Transcription
Wanted to get a quick video out here as we go into the weekend. Sorry for no facecam today. I'm busy.
Uh but basically, I just want to say that I think things look pretty decent. Um to be honest with you, like I really like how stocks are closing up here. Um I think that there's a pretty good chance that that might have been the dip. I can't say 100% sure yet, but this looks like a pretty good turnaround here to just kind of continue higher and get that move towards 7,000.
I'm not opposed to the idea of one more swipe down early next week or if things get really ugly a move down below here early next week. Uh but for now, this is looking pretty promising. Uh I think this is lower odds now, but if we come down here, that's still an opportunity. I did not long this backside test. My plan was to either long here or on a break and hold above there. Neither of those has happened yet. So, no trade for me on the US 500 yet. But again, this looks like we're indeed ready to gear up here for our next leg higher. I think that this ends up trading above 7,000 as I've said a bunch of times now. So, let's wait and see. I do think we're close early next week. Um, to find out where that low is.
Um, I think if you go down to the dollar, we got a nice little bounce here from this area that I had mapped out a little while ago. Ultimately, I still think this hopefully trades lower, right? Maybe it runs above these highs and then trades lower. But the goal here is for this to stay below the old range low and this resistance. So, even if it comes back up here briefly, we want this thing to get smacked back down.
Um, the NASDAQ basically gave the setup that I was talking about on uh ES. We had the weekly SFP. You go down to the 12-hour chart. Here's the breaker that caused the SFP. So, we tagged it and we're now pushing up. Whereas the S&P 500 front ran that zone, right? So, NASDAQ made a lower low. S&P, you know, not quite as low as the NASDAQ here, but that's okay.
Uh, what else do I want to talk about here really quickly? Um, yeah, I was I had my wires crossed on this, sorry, yesterday, guys. Um, the easiest way to explain the yen carry trade, right, I said is just to look at this. It's just yen strength. And I had this backwards. I had my wires crossed. The yen, right, is the denominator here, right? So, if we have USD JPY, think of this like FBTC, right? So, you have ETH BTC. Okay? If ETH BTC is going down, what does that generally mean? It usually means that ETH is stronger, right, than Bitcoin. So if this is going down right that usually means that Japanese yen is stronger than the US dollar. So Japanese yen strength would mean this trades lower. That would be a sign of the end carry trade. We can look at a lot of other stuff here. Like if you look at CAD JPY like a lot of these coins coins excuse me a lot of these these um a lot of these charts look strong. They don't look like um the yen is about to go crazy even though um we've just seen them raise 75 basis points. They went from zero to 0.75 basis points, highest in decades, but this is now out. We know that this has happened. We have not seen it reflected in the yen yet. It still can happen. It hasn't been reflected in the VIX yet either. The VIX looks nothing like uh the yen carry trade is blowing up, right? This is kind of your volatility uh indicator, right? So, when do we have big V? Well, COVID, right? Um 2008, obviously, big V, right? The last YN carry trade unwind, I think, was here in 2019, if I recall correctly. Regardless, we don't need to worry about that. Just want to correct my mistake.
Ultimately, I don't have any low time frame trades. Nothing got triggered, right? Uh I think here, here, and here are the highest probability areas, right? to the range low at 80 or above the range high at 938 around the yearly open. That's where you want to look for setups. Uh we're right at the mid-range right now. We did sweep out this low and we're just kind of hammering away at the mid-range here. It keeps rejecting, but it's just very choppy and we have maximum fear on the timeline. People are impatient. People are fearful. I've seen a thousand different threads about why it's over. I've seen a dozen different threads about why it's just getting started. We see yen carry trade, the M2 money supply. People are just chatting out of their ass. And that's usually what is very common with this type of price action, which is just sideways.
At the end of the day, if we're able to get a close above this trend line here, right, and above the yearly open at this intersection, to me, this becomes a very bullish low. Like, it's a bullish setup. It's looking like a bullish setup already. The similarities here cannot be ignored. This looks like we're forming a medium-term bottom. Now, the question remains, do we run the low and then go up, or do we just go up from here? Obviously, not running the low and just putting in higher low and then a higher high is a lot more bullish in my opinion than running the low. I think that would maybe increase the odds for a move towards all-time high. Either way, the way this looks, the way sentiment is lining up and the fact that stocks I think are gearing up for another leg higher, even if they dip a little first, um, this looks to me like it's gearing up for a little another leg higher. Even if it has to run this low first, I feel very confident in at least an underside test of 100. But ultimately, I think we can get a pretty good shot at a test of 105 to 110. And then the question is, is it is it this, right? Obviously, it could run the low first, but is it this or is it, you know, this? Either way, I still feel confident in one of those two scenarios. Uh, so I'm not selling my spot yet. I'm going to I'm going to continue to hold uh and wait and see. But I think we're getting very close. I think by the early next week, we're going to know whether or not we're breaking out of this trend line or we're going to run the 80K low. I think if we're able to break above here and get above the yearly open, I think really really high odds that that low is in until at least a test of, you know, well above 100K and then maybe it's [ __ ] over. I don't know. But if we're able to get above here early next week, I think that's when you can just start saying, "Okay, I'm going to long stop below here, target here." Uh, and low time frame trades just are bullish, right? because we're still consolidating technically, but you'll have a clear bullish bias on the higher time frames, meaning all your low time frame bullish setups should have a better opportunity of working out.
Um, Ethereum, same kind of vibe, right? Like we are at this trend line. We broke above it. We're back below. I thought we might run this low. We came very close. We took out the prior days low. Pushing back up here. Same thing, right? like we're able to get above here, hold these lows, these higher lows above the yearly open, I think good chance we go to like 4,000. Okay, so that's all I got. I'm feeling confident uh and pretty optimistic for the future. Let's see how the start of next week opens up with stocks. And if this thing is ready to just push one leg higher, I think we're off to the races. If it's got a little bit lower it needs to go, uh that might mean Bitcoin's going to visit the low 80ks one more time. Either way, we're chilling. plans remain the same. That's all I got, guys. I'll talk to you soon. Have a great weekend. As always, if you want to support your boy, all my bullshit's in the description. Use the website tradermain.com. My ref links are there. You want to join the haven, follow my trades, learn from me, learn from LMA, CBS, all the other guys, they post all their trades in there. And if you want to use breakout code Maine, we'll give you a discount. Talk to you later.