Transcription
Boy, do we have a lot to go over. We can obviously see the range in the S&P. It's pretty wide with the entire move. I think the most important thing is what's going on with Bitcoin, silver, and the software names. Will they? Won't they? But let's take a look at this.
The NDX obviously struggling here, but is it? Because we're not really down that much. We saw some really positive indications in certain markets that have gotten absolutely destroyed this week. Take a look. Silver futures actually bounced pretty heavily, a good $10 off that low on the week. Very important because that is going to be a reduction of what people are worried about on the margin requirement side. Also, Bitcoin, did it find a bottom or are we going to see the continuation and breakdown here? We're going to talk about what happened this week specifically with some earnings out there that might indicate that the pressure that people were looking for might start to dissipate.
We're going to spend a lot of time on the complete implosion of software and is AI just going to come in and destroy every software company out there? Well, the market seems to think so with the way it's trading. I'm going to point out some technical things here that people might want to pay attention to because we've been here before, but a lot of people think this times it's different and I'm not so sure and you're going to have to make a decision for yourself. While we continue to see foreign money pour into their best companies and also a new closing high from the previous week on gold. Let's get into it.
Now, the most important thing here for us is to just start with the beginning and I'm going to spend a lot of time on software and then it's going to tie all together and you're going to understand why by the end of this video you need to really pay attention to software because that's going to be the key for everything. And I know it doesn't seem like it, but it's going to be. And by the end of this video, you'll understand why you really want to watch IGV and why I spent so much time on it. That said, I do get questions a lot to follow up on things. So, we're going to follow up on this because I think it's super important to get FNDF. For those that don't know, that is the strongest fundamental companies that are out there in international markets.
So, if we go and take a look at this here, and I'm just going to turn it into a weekly in a minute here, but I just want to show this because I think it's super important. Draw our level right here. And then we're going to draw a level right here for a second. And that's going to become very clear why. Now, we're looking at this on a relative basis. And I think that's really important for us to get everything we're looking at here is on a relative basis. Can't stress that enough. We want to pay attention to that. What I'm seeing here is, yeah, you're starting to see a little bit of a turn. What we could do here is take a 200-day moving average on a weekly chart. And what I'll do is I'll make this white so we can just see it super clean. There it is right there. And you are finally over the 200-week moving average here.
So should we be worried about this from an S&P standpoint? I think how you have to view this is view it on how it's meant to be. Whenever we do anything like this, it's relativism. And what do I mean by that? It's relative. It's not absolute. So, in other words, what I'm showing is if you have capital outlay, should capital go into FNDF or or the SPY? And you might say, well, I want some exposure and this might be a way to determine if you should have that exposure or not. Right? As always, subscribe to the channel, click all notifications. Saturdays are deep dives and then we follow them as the week goes on. But what I'm going at, what I'm pointing out here is pretty clean. I would think it's very, very clean. We can put indicators on it, do whatever. But you are breaking out and people are having that money come in. And I just think it's really important to understand why it's happening because once we understand why it's happening, we can understand why it would stop or why it would continue. And we would go back to this period in time in April. And we'd have to take a look at what happened in April.
Now, the easiest way to go back there and jog people's memory, and we're just going to drop the spy on top of it at the same exact time that we saw this happen, and we'd say, well, why did we start moving here at that particular time? And yes, this is when we had all that winning and liberation. So what happened during that period of time is the S&P as well that started to rally as well, right? But we saw from then on FNDF started seeing more money. Why European and Asia started pouring more money into Europe and Asian names, specifically even the defensive names after what happened with NATO? It's not rocket science, but does that mean that you need to be out of the S&P for that? No. Does it mean that you might want to start looking at FNDF names? Probably not the worst idea to look at industrial names as we see all this growth over there. But do I have to run into this? Well, this boils down to the same way that we looked at the EU AD and we talked about this when everything started happening. Um, and I think it's really interesting to get this kind of stuff. I'm going to leave this up. By the time you realize that this stuff's breaking out, you tend to see that that's pretty much always it. So I don't know how much outperformance is left when we look at that but I do think it's important to get that these are international very strong fundamental companies and I think it overlays pretty perfectly to what we're seeing here. Where is money going? Well money is going into the industrial sectors. It's very very clear if you look at the XLI and everything.
So is this important? It's extremely important because this does not happen during a recession and it certainly doesn't happen if we're going through some kind of depression or contraction period. You don't see these names break out. And that's why, and I'm going to tie it all together, so you're going to have to stay with me. It's so important to understand what's going on with the IGV. And you'll be like, well, what does this have to do with anything? The same thing it has to do with silver, the same thing it has to do with Bitcoin. It's all tied together because we're watching these names absolutely implode. You know, one of our our best shorts on the week was actually Microsoft. Um I actually had a really nice short in MSTR and I'm going to get to that in this video. But I you know, we got out of this and I was also short the IGV. If you're trying to get in the community, make sure you're on the wait list because a small batch of invites will go out this week and you'll have about a week to answer that and get in. But if you're not on the wait list because it's taking longer to get people in uh right now because we're letting uh less people in just because of the demand. I just want to get that out there. Links in description um and I do the onboarding calls which you know obviously takes time for me to do them all. You don't you're not forced to talk to me but uh you some people want to. Anyway, if you see what's happening with Microsoft, we've done the gap fill down here. So it looks to me like this is an area that we really want to pay attention to, right? And it is. It's definitely an area we want to pay attention to. But why are we going to spend so much time on here and how does this all connect with silver and Bitcoin? All right, let's do it.
Really want to spend some time on this graph today and I think it's really important because we have a a cascade here and I I should show you the cascade and then we're going to really dive into it. And right now I'm just showing you a 4-hour chart. But what we're going to do is we're going to show this on a comparative analysis basis. What we're going to do is we're going to zoom in and then we're going to zoom way out and then we're going to talk about how to play this because I do think that there's money to be made here and I think it's worth going over. What's in front of you is Bitcoin and IGV. And if you look at this, it's literally like looking in the mirror. It's literally the same chart to an extent. You've had greater moves obviously in Bitcoin and you've had great greater drops going on as well. But there's this whole trade tied to what I think is one big trade of non-diversification, but assets where people think they're in different assets, but they're really in the same asset. They're in a risk on asset. And this comes from cross collateralization and a lot of other reasons that we're not going to go into. But what I really want to focus on today is you're staring at the same thing, just different names to an extent.
Now, obviously, there's risks to both and different kinds of risk. If we look at this and we just start really paying attention to it, I'll go to a 15. I'll go to a five. It it you know, look at it. Look at it. But you see where I'm going with this? It's the same thing to an extent. And when one's moving, the other's moving. And are they moving in the same direction? In a way, yes. But you have more moving parts that are going to move the holdings than here. And we're going to spend some time on that as well. But I do think that we need to address this. And I think we even have to add one more because I think by adding this one more, it becomes even clearer. Now, to be crystal clear about this, you can see the break here. And you could see that Bitcoin broke. You can see that IGV did not. And we're going to spend a lot of time digesting this because I really think that what happens here is the pendulum swings. And people will talk about the fear and greed index, but they're not talking about fear and greed relative to fear and greed on something like IGV, fear and greed relative to Bitcoin, fear and greed relative to silver. See, when you take the way that they equate and they come up with these fear and greed indexes, picture if you had something like that that is fear and greed per not index or overall market, but individual stock or individual way to look at the world, right? Or individual sector. I actually do have something like that and I'm going to give you a part of it just today. So, how you should really view it. Uh, I'm not going to give you the whole thing, but I do want to give you a part of it that you can use. And I do have a a way that I'm I'm looking at actually getting this out to people because it's it's really interesting. I'm working with a a developer on building actually a platform to give you guys some of the stuff. So, we'll see how that goes. But it is actually moving forward. Anyway, um, but I think this is super super interesting to me. And I I can't stress this enough here. Watch watch when I overlay this.
So, now if we overlay silver with this, and this is really what I think has been happening. Now, obviously, silver had has this huge move. Um, you know, silver has been the cat's pajamas. White Bitcoin has not been. But if we just kind of take a look from 15 minutes on and we just drop the line here for just a second and you'll see that it's really been one big trade. It's really been sell silver, sell IGV, sell Bitcoin. The reason behind this, I personally think it's leverage. I actually think this drop caused a drop of leverage and I think it caused people to derisk. And from that point, the question becomes, does that d-risking continue. So then again, let's go to a a one minute here and just look at what happened. Now, if we do again the simplest things and here's silver for a second in green and what we're going to do is we're going to drop a line there and we can see that silver held. Now when silver held, IGV did not hold but undercut. And then we could see that Bitcoin undercut. What did silver do? It didn't undercut. So the question here for me is understanding that that's probably considering the way that they were moving. It tells us two things. Let me tell you the first thing it tells us and these are these are just facts. This correlation exists, right? It actually tells us three things. One, this correlation exists. Two, the probability that silver's done going down in the short term is probably very real because of this the way that this is being set up. Three, the correlation between IGV and Bitcoin is stronger now than the correlation between silver IGV and Bitcoin. It tells us those three things emphatically. If you feel differently about that, I'd like to see the comments and I'd like to see why you think that because I don't know everything despite despite what people think. Do I'm always interested in another opinion that can prove me wrong because I'm not interested in ego. I'm interested in making money. So, if you have something you're like, "No, this is why yada yada yada." Cool. Let's go. Let's dance. Let me know. But I see it this way.
Now, what we're going to do is we're going to unwind this and then we're going to talk about how I think we could profit from it. So now let's go back to the 4-hour chart here. And we can all see the sloping down. And to be clear, this is like catching a falling knife. So let's let's just call it what it is. And there's there's some things here that we really need to talk about that are happening. And and we'll get into it. But do we need to undercut here? I don't know. I don't know that we have to undercut all the winning and liberation that we've had in our life. But I do think that we have to pay attention to this area and the fact that we hit here. And so when we start driving across this area just on a 4-hour basis, you will see very clearly back here where we flipped it tried to get over this has become a battleground. So if we look at this area, the question is do you need to undercut this area to put in a low? And I think that what you always want to do here is look at past performance and then determine did that past performance need that in order to bottom. So when we start looking at this stuff, the answer is going to always be, you know, murky because I don't have 30 data points, which is what I need. But all I can do is go on the past. That's all that's all I have. I can only go over what I what I had before. And what you'll see right here when we drop it is, yeah, we did we needed to undercut right here. And then from there, from from that undercut on the 24th, we put in that bottom. So yeah, there we did need to do it. Did we need to do it in every case that's ever been out there? No. No, we didn't need to do it in every case that needed to be out there.
If we go to this one and we're saying, "Oh, we're going to wait for the undercut." I don't know why it does that to me. I think it's a little test. It's a little test for my patience. And it's winning. So, if we look at this one and say, "Well, we needed need that the undercut." And we waited for it. You'll note you never got the undercut. So, instead of buying this on November 22nd, you're waiting for your undercut. Guess what? You never get the undercut. So, then that begs the question, do I need to wait for it or not? I don't know. Did you have to wait for it here? you know. So, I think that when you start getting in this range, what I'm getting at when you see these kind of tests and you might say, "Well, that's not far enough. We can measure the difference of these. It doesn't matter." But what I'm getting at is maybe you do need to wait, maybe you don't. Maybe it's going to keep dropping, maybe it's not. You don't know. But this is what I do know. And I think that this is really important.
So, in front of you is IGV. And then this is set up with my RSI settings. And I just want to point something out that I started to notice. And I'm just going to drop this here for a second. There's a couple things about IGV that I really noticed. So I'm going to drop that down here and I'm just going to say on the 4-hour you had a 10 reading which is really really really low. And so what we're going to do with that 4-hour 10 reading is I just want to show you this. Now RSI to me is really clear at determining one thing. I'm going to blow this up for us a little bit here. It's really good at determining the magnitude of the move. And there are levels that you'll see like during the great pandemic right in here where you got to an 18 and then of course you kept dropping but then you can see the divergence right here where it stopped and then you can see back here when we had you know winning and liberation 1.0 you got to a 14. But when you start coming through this and looking at all this data and going back decades you'd have to come back to the great financial crisis to find anything that was even close to this. So then if you were to look at that specific area and there's another spot as well, but if I go to this area right here in the great financial crisis where we came into this area and then you see this divergence, it's pretty clean, isn't it? So the question becomes, do we need this in order to put that in, you might not get it. You might not get it and then you're sitting there waiting. So what I tend to see is all right, up, right, down, up, down. Perfect. Tries to retest in here in the same area and it's nowhere near that area and then it holds and then we get another one in here. So you get another one, you know, about a year later that gives you even more ability to say, "Oh, this is definitely in an area of interest, right?" But if you come back to these other areas, where do you say it? Like 2007 when obviously, you know, everybody thought we were going to lose every single bank. You come back to these other areas in here, 2005, you have blowups that do it. But even.com and I don't have all the data, but even when you get into this September 11th, 2002, you get these areas, but they're not common. And I think that's really important to get as we go forward. So maybe you're here three or four times. Maybe you're here three or four times in its existence.
Now, there is something to be said about this because now I'm going to go to the weekly. And then on the weekly, what we're going to do is we're going to do the same thing and we're going to drop it here on the weekly. And then that's going to give us a 26 on RSI. And then I'm going to just explain why I'm using RSI. And that you should use what you're comfortable with. RSI determines the magnitude of the move. That's really what it determines. So when you look at the calculation and how it's calculated, and there's really good books on this if you guys want the names of those books, they're from some of them are from the the '70s. Um, they're really good and they explain how this is calculated. And I really think people should watch that. Look, there's a divergence, but they don't work, right? Okay. So, if we look at this and we understand where we are and you can see the divergence in here, that's telling you, hey, this is starting to slow down a little bit right in here in 22nd. But whatever. I'm not saying that you can't go in here and that you can't work this off and that this doesn't take weeks. It's not what I'm saying at all. A matter of fact, I'm showing you weekly charts. So, if I'm showing you weekly charts, the next bar is what? A freaking weekly bar. So, like, understand that. That's why I showed the 4-hour and then went back that way with it. So, we have some time here from a weekly perspective. From a 4-hour perspective, you could bounce up. And we're going to talk about how you should be viewing this in a second from a 4-hour perspective versus a weekly perspective. But what I don't want to do is I don't want to negate some real simple things that have happened here. Here's the trend line. Major support. You broke it. Well, last time you broke it and you held. All right. So, where does that put us? Well, that would put us here. So the question is, do we break down through all of this range now or do we start to hold? And we're going to talk about that in a second because there's some other things here that are super interesting about this space. But what we're trying to do is we're trying to thread a needle. So when we're looking at that, we're just going to look at this area right in here on the 16th and say, was that an area of interest? Well, you can see in here that we held. If we go back here, here's the pandemic. Well, in this area, we held. How about in here? Well, we came down, but this was $1.7 trillion. And then we had to turn around and that took a couple months. All right. If you go through all of them, you're going to find one thing in common when you got down to this area. And it's it's common in all of them. You bottomed. And it might not have bottomed the first week, but it bottomed in previous weeks. So like in for weeks forward, I should say it that way. Um, so what where I'm going with this is you're at a level that you need to pay attention to. But wait, there's more.
Front of you. In front of you is a 200-day moving average. And I made it about as neon green so that you guys can you crazy kids with your mobile phones these days can say it. And what you're going to see is that you hit it and you quit it. That was it. So one of the areas that we could always look at would be gez I wonder if we're going to take out that 79.27. And if we do this week that might be an area of interest to see if you close under that. And then if we look at this right here and we take that point as well we can see where that low is. But when we got down to this area before in April when all that winning liberation took place, what happened? We bounced. Well, we're bouncing here as well. And then we can see when we got here in the 23rd, we got near it and we we held that area, didn't we? And then we can see in here too where we broke that area and during 22nd rallied, broke rallied broke. And so what would what would we take from this? Well, there's two things to take from this because I'm always asked when you go through this, what why do we care? And I'm spending a lot of time on IGV on purpose. Um, it's really important to get this because the market's not going up candidly without it because it's that big of a wait. So, if you if you look at this and you start holding in here, that's great. If you start seeing something where you're holding and building in this area, great. If you start slicing through this area and it starts looking like this sucks out right in here, then that's going to be a problem. What we don't want to do, let me find that little sector right here and do a little rectangle. What we don't want to do is get into a situation like this where you start getting chopped up. We're over, we're under, we're over, we're under. Last time when we went through this was the 22nd to the 23rd, right? So you went from May 2022 to May 23. It took a year for that to consolidate, break out before it doubled, right? So we want to pay attention to this area big time because if we start seeing this kind of nonsense, you're going to want to stay out of the way. But if we're not looking at the 200 week and here's during the pandemic when it came down to that level which also matches roughly where the RSI is on the weekly and we just go through them all and look at them like here's 2016 we hit it perfectly formed a dogee and then we bounced and you can see it in here as well and I'm just going to go to the spots that I think are most important where you undercut here and then everyone's like oh well we're going to need to undercut this and not so fast and then it rips consolidates and goes higher right if we slice through like this and then you You can see how this area becomes a battleground. You push through it and then from here from 2009 all the way to 2010 you fought it. You fought it pretty heavily, right? And then you don't get anymore from here. That's all you get. So what we have to do is then look at the 2006 and we can't use the 2002 data on it because you don't go back that far. And I think that this is again really important for us to note. So what do you do with this? You make sure that you're staying above this. And if you start cracking it because certain names, and we're going to go through those names, certain names are really taking it on the chin because of their association here.
Now, I'm talking about this on a technical standpoint, and I want to be really clear about this before I go to the next part of what I'm going to go over with you. And I spent some time on this, but yep, it's coming. Here comes the the stool. So, and and this is really important, I think, for people to get. I have macros, fundamentals, and technicals. And that's the way the world works, whether you like it or not. And I don't really care if you like it or not because that's the way the world works. You the tail does not wag the dog. the world does not go up because you broke above a certain level. On the macro front, anything could change. And on the macro front and the fundamental front, we have to look at this and go, AI and AI is an issue and AI is definitely affecting SAS companies. It's actually affecting SAS companies faster than people think. Even the people that thought it was going to affect these companies, it's affecting them faster. But what you get is you get fear and greed. And we talk about this and I always talk about it from the the premise of I, you know, reflexivity, which really works for me. Um, there's a book by George Soros. I really don't care about his politics or what you guys think about politics. But it's called The Alchemy of Finance. I would strongly suggest that you read it, but it really dives into his theory on how he trades. And I do agree with it that the pendulum swings way too far one way and another way. And right now they're throwing everything out associated with this, which means that there's always something in there that's going to make sense. And we're going to get to that in a second. For me, you have the macro landscape, the fundamental landscape. How bad do some of these companies get hurt because of what's going on with AI? It could be really really bad and if it's way worse than people think that is going to be a problem for our theory here. So understand the fundamental side of this is not in here. I'm showing a chart and some lines. The fundamental side if this keeps happening and we have issues is a problem and that is one theory that could really hurt this trade on a fundamental basis. So please understand that as we get into this. A matter of fact I think ARC has a video out this weekend uh with Kathy Wood and you might want to find it, look it up. She actually gets into um that they were way off and that she thinks it's actually going to be more of a problem. But what are you supposed to say now since it was more of a problem and you didn't see it coming, right? So there there's that too. And that's not a dig on her. I mean, she found, you know, she found Bitcoin and Tesla before anybody else. So, um was talking about it and people basically laughing around the room. So, I I tend to listen to what she says, but I think she was late on this and because she was late on it, I think she's playing catch-up a little bit, but it's worth listening to. Uh she's definitely worth listening to.
I'm going to take this 55 and it usually is yellow. And what we're going to do is we're going to make this neon green today so that you can see it. Yay. And then what I'm going to do here is I'm going to turn off the 200. So you're now looking at a 55 SMA. And now let's really dig into it because I thought this was fascinating. Now, why am I showing this and why am I spending so much time on this? Cuz I believe the pendulum may have gone too far. There are holes in that theory and trying to catch a falling knife is a reason why your hands get cut. And believe me, I've been there. So, what I want to do here is I want to show you this. I use a 55 and on that 55 I use open, high, low, close. Just so you guys can see how I'm doing this so you can do it for yourself. What I'm doing is I'm going to take from where we broke into where the bottom is. And that number right there is 29.49%. And then I'm going to go back here from where we broke and you're going to see that that number is 26.24%. And what we're doing here is on all these big breaks is we're measuring how far do we get off? This one wasn't too bad. This was around 11%. And we're taking a look at these trough valuations and where do we trough out at before we get back over that level. So, if we looked here, what you're going to do is measure down to that low because you got over it here. And that's going to be roughly 28.7%, 28.5, and then you broke here. And then you're going to take out this low, which is going to be around 29% from that break to here. So, this break before you bounced was 28.4% or 29%. And then when you did it again to the low was what? Right? And so what you're doing by doing this, and you can see it right here too, right? 24%. And then what you're doing is you're constantly analyzing it. Now, obviously, it's going to get tighter and tighter as it comes along. 17.6%. But what we're doing is just looking for where does the band get too far away. And by doing this, it could give you an assessment of one thing, and only one thing. Here you are at 28.24%. And it's only going to give you, I want to be real clear about this, it's only giving you one thing, where you're going to snap back. Here's 20%. Right? So, when you start going through this, and I'll do 16. And there's two areas that were way way off on this, but if you average them all together, it actually comes in sooner. That's 21%. And the areas that are like way off on it are the great financial crisis and the.com bust. There are going to be a lot more. Like 46% is what you saw there. And then if you go back to here when IGV broke uh this level and then came down, I think it's like 58%. Um, completely different names, completely different time. It doesn't really matter, but I think it's worth mentioning it. So, if you average those big ones together and you took out the little ones, you're going to find the same thing. Here's what I think so interesting. The pendulum only goes so far before people start looking at this and the quants probably start looking at this and saying, "Hey, we're so far off from this break that we have to start looking at this and putting some money to work." And I think you're at a spot like that.
Now, here's the thing about this, and this is what we have to wrap our noodle around. Is this a bounce or is it a bottom? Here's the the truth. I don't have a clue. If if fundamentals start deteriorating, I don't have a clue. But how would you pick where that bottom is? Okay, here we go. So, so far I have given you reasons why I think that you're in a position here in my opinion that you are getting to a short-term bottom here and that you could bounce. Now, if I'm to look at something like this super long-term and I took this low peak here, right down here where we have that.com and what we're going to do is we're going to have to reverse these because if not, it's going to drive me nuts. So, I'm going to show you what I've done here. I've taken the top part, the top band, and I've taken the pandemic low. So, I've taken about five years of of here where you have your ultimate swing high and your ultimate low here. And what's so fascinating to me about this is even though the 50% is not a fib level, I always put it in. It's so interesting to see how you held that 50% here, isn't it? It's just so crazy how that works when you start measuring this stuff off. Anyway, you can see how you broke in here and you can see you're holding 50%. What I think is important for us to get about this is where where would that bounce be? And I'm I'm like I'm glad you asked. So I think that you could see some issues around 86, 87 and you're probably going to want to watch that area. Now if we got into this and we looked a little tighter and you say well what about you know shorter time frames and we can do the shorter time frames but I think the the 86, 87 when you start seeing this stuff in that range that's an area we'd want to watch. You can of course take this swing low right there and then take that high here and say, "Well, this is the most recent swing low and that is the most recent high and you've broken those areas." But what it does is it still kind of puts you in that 86 to 87 range and then if you flip, you'd push up. I do find that interesting and I do think it's something that we need to pay attention to. And I'm looking at it from a longer perspective, but there's more that you could do to kind of assess this. And this is where charting to me is so open to interpretation, but I I absolutely love it.
So, let me show you how I look at this. And people always do this stuff differently. And and I'm going to say it. You need to do it how you're comfortable with. I should get t-shirts made up that say that at this point, but watch when I drop it here like it's hot. Now, what did I just drop there like it's hot? Because that's what the kids say these days. It's called anchored volume profile. And all I'm doing is I'm anchoring a volume profile to it. No different than if I anchored a VWAP. But they are very different. And we're going to get to that. So, why am I spending so much time on this again? because I think it went too far. And I think there's certain names in here that are growing that you probably want to pay attention to. And for me, I like it. I I like when people just let it all burn. Puke it all out there. I you know, I don't know. It sounds awful, but like I just want the fear. Just panic. Get out. Get out. Get out of my trade so I can get in. So anyway, and I'm going to be very clear about this. Until Friday, I was short and and having a really good time and I was the cat's pajamas. But I just think you're getting to that point now where you really have to start looking at some of these. They're at such extreme levels and the question is if the fundamentals don't change guys maybe they maybe that, you know, maybe that is an issue. It depends how bad the fundamentals get. So but getting a bounce off this area back up into like that 97 range is possible. And what we want to do is we always want to look at when we drop something like it's hot. We always want to see is there something to it. And I think there is and and and so the other thing that I do is I will I'll use anchored VWAP and I don't want to turn this into an educational class but I like anchored VWAP to tell me the story because what it's telling me is what are the people here doing like the people that bought here. So if I anchor that VWAP right it's telling me a story of all the people that have traded since then from here over what what are those crazy kids doing you know and they're like well this is really the value low area. Okay. Well what happens when you break a value low area? That's what happens. All right. So where's point of control when you can't get through point of control? Well, here. Well, how'd that go for them? Not very well. See it? So this becomes an issue. And then of course the high is marked from the high. So that's not rocket science. But if this was your high, and I think this is where it gets super interesting because what you're doing as it's unfolding is it's telling you a story. And this is where I think it gets super interesting because if I drop it from here and you see from those people over what are those crazy kids doing? Well, that's their value low now from that area. And that's the point of control. See, tools are no different and charts are no different to me than frankly when people look at art and things like that. It's open to interpretation. So how you're interpreting it is up to you. But for me, if I look at something like this and realize that all the people that are in here, this is their point of control for those people. That's really interesting to me. And if I go for, well, these are the peak people. Where are they? And then I go, well, those peak people are here. Well, did we ever respect that area? Is that an area that respected? Yeah, you respected it right here. All right. So, where do we really run into problems here? Like if we could really push through like getting through the peak anchored VWAP would be really impressive. So, I don't know that we're going to be dealing with that right away. So, I think that you're better off saying, do we approach this from a bottom or do you approach it from a bounce? I think you're better off approaching it from the position of a bounce.
Now, I'll tell you why this is important to me. And if we look at these names obviously like Microsoft that's in here and we gap filled and does Microsoft hold its gap filled does it not? I don't know. I don't know if you hold does Oracle turn it around in here is that it is Oracle washed out. You know I've been saying people have been thinking that Oracle's been washed out since 180, 190 and it's still dropping. I think it's absolutely insane where they're allowing some of these names to get to. But I also think that it's going to be great for people long term to buy some of these names if they have like long-term outlooks. But are some of these names really at risk of having massive issues? Yeah, some of them are. And you're seeing that with something like Service Now? You know, nobody cares about their earnings because people are looking at this and saying they're going to be completely enveloped. And the question here is when you start looking at something like IGV, and I'm just going to show you the top 10 and you're taking out lows, you really want to pay attention to that. when you start realizing that A could only be dropping because of its association with IGV as they sell all the IGV names. See, remember it's all connected. So you have index, sector, stock. So when you're looking at the market and you go index, right? What's the NASDAQ doing or the S&P doing? Then you go sector, right? And then you go stock. So if they're selling and they're getting out of anything, it's guilt by association. It's just really that simple. So, what we're doing here is looking for the names that are in those top 10 that saying, "Okay, well, you're holding and you're going into earnings on Wednesday and last earnings, how'd we do?" Well, we did great. Okay, how' we do the earnings before that? Well, we did great. So, the question becomes, is this going to be a great earnings? Is it not? But, you know, you're about 4 days out, so we'll see how that plays. But understand why we're down. You could just be down because of the complete from 732 to 400. you could just be down for one major reason because of your association and your inclusion into IGV. So when you look at something like that and you go, well this is really where IGV started rolling over and since then all they've been doing is selling the name. So is it really an A problem or is it association of IGV? And you'll see this and this is what's so important to get about that because then you take a look at like PLTR and I think it behooves us to spend some time here.
Now, I don't get to use that word that way often, but we're going to do it. Say it with me. Left, head, right? So, left shoulder, head, right shoulder. Got it? There's your neckline. You broke. So, why are we looking at this? Well, there's a couple reasons. Is it breaking because of something that's fundamentally wrong with them? I'm not going to draw a stool again. You only get one an episode. But you see how you're breaking here? It's not great. And this is the point that I'm getting at. You don't have to look at this stuff and say, "Oh, he's saying we're going to bounce and this is the bottom." No, no, no. We're going to tie it all together for you in a minute here. But left, head, right, neckline broke. Here you are. Here's your break. Here's a divergence. Do you hold that level or not? Well, if you think about it from this perspective, what names are growing the fastest that are in IGV? Like, if you just wrapped your noodle around it, you look at those top 10 names, right? Is it is it now? No. Is it A? Yeah, it's A is definitely up there and you're coming in the earnings. But if you go to something like an A for example, and we looked at this and said, okay, here we are at 1.4 and that was Wednesday, November 25th. And then we went to Wednesday, 2024, and you go 1.2. Well, that's some growth, right? But that's not like mega growth. That's not like 100% growth. But surely none of those IGV names are growing at 100% year-over-year. Okay. So then we go and look at something like PLTR and then you go well that's 1.4 billion that they earned and that is in February. And then we would go here to February and see well that's 827 billion. Okay. So what we're doing is we're understanding that PLTR's revenues are growing at 100%. And that doesn't mean that the stock deserves to be
Where it is. But if you had to go and look and try to find the fastest growth engine in the entire group, which might be something that somebody that does index and that does sector and that does stock, they might be kind of a top down kind of guy and go, "Well, wait a minute. If IGV bounces, what's the strongest in the group? Who's got the highest growth out there?"
Well, do you think that they're going to buy the ones that's growing at 20% year-over-year? Do you think they're going to buy the ones that are going to have the most disruption and possibility in their business such as now or the ones that people are clamoring over because you know there's a 12% chance of a default on Oracle or do you think they're going to buy the one that's completely plugged in with the government that's growing at 100%. And I'm not saying you have to run out there, but to not understand where this is going and if we bounce, these are probably the names that you want to start, you know, just having on your radar and paying attention to.
But I don't think it's just here. And I think when we get into Bitcoin right now, you're going to see what I mean. Now, if you've been watching this channel for a while, you know that I've been talking about Bitcoin and that Bitcoin's going to crack. And I've been talking about this since up in here somewhere. And I'll show you exactly where we started really getting into it and talking about these levels was up in here. And we were talking about these divergences that you're seeing down here. And for time sake, we're not going to get into all of it again, but I said it's very similar to what we've seen in the past. And I still think you have a shot at getting to 50 to 48. But you have some news and you have some things out here that I'd be remiss to not point out.
So the very first thing that I would point out is that I'm at a 12 on the RSI. Now, how many times have we gotten to a 12 on the RSI? Well, we did get here in November and that marked a bottom where you went from 80 and then you peaked out at 100. Okay. And if we went here and this would be August 23rd, we kind of peaked out, went sideways before moving higher. And then we would look here in the 22nd. We kind of peaked right or sold down there and you went from 17 to 25. And then you'd have to go through these areas. Oh, that was the pandemic. Got it. And then we'd go to this one and 18 the first time we had some winning and liberation. Got it. Okay. Do they mark tops or do they mark bottoms? Bottoms. Does that mean that we bottomed? You have a lot of of heavyweight stuff on this one. And you know, whether or not it holds or doesn't hold remains to be seen, but can this be a bottom? Yeah, it can 100% be a bottom. It can definitely be a bounce area.
So, if we're going to look at Bitcoin that way, and again, you can see what we're doing here. We started with IGV, overlaid silver, overlaid Bitcoin. And I'll show you at the end why I'm doing it this way so that you can get it. But what we're going to do is something really simple. We're going to say that that's our bottom, right? That would definitely be it. And so then we would say that's our top. And that we would definitely say that would be it. And we're just going to drop some lines here. And we're going to see that the 50% demarcation line is exactly where from that level exactly where you're hitting and you stopped.
Now, why do you care about that? Why is that important? Now, let's just go through this. 50% is not what? It's not a fib level, but it's a demarcation line and it's a very significant one. It flips. When you flip 50%, you flip from net sellers to net buyers. You just you just do. Where'd you stop? 382. Where'd you have issues before? 618. Where'd you have issues before when you couldn't break through? 786. Where'd you have issues on the way down? 786. Why am I pointing this out? Because whenever we overlay a piece of technical analysis, please listen to this part of the video. Whenever we want to overlay a piece of technical analysis, we always have to ask ourselves, does it tell us anything or is it garbage? Garbage in, garbage out. And you can see these levels and go, "No, no, no. This is this is pretty telling. Like these, we want to watch these fib levels."
All right, cool. So, we know that if we're flipping this area in here, 712, that we could push up into this other area. And we know that there's other things that we could overlay. We could take that level right there and we could drop a fib to there and see if there's anything of consequence in there. We know that we have to watch the peak up here. If we ever get back up to this area and see if there's something here, okay, well, that respected it in here. So, we know that that's going to be, you know, a block of some kind that we'd have to worry about in there. So, what this is telling us is it's just telling us a story, right?
Now, we can also overlay this. Now what I've done is I've taken this low from August 24th and I just dropped a anchored volume profile there and I think it's pretty interesting from that that area what it's telling us. And you can see that that 96 was that point of control and you can see this area right in here is that value low from this area. I like doing it with pain points. You should do what you're comfortable with. And what you're seeing here obviously is this pretty ugly chart left head right. What I would say about it from a technical standpoint is the left is this big strong manly shoulder and this is a pretty weak trout-like shoulder, right? Nobody wants that coming at them. And so that always tells you that the head and shoulders are pretty they're usually a little weaker. But what do they really want to do here? And what's so important? 818 seems like an area of interest that we could get up to. So, I think that this run or retest has the ability to get up into here and then if you crack 60, all bets are off. If you crack 60 this time, you you have a five handle coming. And I think that you need to look at it that way. But I do think there's some other parts to play with this.
And so, what else I like to do to get a better color for it is I like to take the peak and see where all the players are. And you can see that those players are up here at that 87 and that 80 level in here is also marked by that level. So that just solidifies more and more that when you see an aid handle that that could be an issue. It's no different than when we do stuff like this with IGV and I'll clean this all off for a sec. But it's no different than when I do that with IGV and if I took this point on IGV and I drop it there and then I'd be like, "Oh, well there's the point. There's point of control which you broke and that could get you back to that 97 level." And then again, it's always telling us a story and that's why I I move it. You should do what you're comfortable with. Like I might take that peak and say, "Well, where are the peak people?" Oh, well that's interesting. The peak people are flipping the people that bought at the peak. The the you know the IGV lovers, they bought at the peak and that's their point of control. So if we flip a point of control here, you know, the value high is a possibility. All right, but you should do what you're comfortable with.
Let's get back to Bitcoin and stay on point because I think this is super fun and super important. So what happened here and why do we move? The biggest issue that I could tell you is that a lot of people seem to think that MSTR was going to zero. They were going to be forced to sell. MSTR had this level and I've been talking about it forever and I said I think you're going to come here to that 100. I actually said like 116 117 and then I think that you know you have a shot at holding. Now this is the definition of technically broken. You know you're trading if you go and look at any of those sites right now and I'm not going to do it. You're trading at a discount to the NAV. um if you do it on a dilutive basis or you do it on a basic basis obviously the difference is pretty big. When I ran it at 70 and you guys can always comment with links and ones you want to go to I think it was like at 70 137 or 138 on a completely diluted on a basic it's like 155 something like that. So the pendulum has what swung to all the fear side again which is why you start looking at this and saying well where could we get to?
Well, what we want to do with something like an MSTR, and I'm trying to get super specific here so that you guys can see this stuff, is red's on top means stop. Oh, we closed over the five. Probably means we're going to come back down, maybe fill, unless, you know, we fall off a cliff, which we could always do. But if we look at this right here, to me, I think it's super interesting because you get to that 153 level like right up in this area, we could flip, we could push. But if we start turning in here again, well, that's where it gets super interesting because you haven't really been doing that. You've been riding the lightning, as I refer to it, the whole way down, which made it a beautiful short. Uh just FYI, I've been short this or was short this uh for a very long period of time through MSTX. I've completely 100% covered it. Uh I also was short MSTR at 190 and I completely uh covered it and I actually have a small long on of all things. Um but I have it hedged, too. But anyway, so the point that I'm getting at here is I think that the pain is over the way he explained it unless we start seeing Bitcoin roll over. But I think that everyone was expecting Bitcoin to come out with some really really or MSTR to come up with some really bad news to drive it down and we didn't see that. And then you're going to go into these other catalysts and I think these catalysts are going to be really interesting with coin as well.
But you can see how this works. Now to be clear, this is not some super technical thing that you can't do for yourself. This is an eight, a five, and a three on a 15minute chart. That's all. It's an eight, a five, and a three on a 15-inute chart. You can create it for yourself. I can actually just put it out there. I should probably put it on Trading View so you guys can just grab it. But if you if you look at that, can we get over that? Maybe. Do we have a lot of work to do? Yeah, you have a lot of back filling and you have a lot of work to do. But when you start to look at this stuff, you know, are you at that point where you're completely washed out? So then you go and take a look at like the RSI here and then you're like, "Oh, well, how low did it get?" Oh, a 15. Okay. Well, how many times have we gotten to a 15 on a 4hour chart and then you just kind of drop the line and then you look at what happened. Well, kind of marked the bottom. Mark the bottom. Mark the bottom. Okay. Marked to bottom for what, like I don't know, maybe four hours before it rolled back over, right? So, maybe that's going to happen here. So, we have to watch that. This is a little different. See how fast it moved? So, you always have to pay attention to the speed, too. I think the fact that this is behind them is definitely something of interest and I definitely think it's something that we need to pay attention to. So I would watch this very very closely going into next week and you could actually use this as the canary in the coal mine.
Now I want to tie this all together because I think it's really important for us to get. So we have something like MSTR for example, right? And we have coin coming out with earnings this week. And so where where am I going with this and where where do I really want to go with it? So, I think personally that there were a lot of calls, margin calls, and it was tied to silver. It was tied to all this stuff, and it it was pretty ugly stuff. So, and we're starting to see this, okay, well, maybe we bounce, maybe we don't. Maybe it's a false H, maybe it isn't. You know, the line that I thought we could get to was actually in the 50s. It doesn't look like that's going to be on the on the menu, at least this time around.
So, if if silver holds and gold holds, and let's go take a look at gold for a second. which it's holding. And one of the things that I've been very clear about is that I would be looking at gold over silver because gold people are going to go out there from the on the commodity side, specifically central banks, and go, "Well, we didn't want to pay five something, but we'll pay four something." You're going to get more stability in gold because you have central bank buying, right? You just you just do. So, there's gold holding in that level. And then if you go here and look at silver and we look at that, right? Yeah, you're there, but it's nowhere near as.
So, if you get stabilization in silver, and we're going to just bring this whole thing home. If you get stabilization in IGV, not even if it goes up, it just bounces and then get stabilization in silver and IGV. If you get stabilization in the crypto market, right, after completely imploding, if all those things happen, you have to ask yourself a question because if you start looking at the cues and you look at something like XLF, which is actually turning and back over the 55, if you look at biotech and you see how biotech broke the 55 and it's flipping back over, what do you really need to focus on here? And this is what I think everybody's missing and this is where I'm going with it.
So, I'm going to clean all this off for a second. I'm going to drop this down. And what I want to do is just very simply, we're going to turn this into bars and we're going to go to a bare chart because we are not trending. So as much as I will use moving averages, I have to be very candid that moving averages are extremely lagging to begin with. Lagging to begin with, I'll say it that way. And then they are extremely lagging when you are what? In a nontrending environment. Are you in a trend? No. The the trend of what? A yo-yo. So, no, you're going sideways. And so, it's very different when we look at the cues. I'm just going to use the cues for a second. Stay with me. And then we look at the spy. And what's the difference? Well, the spy is not made up of just tech and biotech, right? We also have energy here and with all, you know, now we're sending warships over here and we're doing this and now you're watching XLE breakout and that's why CVX is doing this, etc., etc., right? Everybody remember what happened down here with the Nike sweatuit, etc. So energy prices are pricing and so what's that going to do when we look at crude? All right, that's going to push crude higher. All right, so we're getting stabilization in what? What else are we getting stabilization in? Well, you're starting to try to get stabilization in the dollar. Okay, are you getting stabilization with the new Fed chair? You are getting stabilization in the bond market. All right, so stabilization, I'm not even talking about up stabilization. Stay with me. You'll see where we're going with this. So let's go back to the spy and we'll leave it there. So we can understand why this is going higher because of the parts going higher. And you remember what we did in the beginning of this video is we showed how money was rotating a little bit. All right, just stay with
So if we look at the cues, I think this is really important to get. If I look at the NASDAQ in and of itself, I'm in a trading range. And just stay with me. You're in a trading range. We'd all have to agree that this is basic. All right. Now, we're doing all this and 20% of the NASDAQ is software and it's imploding. Not to mention the margin calls people are getting and the weight that's being pressed on this. NASDAQ's not really a lot in crypto. It really isn't. You know, you have a little waiting from the uh MSTR, but it's more the software. You're at about 20%. So 20% and that is the second biggest in comparison to what semis. So software 20%. This is what you're getting out of it. This is the move to the downside. So when you're looking at something like this, what do you think happens if the margin calls stop, which there were a ton of when silver when silver's down 37% in a day? Hey, if you think there's not margin calls, you're delusional, right? They're selling everything and they're getting ahead of it. So, we understand that part of it, right? We understand that IGV completely imploded. We understand that software is 20% of the NASDAQ. So, if IGV holds, and this is why we're spending so much time to decide if that's what's happening. So if IGV actually does hold in here, bounce or bottom or whichever it does, if it can just get some ground and hold and the Bitcoin can hold, which so Bitcoin and silver stop the margins, they stop reduction of margin and then if IG can get some some footing, you have the ability to break out of this. You could actually break out of this just by software stop going down and we stop seeing deterioration in silver and gold as well as Bitcoin. And I think that's really important to get and I think that that's why you have to monitor what you're monitoring. That's it.