Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review, we will talk about BTC. We had economic announcements that have been released. We will see how the market reacted following the announcements. Is it good or not? We will of course talk about altcoins that are slightly outperforming BTC and we will analyze some altcoins that were requested for analysis. I noted Auction, LTC, and IO. Before I start, those who are not subscribed, do not hesitate to subscribe to the trader letter every Sunday. So this Sunday, I send out, as every week, a unique email where I share my market vision, my analysis on a trade, advice, psychology, technical analysis, whatever. I share all the knowledge I have every Sunday. It's between 3 and 5 minutes of reading but it's packed with value. We get straight to the point. No fluff and it clearly allows you to progress. So if that interests you, I invite you to click on the first link in the description. Enter your email and join the more than 1000 traders already subscribed. There are even more than 1000 now. I should update it. So there you go, you have all of that by clicking on the first link in the description.
So BTC and especially the economic announcements, we had the CPI and inflation, results that came in below expectations. So it's rather a bullish announcement. The market pumped at that moment and we see that cryptos are weak. Why? Because at the time of the announcement at 2:30 PM, we had a strong pump and since then we have retraced and gone into a slight downtrend in the very short term. When we compare it, for example, with the S&P 500, well, it made a new ATH, it pumped and it accompanied the movement which is a bullish announcement. It's a bullish movement. Why? Because inflation is decreasing. Okay, we expected, you know, 0.3, 3.1, 0.4, 2.9. We see that we are below expectations. What does that mean? Good news for the Fed, that it can lower its rates. These are always very bullish announcements if they are below expectations because what do we want? We want economic announcements, speeches that confirm the Fed's rate cuts in the coming weeks, in the coming months, and for 2026. And the more announcements we get, speeches, things like that that show us that, okay, what we are getting is good, well, it simply confirms the rate cuts for the end of 2025, the next two, December 29th and December 10th, where there are already strong chances of two rate cuts by the end of the year. Then there's 2026. Will we have two rate cuts, three rate cuts? That's a question to ask ourselves, and we need announcements like these that come out that are rather positive and favorable to risk markets. I remind you in this kind of context where rates are lowered, it's clearly bullish for risk assets, stocks, cryptos, indices like S&P 500, Nasdaq, etc. And on the other hand, what's not great is to see BTC immediately retrace while on the other hand, as I said, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hitting new ATHs. And we see that the crypto market is weak at the moment, that's a fact. Okay, we see it with these announcements. It's been a long time since we had announcements in the United States with the shutdown. We have the announcements here. I expected a bit more volatility, especially if it was already priced in, well, it's already priced in, but if it had met expectations, I wouldn't have expected volatility. Here, it's below expectations and not much happened. Which shows us that currently, there is no interest in the crypto market. We are in a range. Okay. And that's why many people are fed up. Many people find the market redundant at the moment, and that's where many make mistakes, which we discussed in yesterday's video. For me, for now, it's quite simple. A range is in progress. As long as we don't break through $114,000 to $115,000, this area, this big block here, it starts at $112,500 up to the wick around $114,000. As long as we don't break this level, there's no reason to be bullish. We are in a range, and as long as we don't fall below $106,000 to $105,000, there's no reason to be bearish. So for now, we just need to be patient. Either you trade short-term, you look for opportunities, and there's plenty to do. We can have trend continuations in the very short term, when we have pullbacks to moving averages, when we test pivot points, there can be opportunities. Okay? However, for those who don't trade short-term, there's no point in pretending to be a short-term trader for two days. Okay? It's something that requires mastery, work, a strategy, and so on. You just need to be patient. You determine the boundaries of your range, we can switch to 4-hour. There, the range is there. A resolution to the upside would be very bullish, and we would have a good chance of reaching at least $120,000. We have $117,000 and $120,000 which will act as resistance. If, on the other hand, we break this level to the downside, well, then we'll have to watch the $90,000 level globally. That's how I see the market currently. Don't overcomplicate it. Okay? It's a range, a pause. The market is moving sideways, not doing much compared to the US market, which is performing after this type of announcement. Moreover, it's not specifically BTC that's plummeting. If I take Ether, well, we'll talk about it later, but Ether, okay, at the time of the announcement, but immediately it retraced and then we reversed our dynamic. So, a market that is rather weak, don't force things in this kind of period, be prudent, prepare for what's next, have a plan, okay? Because we could potentially be at a top here and start a retracement. Okay? And if tomorrow BTC, well, not tomorrow but in the coming months, BTC goes back to $75,000 to $80,000, a drop that is entirely possible. We would be at -40%, it's not the first time BTC would have a -40% drop. Okay? And you need to be ready for that. You need to know the zones that interest you, the exposure you want to allocate, have cash on the side, all of that needs to be prepared. Okay? I'm not saying we're going to do that, I'm just saying there's a probability of this type of movement happening. It's not an 80% probability either, but it's still there, even if it's 20-25%, okay, it's still present. And that simply requires you to have a strategy for what's next and not to say when we get there, "Oh, I didn't expect it, I don't know what to do, I don't understand, the market is a scam." No, no, I leave that for the TikTok traders who are perma-bullish and end up getting rekt constantly. Here, we have a professional approach. We adapt to any scenario, whether it's up, down, or sideways, we know what to do. Okay? If it goes to $130,000, we know what to do. If it goes to $80,000, we know what to do. And we are never stuck and we are flexible. Why? Because we have cash on the side. Which simply allows us to adapt based on what the market is doing and not be subject to the market. That is clearly something that is very, very important. Uh, well, there you go, in any case, the weekend is coming, generally, weekends are low volatility. It would be good to maintain the close above this level, as we have done every time for the last three weeks, with rather low wicks where we have consistently found a bottom globally around $106,000 to $107,000. I remind you, the two invalidations I would not like to see. A weekly close, first of all, below $107,000 to $106,000 would not be good. And a clear long-term invalidation would be a break of $90,000, where we would reverse the bullish dynamic because for now, all the major lows we've made have never been broken. We see it here, we've always made higher lows and higher highs, and we've never made a new ATH and then broken a low. And each time, we make a new ATH, we don't retest the low, and we don't break it. We make a new ATH here, this low is protected. We make a new ATH here, this low is protected. Okay? So that's a very important point. It's what preserves this long-term bullish dynamic. And here, it would be a first to have a low like this that would be broken, and which would lead, in my opinion, to a much, much lower correction. So we're not there yet, but we're preparing in case it happens. Not to say, "Ah, you see, I predicted it, you see, this is what was going to happen." No, because will I bet on breaking $90,000? No, I won't bet on that, but I'm preparing in case. I'm preparing psychologically, I'm preparing my capital, I'm preparing my strategy to know what to do if it happens. And if it happens, I won't be there saying, "Ah, I told you so, you see, it was certain." No, but I'll be there thinking, "We studied it, we prepared for it, now we're just applying the plan." That's the goal. Okay? We're not here to have an oversized ego, to try to be right. The goal isn't to try to be right. The goal is to make money. That's all we want. There you go.
In any case, on BTC short to medium term, and then on medium to long term, and now on the short term, well, for now, we are in a good location to look for longs because since the bottom we made here, we are in a bullish dynamic. We see that the 15-minute tunnel acts as support, okay, it acts as resistance, we flip it as support, and for now, it's holding. So it would be good not to go back below $109,000 because we would lose the 15-minute, we would lose the 1-hour, we would break this bullish dynamic because here we see it's pretty much the same, we're making higher lows and higher highs. If we start to go below this level, we could enter a bearish dynamic and retest this previous low which is here. So there you go, something to watch on BTC.
Regarding Ether, well, it's outperforming BTC a bit more today, but it's not incredible either. We see that we are potentially at the end of this compression. Oops, lower highs here, higher lows. So, a compression that is in progress. If I just put a volatility indicator, just to see what it looks like, we have a weakening of volatility. We don't have a purple flash yet, but I think it won't be long. And I'm looking at 4-hour, 6-hour, 4-hour, yes, we have gaps here with low volatility. So probably a Saturday or Sunday where not much will happen, and perhaps a resolution at the beginning of the week, Monday or Tuesday. However, it has already happened on recent Sundays. If we look at recent Sundays, they remain days where we had quite a bit of volatility. We see it clearly with this pump. Here, we had quite a bit of volatility for a Sunday. So, it's true, recent Sundays have moved a lot. We could also have a eventful Sunday here, something to follow. In any case, on Ether, it's pretty much the same. We are in this compression phase, we are at a long-term support level, okay? Which absolutely must hold. I am watching $3800 to $3700 on Ether. This is a level that must be maintained to preserve this buying pressure and this bullish dynamic. Even if I look at the closes, the closes are not great because here we are a bit on a double top. If I take the wicks, we can save our dynamic a bit if we start to reject at this level and have a re-entry. And for that, we need a reaction, and for now, we absolutely don't have one. However, a downward resolution of this compression could clearly take us towards $3000. Again, you need to prepare for it. I'm not saying it will happen, I'm just saying that if we go there, don't start saying wow, I lost everything. My wallet is down 50% since the ATH. This is crazy. This is something I never imagined. No, the goal is to be ready. Okay, if we go there, what do you do? Do you have cash? Do you enter positions? What do you do? Okay, how much? These are questions to ask yourself now. Not when we get there. Because if we get there, okay, and you ask yourself the questions when you are in this zone, that's when you won't make good decisions because you will simply be influenced by your emotions. When it's a fait accompli, when you're facing it, you make worse decisions than if you had prepared everything well in advance. So that's something you need to prepare right now. I'm not saying it will happen, I'm just saying in case it happens, then you'll be ready. And all those who will say, "Yeah, I didn't see it coming or I'm trapped or it's the end for Ether," well, you can just laugh because you'll simply be accumulating.
Regarding altcoins, there aren't really any cryptos that stand out. We can look here at the altcoins that are performing best today. We have Bitcoin Cash, XRP, Pepe. Here, we have FTT, XMR, and STX. On the week, similarly, no strong volatility with cryptos that stand out. And for the month, Tao remains the best crypto in the top market cap altcoins. We also have BNB that is doing not too bad, but yeah, altcoins that are rather dull for now.
If I look at the altcoins that were requested for analysis, I have Auction here, I don't know what it is at all. Oops, let's zoom out. Let's look. Okay. So, it's a crypto that made a big bottom in 2022, like many others. It performed quite well at the time of the break, we made a x5, x6, we see the W break structure here and we took off well. And then, a top structure at this level, peak, trough, lower peak, break. So, we are reversing our dynamic, and since then, we are clearly in a bearish dynamic. We see the moving averages pointing downwards. Okay. And that's where it's important to take profits. Anyway, I'm sorry, but a person who positions themselves in this sideways phase and experiences a x6, and doesn't take profits, not even partially, I'm not saying sell everything, but partially, there's a problem in their strategy, there's a problem in their way of trading. Okay? And this person will never be profitable in cryptos. It's impossible not to secure part of your position on a x6. I didn't take the lowest point. Moreover, I took the break of a level. If I take the lowest point, well, it remains a very, very good performance. Now, we are correcting, we are coming back to retest this previous accumulation phase. We are in a very good zone here. Okay, now we don't have a buy signal. We have a weakening, I see it here. We probably have divergences. Yes, we are diverging well. Quite a few bullish divergences, which shows us that the sellers are exhausting themselves. The problem is that we don't have a buying reaction. We don't have buyers showing up. We are missing a pattern here, the break of a resistance peak, a W structure, something that shows us that, okay, buyers are present. There is a momentum that is shifting back to the buyers. For now, that's not the case at all. Yes, we have a seller weakening, but we need a reversal of this dynamic, to go back above the moving averages, and then we could have a positive signal. You see, we are rejected in the Alit tunnel every time. Okay, it has been acting as resistance for a long time. Here, we simply need a structure to form. As long as we don't do that, we are in a bearish dynamic, and it's very dangerous to position yourself on this kind of chart. Yes, we are at support, but I don't know if we will see a buying reaction. Especially since we are on an altcoin. If I look, we are what? We are 509th. Okay. So, we are taking a risk. We are on a very low market cap crypto. So, well, we are not on a crypto like BTC, ETH, or on a retracement at a major weekly or monthly support level like this, where we could position ourselves.
Next, I was asked for an analysis of LTC. I'll take LTC, it's still a sideways phase. The D5 that I did at that time is still relevant. We are globally in a big range, we haven't done much. So, from an amplitude perspective, well, we are still at 150%. So, someone who positioned themselves at the bottom of the range could clearly have benefited, but we haven't had a big bullish trend, a big upward phase like we had in 2021 or 2017. And well, it's quite simple, in this kind of sideways phase. Either we wait for a break of the range with a pullback, or we wait to retest the lower extremity and we get a buying reaction. Here, we are in the middle of the range. It's the worst place to position yourself. It's ugly to position yourself here because generally we have a stop loss that is much lower below the range, and that doesn't give us a good risk-reward. I prefer to have either a break with an invalidation if we re-enter, or a return to the bottom of the range with an invalidation if we break the range. Which allows me to have a good risk-reward. You see? Either I play the breakout with a stop loss on re-entry at this level approximately, and I can aim for 2:1 or 3:1, or if we find a bottom at the lower extremity. But if I position myself here, it requires me to place a stop loss clearly lower, and there I don't have the best risk-reward. That's the only thing I would see on LTC. Okay. Moreover, we are still at resistance. We are approximately here, we broke this neckline of this distribution pattern. We are retesting it quite a few times. It's complicated to enter so close to a resistance level. And I remind you, LTC remains a crypto that is long-term underperforming BTC. But we will come back, we will come back to LTC because I was asked a question that I will answer in a video.
And the last crypto. IO, well, IO IO IO Binance, or I can take, no, I'll take Binance. So, IO, it's a young crypto that has a lot of tokens to unlock. It is, if I'm not mistaken, yes, I think so. .net. No, I wasn't here, I was... It's a crypto that is, as I say, quite young, that has a lot of tokens to unlock. Not all of its supply is in circulation. This is something you need to pay close attention to. Many people will directly focus on the price, they will look at whether there is a pattern, which is important, but the tokenomics are also important because you see, we are down 93%, and when we look at the altcoins that have taken the biggest hit in 2024-2025, they are altcoins that have a huge number of tokens to unlock, and IO is one of them. If we look at the supply, only 27% is in circulation, and here we clearly have a market cap that is higher than the price because what moves the market cap? So when I say higher, it's a mistake what I'm saying, but what moves the market cap? It's either the price variation, or the supply variation, the number of tokens in circulation. So the more tokens you unlock, the more the market cap increases. Okay? Or the more the price goes up, and the market cap increases. But what is healthy for a crypto is to have a market cap that increases proportionally to the price. When you have too many tokens to unlock, and I've shown it here, and it extends until 20423, we have private investors who have been able to benefit from an extremely low price, who find themselves simply taking their profits potentially, and that creates pressure that is clearly selling pressure. And this is something you want to be careful about. Many people jump on cryptos because it's the trend, because it's talked about, because it's new. If you have ugly tokenomics, okay, with a bad distribution where it favors private investors too much, not the public too much, and so on, it can be impactful. Now, still until 203233, we see that the supply, the increase in supply remains rather digestible. However, from 2026 to 2027-28, it's ugly. And here, we are going to triple the supply in one year, one and a half years. So, that's why we have these kinds of projects that are taking a huge hit. We have dilution and a decrease in scarcity. Now, from a technical point of view, what we are missing here is clearly a reversal pattern, something like that which would clearly favor a bottom that could be drawn. For now, we are in a bearish trend, still with lower lows and lower highs, and there is clearly a lack of buying signal. But before looking at the technical side, it's always good to revisit the fundamental side and tokenomics.
So, I'll finish with a question that was asked to me. Usually, I screen it and display it. I didn't think of it. The question is quite simple. We can find it directly on YouTube, but it's a very, very good question to ask. Could you give us your opinion on the criteria you use to decide which dying crypto not to keep? That's a very good question, and there are dying cryptos. First of all, there are cryptos that are easy to identify. They are a bit like dinosaurs that have existed since 2015-2016 and that don't do much against the dollar and against BTC. I can give an example, I can take LTC. LTC, oops, if I take it like this, it's doing nothing. For a long time, we've been in a range. You see, since 2017, we haven't made a new ATH. I don't count this as a new ATH, you know. It's a few dollars compared to BTC and ETH which made it in 2021, it's insignificant. We are in a big range. This is a dying crypto. You see, we are almost back to the same price as 2013. And anyway, we can make the comparison. We can look at crypto LTC USD divided by crypto BTC USD. And here, we simply see the evolution of BTC against LTC, okay? Or rather, LTC against BTC. We are clearly in a bear market since the token's creation. Someone who bought LTC at creation, okay, has been outperformed by BTC, and especially LTC, there's no staking, there's nothing. Okay, there's no utility. So, we see that it's, for example, a bad investment. There are others. We can take, for example, all of Bitcoin Cash. Bitcoin Cash. Well, yes, it can perform, but globally, we are also in a big range. There's not much to do. If I compare Bitcoin Cash against BTC, it will give us the same chart. We will see the cryptos, well, it's all the cryptos that have existed for a long time and that didn't make new ATHs in 2021. These are the first cryptos. Okay, the first wave, which I've been talking about for years, and it's quite simple to anticipate that it would happen. There are other cryptos, it's much more complicated, but we can still do it. I'm thinking, for example, of EGLD. I've been critical of this crypto. Why? Because we were clearly on a crypto that pumped too much, and especially we made a VOP, we never retested it. Which shows that generally, real projects make more quality tops. I'm thinking, for example, of Solana. Yes, Solana's top is different. We have an M top here. We retested the structure. This kind of top is a bit more quality than here, bam, and we don't even retest it. If I take, for example, BTC, it's a different VOP because we retest, and it's not like we made a VTOP at this level. Here, I would say it's different, but you see, it's different from this kind of structure. For example, you see on Atom, we made a real top structure. So, that already indicates to me that it's ugly when we don't retest it. Here, we can retest it. Here, we can retest it, but when we see that after years, we don't retest it, that's already not very good. Then, it's all the cryptos, well, that had a big hype while the fundamentals didn't follow. And there have been a lot of cryptos that pumped a lot while the fundamentals weren't particularly incredible. Okay? And generally, these are the cryptos that will not make a new ATH again. And then there are a bit of cryptos where we will have to be careful. It's a bit too early to say, but I'm still wary. They are cryptos that have not-so-great tokenomics. Arbitrum, Darknet. Darknet is ugly, you see. These might be cryptos that will never make new ATHs again. It's possible. And there are little signs like that, you just have to be wary. And I much prefer a chart like Ave, because for me, AVE will make a new ATH. And you see what I was saying, the market top on Ave is a real structure, a real distribution phase, not a VTOP. Okay? Here, we have a structure. So, it's important to ask yourself this question. It's a very pertinent question, and it will clearly allow him and you, if you listen to this type of advice, if you also do your research, to avoid dying cryptos, at least to avoid the biggest dying cryptos, cryptos that will not make new ATHs again because the fundamentals don't follow, or they are a bit like dinosaurs. I'll leave you with that, I wish you a very good evening, and I'll see you tomorrow for another video. Bye bye.