Transcription
What happens when JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs introduce $1.8 trillion to a new market that is potentially short selling private equities? Well guys, today we need to talk about the impacts of all of this as we now see announcements coming over the last 24 hours and everything happens at key support. So, what's happening as bonds start to show some signs of concerns with big spikes in yields over the last 24 hours and of course huge moves in some safe havens such as gold moving down to one of Wall Street's favorite levels, mean reversion.
Well, as though some of these things have been expected, the real concern could lie in the big technology stocks. Because of course if they lose some of the key levels then we may see what we call a negative gamma event and a potential waterfall in the markets. It's triple witching event. There's a lot going on in options and we need to talk about it all together. So join us as we talk about stocks, commodities and cryptos in one of the biggest daily shows on the planet thanks to you guys. See you soon.
Well, welcome back everybody to the daily show where we talk about everything from the latest macro to what Wall Street flows have been telling us and of course the key levels that we're watching. If it's your first time here, then remember to subscribe and smash that bell icon if you love markets like we do. And of course, if you have been watching for a while, why not click that sneaky hype button down below as I have become aware of it recently and it could help us out on the channel. Thank you so much, guys, as always.
So, let's kick things off here with sentiment. We'll talk about that. Then, we'll talk about the new $1.8 trillion market that might have just been opened up to short sellers from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. And then, of course, we'll talk about all of the data and the options flows. It's triple witching, which means there's tons of activity over the next 24 hours and a lot of money at stake.
So, let's kick things off here with the CNN fear and greed index. Now, we've looked at this many times over the last couple of years, and back in 2025, I kind of said, "Yeah, I don't really think it works anymore." Partly because of the way it's made up, and we saw a lot of times it would go to extreme fear very quickly without necessarily really showing the signs of significant concern. Now, could it be coming back into phase? Well, there are some signs that that's true because of course bonds recently have actually been showing some sign signs of concerns and this does track some things to do with bonds. But we are in an extreme fear level of 17.
As always though, let's break it down to a little bit further in terms of when it comes to the data and the market stats here over on X always has some great reports and this one is for the daily sentiment index overall. When we tend to see different sentiment reads, not just the CNN one, but different sentiment reads fall below certain levels, that often means there's fear in the street. And of course, everybody in investing and trading, I'm sure you are aware of the Warren Buffett quote, which was obviously be greedy when others are fearful. But is this time to actually be greedy? We're down a little bit in what we would call a standard correction in the S&P. And we're entering into an area of what we would call technical support. So, this zone is one of those ones that many traders and investors are going to be paying attention to, and we'll talk about more of why that is when we look at crossorrelation later on today's video.
But, let's kick things off with understanding a little bit about these sentiment reports. There's many different ways to get them. And one of them is the Aouble Bull Bear sentiment report, which is put out every week. And what this shows is that what investors are really feeling about the markets. And you can see here that the bears have been on the rise recently going back up above the kind of normal averages and getting past that kind of 45 to 50 level. Now when this happens, these are the actual stats since 1988 and Blue Curtic Market Insights over on X actually went through and tracked them all to what happens over the next couple of days into the next couple of months. And the stats are generally actually more to the bullish side than the negative side. But you can see here that it's kind of more that 65 to 70%. So, is this enough to go off? Well, 65 to 70% is not bad, but we probably want to be paying attention to some other stuff as well. So, it's pretty clear that sentiment is pretty negative and that people are very, very bearish on this market, and that comes up in options flow soon.
But, let's talk about a market that just got opened up. $1.8 trillion of private credit markets according to the latest data here from Bloomberg. And you can see investing.com here said that Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are now offering hedge funds clients a way to bet against that private equity credit market. Now, as we're all aware back in 2020 and 2021, which seems like an eon ago, these were the rage. Everybody wanted to be in private credit and of course companies that didn't make any money that were going absolutely epic were of course the rage back then. But that's kind of changed in recent times. And this obviously opens up the door of do they allow this because it's they think it's okay and they think it's actually a fine market and they're just allowing people to go against it or is there something bigger going on here? Either way, this is a huge market that's being opened up and I think it'll be an evolving story of 2026.
Now let's look at why it might be a little bit concerning. One of these reasons is this great chart here from Grant Hawkage over on X. Grant's a great guy, Australian guy as well as me. So, um quite a few Australian fintech kind of guys and you guys obviously uh do like to follow us. So, if you want to give him a follow, big shout out to Grant. But you can see here that what he's done is he's traded or actually tracked the overall C bond yields over time. This is Moody's uh BA C bond yields. And what you'll notice is that when we're above, that is the C bond yields are starting to expand, we often see poor gains from the S&P. And this is because when the bonds markets start flinching, that often means a period of either consolidation or a period where markets need to readjust for risk.
These are great highlights here. And we've actually been able to see this broken down a little bit more from Blue Curtic over again using Grant's data, I believe. And this basically shows us that when this happens, you can see that when increasing yield spreads come through and you can actually look at this, you actually get even worse when it comes to annualized returns. It only happens 42% of the time. So most of the points here, the markets are obviously in bullish decreasing credit spreads, but it is something that we want to be paying attention to. And it's like anything, if you see it happen in a massive cluster, then it can mean that volatility is in the market and we go into a market that's all about stock selection, all about being flexible, and of course, it does tend to help traders more than it does investors because, of course, it creates that volatility in markets.
Now, this is a bit of a controversial chart at the moment going around. This one here is from the Bogart, T Hi Er theory, maybe. Um, and it's BGE I think it has actually over on X. And you've probably seen this by now. Now, there's been a community note put on it which says that uh oil moving above the 50% thresh hold in 2022 never triggered a US recession. Now, we mentioned this in the previous video and it's not 100% read. Uh, but what it is is it's a sign of a possible period of extreme weakness coming into markets. And the reason we say that is because if we track this then it would look something like this. And then of course recently it spiked back up and it would have gone through this threshold again. Now one of the reasons why that's important is because when oil spikes this much it creates extreme pressure on already existing issues in markets and we've already started to see private equities in some ways some of the private equity funds obviously Black Rockck Morgan Stanley I believe a few others starting to actually show signs of some weakness because of illiquidity. And why is that ili liquidity come through? Well, we've seen redemptions. On one hand, people, investors may have said, "I want about 8 to 10% of my money out of the market." And on the other hand, they're being told, "Oh, we can only offer you four to 5% of that." And that tends to happen when you're seeing some distress in markets.
So, it means we also need to look at what the Federal Reserve is doing this year. And specifically, we'll be taking a look at one particular thing, which will be the repo markets as well. What is the Fed doing in the emergency liquidity markets for banks? are they going to get more active? We've seen a bit of that over the last 3 months and this is something we also had happen leading into the pandemic period. So, uh whether it was the pandemic or something else, markets were already starting to struggle actually well before more like that September October period of 2019 before uh everything came to light and we saw that massive crash.
So, what other signs do we have for the potential here of 6600 to 6,500 area being support? Well, one of those is that when everyone gets fearful on the street, they tend to buy puts. And you can see here the latest put call equity reading here from the market stats over on X actually shows that 0.9 has been reached again. And this is often where you get sometimes relief rallies. Now, not always. You can see here the market continued to fall at least initially during that period of liberation day. But often times when we see this, it can be a supportive action in the markets. And it suggests that there's a massive put wall that's starting to appear. And let me tell you, it's a big one. And it's at 6600. And we'll look at it soon.
S&P 500 performance during major global oil supply disruptions. Remember, the longer this goes on for, the more that we have a chance of actually seeing further pullbacks in markets. And one of the things we look at is we look at crude price into the future. Not just crude price right now, which is what most retail traders look at. we need to be thinking what's crude price doing into the future and that's why we're seeing kind of oil kind of going up and down all around at the moment yet we're still seeing XLE and other types of uh oil stocks going up because the futures contracts that is the ones that are in September of this year December of this year and even next year they're actually continuing to expand and go up because there's this expectation that this is going to go on for longer. Now where do we tend to see bottoms of markets I think it's worth noting that although we have a couple of data points here around 60 to 100 days after all of this type of stuff begins often is where markets bottom off and although we don't know that of course it's something to keep in the back of our mind when we're considering all of these things.
Now do we actually have a quad witching or triple witching? I believe it's a triple witching technically but beside the point the main thing is is that every quarter we have a massive options expiration and that is of course this Friday so in the next 24 hours. Now why is it important? Well, it tends to give us very coin flippy style days. You can see here from Blue Curtics data, it's basically a 50/50 in terms of what goes on and it can be supported by large options activity at certain levels. So, we'll look at that soon, but I want to talk a little bit here about the market because it is a very different market to what we've seen over the last couple of years. Usually, it's just been tech tech. And you can see here based on Grand Hawk's charts here that it has really just been about energy recently. utilities and most other markets have actually been quite far underneath their 50-day specifically financials and specifically consumer discretionary and I think this is the warning sign that many people are looking for the canary if you say what you will about it because these two markets are not just weak they're weak versus their 200 daily and it shows that people are starting to feel the pinch and remember the market kind of thinks about 12 to 18 months into the future so the market is already pricing in that people are going to be struggling and the American consumer could be weakening.
So, we'll look at how to track that on a chart. Many of your longtime viewers, many of you guys will already know how I track it, but we will check that out because we do need to be paying a lot of attention to whether discretionary starts to pick up. And remember, it's not our opinion that matters. It's do we see it in the flows. This channel is all about those flows.
Speaking of flows, we've seen some pretty large trades come in on gold. Obviously, gold has crashed back down to mean reversion, which we'll look at later on the charts. But one of the big things here is that we've seen some large trades near the peak and near those kind of recoveries. The number one largest trade ever for IAU, a big ETF in gold, has come through a little while ago and we've seen it since then drop. For gold to be supported, generally I would be looking at large darkpool activity starting to come back in and of course structure to be shown. And I think one of the things that we say on this channel a lot is patience, react, don't predict. And the reason we say that is because what we're looking for is we're looking for market structure and flows to come back into the markets before we're really making too much of a prediction. If you make predictions on buy the dips, sometimes it keeps dipping.
This one here from volumeleaders.com. All right, another couple of big ones coming through. Saw a monster trade just recently in the iShares Core S&P Growth ETF. Now, not the biggest ETF in the world, but the number one largest trade. You do usually want to be paying some attention to that. We've seen the number one, the number, what is that? Five, the number three. Often they've been at peaks of markets and we've seen kind of a little bit of a correction from those periods. Notably, one happened here before 2020, which I find very disturbing. And then another one happened before 2022 crash, which is kind of disturbing. Then one happened before the liberation day fall and now we've seen two into this sell-off. Wow. I mean that is some weird happenings. I tell you what, that is some weird weird ones. How has it always been this particular code? Maybe we need to investigate that on our weekend video. So, we'll definitely get back onto this one. Uh but yeah, that is some strange stuff going through.
Now, is it all bad? Well, yes and no. There are of course always opportunities in these markets. And I always say and one of the things we talk about here at FX Evolution is abundance mindset. So cumulative net flows here from Duality Research at Duality Research. We do retweet them a lot over on our X channel as well if you want to follow links in the description. Basically, we've seen Bitcoin ETF flows go up. We've also seen the rolling 30-day Bitcoin ETF flows turn positive for the first time in a while. And that shows that maybe we've got what we call an accumulation base starting to appear. So this is the type of thing that often big players on Wall Street start to look for. We usually get some large transactions coming through and we start to see flows form a base. So it's a very interesting time here for Bitcoin and again it's happening while everybody else is freaking out about other markets and just goes to show that sometimes beaten down markets do get inflows during times of concern because they have to get out of those ones that are maybe a little bit overpriced. Interesting time for Bitcoin. We'll look at the chart soon.
Let's move over to the one that matters at the moment though guys. When volatility strikes, we want to go back to basics. US dollar as many times the we look talk about as a hedge and the S&P 500 as it's the most important chart in the world many times over. Now, why is this so important? Well, we want to be checking out the key levels of support. So, that is of course the 50 weekly moving average and 6600. We want to look at the options levels. We want to look at the advanced decline line which is obviously going down at this stage. and we want to break it down into smaller time frames as well. So, I've taken and got the new options high low levels for the next 24 hours so you guys can see them coming in. And you'll note that we have one that's close to that 6500 and one that's close to, you guessed it, the downward trend line that we've been kind of tracking on the way down. And I think it's important to note that on small time frames, we have a series of lower highs and lower lows currently coming through markets. So really, the smaller time frames are still negative. There are some cases to say that on a really small time frame, maybe a break of 6645 might be look seen as bullish by some people out there. Uh but it is also the anchored VWAP of the current high to the low. So you can kind of see why it's finding resistance. And as we zoom in, you're going to get a bit of a case here of look, the markets are still looking relatively weak until proven otherwise.
Now, why is 6600 such a big key? Well, this is all expirations for the S&P and I don't think it's even close when you have a look at this. 6600 and 6,500 have a absolute ton of puts on them. And this is exactly the kind of level you can see here uh when it comes to charts that you want to be starting to pay attention to because you know, is this an important level? Yeah, it's clearly an important level. If we drop 6665, it could create what we call a waterfall or negative gamma event. And uh that is good if you're a bear and bad if you're a bull because basically we would be dropping key levels of support. We would be changing trends technically on things like the weekly time frame. Something we just haven't seen on the S&P for a very long time and it's why this level is so important. Let's have a look at the next 24 hours. The next 24 hours seems to be which is of course the triple witching seems to be around 6600. So a lot of the time market uh participants would expect the market to hold that level uh kind of eliminating needing to pay those contracts out. You can see it's actually around 66 66610 that seems to have all the contracts. But interestingly for the next week or so it seems like 6400 6,500 have kind of come out. Now I think it's always important that when we're down here we focus on the charts, focus on the flows, focus on the movements. So, we're also looking for large dark pools. And of course, if I see one, I'll share it with you guys so you guys can see it. So, make sure to sub for that cuz it's going to be a uh very important couple of weeks here. This is a critical level for sure.
Let's have a look here at triple Q's 600 just underneath. We are trading at 593. We often talk about 24,000 on the NASDAQ. You'll see later on today's show that these are all correlating together, including what's going on in the German markets as well. And the Australian markets and all of these markets seem to be at critical levels of correlation. So, there's a lot at stake. And Tesla, just for the update, cuz a lot of you guys like to look at it, 380 put wall. It's currently sitting on. When it comes to Bitcoin, it looks like around that 39 bracket seems to be where we get a little bit of put support. That's why we're probably holding above it, but we're kind of in a zone where we're not in positive gamma and we're not in extreme negative gamma either uh at this stage. When it comes to Nvidia, it's still holding above 170, which you guys know is the critical level.
All right, let's have a look at the lead indicators. Then we'll check out the charts that matter. First up, let's have a look at yields. 10-year yield tried to break to a new high here above 5 4.3. was unable to do so, but the 2-year yield went kind of crazy really and actually spiked all the way up to 3.9%. Now, this is a very critical spike because basically what it's showing us is that the market itself has come into a key level of resistance and it did it in just like a session. It just went boom and then of course came back down. Now, this is a bit worrying because of course this is going to affect bonds as well. So it's putting a bit of strain on things like corporate bonds and of course we need to be tracking high yield junk as well. Now because instantly it reversed we can see here that while we were making lower lows on high yield junk we ended the day actually positive.33%. But we have to track bonds in we always do anyway on this channel. You guys know we all track it together. Uh so don't worry we're tracking it but at the same time you know it's it's a bit of a worry that they have broken to the downside. So remember bonds actually broke down. The market itself hasn't yet. Uh so we we'll see how that eventuates. Have the bonds kind of over overshot the level or is it actually a precursor?
Let's have a look here at spreads. You can see credit spreads are starting to expand again. That is a little bit of a concern. Usually when this is higher as we looked at before with the data that doesn't present great returns for the market. So that's why we want to be looking at structure. and the Magnificent 7 continues to see a series of lower lows and lower highs as well. It's very difficult when the market is made up of 37% tech uh from these big stocks for the markets to go up significantly without these guys. You know, the Magnificent 7 and the big tech stocks, if they're not coming, it is an issue. We have hit the anchored VWAP of the previous kind of move of the mags. So, this is a critical anchored VWAP level. It's also, of course, the weekly 50. And you can see here that we can actually put like little technical alerts above these levels here because what's happened is this market has been making the series of lower lows and lower highs. But we also know that around this level here, we have some massive rejections. So that probably means people have put stop losses behind here, which could tell us, you know, where is a change of trend from the technical side on markets. It's a it's a very interesting level that's coming up. If we do end up seeing a bounce, remember to come from the point of uh patience and abundance, guys, there's always another one.
Got another evolving story here was that the US dollar didn't actually break that 130 even though yields did go up. Often when you see yields go up, I guess you would say the dollar is usually uh seen as being potentially more bullish. Now, we've got all sorts of things going on in the markets right now that are fighting for the dollar. You know, is the dollar going to break up? Is going to break down? The government's kind of in in there kind of, you know, moving around as well to relieve some of the stresses in the financial system. A lot going on in this chart. Could it be a WO off bottom? It certainly could be. Critical level to watch. Very important chart. Arguably probably one of my top three, top two at the moment that I'm looking at closely.
US oil, not too much to note here, but we do see that if we look at a future oil contract, which most retail traders do not look at, you'll notice that they've actually made higher highs. And that's suggesting that the market believes there's going to be longerlasting ramifications of everything that's going on. So just remember that's part of the reason that we're seeing risk continue to be in these markets. Semiconductors did sell but they managed to buy by the end of the session. Critical level 377. We're watching that on the charts from a technical side and obviously it hasn't broken below.
Now silver a lot of you guys in the comment section was like oh wow silver fell off heavy over the last 24 hours. So you actually take this top and that was a bit wrong but you'll get the idea. It's over like 14% or something like that to the downside and then it's rallied a bit of it back. Now you can see here that this is a critical close level. Why? Well, previous closes have all been around here. So silver's barely holding on at this stage and it's probably comes as no surprise to most of you when volatility enters as I often say that nautilus chart the one we shared like a month ago kind of show two months ago whenever it was kind of showed us that this is the more likely path. Unfortunately for silver when you get these types of extreme volatility events it often means sideways for a period of time as the market readjusts. And the same thing is what we've seen in gold. So the only difference with gold is gold is also seen as a bit better of a hedge. And you can see here that if we go through history and we have a look at this 20weekly moving average area, it's been pretty strong uh in recent history in terms of finding buyers. So we'll we'll find out whether the structure can hold for gold and silver. It's bit early to tell that yet, but it is at one of those critical levels that Wall Street often looks at and it's fallen off and I think it's got a lot of news as well around it. So um you know critical level for it. Nothing much to update on Nvidia, but we do cover it every day. 170, you know, below that would be, I guess, you know, kind of key.
When it comes to Chinese markets, they're still holding their support for now. Uh, so of course, we're still seeing those markets hold. And I think this is kind of what we're getting at this stage. We've got a lot of different markets. So, this is the South Korean market, and I only bring this up because it it really should be studied because it's up 10 and something% in 12 months, which is worrying. Volatility, by the way, guys, set in here. Yeah. very concerning market in my opinion, but we'll see. But I want to mention here the other markets of the world. Here is the Australian market, the XJO, and you'll notice it's on technical support. Let's now have a look at the German market for a second. What do you notice about it, guys? It's on technical support areas. So, why is this important? Because this could be seen as a woff distribution as well. So, if we break down, you can kind of get why these these levels are so big because there's so many different markets around the world all correlating together.
If we take a look at the NASDAQ 24,000 again, major level. If we break it, many people are going to see this is a double top style strategy. And of course, if you're taking a double top style strategy, then you're going to say, well, if we extrapolate that out, that's how much is going to fall off. And it takes us back to 22,000ish, which is the previous peaks back in 2025, which if we then take the top to the bottom, would give us about a 15% correction. Not unheard of, funnily enough, it's around the same percentage as we've seen in previous uh oil crises. So, um yeah, it's it's a critical level. And usually I don't expect it to go the full distance, but that's the kind of thing that's at stake here when you're looking at these crossorrelations. So, we're watching the very small time frames closely to see whether we actually find biders.
When it comes to Ethereum and Bitcoin, Ethereum is holding that anchored VWAP off the last move before it broke out, which I think is encouraging for it. And Bitcoin is also holding around that zone. Enough to go off yet? Not really. Structurally, we've we've just started to see the potential of small bid, but you can kind of see how much is at stake here when we're talking about triple witching and the weekly close.
Guys, I hope you enjoyed today's video. There's so much going on in markets. Make sure to subscribe. If you haven't done one of our trading courses before, definitely check out fxevolution.com. Consider the day trading masterass ultimate one or the advanced class if you want to understand more about where we're really at here because this is looking obviously late cycle. A lot of you guys in the comment section said this must be the longest late cycle ever. It really isn't. I mean, it lasts usually a couple of years uh when you're in that type of thing. But it's so imperative to understand where we are cycllically and why these types of things happen. More importantly, where should we actually be looking at the pillars? And we do share a lot of that here on YouTube. But of course, there's even more in the courses. If you're also interested, check us out on X. And of course, I want to say a big thank you to each and every one of you for supporting the channel each and every day. And if you can give it a thumbs up and of course hype it as well, that does help us out. Thanks so much. I'm looking forward to bringing you the weekend video because the close is the key.