Transcription
The fundamental problem here is that Trump and Vance are saying that they think that both sides are going to turn over a new leaf. Uh, and in other words, in the case of Iran, that 47 years of religious fanaticism is about to disappear. But if it doesn't, then then he has threats uh of resumed military activity, which the Iranians know very well Trump will not do before the November elections. The US vice president JD Vance has been speaking in Switzerland after peace negotiations between Iran and the US. He announced that Iran had agreed to let nuclear inspectors back into the country from as early as this week.
>> Right now, the conflict is in a ceasefire, and our certainly our hope is that we get to the final deal and a permanent settlement. But right now, I think we made great progress, and we should all celebrate that. In terms of when the nuclear inspectors are going to start, it's funny. We were trying to call some of the inspectors last night around 2 in the morning. As you can expect, not many people were answering their phone at 2 in the morning. I expect that will happen at the minimum this week, but we we think even some of those conversations with the inspectors and with the IAEA could happen as soon as today, but um, I I haven't checked in with our team since we made that 2 a.m. phone call to some of those inspectors.
>> JD Vance there. Now, Ambassador John Bolton was a national security adviser in Donald Trump's first term. Welcome to you, Ambassador.
>> Glad to be with you.
>> Always keen to get your views on the Middle East and Iran, but forgive me if I focus on British politics at the moment, which is so consuming uh the the British agenda and is appearing at top of bulletins and front pages around the world. Now, I asked you, you'll remember perhaps back in May when Kama was under heavy pressure for your judgment, and you said this:
>> It's not surprising in a parliamentary system that the prime minister can come under attack. I would have thought that Starmer was about to be ousted, given everything that had happened and the troubles that the government was having, and we we'll see. It doesn't lead to a particular outcome at this point that I can discern anyway, but at some point becomes inevitable that the government just simply can't function. And with the results in your local elections, I think the repudiation of labors is historically unprecedented. Do they really want to go on in the under current leadership? I would have thought, even from days going back into the Mandlesson issue with Jeffrey Epstein, that the government was a dead man walking. It's still walking. I guess maybe by the time we're finished, it won't be.
>> Well, Ambassador, you were right about that. Any any counsel for the likely next Prime Minister Andy Burnham? Ambassador John Bolson, do we still have you with us?
>> Give us a second. I think we got a slight techical issue, just a small one on the line there to John Bolton, the former national security adviser to Donald Trump, since, of course, not especially in President Trump's good books. Very much the the opposite. He's now back with us on the line. Ambassador, we now think have reestablished the line. So, do you have any advice for Andy Burnham that might be useful and helpful?
Well, I think that technical problem may have been Kier Starmer's revenge, but uh, look, he uh, Burnham steps into a very difficult situation internationally. Uh, the uh, the the question of Iran and and the Gulf of the Persian Gulf and the Straight of Hormuz are up in the air. Ukraine's up in the air. A lot of things up in the air economically. Uh, the political situation in in the UK seems to me to be uh, this is a new opportunity for labor. Uh, they've got a new leader. They have a huge majority in parliament. But where do the people really stand now? I don't I don't think their basic problem is resolved. I think uh, the the the the new prime minister will simply inherit the problems that were too much for Star to solve.
>> All right. I'm going to move on, but thank you for for those thoughts. So, JD Ratz then in in Switzerland talking about Iran ready to admit inspectors on the nuclear program. First thoughts on that?
Well, I think I think the uh idea that the IAEA inspectors will come back doesn't change that much fundamentally. IAEA inspectors have been in and out of Iran for decades. Uh, and they've never been able to penetrate the military bases where the critical weaponization work on uh the nuclear weapons program is going on. New new facilities have come into being that were never disclosed to the IAEA, so-called pickaxe mountain site. Uh, near Natans is is a good example of that. Uh, so it's a relatively easy concession for Iran to make, uh, but it doesn't signify any any significant change in their behavior looking over a broad period of time.
>> Right. Now, the talks in Lucern, they have until now, they've been stuttering and and restarting that, and not for the not for the first time, maybe not for the last time, but Churchill, he famously said, didn't he, 'jaw jaw is better than war.' Is there any comfort in that principle?
Well, I don't think so. Dealing with a regime like this, uh, ultimately Churchill knew what what had to be done. And unfortunately, while we may have been on the way to doing it, in this case, we stopped before we finished. You know, right now, the American blockade of Iranian oil shipments has ended. Ships with Iranian oil are leaving the Gulf. Uh, the US has issued a 60-day waiver of its sanctions, just an incredible move that allows Iran to sell to whomever will buy. In the meantime, ships from the Gulf Arab countries uh are still uh basically at at rest waiting for clarity and exactly what the status of the strait is. A few ships have come out, but it's Iran that's benefiting right now. Th this is fairly typical of how Iran negotiates. Uh, I think we've fallen into a trap here. You know, the negotiations in Switzerland were primarily, not exclusively, but primarily on Lebanon. Uh, now finally we get working groups on the nuclear issue. This is all part of Iran's playbook.
>> So, to use one of uh President Trump's favorite favorite phrases, you consider that the United States is being played by Iran, right?
Right? Another one of his favorite phrases is, 'they're tap tap tapping us along.' That's exactly what they're doing. Uh, they've set up groups to talk about the possibility of negotiations on technical issues. Great. Let's see in 60 days just how far they've gotten. The fundamental problem here is that Trump and Vance are saying that they think that both sides are going to turn over a new leaf. Uh, and in other words, in the case of Iran, that 47 years of religious fanaticism is about to disappear. Well, if it doesn't, then then he has threats uh of resumed military activity, which the Iranians know very well Trump will not do before the November elections.
>> Right. And one of the reasons the the talks in recent days faulted was because of the, you know, the new hostilities, or should I say, the continuing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Is there any way that situation is solvable?
Yeah, there there's a very easy way to solve it. Iran stops funding, arming, training and giving intelligence to Hezbollah. Hezbollah complies with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which I had the uh dubious distinction of helping to negotiate for the United States. Hezbollah gives up its weapons and becomes another political party uh in Lebanon. That that's what we tried to do in 2006. You can see how well that succeeded. But it's the same answer. As long as Iran wants an armed terrorist group like Hezbollah in Lebanon, there will be such a group. When Iran decides it doesn't, uh, the odds are the group will simply disappear. Iran is going to support its terrorist proxies with the revenue of the oil. Uh, it's it's selling as as their ships exit the straight of Hormuz.
>> Okay. I just want to shift focus for a moment while you are you are here. This spat between President Trump and the Italian leader Georgia Maloney, it's now become a deep rift. It's become high drama over of all things: President Trump saying she'd begged him for a selfie, which sounds a bit like teenagers falling out, but Italian politicians across the spectrum are outraged. What do you make of it, Ambassador?
Well, I think this is just typical of Trump. He thinks only of himself. He he is as as they say the goat the greatest of all time in everything. I guess he wasn't finished attacking the pope. He decided to go after the government of Italy. And uh, you know, we we are in a in a, as you say, in a spat, utterly unnecessary, once again contrary to American national interest, all because of Donald Trump's ego.
>> All right, Ambassador John Bolton in Donald Trump first time. Grateful for having you with us.