Transcription
Enhancing nuclear capability, for it to become a military weapon, it can be checked by percentage. But if it's in the 80-90% range, this is a clear signal, "Hey, it shows that it has reached military nuclear capability." That's why this battlefield conflict issue arose, that if left unchecked, it would surely escalate.
Dealing with Iran right now has become a difficult matter. The main heart of the issue has shifted to geopolitics and alliance factors, whether it be China, whether it be Russia, whether it be North Korea. All three of these countries possess nuclear weapons.
Hello, Sema. >> Hello, Khun Thanee. Semaew here. Good to be with you. I've been discussing Iran with you for a very long time now, and we're happy that it will finally end. But in Semaew's opinion, does Semaew think it's really over? Is it truly achieved? Will the original parties agree? Will Mustaba not obstruct it? How likely is it that the deal will be concluded?
>> Oh, this deal ending, it's already clear that it's not sustainable because it says 60 days, and if they want to extend it beyond 60 days, they can. That's already the answer. It's not a permanent closure. And the main issues that should be closed, well, they haven't been resolved. It just says, "For these 60 days, there's a ceasefire, and other matters are set aside." After that, there will be further development. This development is important because it will address the nuclear issue, the enhancement of nuclear capabilities, and also, what was it, the various expenses and money that the US seized from Iran, and so on. We've looked at it, and the main issues will definitely be prolonged.
But the best thing is clear in one aspect: at least there's a 60-day halt, and it leads to the possibility of opening the Strait of Hormuz, allowing the world to breathe a little regarding the oil situation. We can clearly see that with this news, there's likely to be a gathering. This 60-day period and the opening of Hormuz have sent a signal, causing global oil prices to drop. But here, we have to keep watching and hoping. In just a few days, one or two days, it will be clear. But certainly, it's a closure within the 60-day framework, but a permanent one, well, that's probably still difficult. But at least, okay, we can breathe for 60 days, and we'll see the atmosphere as we approach those 60 days. There will likely be news developments to observe, but the nuclear issue has not yet been resolved. So we'll have to keep hoping, yes.
>> I'd like to briefly provide some background: over the past three months or so, there's been a most significant turning point, which is the passing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was Mustaba's father. I think this is a very crucial core in many changes in global geography. So I asked Semaew further: Mustaba, as the current Supreme Leader, he probably has his own ideas, which I think are even stronger than his father's. That means he's young and has a strong determination to make a nuclear bomb more likely than his father. So I also don't understand, regarding the nuclear issue, in Semaew's opinion, does Iran currently have nuclear weapons, or are they in possession, or are they about to produce them, or will they not produce them, or which way will they go? Please analyze this point specifically.
>> Currently, it is still believed to be under development because we must admit that the inspection here, whether the development of nuclear capability can become a military weapon, can be checked by the percentage of uranium development. And here, the Western bloc, including the US and Israel, is closely monitoring it, saying, "Hey, this hasn't reached the percentage to be a military weapon, but it's precarious, it's around 60%." But if it's in the 80-90% range, this is a clear signal, "Hey, it shows that it has reached military nuclear capability." Alright, we can infer that it's close, and that's why this battlefield conflict issue arose, that "Hey, if left unchecked, it would surely escalate."
But at the same time, we have to look at how dealing with Iran right now has become a difficult matter, because it's a system of alliances. That's why I said that currently, whether this social confrontation, this battlefield, will end or not, the main heart of the issue has shifted to geopolitics and alliance factors. And right now, Iran's alliance factors are clearly visible, whether it be China, whether it be Russia, whether it be North Korea. It is clear that all three of these countries possess nuclear weapons.
Therefore, Iran doesn't even need to have them yet, but with allies who do, it's strong, and it's already a deterrent because their cooperation is clear. How is their cooperation clear? If we look back in history, the desire to be a world power has always been between two poles: the US, China, Russia. The US on one side, China and Russia on the other. And the US says it must be number one, "America First." But recently, China and Russia discussed, "Hey, being first isn't how it works." It has to be what they call an integrated system, meaning it's a consensus, not like, "Hey, it's a duo," no, it's a consensus, meaning in this world, you can't be number one; there must be multiple poles. It must be multipolar, not bipolar. Bipolar is just two. Russia and China say it's multipolar now; you can't be the sole power. So, when it's multipolar, we've seen that these alliances, whatever they are, are tight. China, Russia, North Korea, they are definitely tight. And now, China is even more relieved regarding North Korea, which in the past, China also seemed to have concerns because there were indications that Korea might unite, North Korea and South Korea. But currently, it's clear because North Korea has amended its constitution to state that it will not engage with South Korea. So China is smiling because, no matter what, North Korea is self-contained. The threat that would come from South Korea is considered closed; there's a buffer. So, even if Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons yet, but its close allies do, when we look at the alliances, it's as if Iran already has nuclear weapons, Khun Thanee, yes.
>> Hmm, so let's look at it briefly: the four "axis" countries, called CRINK, are Russia, uh, uh, Iran, and North Korea. Combined, in simple terms, they are called CRINK. This CRINK group is, uh, a group that is called "anti-US," ah, another name for it.
>> Exactly the opposite, yes, clearly the opposite, uh-huh.
>> That's why I said, "Hey, there's no way you can be first. It has to be multipolar," because their multipolar approach has drawn in four countries now. That's it.
>> The current representative fighting the US is Iran. Therefore, Iran receives full support from three nations. These three nations fully back them but don't show their faces. >> Most recently at the UN, the UN also has its clarity, right? That China said to let the UN be the mediator in negotiations between, uh, the United States of America and Iran. And these negotiations might take place in Geneva. The signing negotiations that Semaew just mentioned are in the nature of a temporary ceasefire, but it's a temporary ceasefire for 10 days, but it can be extended. That's it.
>> Ah, but the important thing turns out not to be that. The important thing turns out to be what we just discussed: nuclear, number one. Number two, what Iran wants is >> an end to sanctions and the return of money. These two might be exchanged >> right there in Geneva, huh? Like, "Okay, no more nuclear, and then return the money," uh-huh.
>> And the one who decides is Donald Trump, right? Donald Trump sent Van to sign the agreement. I want to ask Semaew, in a case like this, has Donald Trump reached his final point? That is, if he doesn't sign the agreement, uh, the US economy might collapse. Do we view it this way, that Donald is backed into a corner, has no choice, and must close the deal by the 15th? Is that it?
>> Ah, this still carries weight. And at the same time, the indications from Iran's Foreign Minister convey a positive tone, stating that their progress is considered the most significant, and there's a possibility of it happening. If we listen, we shouldn't listen to Trump; we must listen to Iran. Iran, meaning the Foreign Minister, speaking like this, uh-huh, it shows that it carries weight. And at the same time, as Thanee said, the internal factors that are pressuring the US government, and the fact that inflation has risen to over 3% and so on, oh my, things are expensive, people are suffering, and the internal politics with the mid-year elections, these are forcing the method. And at the same time, at this point where things are settled, Trump is still seen as settling for a good-looking solution, because it means there's a ceasefire, Hormuz is open, and as for those issues, okay, they've been discussed for 60 days and can be extended. So, this bridge to de-escalation is considered a way for him not to lose face, and it means he can solve domestic political problems first, and then deal with it again later, yes, I agree.
>> But the minor issues that are still lingering, many of them, as I said, there are 14 points, right? >> Major issues might be resolved, 4-5 points. >> Uh, minor issues are still pending, for example, Israel. Israel says, "Hey, no, I don't want to stop yet. I want to continue fighting. I don't acknowledge these negotiations. I will fight and continue to attack Lebanon." Does Semaew think Israel will agree to that? Will they agree to a truce, or will they separate? Oh.
>> This >> will be discussed further, hmm. >> Iran still considers it a condition that Lebanon and Israel must also stop. But Israel tries to say, "Hey, I'm not involved. I'm involved in the Iran battlefield, that's one thing, but the battlefield I'm managing with Hezbollah is not related." This is a difficulty. However, what Israel needs to listen to, needs to hear from the US, is that if there's a stop, the US must be firm in guaranteeing security for Israel. If it's not firm on this, then it's difficult for Israel to agree. But the problem arises that in this situation, the scenario we've stepped back from, and the context of this situation, well, it's alarming. Why? Because none of these three countries trust each other at all: Iran, the US, Israel. Even though, in reality, the US and Israel should have an atmosphere of trust, but from the past events and scenarios, they say that all three countries have problems with mutual trust. So the whole world is on edge, "Hey, will it work out this time?" And everyone is worried about Israel. And Israel, let's say, if it says, "Oh, security guarantee," it's all worrying because in this region, whether it's the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf group, 5-6 countries, everyone wants confidence from the US. If there's no confidence, then everyone, oh, all countries are in a difficult position. But right now, Trump seems to be making an announcement, confirming that he will guarantee security in this region. So, is it alarming? It's still alarming because we clearly see that Netanyahu, of Israel, has never listened or agreed to anything with Trump. He will only agree when he himself sees that "Hey, this is okay, it can go through," then he'll take it. But if he doesn't agree, it's very difficult. But from this context, they also see that the US is bound by limitations. The allies on that side, "Hey, if it's just one-on-one with Iran, it might be manageable, but now we're starting to see clear signs that 'Hey, Iran isn't alone.' It has China, it has Russia, it has North Korea." And the problem is that Trump uses a "Madman theory" in his leadership, making it difficult for everyone to read his moves, turning things upside down. One moment he's in, the next he's out, then he cancels. After speaking, "Ah, okay, let's create a good atmosphere again." Then two days ago, he had to heavily attack. Suddenly, after 5-6 hours, "Are we taking it? Hey, the atmosphere is good, things are settled again." This is a difficult game. But on the other hand, in the allied wing, the wing of Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea, actually, the leader of North Korea is in the same league, in the same league as Trump. So, "Hey," Israel might think, "Hey, those 3, 2, 3 countries, ah, with China, with Russia, with Iran, it might still be okay, hey, but if you encounter the unpredictable madness of North Korea, that's not easy," because North Korea has always communicated, "Hey, I am a nuclear teacher for Iran," and also tells Iran, "Hey, your country must have it, because if you don't, it will be like me, no one will invade, no one will threaten, even though it's a small country." So here, if we focus on the geopolitical factors and the alliance factors, these will clearly tell the situation of these two pairs, whether they will agree or not. But in this situation, if it's short-term like this, finding a ceasefire, easing the situation in Hormuz, I still believe that Israel will still compromise because it's not a permanent stop. If they are not satisfied, they might create an issue, create a situation again. So here, but right now, I think the world is watching, "Hey, let's step back and observe first," and see the real reactions, whether Iran will truly comply, whether the US will truly comply. If so, then we'll talk about it again later.
>> We're looking at the global impact this time, that if oil can temporarily exit the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, and, uh, the recovery in prices, which I've seen now is around 83 or 85, down from 90. >> Yes, below 90 is considered a great relief. Below 90 is considered okay in this situation. >> But for it to be good, for it to have less economic impact, it needs to drop further to 70. >> Ah, which >> which is possible to drop to 70 because there will be a flood of oil coming out during this period when it's been held back. All those ships floating around, when it comes out, it will flood the market, and the market will have to drop sharply. >> And overall, it will cause oil prices to fall to 60-70. If it falls to 60-70, it will cause inflation in the US to drop. >> Yes. >> This will have a good effect on the US economy. Interest rates will fall. Once interest rates fall, uh, everything will improve, huh? There will be investments. Recently, the American stock market fell for several days, falling by as much as 10%! Before SpaceX's IPO, the stock market dropped significantly. Some say it was a warning, a healing, a way to reduce the market's frenzy, like a bubble not quite bursting, just letting out a little air. And this time, it was hit hard by SpaceX's IPO. Now I want Semaew to analyze, in terms of the global overview, if we look at it, will our world enter something called "getting better and better"? Meaning, "Hey, no more fighting, we'll be peaceful." Uh, perhaps the ordinary people have learned their lesson and won't do it anymore. "Let's develop our countries instead," or will there be new working methods, new policies after the war? Difficult.
Why? Because Israel has never trusted Iran, as I said. If there are indications that nuclear development is progressing to a higher percentage, to become military-grade, they will never agree, because Israel's military doctrine is: 1. Prohibit adversaries, prohibit their opponents from having nuclear weapons. Therefore, they must constantly keep a watchful eye. This is a crucial point. And 2, well, the recovery in this battlefield, for Iran to return to normal conditions, oh, it's not easy. For oil to return to normal conditions right now, it's not easy. And at the same time, the precariousness that events could still occur, it still indicates that, "Hey, we still need to be careful, still need to be careful." So, the smoothness of the world, it probably won't be there yet. But if you ask if it's better, the opening of Hormuz will definitely make things better. But will it be the same as before? No, it won't be the same, because recovery still takes time. But in the distant future, I believe in this process. The entire region that has to face these events, they all have to think hard. China has to think, the US has to think. The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran thought it would use as a geopolitical bargaining chip, might not be so easy anymore, because the need to transport oil via pipelines that can exit through the Red Sea, that can exit through the Arabian Sea, so, through Oman, there will need to be what is called a logistical route this way. And the importance of Hormuz, which Iran currently controls, will diminish. Believe me, the long-term strategy in this region, among these groups of countries, they will surely have to join hands with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, look at Oman and so on. They will surely have to seek cooperation. Saudi Arabia has an advantage because it has pipelines that can exit both through the Persian Gulf and through the Red Sea. But other nations will have to connect, and once connected, the atmosphere is now clear. The UAE and Oman, to exit through the Gulf of Oman, because they are at the mouth of the gulf, they don't have to get deeply involved with Persia. But in the future, I believe these are already wealthy countries. Investments that need to be made in pipelines or other routes to avoid using services in the Strait of Hormuz will be possible. But in this situation, we still affirm that the recovery, oh, from Iran being attacked in those oil production wells, it will still take time. But the tension is still good because Hormuz is open. But to say it will be smooth sailing, no, because Israel will never trust them. And actually, those 6 countries in the Persian Gulf, those Arabs, they are also wary of Iran, they don't trust it. Therefore, the need for security guarantees from the US, I still believe, must remain. Those 10-plus points discussed, there's a point where Iran says, "Hey, US, then take your forces back." This will probably be difficult [clears throat] because they will have to use the language that "what I have placed here is to guarantee peace." Using new language, the US must say it needs to keep some forces because these countries, the Gulf states, they tell me that they must have it as a guarantee, to pay as a guarantee, to guarantee peace. That's it.
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