday, we don't know if we will have them. From what I understand, we should have them. However, on Friday, we don't know if, as long as the government is shut down, we will have the unemployment rate and NFP figures. So, these are important data. Now, well, it will eventually happen one day. The government won't stay shut down for ages either. But that's why a lot of news is off, and we need this news to know a little bit how the economy is evolving, how monetary policy will evolve, and so on and so forth. So, that could start to become a problem. I will review the macro situation this week, but we are starting to see some strange things. That is to say, we have a dollar that is rising, indices that are rising, gold that is rising, and one of the three is definitely lying. We will have to observe because it's not possible, it's rare that everything rises, that risk assets rise, that risk-off assets rise, and so here we have a somewhat unprecedented situation to have so much bullish push on so many assets, and therefore, at some point, one of them will tell us the truth. Is it the indices? Is it gold? So, we will have to observe that. But in any case, for now, in my opinion, we are heading towards another new ATH today. So, surpassing the record that was set this weekend to go and offer the ATH on the CME, and then we will have to see if the price turns around or not. That's really the important thing.
On the ETF side, we've already talked about it, but I'll remind you, on Friday, almost $1 billion in inflows, which is positive. We need inflows. This week, we really need bullish aggression on the ETFs to show that there is demand and finally break this resistance. So, when I talk about resistance, I'm talking about the trendline from the last two cycles. And on Ethereum's side, likewise, we had inflows. Now, it's less than on Bitcoin's side, but there were still inflows. Plus $233 million, which is quite good. We'll see if this can last this week as well.
I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the thumbs up, subscribe, and leave a little comment. Thanks to those who play along. Also, I remind you in the description box, you have many links that give you access to a lot of free content, but also access to my school. It's the first link in the pinned comment. If you want to train with me, have access to the private brief that I do with students every day from Monday to Friday, it's right here. Join my trading school. It's the only paid subscription I offer. €49 per month, it's commitment-free. You have even cheaper offers with the 3, 6, and 12-month offers. You also have access to the school's training, which is exclusive to the school. It cannot be found anywhere else except for school members. 19 hours of video lessons, 8 modules that train you from A to Z. You have the full description of the school on this little page right here. Also, testimonials from members. You are welcome. I'll stop here. We'll meet again tomorrow for another one. See you tomorrow.