Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Friday, October 3, 2025, with a cryptomap still green. It's madness since Monday, the first day of the week. It's as if investors had waited for September to end, October to arrive, and boom, it's directly a straight-line sprint. And look at this at the Bitcoin ETF level. It's madness. 518 million bought on Monday, 429 million Tuesday, 675 million Wednesday, 627,000 W. What's happening? What happened to them? It's a frenzy. A week, two weeks ago, nobody wanted Bitcoin. Everyone was into Ethereum. Too great. And Bitcoin, purchases were at zero. And now, suddenly, well, even though the American economy is on fire. Ah, it doesn't matter. Buy Bitcoin, it's good news for us, we are happy of course. So the all-green map here is of course pleasing. The ETFs and we haven't thrown away too much Ethereum, have we? 546 million Monday, 127 Tuesday, 80 Thursday, 307 yesterday, well, 380 Wednesday, then 307 yesterday, Thursday. So it's pretty good and we'll see tomorrow the week's balance sheet, but it will be very good. And here we see that investors are rather in greed. Has it nibbled away to extreme greed and then poof, back to fear, correction? Ah, that remains possible. So the question we will ask ourselves today is: will the "to the moon" continue? Is it off to even more "to the moon"? Is it off to even more "to"? Could there be a small, not very, very pretty reversal, knowing that a very important macro figure has been released, the only one released today because the American government is closed, everyone is at home. Well, and so it's the services PMI index which measures, roughly, I sent you a post on social media, the activity of the service sector which represents 3/4 of American GDP. We'll look at that in 5 minutes. I'll do a quick tour of the altcoins that have been doing well since Wednesday, October 1st, boom, October 2nd, boom. Well, today it's a little, a little less pretty. Yes, it's a bit of a doji, we call it a doji, a candle of uncertainty. Be careful with that. It's hitting a volume profile zone here that has been heavily worked, where investors are taking profits. I shared it with you today on social media. You have to be careful. Whether it's on Twitter, Instagram, or Telegram, there are quite a few investors who have brought Bitcoin back to the exchanges. A profit-taking is happening, but it's as usual. Okay, profit-taking, but if the buying pressure, and we see that the ETFs are buying a lot, is greater than the selling pressure, it will continue to push. If the selling pressure is greater than the buying pressure, boom, it will fall back. So for now, it's pretty good. Uh, on the altcoins, let's not forget that as long as we don't break 917, here will be the reversal to look for below 763. In short, altcoins for now are fine, nothing special. It's just ending a slightly mixed Friday. And for our beloved Bitcoin, it's the same music, the same joke. So, I'll explain the scenario. First scenario, I'll do it quickly because some people haven't understood everything. It was little A, little B, little C, and we'll directly break below 105, well, below 107, and it'll take off again. Scenario 1, we throw it in the trash because we broke this high. So scenario 1 is no more. Now, for scenario 2, or even 3. Scenario 2, I've been talking about it for weeks, it's simply that wave B is not just this, B, and then it's C. Wave B decomposes into three parts. Little A, little B, little C. And as long as it doesn't break 124, it will be boom, wave C here to go look below 107, still relevant. Unless wave B nibbles, nibbles, nibbles and goes to 124. In that case, it will be a running. Little A, little B, little C. It will be the big B for this big A. And boom, it will be a big C. But it won't break 107 because if we break the record of 124 and some, we won't go look for 107, it will stop before. Potentially, it can be very attracted to the gap which is at 110990, the gap on futures contracts. Well, so, is there a third scenario of "going to the moon"? Yes, a rare scenario, but it remains possible, it's the contracting flat here like this with an A, a B, a C, a contracting structure. A contracting flat is very rare. 5% probability, roughly, you see, and boom, direct explosion, 132, 133, 140, 150, 200, 300, wherever you want. Up to here, that's the correction. There won't be a big C. The C is here, there won't be a C later, it's that it takes off directly. Scenario number 3, the contracting one. Well, these are quite rare structures, but they remain possible. Another thing that tells us, well, contracting reduces probability, but this is just my opinion, is that we have this gap at 110990 and the market, gaps are often meant to be closed, 80, 99% of the time they are meant to be closed. It's been very rare for gaps since Bitcoin existed. There have been hundreds and hundreds of gaps. How many exactly have not been closed so far? Well, there were three, and we've left two in recent months, you see. So, since Bitcoin left zero to 124,000, there have been three gaps. We left 9000, 11000, and 20000. That's what we left behind. Now there are 92 and 110. The 92 and 110 were created a few months ago, not very long ago. Well, so to tell you, it's very rare for gaps not to be filled. So those who think "Yes, the gap at 92 and the gap here, 92, the gap at 110, it's okay, we won't close it." Ah, there's a very low probability of not closing them. I think you should forget about that. So, here are the different scenarios. So if Bitcoin makes a new all-time high and pushes 126, 127, it has the right to, well, it will just mean that after that there will be a pullback that will surely, I think, just look for the gap and it will take off again. The gap for 92. Well, maybe the next bull market, or I don't know. We'll see. Well, for now, we are on the upper Bollinger band. Everything will be decided here. "To the moon" is tomorrow or Monday, rather, when the professionals will be there. If we have a weekend to move, as usual, if this upper band at 121 explodes, the spread will decrease, and boom, Bitcoin is off to the moon. Is that possible? Yes, the bulls are there. Listen, there's momentum. So for now, it's very good. Moreover, there's liquidity being placed because people are shorting, shorting, shorting. So there are big leverage shorts up to around 123,000. So don't be surprised if Bitcoin says hello to 123,000. Or even a Bitcoin that says hello to 125, making a new all-time high. Don't be surprised anymore. That's because there are big leverages here. There are still some short liquidations. There are 3 billion dollars to be captured, let's say at 125,000. On the other hand, where we need to be careful, well, there are almost 15 billion dollars to be captured below 107. So 3 billion north, 15 billion south. What will the market do? Well, it will go where it wants, right? Knowing that in the south, well, maybe it will be a little more appealing after a while. Ethereum, a small candle of uncertainty today, but it has recovered its 5-day moving average at 4396. Good news, Ethereum to the moon, it needs to break this upper band at 4759, and boom, it will take off. For now, it has broken 52 here, it's good. The bulls are there, it's good. The structure is like Bitcoin here. As long as it doesn't break 4765 here, be careful not to go back below 4834. We need to validate a small regular, and then it will take off again. All upwards. So the scenarios haven't changed for now, it's still the same regarding liquidity, you see there's a little bit on Ethereum but not much to capture at 4006, you see, there are no big leverages, they are rather to the south, big leverages on Ethereum here. Bam, bam, bam, bam. Down to $4,000, there's a little over 8 billion. If it goes to 4006, there are 2 billion. So you see the difference, it's like Bitcoin, right? Uh, Bitcoin, it's 3 billion south, 15, uh, 3 billion north at 125,000, 15 billion south. There's 5 times more to the south than to the north. Ethereum, well, there's four times more to the south than to the north. Well, the market is unpredictable, but that must surely attract it a little, I think. So, can it nibble Ethereum up to 4006? Yes. 4007, why not, if it really wants to eat small crumbs, but well, there's still a lot to the south. Now, it doesn't have a gap. Bitcoin has a gap at 110996 to aim for, but it's much further away. The next gap is 2253. So there's time. Solana yesterday, a nice green candle, the kijun held at 222. Well done. Today, a small red candle, but nothing significant. It's okay. Here, the next bullish target for Solana is the upper Bollinger band at $255. If it breaks $255, it's off, Solana to the moon. Can it? Yes, there's no divergence for now, it's okay. We have the bulls coming back, regaining momentum, so it's pretty good. Now, as long as Solana doesn't break 253, it can make a small, a small regular to aim for 186 or even 173 below this wick before taking off again. In short, everything is good. I'll finish with XRP and I'll give you my conclusion. Okay. So, Solana, well, it can nibble, there are big leverages up to around $238. It can nibble. Sorry, let me put the liquidations back, please. Calculate the liquidations. Thank you. Well, and so it can nibble if it wants up to 242, why not, right? Yes, 242, 243, there's a little less than 600 million. Now, to the south, if it goes to $204, there's almost 1.8 billion, so there's always more to the south. So, well, it doesn't change, that's why we need to be cautious. And to finish, XRP, a small doji candle today. Some call them candles of uncertainty, some call them candles of reversal too. The fact that when you push and you have a candle like this in a cross, it's like, oh, this smells like a reversal. Some do this, but I'm not a big fan. I call them candles of candles, candles of uncertainty. The market doesn't really know where to go. Well, this shows well the fact that anyway the American economy, there's a shutdown and it doesn't know where it is. So for now, the bulls are there, there's momentum, RSI 50 crossover, bullish on the MACD. It's pretty good. So if XRP continues to push and goes above 313. Next target is 338. "To the moon," you need to break 314. The upper Bollinger band, if it breaks 314, which is this high, you see, well, boom, it will aim for at least 338. The short zone at the liquidity level for XRP to the north, there are still big leverages placed up to around 312, but it can continue to eat up to around 321 maximum, right? 321 is 200 million dollars. On the other hand, to the south, there's three times more, there's 600 million at the south, at the south, you see. So in short, is it good today? Yes, it's good. Good, it's very good. The ETFs are buying a lot of Bitcoin, buying Ethereum, it's pushing, there's no bearish divergence, there's momentum, so everything is good. The only small drawback I would mention to be careful about is still all this liquidity at the bottom plus the gap at 110. That's it, just those two things. If there wasn't all this liquidity at the bottom, meaning if everything that was at the bottom for everyone was at the top, then I would tell you there are very few reasons to reverse. Here, there are many, many more probabilities of going straight "to the moon" if the liquidity in the south was in the north. Unfortunately, everything is good, but the bulk of the liquidity is in the south with this gap that is still attractive. So that's why you need to stay a little defensive, meaning, can Bitcoin explode now, 125, 130, 140? It can. That would mean that ultimately the market is not interested in the liquidity in the south, or it's too expensive to go there, or the buying pressure is so strong that the selling pressure is overwhelmed by a tsunami of buying pressure. That remains very possible. Okay. It's just that, in short, the fact that there's all this at the bottom for everyone, whether it's for Bitcoin, for Ethereum, for Solana, for XRP, it slightly reduces the probabilities of a direct "to the moon." If this liquidity in the south wasn't there, it would strongly increase the probabilities of going directly "to the moon." So that's the idea. Well, regarding the macro, so why is Wall Street happy, everything in the green? Why is the stock market happy? Today, we had an ISM services PMI figure. It represents 10% of American GDP. The services sector is pretty much everything. Everything that isn't big manufacturing, big factories, that's it, if you want, a big one. And so it came out exactly at 50. But what a coincidence, I want to say. Why? Below 50 means the economy is, it's a very strong sign that the economy is in recession. Here, we would say stagflation because inflation is very high. But at 50. I laughed when I saw 50. The first thing I thought was, personally, okay, I think they're fooling us, they're fooling us. In these speeches, he will never say the word recession, stagflation, even though the American economy is in full stagflation, which is worse than recession, it's a recession with inflation that is increasing. Well, and so he will never say that word, and here the figure, they put it at 50, they won't put it at 49.9 because at 49.9 you know very well that you have a lot of traditional economists and financiers who will talk about recession in the economic newspapers, recession, services PMI below 50, that's it, not at all. No, they put it at 50, so you can't say recession, well no, 50 is, it's in between. What a big joke. Well, so why are investors happy here? Why is it going up? Because since the services PMI shows that things are not going well at all, it strongly supports the fact that employment is not going well at all, but it increases the probabilities of interest rate cuts, simply to support the economy. So bad news for the US economy equals good news for interest rate cuts. All the bad economic figures for the US are good for the market because the market says, ah, even more reasons to have interest rate cuts. That's all. And so here Wall Street is happy. The S&P 500 continues its record "to the moon." The Nasdaq too, the Dow Jones too, the stock markets too, European tech too. After that, the Asian markets, well, they closed, they didn't have this figure, but they are doing pretty well. So everyone is pushing, gold, silver, in fact, everyone is pushing. Look at this, even copper is exploding. There's money for everyone. Except for the barrel. Well, the barrel understood well that recessions, stagflations, consume less barrels. So, well, it's needed, and less happy. All these crypto stocks, Coinbase, MicroStrategy, they are pushing, the miners are all pushing, you see. Everyone is happy. In the bond market, there's a little selling of US 10-year bonds here, it's a driver, but it's not much. They are also buying here, we see bonds, so it's going into some defensive stocks and the dollar a little bit. So in short, they are buying everything, and what's interesting is that they are buying everything, which especially means they don't want to be in dollars, because if they start buying everything, it means you have a part of investors who are in "oh my god, caution, it's not going well." There's the clan of investors, rather "oh my god." They are the ones who say, "Well, recession, stagflation, it's not good for the economy. I'm buying defensive stocks, meaning I'm buying precious metals, I'm buying bonds. These are stocks that, if there's a severe drop in the economy or the market, or if it goes into severe recession, they are more defensive." Then on the other hand, there are the bullish people, they are thinking, the economy is not going well at all, we're going to have a lot of interest rate cuts, that will boost the economy, that will boost companies, and then there will be good quarterly results, and then simply everything will explode with the interest rate cuts. And so we have these two types of investors, and both are together. That's it, I don't know if it's half and half or not, but in any case, both are there. Many are buying stocks because stocks are constantly going "to the moon." Many are buying defensive stocks because bonds are constantly going "to the moon." And we also see that on the US 10-year, well, they are buying back quite a few bonds here since the end of last week, you see. So, what would be good to see the market go even more "to the moon"? Well, it would be to see people selling bonds here because they would not trust the economy, they would demand higher rates, and so the money leaving the bond market would come back even more into the stock and crypto markets. So, we will follow all of this. So, ultimately, today, bad news for the American economy equals good news for the markets, good news also for cryptos. So it's very good. Can cryptos continue to push? Yes, clearly. We just need to be careful about all this liquidity in the south and the gap that could be sought, perhaps later. It's perhaps later, it's perhaps not right away. Well, I'm sending kisses. Thanks for listening, and I'll see you next time. Bye bye. [Music]