Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the heavy metal verse. Today, we're going to talk about gold, dubious speculation.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. You can also check out bjamincan.com as well if you want to reach out for any type of different inquiries or whatever it may be. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, gold is now right around $4600. And I would argue that it's generally on the path that we talked about back in, what, like 2020, uh, where we generally talked about gold sort of moving up, consolidating, but then ultimately breaking higher as we got into 2025, 2026, and then really going into the end of the decade. And one of the videos we put out way back then, this was, you know, I think back in like 2020 or something, uh, five years ago, um, was 2020, 2021. We talked about, "Is Gold Headed to 6K Over the Next 6 to 9 Years?" And so we're, it's been about five or six years so far. Now, at the time, gold was a lot lower, right? Like, you can see it wasn't even $2,000 at the time. Now it's approaching $5,000.
So, in the short term, what I think makes the most amount of sense to do, and I've said this like every month for like the last several years, especially since this broke, since this breakout began back in late 2023, was back, was basically just to respect the bull market, you know, respect it. And what you'll notice is that gold held the bull market support band in February of 2024, and in November of 2024, and in August of 2025. And of course, it'll likely test it at some point as well in 2026. If you look at the time frame between tests, you can see that was about 39 weeks. This one was about 37 weeks. Currently, it's been about 24 weeks. So, you know, it could still take some time before gold ends up testing it.
What I've said before is I'm sort of expecting a short-term blow-off top in metals, probably within the first half of 2026. Um, I'm not yet convinced that it's going to be the top, though. And I want to talk about, like, the RSI because I've seen a lot of people talk about the monthly RSI for gold and how overbought it is. And it's true. But I also want to show you why the monthly RSI is such a terrible indicator for trying to figure out if gold is at a top or not. Okay, at least a macro top. Right now, you know, the the monthly RSI on gold is about 93 to 94. It hasn't been that high since 1973, also a decade where we had inflation issues. Okay? And we've made the comparisons to the '70s. In fact, one of the comparisons that we've made, uh, was the S&P divided by gold. Right? If you look at the S&P 500 divided by gold, you can see that it's kind of at the same level now that it broke down from in 1973, right? So, it's kind of interesting how similar it is, right? Gold, and it even bounced, right? It even bounced right there back up to basically the same level, and now it's starting to really roll over.
And so what I think is interesting in this case is if you go back to gold, just the gold chart, and you look at the monthly RSI back in 1973, when the S&P broke down against gold, we saw that the the monthly RSI hit about 94. And so back then, what happened was gold had a correction, about a 30% drop. Now, again, who knows exactly where the short-term local top is, but if we, if gold had a 30% drop, it would essentially put it at around $3,200 or so. Okay. Now, where is the bull market support band right now? The bull market support band is about $1,000 higher than that. So, gold would end up going below it in that case if it were to play out in a similar way.
What I want to draw your attention to is not the fact that we might have a 30% drawdown, which is what I think's likely going to happen at some point in 2026. I think probably a top in the first half and then a drawdown kind of going into the second half. But the reason why the monthly RSI is such a terrible indicator for trying to time a top is imagine if you sold all your gold in May of 1973, when the monthly RSI of gold hit 94, the same as it is today. Okay, you would have made some money, right? Especially if you got in down here, you would have made a solid gain, right? A couple hundred percent. Uh, that's nothing to scoff at, especially for something like gold. If you look here, since October 2022, gold is up almost a couple hundred percent. But what's interesting is that while it did that, after it hit a monthly RSI of 94, after that, gold still rallied 600% over the next seven years. Okay, you're talking about another 7x move after the monthly RSI hit 94. So, while it's true, there were some sizable drawdowns in here, 30%, you know, 26%, and then we had this one which was deeper, 49% or so. It's also true that had you sold the top at a monthly RSI, you would have, you would have avoided about a 30% drop, but if you didn't buy back, you would have missed out another 600% rally from there. Obviously, things don't have to repeat exactly. But it just goes to show why things like the monthly RSI are not necessarily the best indicator.
The other thing that I want to draw your attention to for gold is to look at the valuation of gold against M2. So when you look at it like this, gold has recently broken through the high from 2011. Okay. Now, a lot of times when I see charts like this, um, I start looking at at kind of the different levels that I would want to see it break through. And assuming this is not just a sweep before a pullback, the next level I think has to be up here right now. That from the current level would be about another 26% move. I could see a scenario where gold finds sort of a top in the short term within the next few months, pulls back to slightly below the prior high, and then continues to go up into the end of the decade. Right? I I kind of think that's how it's going to play out, where, yeah, like we get that it's overbought. It's not like it takes a rocket scientist to say that, yeah, like, I mean, things are kind of heated. But this also seems like one of those long-term things where like the, the "I am very smart" thing to do that a lot of people think is really smart is to sell, and it could certainly work out in the short term. But in six years, I would say there's a good chance that gold is much higher than it is today, even if there is like a 30% drop sometime this year. And so I would still argue that this path we talked about back then, "Is Gold Headed to 6K Over the Next 6 to 9 Years?" I would say it still seems like a, um, you know, a distinct possibility.
You can see that back then, gold was at about $1,700, and we were just kind of comparing to some other prior moves. I'm not really sure if I drew it out, uh, in this video or not, but generally speaking, I I think what we talked about in this video has been playing out, where we talked about how we were sort of leaving that fair value logarithmic regression trend line. Here's kind of a path that I drew out where it would kind of go slowly higher. And you can see I have it topping sometime between 2025 and 2030. In this case, it looks like I drew it closer to maybe 2026, 2027. So, you know, it could end up being sort of a, that might be that local top that I'm I'm sort of talking about. But in this case, um, you know, you're talking about that would put it closer to like say between five and $6,000 essentially. So, I'm still of the opinion that it, that gold will likely hit 6K probably before the end of the decade. I think going above 5K does seem like a likely scenario. Um, and I think it's still possible for it to go to 6K before the end of the decade. I'm not sure that it's going to go, you know, as high as some people want it to by the end of the decade. I'm not saying it won't eventually get there. there. I mean, at the end of the day, these charts just go up and to the right because the denominator, the US dollar, they're never going to stop printing more of it. Um, and so, you know, assets just go up in price. But, you know, it's these long-term charts that just kind of allow me to to stay bullish on these assets.
And it is it is nice when, you know, especially when other asset classes are struggling, like, you know, crypto is certainly struggling against metals. Even stocks are at all-time highs, but they're down a lot against metals. It shows you like why there's some justification in my opinion for metals in in a in a portfolio. I know it's like easy to laugh at them at times, but you basically have like what's going on in metals now is what a lot of people thought was going to be going on in altcoins, and and metals just continue to outperform. In fact, if you were to look at like total three divided by gold, you know, total three is is kind of dropping back near the 2022 lows when valued in gold. And as I said the other day, it's already put in new lows when valued in silver. So, what I think you're seeing, and we've talked about this for a while, is there's been this like relative shift away from more speculative things like crypto and altcoins and towards like more hard assets like things you could hold with your hands like gold and silver and that sort of stuff. And, you know, I've I've told people I think it was a good idea to pivot like away from altcoins basically every year for the last four years. And and now that alts are putting in new low new lows against gold, you know, I've continued or against silver, I've continued to reiterate that message that like it's not too late in my opinion to pivot away from altcoins. I mean, I I've I've told people that altcoins in my opinion are not really a great investment basically for the last four or five years. Um, but seems like every single year people are like, "Oh, well, it's too late now to pivot, right?" and and it's kind of this like thing where everyone's always worried that if they like sell their altcoins, they're going to go like miss out on an alt season. Um, and I'm not I'm not saying that things can't rally at all in the crypto markets, but you know, as I've said before, and I'll continue to reiterate, the the the prior alt seasons that we had were preceded by social interest trending higher for like 6 to 12 months. And we've seen the opposite of that, right? Social interest has been trending lower in crypto over the last 6 to 12 months. And so I I think the fear of missing out on alt season is is not really justified. It's just, Yeah. I mean, like, I guess anything's possible, but retail is leaving crypto, not really heading towards it. There's like no evidence that retail has been heading towards crypto at all. And it's really just been dropping in dropping in interest throughout all of 2025 for the most part.
So yeah, I get it's always easy to say, yeah, like it's way too late to pivot. Gold is at all-time highs. The monthly RSI is 94. You know, if you go buy gold now, obviously you you run the risk of buying that short-term top. So I'm not I'm not suggesting you do that. What I am suggesting you do is, you know, keep an eye out on on metals if there are corrections. Um, I still think we're kind of in that zone of like, you know, buying the dip is likely going to be rewarded. And the other thing to remember too is that altcoins are just falling knives against metals until proven otherwise. You know, I think that the the thing for me that I really struggle to understand is why there are so many people that sort of led like their thoughts were completely incorrect on the altcoin market for the last four years, right? like think calling for alt season every single year and it not actually happening. But yet they will sort of speak in a way in a very confident way to say that all right, yeah, now is a bad time to pivot to metals. But the problem is that they were on the wrong side of altcoins for four years, but they think they hold sort of like an authoritar um, like a a voice of authority on an asset class that they faded for years. And again, when you look at like alts against silver, altcoins are just putting in new lows, right? So to to me, what a lot of people, and basically this is what it boils down to, and this is kind of how one of the ways you can spot a more sort of like novice investor, and I'm not just talking about like now, I'm just talking about in general, is how a lot of people will think that they can always time the end of a trend, um, just when things feel like they're exhausted, right? So like a lot of people feel like altcoins are down so much, they couldn't possibly bleed to battles anymore, right? That's what they think. But yet every single month, they just continue to drop, right? I mean, you're looking at like, I mean, look at the last, what, 6 months? Alts dropped against silver 4%, or 3 and a half, then 10 and a half, then 11, then 25, then 25 again, then 15. Like every single month, you could have said, "Oh, it's too late." And then they just kept on bleeding, right?
So, one of the ways I think, and I I've struggled with this in the past, too, is is to always think that you know when the momentum is over. Because with markets, momentum, as I've said before, is a hell of a drug. You can think, you know, when the trend is over, but there's no guarantee that it won't just simply do something like this, where it just continues to drop. Like, there's no guarantee that it won't just that alts won't just continue to drop against silver. They very well could, and honestly, over the next couple of years, it's probably the more likely scenario. That doesn't mean that they can't occasionally rally if silver gets a 40% corre, 30 to 40% correction. Absolutely they would. But generally speaking, the most common mistake that I see people make throughout the years are basically, let me draw a trend, something like this. Okay, imagine a trend like that. If someone, and this is, let's say this is like kind of going into the bottom, right? If someone misses this, like the bottom of a trend, then they won't pivot, right? Like they'll never pivot. Like anytime it goes up, they'll feel like they missed the train. And then it goes down, and they're like, "Oh, see, I told you." And then it goes up again, and and then they feel like they missed the train. And then it goes down again, and they're like, "See, I told you." And it just kind of keeps on repeating over and over again to the point where you look back all these years later and you see that alts are now at new lows against silver, and they're probably going to go to new lows against gold as well.
The thing is is like, it's true that things like silver are extremely elevated, and and like these moves will have some type of mean reversion, but the the thing that I think a lot of people are missing is that when metals mean revert, there's a good chance that risk assets will will drop more. Okay, now I want you to think about this. Bitcoin masked the weakness of alts for years. Bitcoin went up, alts went down, but because Bitcoin went up, it felt like to a lot of people that alts were doing well and that where they were eventually going to catch up. Now that Bitcoin stalled out, it's more obvious that alts have just been stuck in traffic on struggle street since 2021. Now, I think the bullishness by metals is kind of masking some of the weakness in crypto in in in Bitcoin and crypto because something's going up a lot, and it it can kind of make pe it can kind of make the markets uh hold on for a little while. But there's a lot of times in history when like gold corrects, for instance, like when it had that big rally in 1973, um, and it was a local top. If you were to look at the stock market when gold found that local top, what you'll notice is that the stock market dropped about 50% when gold had that local top, or near that local top of a monthly RSI of 70 or of 94. So there's a chance that yes, metals are approaching a sort of a local top in the first half of 2026, which is my base case. But when they correct, I think there's a lot of people that think that when they correct, then crypto will then rally. But in reality, the more likely outcome based on what we've seen throughout all of history is that whenever gold corrects, it's likely going to lead risk assets to correct harder. We've already seen it happen. I know. I mean, I know this. We've seen it happen already. Look back at what happened in April of 2025. Gold had a correction, um, you know, around the time that that that stocks, you know, found their lows. Gold only dropped like 10%, 11%. But stocks dropped double that, right? Like stocks dropped what from then? They dropped 20%.
The the chart that you're seeing here is how I'm showing how stocks in 2019 continue to rally, um, even while Bitcoin went down. The the arrows that I I drew there, we're basically just overlaying Bitcoin with the stock market. And you can this was a different, a different video I did, but you can see how how Bitcoin, um, Bitcoin was going down while stocks were going up. Same thing's happening today, right? Bitcoin's been going down, and and stocks have generally been trending higher. Until the stock market gets a serious correction, Bitcoin is likely just going to keep bleeding against stocks. Like, that's just the reality. Okay? I'm not saying you can't have short-term rallies, but until the stock market gets a serious correction, Bitcoin will likely continue to bleed against stocks. So, you know, if you're over there holding a bag of altcoins thinking that like whenever metals correct, that's going to be your moment. I want you to recognize that history does not necessarily agree with that. A lot of history with metals suggests that whenever they do find a top after a after a parabolic rally, risk assets are actually dropping harder. So like there exists a scenario where something like total 3 divided by gold continues to drop even on a gold drop. It's the same premise that we talked about with Bitcoin and alts for years, that like alts bleed against Bitcoin no matter whether Bitcoin goes up or down. You could say that we're in a regime right now that crypto bleeds against metals no matter if metals go up or down. It's just part of the cycle, right? It's part of the cycle. And then once we get to the end of that cycle, and then risk assets truly find a bottom, that'll sort of be the start of the next cycle where then risk assets start to outperform, um, metals again. But I don't think we're at that phase right now. Like I think we're at the phase where things like the stock market are about to drop to break down against gold.
So, you know, the reality is is gold has actually been a better investment than stocks since 2021, right? I mean, like stocks are down, the stock, the S&P 500 is down 44% against gold over the last five years or four to five years. Might not feel like it. You might be like, "Well, what about the AI bubble?" Yeah, I mean, this AI bubble is not like the.com bubble. Like, I know a lot of people compare it to that. And, you know, there I'm not saying there's no comparisons to be made, but when you look at the S&P divided by gold, it looks a lot more like the '70s, right? I mean, we're not as like the valuations are not as extreme. It looks more like the '70s to me. And if the S&P 500 breaks down against gold, it's going to completely change like everything in the markets, like everything. The way like all the different correlations that currently exist, a lot of them will break down. So, this is an important chart. Make sure you guys watch this chart.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. You can also reach out on benjamanc.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.