Transcription
We have Jordan as a new character. We have Saudi Arabia, which is an old character but new in terms of just starting operations with the United States to attack militia forces in Iraq. He would likely see that if the situation is allowed to continue like this, it will never end. It has no end, so he will have to choose one side to end it. And between the Iran side and the US-Israel side, Saudi Arabia must choose the US-Israel, of course, because this is its long-standing alliance. But why choose to fire rockets into Iraq? Why not fire into Iran? Iran supports the Houthi armed forces. The United Arab Emirates supports the southern forces. And what is observed is that even Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates support different sides, different factions. Therefore, the Bab el-Mandeb strait is very important for navigation. And the importance of Bab el-Mandeb is: 1. Saudi Arabia has an oil pipeline that goes there as an alternative if the Strait of Hormuz is not accessible. But if the Houthis close it, it cannot be accessed. And importantly, the Bab el-Mandeb strait is not just a sea route that reaches the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean, and reaches Asia. It also goes upwards through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean Sea, which is the market of Europe. That is the current situation. And from what has been told, you have probably noticed that it is expanding, it is complex, the characters are increasing. Our goal is to bring this channel to 1 million subscribers. >> Currently, we are in the process of dismantling the current world order. >> Therefore, at the international level, it is very dangerous. >> And if you don't want to miss good content, please subscribe. >> For the past 2 years, if our financial institution system has remained strong, we will not be in a bad situation. >> For those who want to upgrade their knowledge in depth, we now have YouTube Membership. Just subscribe, and you will receive exclusive content and seminar viewing rights from [Music] Trader KP and Team Business Tomorrow. >> Currently, it is still a conflict that the professor sees as an attempt to gain an advantage in negotiations or war, which is beyond control. >> It will still be a period of gaining an advantage, but in what form and for what purpose, we need to discuss first what the objective of each side is, what they want. If I may, I would like to go back a bit to the MOU that was torn up, implicitly torn up. That MOU was fragile because it was very rushed. Many clauses in the MOU were complex, but the most problematic clause was the one stating that the US would allow Iran and Qatar to discuss and agree on managing the Strait of Hormuz during a 60-day ceasefire. And in that clause, it was also stated that it must be in accordance with international rules and regulations. These two sentences contradict each other. The first benefit, Iran interprets it as, okay, let me manage it, let me manage it myself, so I will set the management rules myself. But how does the US interpret the latter sentence? Regardless, it must be in accordance with international rules and regulations, which means that any ship can sail in any lane, regardless of the country. But Iran did not see it that way. When a ship tried to enter and did not listen to Iran's instructions to sail in this lane, that lane, the ship went to sail in another lane, so Iran fired at it. Therefore, it ignited another round of firing. That is the problem with the MOU. Now we need to understand the issues of each country internally. Look at Iran, for example. In Iran, it is now very clear that the military controls the situation, not the civilian side. The civilian side, the President of Iran, is the one trying to negotiate. But the military side, led by Gholamreza Baghaei, who is the Speaker of Parliament, but also a former commander of the Iranian Air Force, and Fereydoun Abbasi, a senior general, formerly the commander of the Quds Force. The Quds Force is similar to the CIA, which is an intelligence unit and is closely linked to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, and the Houthis in Yemen. This group will not agree to end the war because they do not believe Trump's words. They do not believe that Trump can genuinely establish the $300 billion fund mentioned in the MOU. Therefore, they want to continue fighting. Now, what are their main objectives in continuing to fight? 1. Of course, they want to develop nuclear weapons because they believe this is the best way to defend their country. 2. They want to completely control the Strait of Hormuz and collect passage fees from all cargo ships, regardless of their country of origin, passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Both of these things are unacceptable to the US-Israel side. Therefore, they will continue to fight. But what is interesting is that now we have new characters. We have Ukraine as a new character. We have Jordan as a new character. We have Saudi Arabia, which is an old character but new in terms of just starting operations with the United States to attack militia forces in Iraq. Now, let's understand each character. Ukraine currently doesn't have much beyond what they say, if we believe them. That is, firing at Iranian ships is to intercept resources that Iran will send to Russia, with which Ukraine and Russia are at war. And Russia and Iran are allies. This is a fact that cannot be disputed. Therefore, it is possible that Ukraine only wants this, which is to intercept the sending of weapons and resources to Russia. That new character is finished. Another new character, Jordan, is quite interesting. Let me go back and talk about Jordan's history a bit to explain why it is being drawn into this war now. Jordan is a very small country and not rich in oil like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, or Oman. It is not rich in oil. Jordan is a Middle Eastern country that accepts Israel's existence. Jordan is a Middle Eastern country that has, you could say, dedicated itself to the US side more than Saudi Arabia, more than Qatar, more than the UAE, and more than Israel. We cannot say Israel has dedicated itself to the US because we don't know who is the master of whom between the birth of the moon and the sun. But let's consider it a small country that can negotiate with a superpower like the US on equal terms. Let's put it that way. But Jordan has dedicated itself. The question is, why has it dedicated itself? The answer is that Jordan has had problems with Palestinian refugees entering its country. Jordan has a very small population. In the past, refugees outnumbered the population. Jordan is concerned that its country will become like Lebanon. Lebanon used to have more Christians than Muslims. But due to the large number of Palestinian refugees, the Muslim population has steadily increased, leading to a civil war. And to this day, there are still Palestinian Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, which can be said to be not a state within a state, but a parallel state. Therefore, Lebanon is in a terrible state. That is what Jordan does not want to happen in its country. Therefore, it stands with the US side, the Israel side. It may not say it openly, but its actions are quite in that direction. Therefore, because it has fully dedicated itself, Jordan has three important US military bases. They are all air bases. The third base may not need to be called a base because it is very small. Let's call it Tower 22. It is a tower, a small force, but it is very important because it is located on the Syrian-Iraqi border. And it is a tower used to coordinate the air defense system and air strike system of US forces in that region. And this is what Iran is trying to attack. The question is, why is Iran trying to attack Jordan, and has it partially succeeded, killing American soldiers at a base in Jordan? The answer is that if Iran's objective now is to completely control the strait, collect passage fees, and produce nuclear weapons, how will it achieve this? The answer for them is not that it will succeed, not that it will work, not that it is a good thing, but the answer for them is to expand the war and inflict as much pain as possible on the US, and to destroy the US military infrastructure in the Middle East as much as possible. And ultimately, they believe that no matter how many US soldiers die, no matter how many tens or hundreds of billions of US dollars are spent, this will multiply. Eventually, the US will have to give in because they believe that the US cannot tolerate pain as much as Iran can tolerate pain. Now, let's move on to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has been quiet lately, letting Iran continue to attack US bases in its country. At the funeral of Iran's former spiritual leader, Saudi Arabia sent a representative. Therefore, Saudi Arabia's attack on armed forces in Iraq can be analyzed as Trump being able to persuade Saudi Arabia to join the war. Therefore, this is a disadvantage for Iran. 91. Why did Saudi Arabia join the operation now? The answer is probably difficult to find, but if we analyze it, they would likely see that if the situation is allowed to continue like this, it will never end. It has no end, so they will have to choose one side to end it. And between the Iran side and the US-Israel side, Saudi Arabia must choose the US-Israel, of course, because this is its long-standing alliance. The US has bases in its country. But why choose to fire rockets into Iraq? Why not fire into Iran? That is, they do not want to confront Iran directly yet. But why fire into Iraq? We need to understand Iraq again. Iraq's population is mostly Shia, about 65%. The Shia sect is the same sect as Iran. The remaining minority are Sunni. >> But in Iraq's history, from the monarchy to the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein, the Sunni minority has always ruled the Shia majority. Until now. Therefore, the armed forces in Iraq that they are firing at now are Shia forces that provide assistance to Iran, and Iran also provides assistance to them. Therefore, they chose to attack there. >> Beyond that, let's move to the Bab el-Mandeb strait again. Saudi Arabia has military operations there. The important country in that strait is Yemen. Yemen is also interesting. Yemen is currently divided into three parts. Saudi Arabia supports the current government. Iran supports the Houthi armed forces. The United Arab Emirates supports the southern forces, and they are fighting a civil war. And what is observed is that even Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates support different sides, different factions. Therefore, the Bab el-Mandeb strait is very important for navigation. Because the Houthis can fire rockets and close the strait, just like Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz. And the importance of Bab el-Mandeb is: 1. Saudi Arabia has an oil pipeline that goes there as an alternative if the Strait of Hormuz is not accessible. But if the Houthis close it, it cannot be accessed. And importantly, the Bab el-Mandeb strait is not just a sea route that reaches the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean, and reaches Asia. It also goes upwards through the Gulf of Aden, through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean Sea, which is the market of Europe. >> Therefore, it can be closed in two ways. >> Therefore, as far as I can remember, this is the current situation. And from what has been told, you have probably noticed that it is expanding, it is complex, the characters are increasing. Not only are there country characters, but there are also armed force characters that are not affiliated with any country. Therefore, this matter is very difficult to resolve. >> Thank you everyone for following us all along. Our goal is to bring this channel to 1 million subscribers to expand the society of learning in economics, business, and investment. We now have YouTube Membership. Just subscribe, and you will receive exclusive content and seminar viewing rights from [Music] PRP and Team Business Tomorrow. Please subscribe.