Transcription
Hello everyone. So today will be a good one, right? And I would like you guys to take everything that I take you to heart, right? If I say that this is how you should look at a chart, this is how you should do it, right? And this is the only way you should do it. And this is the order in which you should look at each asset class because each asset class affects the other asset classes, right? But there's a chain reaction within certain sectors such as the Forex Market. You know, which occurs during the dollar index, Euro, and the pound. You know, which will affect what the index futures markets do.
Anyways, we'll start with the economic calendar. So tomorrow, right, Monday, you can see that we have the Euro, you know, having a bank holiday, right? So tomorrow, right, we have high impact news events for the dollar at 10:00 a.m., right? You know, so the only reason we would do anything tomorrow, right, is if we see sequential SMT between, you know, last week's high or Friday's high and this week's high, which would be Monday, which is, which should be tomorrow. It is a very interesting week, right? But tomorrow, we would, you know, mainly focus on the Forex pairs, right, which do not, are not celebrating a bank holiday, right? So if you're trading Forex and you like Forex, you know, you can focus on your the JPY, for example, or some crosses, as long as there is sequential SMT, right? There's, there will be something to do. But the index futures will be better, right? It would be better to trade the index futures due to the fact that the, the liquidity which is injected into the futures markets comes from the liquidity which is injected into the dollar, right? So tomorrow, you already know what to watch and what time you, you know, what to do and when to do it, right? Only time you touch anything is when there is sequence or SMT, and then once order flow is established, then you may, you know, proceed to place an order.
On Tuesday, right, which is the day after, after the Euro and the pound's bank holidays, right? We will have high impact news events in the morning, right? I would suggest not, you know, touching the pound and the Euro after its bank holidays because there tend to be low probability price action within the Forex pairs after then, you know? And then we will usually get volatility deeper into the week again. Then, if there is a setup, right, you can trade index futures, right? You can touch the S&P 500, you can touch the Nasdaq, and you can touch, you know, the Dow if you like the Dow, right?
Wednesday will be a good day to trade, right? So the best days to trade this week will actually be Wednesday, Thursday, and, and surprisingly, yes, Friday due to the fact that we have non-farm payroll. It's non-farm payroll week. People usually, you know, try to stay away from Fridays and non-farm payroll, but not us. Once there is sequential SMT, right, then there is something to do. All you have to do is manage your risk, right? So we do not fear volatility once we see SMT, right? Just, which is the stage one of how expansions form. Then you have a lower time frame sequence SMT, and then after that, you have expansion, then you just buy the fair value gap, right?
Anyways, you can see that all of these days, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, we have high impact news events, right? So even though, you know, within pairs such as the Forex pairs, you know, you will have expansion up, then expansion down, which would look like a choppy market conditions, right? It will look like choppy market conditions after the fact. But even if that happens, you can catch the low and then catch the high of the week, right? The low and the high of the week usually forms, right, with sequential SMT, right? That's when the low, the high, or the high of the week usually form. Without that, there is normally no, you know, expansion, no expansion. So you must wait for this thing to form. That is the base of everything. Before there is a fair value gap that is valid, you must wait for this specific thing that we always talk about, right?
Okay, so looking at the US dollar, the Euro, and the British pound. So whenever you're looking at the Forex Market, this is how you need this layout in front of you, right? And personally, I use these layouts to just, you know, see the charts. I have multiple monitors where I have each layout on, right? I use, you know, the center screen for, you know, fundamentals, which is literally just looking at Forex Factory, you know, sometimes watching the news, just looking what's happening, you know, around the world, just keeping tabs, right? But, you know, for technical analysis, you need to have these pairs, right, beside each other. You need to be able to compare them, right? For example, remember when we were here, we expected price to go higher? What was the main cause of that? The precision swing point, right? There's a precision swing point here, and there was, there was a new week opening gap, whereas the formation of the precision swing point occurred right after that. We had expansion. We expected price to, you know, retrace into this gap and then expand upwards, right? Blowing out this high and, you know, going towards this high, which was the draw liquidity, and we saw that happen, right?
Another thing is, if you look here, right, for the US dollar, and this is very important, right? Here we had sequential SMT right before price fell, right? So sequential SMT, price dropped and cleared these lows. Why the reason why you have price gravitate towards these lows or these highs or these highs over here is due to the fact that this was not caused by SMT, right? These, you know, lows are not, you know, cracked. There was no SMT here, so they will act as a magnet, right, for price, which is what we see. We saw happen here. So we saw price break, right? And also, there was a higher time frame sequential SMT here as well, right? Between this low and this low, we had the pound taken out this high, right? And due to the fact that, you know, the US dollar couldn't get to these lows, right, which were the immediate lows before this one, that was extremely bullish for the dollar, right? After taking out these lows, and there was a new week opening gap right here, right, for the dollar, you know, that we expected price to, for the Euro, we expected price to fall. Did, right?
So currently, we are, you know, basically just waiting for more information, right? We need to, you know, we need time and day to collide. We need day of week and the week of month to collide as well, right? So we need to see a sequence of time, you know, predicted with lows to allow us to determine a bias, right? And in coming off a, you know, Easter weekend, this is pretty normal, you know, we're just entering April, which is the second quarter of the year. So waiting for more information at this time is, you know, pretty normal due to the fact that there is a lot of, you know, engineered liquidity that will be, you know, pushed into the market this week. Price will, you know, be cleared. It's not an if, right? It's a must due to the fact that we have so much liquidity entering the markets. So currently, my, you know, we could, we still expecting a dollar to, you know, take this high. And if the pound takes this low and this one doesn't, then that would, you know, show us that, you know, we have SMT, something to work with, or, you know, we have on the lower time frames, right?
If you look at the pound, the pound is actually the best thing right now to look at. Why? This is due to the fact that, right, unclear price action always leads to clear price action, right? So whenever we have price chopping around, that's actually good. That's when you sit back and you identify the high and the low and you wait for one to be breached. If it's breached, and there is, you know, you already know what to look for, sequential SMT, then you have something to act upon, right? So here we have the pound in range, right? We have the Euro right below this low. The pound failed to break below this low, and then here again, we have SMT, right? So if the dollar takes this high out, right, here, takes this high out, and the pound, right, fails to take this low out, then we would definitely have something to do.
I actually changed my, my time, right, to the actual time zone that, you know, the algorithm uses, right? So this is UTC plus 2. But here, I still have my, you know, regular time zone, Eastern Standard Time. Actually, I didn't even realize that I still had this on. I didn't, you know, this is what I just use personally, like whenever I'm not talking about the charts, due to the fact that everyone is, you know, used to using EST, so I actually should have not have this here. But you already know now, so it's okay. Anyways, you can see that this 18 minutes past, right? So this is actually 12 a.m., right, UTC plus 2, which is actually, you know, the beginning of Monday in this time zone. So Eastern Standard Time is six hours behind the actual time. That alone is, you know, mind-blowing. Great. I've said this before though, but people just, you know, don't listen. So yes, we will be waiting, right, to see this week's high, you know, be projected over the previous week's high, right? So now we will be focusing on last week's data, right? Last week's low and last week's high. That's what we will be doing. So currently again, right, we are within range, range-bound price action for the British pound. And usually the asset class, you know, which is, which has the, you know, most unclear price action, usually tends to give us the most explosive move, right? So here you'd be looking at, oh, this is garbage, right? I don't want to see the pound. I want to be looking at the dollar or the Euro due to the fact that it looks like it's trending more, when, you know, this is actually where you will get the most explosive move, you know, funny, isn't it?
So whenever we see, you know, one of these, one of these highs or lows taken out, right, and if it's confirmed with sequential SMT, for example, if there is sequential SMT, you know, during the weekly cycle, just comprised of days, right, whether it's between Wednesday and Thursday or Thursday and Friday, watch. Once it is sequential SMT, you just need to wait for sequential SMT to form within the daily cycle, which is comprised of the four sessions, right? And then that will give you, you know, the famous one shot, one kill, right? That trade that, you know, captures most, if not all, of the weekly cycle's range. So yes, the best asset to look at right now in regards to the high impact market is the pound due to the fact that it is the most unclear, right? So it should expand more whenever it's ready to expand, right?
Right here, you can see, right, we're just within a tight range. This is done on purpose, right? To keep you away from this. They, they want you to focus here. They don't, they don't want you to catch the expansive move. But whenever you see price like this, this is the, you know, the best time to sit and plan what to do, right? If you ever see the Euro doing this, the ES doing this, the Nasdaq doing this, that's good. That's, that's good. Don't sit around and be like, oh no, like this is garbage price action, I hate this. No, you should love this because this is a sign that expansion is coming. And after this sign, there's another sign. What is it? You already know. It's stage one, sequential SMT, right? That's it.
Looking at the, oh, there we have. I already have sequence, sequence here, but we have SMT. This is not sequential, this is SMT right here. So this week, for sure, let's see. Did sequential? This is showing weakness. So here, this is the high of the Nasdaq, right? And we took out the high of the previous week already in regards to the price action of the S&P 500, right? Or above all-time highs right now. Could see price trend higher, consolidate, wake up, which could happen at FOMC, not FOMC, during the non-farm payroll this Friday. Or that price action could just be, you know, continuation of whichever day causes sequential SMT, right? So due to the fact that we, you know, the all-time high currently for the ES is was formed today, right, during this week, right? You would, you know, be toning down. So you would be going down to the weekly cycle, right? And when you're looking at the weekly cycle, you need the one-hour time frame, right? Weekly cycle, one-hour time frame. That's how you do it. So on this candle, we took out last week's high immediately, right? We did that. We did that here as well, but we don't take out last week's high. But we took out Thursday's high here. We took out Thursday's high as well. So once we see consolidation, you know, that would be good, right? Currently, there is, you know, nothing to do. You don't want to go in right now and, you know, press a button. You can see we have relatively equal lows here, right here as well, and we have some relatively equal lows here as well. But we need volatility, right? Then we need that volatility to be confirmed by sequential SMT, which would give us, you know, a reason to believe in a reversal. Currently, everything, you know, is setting up to, it's looking very interesting, but nothing to do as well. And why is that? Because there is no sequence of SMT, right?
Last week, right, we wanted to see price, you know, gravitate to these highs. You can see that it happened here for the S&P 500. It, it was about to happen for the Dow, right? And whenever we say we want to see price gravitate towards the level, that's all we mean. It doesn't need to breach the level, right? Because right here, we had sequential SMT, as you guys can see, right? We had sequential SMT right here between Tuesday and Wednesday. So Wednesday, right, reacted the rejection block, and we had the Nasdaq breaching this low, right? Remember that normally the asset class which forms the failure swing will expand more, and we saw that happen, right here, right? And, you know, we expected price to, well, basically reverse on Thursday, but it happened on Wednesday, just close enough, right? Then here, we had, you know, SMT again, but right, this is a failure swing and expanded upwards. Price action is usually like this, you know, at the end of Q1, right, where you will have the low of the week being formed by, you know, multiple, you know, being formed on different days. So here you had the low of the week, right, Tuesday, and then here you have it on Wednesday, right? But here, right, the failure swing, it did not reach the rejection block, which was another form of SMT due to the fact that it happened here. So last week, yes, it was difficult to navigate, you know, this price action, but, you know, we approached it with caution for a reason, right? And this is why sequential SMT helps you because if there's, you know, there's no sequential SMT, you would not enter, right? You would not enter.
And something else that you must understand, right? This is the weekly cycle for a sequential, sequential SMT to be confirmed, right? And you don't know this yet, right? For the weekly cycle, you need to see a one-hour close, not a 15-minute close, not a four-hour close, a one-hour close, right? Because the one-hour time frame is linked to the weekly cycle, which is comprised of days. And what does, you know, you get? What do you get from that? From that, you get that for the, you know, higher of the day, whenever I'm looking for the higher of the day, I want to see a close, you know, a 15-minute close. Let not a wick above it. It can be a one-hour wick, but it must be a 15-minute close. When you're looking through the daily cycle, when you're looking at the weekly cycle, what must you see? Not a, not a four-hour wick, right? This, right here, it's not it. You want to go to the one-hour time frame and look. If you see a close, so if you're here, right, 12 o'clock, you see a close here, and you see this close right here, right? Immediately, you begin to search for a lower time frame sequence, and that's how you'll do it, right?
This is very important, right? Even for 90-minute cycle sequence SMT, what do you look for? What would be, you know, this would, you know, be stage three, actually, or it could be four, depending on how much sequential SMTs you're waiting for for your specific model, right? It's like a chain reaction. You have sequential SMT, price closes here above this low, then it closes here below this low, then price consolidates a bit, you know, then it expands, and that's what happens, right? So let's go through again. Micro time frame, which close do you need? Which time frame close do you need above price action above a high? If there is very sequence to SMT and vice versa for a bullish sequence SMT, you need a one-minute close, 90-minute cycle, a five-minute close, the daily cycle, which is comprised of four sessions, a 15-minute close. This will help you, right? Sometimes you just see price wick down, close here. Remember, wicks are gaps. That's why we're focusing on closes. The algorithm doesn't see the candles, sees the closes, right? So to the algorithm, this is what, you know, it would look like. And I'll try to see how good I can do this, right? Can I remove the candles? This is what it looks like, right? It sees the closes. So it doesn't see, you know, candles. It doesn't see the wicks. It's just the closes that matters to it, right? So price closed here, then it just closed here. That's what the algorithm recognizes as sequential SMT, you know, during the specific times here, right? We have price closing here and here. The algorithm doesn't give a about wicks. It's the closes. You can see that here we had a higher close here, we had a lower close, right? You can see that here we had, you know, price closing below this close right here. And it must be, listen, it must happen on specific time frames. And this is why it won't work for anyone, right? Because this is literally what algorithm sees, right? If it's a, you know, a weekly cycle sequence SMT, price closes here Wednesday, price closes here Wednesday, for example. Well, I'll just use what's in the chart, okay? Price closes here Tuesday, right? But closes higher on Wednesday, okay? Price closes here Tuesday, but closes lower on Wednesday. That is the cracking correlation between the closes, the closures. But it must be on one time frame because the one-hour time frame is linked to the weekly time frame, not the 15-minute, not the one-minute, right? You're looking for random 55-minute closures, you know, below regards to the weekly cycle, it won't work. This is when it works, right? This is when it works. So this is what the algorithm sees, right? It doesn't see wicks. It doesn't care about wicks. Wicks are gaps. Just runs through wicks. Wicks are just, you know, are just, it's just manipulation. Even here, right? Even here, when we had SMT here, what happened? We closed below this close, but here we did not close below this one, right? And then what did we do at the beginning of this week? We expand. But it must be a one-hour close, right? If you look here, right, it must be a one-hour close because sometimes you look at, for example, right, this wouldn't be evident on the daily time frame, and at times it won't be evident on the four-hour time frame, such as, you know, here where you had, you know, price fail to close below here. Overall, it's just better to use the actual time frame that price, you know, is synchronized to, right? That's the literal time frame that was made for the weekly cycle in my opinion, right? It's, of course, it's a theory, right? But this is what I believe and this is what I, you know, found to be working. And this is very important, right? Because people are going to be out there, if they, you know, someone started in the first week or the first month, the first two months, they just left, they're not going to understand this. They're going to be like, why isn't this working? Okay, price wicked below, but the sequential SMT did hold. Why? This is why, right? And this is why it is, in my opinion, you know, better to trade, you know, the weekly cycle and the daily cycle rather than trading the, you know, micro cycles. First of all, the higher time frame cycle that, you know, the sequential SMT occurs on, that's the most expansion that you will get. And also, whenever you have a closure, right, like this, right here, and this is like just introducing you to, you know, something that we will speak about as we go along, right? So here, right, this was the low of London. This was the closure, was the low of New York. So right here, we had sequential SMT again, right? On Wednesday, Wednesday. So here we had price taken this low out, right? And leaving this one. And this is why closures are important. And remember, we're using the one-hour time frame, right? So even due to the fact that we had price close here, we could enter, but and put your stop here and not expect price to go below here. Why? Because there was already a closure here below this low, right? Why would you expect price to expand more here? Due to the fact that this is the failure swing, right? And it did not take out this low. Usually, right, whenever price is going to expand like this, you have sequential SMT occurring, right? Which did occur, right? With this leg down, we had two sequ, we had two, you know, price legs, you know, being, you know, formed here and here, right? And due to the fact that the higher time frame sequence of SMT already occurred, right? There are times when you will not need this to happen as long as there is a stop run, right? Within a sequence, for example, New York taking out the London session. To be honest, I'm making this clear, but don't really want to make it clear because like some of you guys are thieves, right? And you know, no one ever heard about this before, right? Specific closures, yeah, specific time frames during specific cycles. It's all time. It's okay. So we need price to close here at this time on this specific time frame below this specific close. Basically, what are wicks? They're just distractions. Order blocks, they're just distractions. Breakers, they're just distractions. It's liquidity, opens, closes, closures, and gaps. That's all that matters. That's all that matters. All that matters, right?
Let me see if where do we, where do we go to change the symbol? I don't even remember. Go to change this thing. Yeah, I don't know. I'm trying to like change it to what's it called again? The bar chart. Anyways, yeah, you get what I'm talking about. I'll figure it out some other time. Oh, here it is. Oh my God, that's insane. Thank you. So here, right, you can see that actually, you know, the best thing, you know, to look for this, if you don't want to get confused, is you can use the bar chart, right? Which is why, you know, the old traders usually use these, right? It's better. Wicks don't matter at all, right? You need to be focused on closures, specific closures here, right? You can see that we have equal lows here, and here we have a failure swing, and also here we have a failure swing. So usually, right, I look at the, this is the T bonds futures, 10-year notes, and the five-year notes, right? Usually, I'm looking at, you know, these three comparing them to each other. Then, you know, I will go to the Forex market, right? The, and then after that, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow. So there are three trials that you need, right? And it shouldn't be hard for you to understand. It doesn't matter if you know, you don't need to know what they mean, right? Uh, so these markets right now in front of me, they control the interest rate markets. The interest rate markets control the dollar. The dollar's price action, you know, along with the interest rate market, controls whatever the stock indices do. So everything revolves around this market right here that we're looking at. Whenever this market goes up, as you guys can see here, we have price going up as well, right? So these markets usually move lockstep. These markets unless, you know, there's a cracking correlation where you have one trending higher, one trending lower, which usually, you know, leads to unclear price action, right? And the same way how you read these markets, the same way how you read these, right? Price fractal, right? And what do you look for? You still look for sequential SMT, right? Higher time frame following a lower time frame must be closures. So here, look, right? It must be closures. You can see that the dollar is pretty unclear right now. We need volatility, right? We need a high or low to be taken out before we can do anything. And the same thing goes for the stock indices.
So I hope that you guys found something valuable from today. I hope that you learned something. This one was, you know, you, well, they're getting pretty long, to be honest, right? At first, right, it was me trying to be more protective, but now it's like, okay, we're down into going into the fourth month, so it's time to just give the sauce. I don't care what happens, right? And that would be how it is. We will be having, you know, live, you know, lives where we basically just sit down, observe charts, me telling you what I expect to happen, right? Sometimes, most of the times, you know, we will be looking for sequential SMT forming, and I'll be choosing at least one or two days out of the week, the day which, you know, should have the best price action. You know, usually it will be a day after we have choppy price action because remember, unclear price action leads to clear price action. Whenever you see choppy price action, you should be happy. Whenever you see trending price action, like price just going up, up, up, up, up, up, that's when you will have your worst entries, right? So I hope that you found something useful from today, and I hope that you take into consideration of, you know, what I said about the closures. They're very important. So make sure you wrote that down. Sequential SMT, what confirms SMT, what's the cheat code for specific closures and specific time frames, right? That's it. Hope that you have a wonderful day. Good night.
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All you want to me is a B obsession.
I am theing oning the street.
How many times can I ask you?
How how many days can I go without you?
Show you.
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The distance is a killer.
The of imp.
How many days can I go without?
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Keep.
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Show.
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