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[music] >> As dawn broke across London on June 24th, 2016, there was little indication that a political storm had just rocked the British Isles. >> [music] >> It was, in fact, a mild midsummer morning when a bleary-eyed Nigel Farage, the face of Britain's leave movement, stood in front of Westminster Abbey and declared absolute victory.
"There are 17 million people that voted for Brexit. It's a victory for ordinary people, decent people. And I'm proud of everybody that had the courage in the face of all the threats, everything they were told, they had the guts to stand up and do the right thing."
As 17 million leavers, not to mention US presidential candidate Donald Mr. Brexit Trump, celebrated an unshackled Britain, millions of others feared that a narrow majority had just voted for the greatest national act of self-harm in modern history. A decade later, has Brexit [music] delivered on its promises? If the goal was to restore British sovereignty, then the answer is yes. Britain now controls its own immigration policy, its trade agreements, and its regulations. Nor did the immediate recession that British Treasury forecasters warned of come to pass.
But the referendum was also supposed to unlock faster economic growth, bring about greater prosperity, and create, and I quote, "Singapore on the Thames." And in that respect, Brexit has been a right mess. Nearly every major indicator today concludes that Brexit has left Britain poorer than it otherwise would have been. The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility, yes, that's a thing, estimates a long-run hit to GDP of about 4%. Other economists put the loss at 6 to 8% of GDP per person. Business investment is estimated to be nearly 18% lower than if Britain had remained in the EU.
Politically, Brexit settled nothing. Britain has had seven prime ministers since the referendum, about as many as in the previous 40 years. Today, 57% of Britons say leaving the EU was the wrong decision. Nearly 2/3 believe Brexit has indeed damaged the economy. Even immigration, the defining issue of the referendum, has taken an unexpected turn. Governments across Europe have embraced tougher border and asylum policies, leaving the EU more aligned on immigration than many Brexit supporters could have imagined possible. And Europe never followed Britain out the door. There was no Frexit, no Nexit, no Italexit. Instead, Russia's invasion of Ukraine brought the EU closer together, deepening cooperation on defense, and paving the way for new member states.
But 10 years on, if you ask the average Britain what gets their knickers in a twist, they are likely to complain about how little of any of this was thought through. Take Scott Bishop. He's a Brexit supporter in 2016, interviewed on the morning the referendum passed.
"There surely is a plan in place. They would They would have been a robust plan in place. So, we didn't just sit there and go, 'You know what we're going to do? We're going to Brexit.' What did they call it? Brexit. 'Let's get out now.' The majority spoke. The country spoke. We want out, so they left."
"There surely is a plan in place. Surely." If you listen closely, you'll notice that the gentleman never really finishes his thought. Neither, we know now, did Britain's leaders. What could possibly go wrong? They all seem to be asking, and it turns out quite a bit. >> [music]