Could This Really Happen?

What did Tom Lee just say about markets? And will it really happen during 2026?

Well, today's number is 7,300. And the reason why is it's where he believes markets will go before potentially falling as much as 15 to 20% into midterm elections. Could this really happen? And does it line up well with seasonality, something we've been talking about for quite some time on the channel?

Well, one thing seems likely at this stage. We may be priced in when it comes to semiconductors because TSM just had a record bumper profit, pretty good guidance, and it still fell 3% on the session. So, what exactly is going on as some of the most hated sectors start to find bids? And one of our favorites has just had the best 5 days of any of the majors. Join us as we go through stocks, commodities, and cryptos to help better understand the markets right now. See you soon.

Well, welcome back everybody to one of the largest daily shows on the planet. If you're new here, then why not subscribe and of course smash that bell icon as we cover everything that you need to know daily, whether it's stocks, commodities, or cryptos. Today, we need to talk about software, what's going on in energy, and of course, the latest in the macro news.

But let's kick things off here with a post here from Mr. derivatives. Obviously following up on the latest interview with Tom Lee on television which basically had him calling for not only all-time highs this month which he did get correct by the way but he is also reiterating that he will see potential here of 7,300 before maybe a collapse of upwards of 15 to 20%. Now, this is pretty interesting because of course it lines up pretty well with that idea that we've talked about. First quarter sell into rally into sell and then I think the question mark is there. Generally speaking, if you're looking at the overall seasonality, you'll usually find a rally in Q4. So that is just before elections we usually see the bottoming of markets. And this comes back to this particular seasonality study from Polycarp FX, which basically shows here that markets recover in April, often top out kind of during that period in midterm election years, drop off pretty substantially, and then tend to rally just before the elections themselves. Now, this is at least what's happened in most midterm election years if you were to take them all on average. And you can see here that some of the most affected during those times are the Russell and of course, we also get the NASDAQ. And the main reason why we get the NASDAQ as well is because of course it has those high gamma style stocks on it. Big moves, huge amounts of valuation changes and all of those types of things.

But does that line up with all of the other data that we've seen so far? Well, one of the things I guess helping that call is that we have had 12 days up straight in a row. Subu trade coming through follow over X by the way if you're interested in finding out more about this data. Basically has come out with a very similar study. What happens when we're up this much? Well, you may notice here that a few weeks later, it's kind of up, down, all around. Actually, 3 months later and 6 months later, only a coin flip pretty much of the time it's up. And then we're up one year later 100% of the time. So, that would basically be exactly what the data stats would be saying. Up, down, potentially up, and then a new all-time high. Now, I do think that the Q4 is really the question mark. But, as we often have said on this channel, especially over the last 3 months, earnings, earnings, earnings, guys, and we'll take a look at TSM's latest earnings in just a moment, which were pretty damn good. But remember, the markets have been pricing semiconductors pretty well for quite some time. However, the backbone is going usually means how strong the market is. And at the moment, the AI trade, the capex trade, everything we'll talk about in this weekend's video about how this market even is here at this stage other than just to squeeze people out. Uh, we'll talk about all of that coming up. So, make sure to sub for that as well.

Let's have a look here at Blue Kurt's latest data. This is when we make a new all-time high and of course what tends to happen after that. Again, it can be okay for a little bit and then it gets a little bit flaky and then of course we do sometimes see some pretty big draw downs. You can see noticeable periods here where markets have fallen actually quite a lot after getting reads such as this. Let's hope we're not on this one over here, guys, or this one back in 2000 because although the markets did rally a bit, it was the beginning of the end. Do you think that's where we are? Let us know in the comments down below. We do seem to be doing a lot of late cycle style trading and investing at this stage.

Now, let's move over to of course TSM, the first of the big semiconductors coming out here. Big announcement. Let's just read some Nate notes here about how good it was. 35% revenue growth. I posted this over on X, by the way, if you want to follow us at FX Evolution. 58% profit growth, margins expanding to 66% which is incredible. And they raised the fullear guidance as well uh to 52 to 56 billion. So basically they believe that everything is looking fantastic in terms of demand. This is pretty much one of the most important in the world. And yet the market was down 3%. And a lot of people left scratching their heads in these situations saying how's that possible? It's called priced in. So you always have to look at the left hand side on markets and understand have these prices or has the market run ahead of itself.

Now what we're seeing as this is coming through is interestingly software starting to pick up. So remember it's been down with software up with AI and everything that's a software business is suddenly worthless. At least that's what the market's been looking at. Now, that hasn't been the case for the last 10 days. And just before software went on this little epic run, stocks like Microsoft picking up pretty heavily, we actually saw a lower low. And we've been talking about it here on the channel for some time with those massive darkpool activities on the overall software sector. It's actually been the best performing here over the last 5 days. And you'll notice that the market went down in the defensive. So, basically, it has been risk on, risk on, risk on. And that will come as no surprise if you've been watching these markets. When we're talking about darkps, if you're new here, basically a darkpool is just a transaction between two massive entities. We always assume that somebody probably knows something about something nowadays, especially in 2026. And when you see huge clusters of them like this and it comes with technical analysis, that strengthens the case for that level. Previously, we saw of course a lot of clusters up here at the highs that led to a pretty big decline. And you got to remember, someone's usually early on these things. So, what are all these guys doing? Huge volumes. Does someone see value here? Well, that's the largest transaction ever recorded on this sector just a little while ago. So, for now, you can kind of get the idea of what it could be implying. It's not always the case though, so you've got to remember that.

Speaking of large dark pools, we've now had, of course, the number one here. Volume leaders posting this one over on the X channel. So, give them a follow. And you can see here that we have the number one darkpool print. But it's not just a darkpool print. It's a sweep, which means it's a quick one, guys. That that is done in hasty action. Now, at this stage, the market has picked up a little bit off this level, but do remember that energy has declined. It's still in an upward trend on a lot of the time frames. So, if you're looking at things like weekly, monthly, even daily, this is actually the demand zone for a lot of uh market technical analysis. So, are we going to find a bid here? We've got one or two days of slight action. And obviously if we continue to see that then that could signal that maybe the energy trade is still moving. It all really comes back to what is happening in of course the Middle East and will we see uh you know continuation of maybe uh peace talks or whatever's going on at this stage. We don't know. Weekends seem to be where a lot of this action happens. So do remember risk management is key at this point guys uh because we do see some large gaps all the time.

Now speaking of insane things let's have a look here at Avis. Now, you probably haven't looked at this, but we have been watching it. We just saw a huge amount of dark pulls. Now, this is definitely not a point where I'd be like, "Oh, wow. It's a great short or anything like that, but again, it could be a good one to watch and have a look at." So, you can kind of see how this moves. Someone traded a big one over here. It led to a big rally, but now we're starting to see clusters at the top. So, this is on, of course, Avis, and it has been a wild pull. Now, has this happened before? Yeah, it did actually. It happened in 2021. And we're seeing a lot of similarities to this market in 2021. RK style stocks are starting to pick up. We're seeing a lot of uh risk on in in tech and different types of tech areas. And of course, we're getting a lot more activity as well. Just recently, we had the second largest trade ever recorded on SSO, which is a large S&P fund. And although the markets pushed up higher, you know, we'll be looking for clusters and things like that.

I also want to just talk about the Mickey Mouse pattern here for a second, which is of course the Cosby. Now, this I don't think many people are talking about. Most retail traders are not even aware unless you are in South Korea or trading that market in particular. And by the way, shout out to everyone in South Korea. Hello guys, I hope you're having a great day. Let us know in the comments down below if you watch from there. And this basically is a really interesting pattern because again it's a huge cluster and I call this the data center play. So basically this is the hardware side of AI. Um, at the moment it's been picking up a lot. It's got huge amounts of transactions in it now, which usually means that the easiest the biggest move remember that was overund what 40 50% on at 12 months for the index has happened and now everyone's aware of it. So it starts to get extremely volatile in a tighter range.

Now why is all of this happening? Well, partly because Wall Street is really bullish on the future. This one here from Duality Research over on X really shows how strong everyone is at the moment on earnings. Quarterly earnings, yearly earnings, everybody is super bullish and that seems to be living up to expectations at least at this point. Remember, we will be tracking each and every earnings of the majors. That's worthwhile over the next coming weeks. So, sub to the channel for that. I've also got uh the newsletter coming this week as well if you're interested. One free institutional style insight, totally free pin comment down below if you want to join us there, guys. Some great feedback there from that as well.

Let's now have a look at the dollar index. We didn't quite hit what I thought would be the maybe stopping of the dollar on the sell side. Um, we kind of got close to that level. Then what we've seen is a bit of a pickup, but yeah, not too much action here on the dollar in recent days. Levels to watch in the future. 90 or basically par 99 I mean 99 level would be interesting around here is interesting. And then of course if we go further down on this side, well that could mean the dollar is actually starting to collapse a little bit. So we'll we'll follow that if that happens.

S&P all-time highs keeps pushing higher. Totally ex totally over um overbought. But remember markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Once it took out 6,800 6870, which I still think is an extremely good TA zone. We just didn't really get everything we thought we might. We thought we might get a island reversal. By the time the market opened, it had already reversed back up. So that's why it's good to practice patience and actually see the market lock it in stone. We didn't actually see that happen. But now we've got 2050 cross. We're above, of course, the daily 200, which is important. And the markets themselves are rallying. So could we be heading for 7,300? Yeah, I mean it could possibly happen. I mean, at this stage, what you're really just saying is, okay, does the index look easy? Not really. Does sectors look easier? Do stocks look easier? Yeah, I mean this is what happens. You start to get rotation and we've already seen that now over the last 5 days. Something we've been looking at over on fxolution.com in our market masters club. A lot of you guys um cuz you know it's amazing how like-minded all of the people that watch this channel are, which is awesome. A lot of you guys do find using some of our courses uh those those types of patterns. And it's interesting how many setups in terms of technical uh levels have been breached or broken over the last particularly 5 days. We got a lot of um you know movement through different sectors. So that initial rally happened in semis pulled with it all the tech and then of course you start to see other things come along. So there's always another opportunity what I'm trying to get at always the abundance mindset and lifestyle.

Now let's have a look here at US 500. It's higher highs and higher lows for now guys. Um, it doesn't matter which one I look at. They're all the same. I've updated the options high lows. We're in uncharted territory. And at this stage, what you're probably looking for is is there a moving average that it's following on the way up or something like that. But not really. I mean, just continuously, you know, ballistic. And I think it's going to really be on news uh in terms of what's happening here. In terms of call walls, we're still in positive gamma, but we are facing up against that 7,50 and 7100 level. You can see here all of the options markets have moved to that level. And you'll notice here that we get 77 uh 7,50 7,50 7,50. We breach and close through that. Then you're probably going to 7100. And then of course that makes Tom Le 7,300 more possible.

Of course, uh when we have a look here at the cues, it seems like they've moved up to different call walls. They're actually sitting now at about 645. Uh, but still, you know, very positive, of course, in the markets. And you can see here that 640 645 is where we're looking over the next couple of sessions. So again, u strong strong spike ups here in the overall options movements when it comes to Nvidia 200 200 200. Notice the price is just underneath that. So we're basically at that resistance, guys. And we do have, of course, quite a lot of call resistance. It doesn't matter which one you look at. Same thing with Bitcoin. Bitcoin sitting at 4344. We know 4344 is a call wall. We've seen it plenty of times before. And Tesla is is kind of at 390, but that's not really the major level. It looks like 400's the major level, and we were just there. So, we're just about there. This is this is a huge thing. And those people with those 970 calls, they're still there from all that time ago. Uh, so, it's interesting to see that. But yeah, 3 390400 39400 seems to be Tesla. And that's awoken over the last couple of days. I think it's been helped by of course rising oil prices and we've seen that with BYD and some other stocks as well that have started to show nice technical moves even about a month and a bit ago they started to kind of ramp up.

All right, let's start off here with some of the sectors that we're watching in terms of technical side. You can see here we've got a basing structure, a massive amount of volume, a break high which is pretty strong. We got through of course the first level here of 77. Now we've gotten through 83. Can we get through 89? These are the key zones that we're looking at. This is a very hated sector. So, if you look at uh everything software, it's just been brutalized in recent weeks and months. And really, this has been the anti- AAI trade. So, basically, everyone that is on the AI train uh is kind of selling off software, but it has gone down 37%. We also saw Microsoft do that as well. for the Cosby, which is something we're looking at. Uh, this is basically what I think is hardware because so much of the South Korean market is driven by Samsung and others. Uh, you can see here it's back at the resistance. To me, this is a huge amount of volatility. That usually it means that someone is aware and we've got that kind of Mickey Mouse thing going on there. And you can see here as well, different areas are moving through. We've got here uranium, uh, which is broken a downward trend line. Kind of looks like the market, but it's a little bit different setup. And you can kind of see here we've got a pit which is a pullback in time. Then we have a market that's been rallying. It's kind of hit this little resistance and at this stage it's obviously in a series of higher highs and higher lows which I guess is encouraging for energy sector.

Biggest trade recorded comes down here. Slight pickup in terms of price. Price has started to move. Got little levels here such as higher highs uh that we'd like to see in terms of changing trend on the higher time frames. But you will note that this is the most traded zone on the way up. So it does make sense to see some activity around this area. Will energy continue to move up though? Well, it does line in okay with oil uh which is basically that we've got here this major level at around 88. And if we do end up breaching uh 88 towards the downside, then that could mean that that the market is pricing in, you know, a lot of improvement of course with everything that's going on. But 88 is a major level when you look at it on the higher time frames for US oil. XME very similar to uranium slightly, you know, breakout here and a slight improvement. 2050 cross, one of the big technical analysis terms in in moving averages possibly going to happen soon. So again, a lot of different things moving. We've looked at emerging markets. They've been picking up as well. And again, when it's risk on, especially when it's driven by potential inflation concerns, you do tend to see those markets come through. And gold is resilient. It's a higher high, higher low, but no real change. Looking at whether it can get to 5,000, at least on the charts. That's one of the zones that people are looking at. And copper smashes into resistance. So copper's actually been stronger than the other metals of concerns of obviously uh everything that you need to refine it as well. So copper's got I think quite a lot of problems the longer this goes on and that could really spike one of the most important metals in the world. HSI again Chinese markets made a higher high which is encouraging after doing a small pit here. Have they gone you know absolutely ballistic to the upside? No. Uh, but they did break slightly high. Big problems on the left hand side here but this is still the first signs of improvement on that market.

I just wanted to reiterate again how insane some of these charts are. Look at car here. This is this is pretty crazy. Uh, you know has it happened before? Yes. And funnily enough, it was back in November of 21. So yeah, is it going all the way to 540? Hey, I don't know. What I will say is that's a squeeze. And when they eventually go bad, um, which they generally do, uh, then it can get pretty nasty. Speaking of squeezes, we've got SNDK as well, uh, this one's actually gone higher than I would have expected, but you big moves here, guys. And obviously some massive stuff going on reminiscent a little bit of 2021 which makes us think uh we started to get a little bit too exuberant when it comes to the NASDAQ. Alltime high obviously reached massive Vshape huge movement here on the markets. No sign of relenting just yet but again it could be just a news away from at least falling back down. Levels to watch in the future 25,000. We'll do a full update on the S&P NASDAQ and Russell on the weekend video though once we get the closes.

When it comes to Tesla, you can see an important close above the 20 daily moving average. Also above that low, lower high, lower low. Uh, this is a significant switch zone potentially here on markets. And then of course, we've got Ethereum as well. Uh, which is right at that resistance just kind of coiling. Now, if it does break out, this would probably enter into a potential squeeze. And one of the reasons that may happen is because of the lefth hand side having almost no support. So it could be a very interesting chart should Ethereum actually start to break. Bitcoin is doing the same thing. Interesting level here at about 761. Why? Because that could be where stop losses are. So you know 761 79 and then potentially 89. Imagine if it could get back there. Would that bring people back into crypto? It's been pretty disliked for quite some time on the chart, especially through 2025 late.

All right guys, well that's it for today. Quick summary here on markets. We've got, of course, S&P, NASDAQ, everything up. Are they exhausted? Yeah, they're they're super exhausted in terms of technicals. However, that doesn't mean they have to turn. Markets can stay irrational longer than you remain solvent. The key thing though is that we've got sector rotation continuing on. So, there's always another opportunity going on out there. And I think the interesting thing here is we're seeing software spiking up while semiconductors have great earnings, but they're showing huge darkpool activity all over them. Could this be a changing of perception in the markets? Hey, I'm interested to see your comments down below. Remember to sign up for our newsletter. Check out our courses as well if you want to find out more about how you can better read these charts, how 2026 is shaping up, and also why we already did think that we'd probably have these two kind of pullbacks through the year. If you remember, if you've been watching the channel, you would know that this is kind of what we expected, although maybe not that quick a Vshape. Also, give us a follow on X. And um, yeah, thank you so much for watching, guys. Pretty wild markets out there. Be careful. Risk management. I know it's a boring word, but you probably want to be on it because guess what? Deregulation continues, which is a story for the weekend video. Bye for now.