Transcription
You don't have to fear the AI Bubble. Bubbles have occurred many times in this world. Stocks have fallen by 20% many times. That's why I say, you don't have to be surprised. 107 times in 100 years averages out to about once a year. More than once a year.
Yes, but it happens that we haven't seen a 20% drop very often lately. I've counted the statistics on how the recovery has been for these 107 times. But every time, it recovered.
Yes. Ah, this is good news. 107 crises have recovered, making customers and investors profitable every time. And today, even if AI bubbles, do you think AI will disappear? It won't. The winners in AI will remain, and AI will continue to be developed. And in the next 10-20 years, we might encounter new technologies that create new bubbles, which we don't know what they will be.
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You ask if AI will bubble. We need to look at it a bit first. This picture is an attempt to clarify that you don't have to fear the AI Bubble. Bubbles have occurred many times in this world. Stocks have fallen by 20% many times. So I went to study the stock market from 1929 to 2025 in 5 countries: the United States, the UK, Japan, Germany, and France. Counting only those that fell more than 20%. Do you know, Guitar, that in the past 100 years, from 1929 to 2025, which was last year, there have been crises where the stock market fell more than 20%? The US market, the S&P 500. The UK, the FTSE. This is the Nikkei. The German DAX. All of these fell by 20% in the past 100 years. Believe it or not, there were 107 times.
Yes. That stocks fell more than 20%. Yes. That's why I say, you don't have to be surprised. 107 times in 100 years averages out to about once a year. More than once a year. Yes, but it happens that we haven't seen a 20% drop very often lately. Therefore, seeing a 20% drop this year is not a problem. We saw it once in 2022, which was 3 years ago. And I'd like to share a bit about the recovery patterns in each crisis. I've counted the statistics on how the recovery has been for these 107 times. But every time, it recovered.
Yes. Ah, this is good news. 107 crises have recovered, making customers and investors profitable every time. So don't be afraid. So, if you invested in the S&P yesterday and said, "Oh, I'm stuck at the peak," don't be afraid. You will get out for sure. Let's see when you will get out. The recovery patterns in the past 107 times were V-shaped 18% of the time. V-shapes recover quickly. U-shaped takes about no more than 18 months, which is a year and a half. But this is 54% of the time, which happens frequently. W-shaped, this is like the Tom Yum Kung crisis. W-shaped, 21%. And no recovery, which is only Japan, 7% of the time. Only 7%. Someone asked when Thai real estate will recover. Thai real estate is likely in an L-shape, meaning no recovery. It will move sideways. For real estate, let's focus on valuation and dividends for now. Now, let's look at this. Notice carefully, more than 60%. Guitar, do you see? Recovery takes no more than 18 months. So, this means we can expect the stock market to recover if we are stuck at the peak and return to new highs. This is returning to new highs from before the fall. It takes about a year and a half. So, don't be afraid. In simple terms, we buy when the market falls. From the past 100 crises, global stocks have fallen by an average of 20-35%. But the Thai stock market has fallen by an average of 30-50%. We are worse than them because the Thai stock market is not very stable. Tom Yum Kung fell 87%. US financial crisis fell 51%. Subprime fell 55%. COVID fell 35%. This time, before it bounced back, Guitar, we discussed that when it was at 1,200 points, we had to buy because it had fallen below 30%. Remember? Buy the first tranche. This crisis fell for 3 years, down 36%, and then bounced back.
Yes, at least we got one tranche. And it bounced back to 1,600 points. So, to summarize for you, we find that we don't have to fear corrections. And this time, we have to say, "Hey, we're going to face all sorts of crises." It can happen right in front of us, without giving more information. This program has covered everything. You are. Yes, Mr. Vee. Yes. But this is complete. The rest will be strategies for buying stocks, which will be too long. Therefore, even if we think AI is a market bubble, I really don't dare to conclude whether this is the AI Bubble round or not. And this is counting 1, right? For a correction. I can't say because no one could predict any crisis. No one could predict COVID either. But if we count only technology crises, I want to go back and say that no technology crisis has ever been insurmountable, and no technology crisis has ever wiped out the old technology. Okay? So, rest assured. Hold strong stocks in businesses you believe are right in AI, and you will survive. If anyone wants to think about buying SpaceX, that's fine. But know that you must diversify your portfolio well. So that if SpaceX goes to zero, we don't die. Because they dream big. Those who dream big fall hard when they fall. Like those who expect a lot, when they fall, get hurt, or don't get what they expect, they will be severely hurt. The pain isn't about whether you win or lose. The pain is about how much you expect. So, diversify well. But we say that technology, no technology is ever completely wiped out. If we go back to 1835, how far back is that? 200 years. 200 years. Guitar, do you know what technology caused the stock market to explode? Because the American stock market had opened then. What caused the stock market to explode? Was it trains?
Correct. Trains. Yes. Trains that go "choo choo" every day. Rail trains, not electric trains, not Shinkansen. Not even the BTS. Trains. They opened the first track then. The cities were still deserts. It was the cowboy era. People riding horses and shooting, right? You probably remember them pioneering the United States in the early days. The 200-year history of the United States has this. Building railway tracks. When the first train ran, they immediately invested money. Everyone said, "Wow, open companies to build railway tracks." And where the railway tracks passed, they built cities. Right? Open parties. If you look at the past, cities were built. There was investment in buying horses, doing this and that. Building barns, raising animals. That was investment back then. That's technology. That's technology.
Yes, and it probably wasn't a technology that was outstanding by today's standards. If you want to see technology from 200 years ago, look at the Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand. You'll see what trains from 200 years ago were like. They are there. They are there. I mean the trains in the museum, not the ones running. The ones in the museum are good. They used steam power back then. Energy was still steam and coal. And there were many steel mills because a huge amount of steel was needed to make both trains and railway tracks. It turned out that these stocks rose until they went bankrupt. Until they went bankrupt. And that era was the era when...
But what changed it, Mr. Vee? Since there was so much investment and expansion? You said that it rose and then one day went bankrupt. What was the turning point?
No one knew at that time. Because everyone was rushing to invest. But the turning point might have been when everyone announced massive investments. And I don't want to say one is debt. The country's debt was high. And the second is that there were "the bags" too, as always. There are "the bags" every time. Even if there are, there will be one stock that I don't know if it should be counted as technology. It's the Nifty 50, 50 stocks in America. Many people search on Google. Nifty 50 is not Indian stocks. Nifty is 50 stocks. In that era of the bubble, there were "the bags." It would be stocks like McDonald's, Coca-Cola. No Apple, no Nvidia. McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Walmart, Johnson & Johnson, something like that. These are stocks that are old technology by today's standards, but they were new technology when the bubble burst back then. Coca-Cola was new technology. But think about it, Guitar. Wow, a drink that never existed before in the world. How did it come about? Like bubble tea, maybe? I'm not sure, but it was a super modern drink, very fashionable. Like beer came out, and then McDonald's. Think about it. They adapted and increased. And then there was later technology. From railroads, it became radio transistors. There was a rush to invest in radio waves. Then it burst when color television came out. Then it burst again when personal computers came out. Personal computers. Remember all the technologies I mentioned? McDonald's, Coca-Cola too. Personal computers. And then this is all technology-related technology. Notice that all the technologies I've mentioned are technologies that bubbled, and every technology has bubbled. That's why I don't dare to say AI won't bubble. But every bubble happens from excessive investment. At a certain point, everyone will stop investing, and there will be companies that cannot survive. That's all. But do trains still exist? Do color televisions still exist? Yes. Do personal computers still exist? Do McDonald's and Coca-Cola still exist? Do businesses like IBM, Verizon, AT&T, which were around during the dot-com bubble, still exist? Oracle still exists today. And today, even if AI bubbles, do you think AI will disappear? It won't. The winners in AI will remain, and AI will continue to be developed. And in the next 10-20 years, we might encounter new technologies that create new bubbles, which we don't know what they will be. It might be AI in people's brains. Or maybe chip technology. Or maybe technology for making robots that can replace us. We don't know what the future will hold. Or maybe we won't even reach it. Or maybe SpaceX will be "the bag" in 10 years. Because ultimately, humans can go to Mars. But with current technology, going to Mars takes over a year. We would have to be in zero gravity for over a year. That means we would break the record for astronauts who have been in space and returned. They say the first thing astronauts who have been in space for a year and returned to Earth encounter is what? They say their eyes will burst. Because our eyes already have pressure. This pressure is suitable for Earth's gravity. When it comes down, the eyes adjust quickly. They can't adjust in time. The pressure in the eyes will push the eyes out. Because being in zero gravity for too long will make your eyes burst. Think about it. So, ordinary humans are not as strong as astronauts. We go there for a year, go to Mars, and return to Earth. So, ultimately, we need to build a matter transporter. This might be a new technology. A matter transporter might be a new technology in the next 20 years. Or maybe Doraemon's gadgets. I think Doraemon's gadgets are starting to become real in many ways.
There will be many more innovations in the future, right, Mr. Vee? Because the world doesn't stop developing, no matter how many crises occur.
Yes. So, for example, today SNT is... But this time, if AI is going to explode or bubble, I still believe it won't explode yet. I still think there's time. It can still go up.
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