Transcription
Why was Bitcoin so exciting pre-Trump? It was this idea that Bitcoin is like a national strategic interest that people are going to rally around. And a little bit of that energy has been sucked away because it's AI. AI is the thing that has now found its place where it's it's it's it's a make or break kind of moment. We have to go all in and that is in itself creating a lot of that energy that I think Bitcoin wanted. Do you think that there's an intersection though between the two?
What's going on guys? Today we got a great conversation with Jeff Park. Jeff is a partner and chief investment officer at ProCap Financial. In this conversation, we talk about the Fed meeting, why Easy Money is coming back to the market, what's going on with Bitcoin's price, why everyone is so bad sentiment-wise online, and then we even get into what is going on with Pro Cap Financial, how we closed the deal, and what's the vibe, what are we trying to do, and where can you go learn more information? All that and more in this conversation with Jeff Bark.
All right, Jeff. Interest rate cuts, my friend. and we are headed real deep into the uh deep into the pool uh for QE. It's back like we are going to get loose monetary policy and easy money. What do you think the implications of the Fed's decision here is?
>> Well, it's the last meeting of the year. I think that's why it's especially topical because it'll set the tone for 2026. So, as you said, the rate cut I think is a no-brainer. It's priced in and Het has even inclinated that we should look towards accelerating those rate cuts. Um, and we know it's basically driven mostly by the uneasy feelings we have on the labor market. Um, and I think the labor market challenges we're seeing will probably continue in 2026. So, the recent data point we have in October's uh jobs numbers was that there were few things that were happening that are at some level uh contradictory, right? So you saw that there is uh new openings more openings than before but you also saw that people were fired more and so you're getting more openings but people are getting fired and then the quits rate also is going down which means generally people are feeling a little uneasy about quitting because they don't feel the economic security to pursue something else and they're not going to take that risk. So these all these factors point towards labor markets still being a little bit of a conundrum and I think that's what the Fed is focused on in December and it's going to be focused on 2026.
If you look at the numbers and actually kind of look at the qualitative aspects of what's happening, what you're seeing is that yes, there are new jobs being added, but the jobs are coming from what I would call um service level where people are not really looking at as permanent openings like these are kind of like maybe even driven by some seasonal aspects of needing more Starbucks barista kind of stuff, right? These are not what I would call like permanent fixtures of people who find security in the jobs. And the layoffs, they're coming from, as you already know, from highquality sectors like the tech space. And those are the jobs that people want more of. So you're seeing the quality of jobs changing beneath you, even beyond just the numbers themselves. And I think that's the story that will continue to determine how the Fed categorizes labor weakness going forward. Uh so that's why I think it's important that we have that in context.
So really there's there's a few things to keep in mind. One is will we continue to accelerate more rate cut? I think that's on people's mind all the time. We know we're getting 25 bips, but the question is like how much lower are we going to get in 2026? And that pace of rate cut I think is really important. Um and then the second thing is really um more kind of about beyond rate cuts like what are the other policies that the Fed is going to implement to ease up liquidity as there are strains that are being seen in the system.
So on the acceleration of rate cuts, the US is on a particular spot because we're a little bit off sync with the rest of the world. Like Japan is raising rates. Australia just yesterday announced that they're probably going to end easing policies. So we're moving in a slightly different direction with the rest of like the global um supply of capital, if you will. And and that's a little bit um unnerving especially because if you believe like rates are uh the neutral rates are determined by some equilibrium between investment and savings. We've seen a clear big investment boom here, right? The AI boom is real and there is investment capital flowing in and a PhD and economist would tell you that means that our neutral rate should actually be going higher. Uh all things equal with investments being um driver function than savings. So I think that piece of cutting is uh is is up for question.
And then really I think the the billion dollar trillion dollar question really is what is the Fed going to do for liquidity easing purposes? um as QTS just ended in December 1st. And here we constantly hear about how the concept of bank reserves um right now at $2.9 trillion is not a number that we know to be like steady for where the banks may need additional liquidity for. And so that I think is the thing that is driving a lot of unease. you know, I think over um if you look at the pricing of the overnight uh GC repo rates, you'll see that it's trading around 4.25% today. And that means by end of the year, people are expecting there to be a a bit of a tightness because there's always tightness at the end of the year with the Fed and the banks kind of reshuffling all their balance sheets. And 4.25 is 60 bips higher than what we think the Fed cut rate is going to be. I mean, that's a pretty big spread. So the market is anticipating there's going to be tight liquidity. Um and of course that is compounded by the fact that there's just been more Treasury bill issuance which is sucking up liquidity from the markets. And so this is why people think we're going to have some kind of um liquidity injection as early as January. And some people think it will happen within Q1 but not January. But there's a lot of expectation that starting January, bang, right in the new year, we are going to have some kind of liquidity injection from the Fed that is going to have to be a part of helping us discover what this ample reserve capacity should be around this $2.9 trillion on the bank reserve side. And of course on the other side of that balance sheet in the leisure booking is the is the central bank's reserves at 6.5 trillion.
>> Now what's interesting to me is if you read headlines, you'll see headlines that say uh everything's amazing. you'll see that it's literally next to a headline that says everything is horrible. Uh both of them seem to be true and I think that what you're highlighting here is like there is a lot of investment going into AI. At the same time there is no investment going into other industries. And so what I've always thought is very interesting is uh you know theoretically uh or an academic may look at an economy and they kind of like broad brush stroke you know is there investment is there not well what sector how much you know when sequence right there's all these kind of different things and um it's kind of like inflation like different people experience different levels of inflation depending on what the actual inflation in the economy is but also like what is the basket of goods they buy and all that type of stuff. The reason I bring that up is because it does feel like there's obviously in uh investment in AI. Um a plethora of investment is going there. Um but the Federal Reserve only has a one-sizefits-all monetary policy, >> right? >> And so they have to almost like put weight on do we covet the AI industry more or less than maybe other industries. And it just seems like once you get into the like minutia of thinking through this stuff to simply answer the question of like does the United States have investment or not. It's a little bit harder than just like you know oh yes there's a ton of money flowing into one sector because I think there's a lot of people in many sectors who are saying wait a minute we have none. We we actually see a exit of talent and capital and you know productivity. And so how do you think through that as an investor and trying to understand how the Fed is thinking about making these decisions?
Yeah, you're hitting on a really good point which references back to the quality of the actual uh changes matter beyond just the numerical aspects as we talked about with unemployment and jobs number and quantitative easing too uh as people are anticipating we'll make a revival for I actually do think it will have industrial elements to it because we're at that point where fiscal and monetary uh functions in relations to government expenditures and private sectors are all kind of merging uh and in a weird way quantitative easing signifying on the quantity of money ignores the fact on the quality of money right actually where is this money going for what purpose to drive what qualitative outcomes for society at large so I think personally that we're going to venture into a new era where the next versions of QE will look maybe qualitatively eased than quantitatively eased and it's because the K-shaped economy is real in everything we see we see it in the labor market. But we also see it in the ways that goods and services are being priced differently. There's inflation in certain things. There's deflation in certain things. But this is the problem with society at large where the things that are experiencing inflation are generally the things that people need beyond kind of goods, right? So when you talk about like education being expensive, healthcare being expensive, um services being expensive, child care being expensive, all that stuff, it's hard to know if AI can actually reduce that as much because ultimately it's human capital, human labor, and these things of course then become a little bit circular because we're all trying to grow the economy where everyone's playing a role in in contributing their human capital, right? Mhm.
>> And so the reason AI is so fundamentally different is because it has the potential to replace human capital. And that's why it's just categorically different than any kind of technical technological revolution in the past. It's not just an amplifier of human capabilities. There are certain jobs that will completely be eliminated where if you think about the way society is generally structured, we've always still needed jobs for kind of the um base of the pyramid if you will because it's a part of like the social contract of earning a livelihood to participate in society, right? And those are really the people most at risk. And so even when we think through kind of the migration of human capital that's been happened post all the tech technological growth, we ignore the fact that like part of why we're here in this great movement of populism is because so many people have still been left behind and has never recovered, right? Like the coal miners and whoever was in that industrial sector actually never recovered into doing anything else. And so imagine that happening at the level where we're now talking about quality of jobs being fundamentally different. I think um this is where QE will just have to look different because it's going to have to start being targeting a little bit more specific industrial policies, specific kinds of jobs creation and like a specific kind of growth that is good for society at large. And as you said, right now all of it being skewed in AI is creating this K-shaped market as well as in the S&P 500 where the top 10 companies are just dominating the rest of the index. If you take out the top 10 companies and look at the rest, they've generally not been performing very well. So, I mean that alone tells you that everything is hinged upon the quality that is not being as as widely dispersed across societies that should be at this point.
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Now, when you see um that dispersion, it does feel like um the Bitcoiners are doing really well if you just objectively look at the price of Bitcoin. Um but they're not very happy online. uh in in a weird way, uh they're doing great, but they're miserable. Whereas, uh I actually think there's a lot of people who uh feel like they're happy, but they're not doing that well. And it's kind of this weird dynamic. Um and uh it makes me wonder, the Bitcoin price is actually doing better than you would think by looking at sentiment, but it is not doing as well as people expected. And so like the gap between reality and, you know, expectations is where unhappiness lives. I think that's why people are so unhappy. Um, but how do you read into this idea that you know the Bitcoiners I don't know what the latest numbers but like I think the compounding or growth rate of Bitcoin over the last 3 years is 72%. There's not many people who should be upset. >> Yeah. >> Online there are a lot of people upset and so like that feels very different than maybe you know there's certain stock indexes that if you're like an emerging markets exposure you haven't really done that well over the last four or five years in comparison to Bitcoin. But a lot of those guys seem pretty happy. Maybe it's just like lower expectations.
Yeah, I think part of it is because uh people look at Bitcoin to most first and foremost uh compete with gold and rest of the precious metals category. And in that lens alone, it's empirically true that Bitcoin has lagged a little bit this year uh more so than it probably would have been uh priced for. I think it's I think silver is having an incredible year where uh of course there's been decades when silver did nothing. So it's it's also kind of over a long period of time silver is not that exciting but it's up you know more than 60% this year based on a lot of things um beyond just uh being a precious metal for industrial uses and because of these elements where there's so much growth that is happening that is driven by real narratives that isn't focused on Bitcoin because if you think about Bitcoin the focus on Bitcoin's growth is monetary debasement the things that are driving markets today in the optimism behind AI is a seeking for like better productivity gains that are that are like a little bit antitheical to Bitcoin. So if you think about like the the culture in which like people are investing for Bitcoin versus the optimism that you otherwise see in like high-tech growth opportunities like I would say almost that mood is not even compatible. And right now what we're seeing is an over kind of winning of the optimism behind like uh the AI gold rush. I don't even know if it's optimism in the sense that people are really excited about it, but there's almost like an existential need for AI to succeed at the at the at the national public and private sector that is now superseding the national interest for Bitcoin to win. Cuz if you think about like why was Bitcoin so exciting pre Trump, it was this idea that Bitcoin is like a national strategic interest that people are going to rally around. And a little bit of that energy has been sucked away because it's AI. AI is the thing that has now found its place where it's it's it's a make or break kind of moment. We have to go all in and that is in itself creating a lot of that energy that I think Bitcoin wanted. Do you think that there's an intersection though between the two, right?
Like um I I do think that there's something very interesting about uh the argument that people always made of like Bitcoin will be money for machines, right? I've made that argument. Uh I think stable coins now all of a sudden become something that people like, oh wait a second, medium of exchange maybe kind of uh co-opted a little bit by the stable coins and maybe that's a good thing, you know. Um but it does still feel like these two things have the same vibe and energy. They have a lot of the same people who are interested in both. Um they also are getting at the same thing which is like driving efficiency, driving global, you know, kind of usage. Um they need power, right? I mean there's a lot of these components that are very similar. So do you think that there is some intersection point there?
There's definitely an intersection on what you just highlighted in that energy is valuable and both sector recognize this. Both recognize compute and power is important and it can be monetized. Where they differ is that at least within the construct of productivity gains coming from AI toolings, those things have utility that you can see today. It's pretty palpable that it's changing people's lives. With Bitcoin, you can't see it as easily here in the US because again, we're lucky to have a financial system that functions really well that we don't really need to think about Bitcoin existing or not having a big difference in your life. But if you ask others in the emerging markets that actually are experiencing hyperinflation, they would probably index to Bitcoin being much more valuable than whatever productivity tools they're gaining from becoming an S tier employee or employer from the A tier that they were at today. Meaning the story of AI is actually pretty elite. The story of Bitcoin is the opposite. It's meant to help those at the very bottom. And so in that sense, the constituents are really, really different. And Americans just happen to live in this middle ground where Bitcoin is not predominantly being used for them in that way beyond the fact that it's a little bit more about like wealth creation. So I think that's important like context to have in mind.
At the same time like you know what what's happened with uh crypto as an industry within the institutional uhization that's been happening is maybe moving in a slightly different direction than the original ethos of Bitcoin 2. So take for example like the three major players that I think have made splashes this year for coming into crypto in a mainstream way. You got uh first and foremost Stripe right? Stripe is coming out. They've launched Tempo. They're going to compete in the uh payment processing lane as well as money transfers. And just uh two days ago, they announced their pricing for USDC transfer is going to be uh 1.5% for for payments. 1.5% is definitely cheaper than IC fees, maybe by half. So yes, you're gaining some benefits, but man, you're still paying 1.5% to do a payment processing that otherwise crypto would have said should be well below like 20 bips.
>> So what exactly is the purpose of um USDC in the way that Tempo is being built by Stripe? It's not super obvious that the value proposition makes sense for Americans. again like we we are probably not going to use Stripe to buy uh stuff if we can just kind of do it in different ways where it's not a huge difference versus like a credit card where they get rewards and stuff. What matters is actually global remittances, right? Like that's where the utility comes from because there you're paying 8 to 9% just to move money around the world and maybe there's an option to pay orders of magnitude less. So is that good for like crypto? Is it good for Americans? Is it good for emerging markets? Like now we're starting to see like there's just different beneficiaries and losers potentially on on the relative value proposition. Um and then you also have uh Citadel like Citadel has come in and made a variety of interesting investments and the latest was that they invested in Ripple. And you know, many people will throw their hands up in the air and have controversial opinions about what Ripple means to this industry, but it's the fact that one of the largest checks that they've ever written went into Ripple. And so, is that good for crypto? Is that bad for crypto? I think it just generates a lot of like unease about like what is the long-term mission of where Bitcoin and crypto is trying to go? And same I would say BlackRock being the third player that has made a splash in the space not just for the ETFs but because now they are staunchly behind tokenization as an effort that they want to endorse. And if you listen very carefully about how they talk about tokenization, you'll still see that it's not totally this like distributed ledger system of asset ownership that has been the manifesto driving crypto venture capital from 7 years ago because Black Rockck is mostly focused on cost reduction. They're thinking about tokenization to get rid of a lot of these inefficient back office functions and having systems like that can speak to each other more but not I would say necessarily make it like permissionless. So there's a gain of function that's happening from an efficiency perspective but from an asset ownership perspective it's still very much a controlled garden in which they want to be the ledger. Right? And that's and that's natural because they are a financial institution that has to serve a certain function within the regulatory arena that we have. And so is that like the tokenization that we imagine we would happen uh we would have where we have self-custodial aspects of it. You know it's a little different. So I think all these things are kind of coming into the picture a little bit where um it's affecting crypto sentiment broadly. Uh and then of course the price action beyond Bitcoin has been really really quite poor. Um so I would argue still that Bitcoin is probably the only categorical crypto asset that has found product market fit that is globally and widely accepted at large both across retail and institution. I have a hard time uh to say that is the case yet for almost any other crypto assets. Not to say it couldn't happen, but it's still very much a discovery, a journey of finding functions where there's gains to be had that people are able to back and find value cruel for themselves in participating.
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Yeah, it makes uh makes sense to me. Um, last thing I want to talk about, uh, Procap Financial, we closed the deal finally. Um, we took uh Procap BTC combined it with Columbus Circle Capital Corp. uh which was uh a dispack transaction that closed last Friday. We began trading on Monday under the ticker BRR. So Procap Financial is now officially a public company. Um talk a little bit as to um you know kind of the general approach here and you know maybe one of the things that people can go check out is we've got the website up now. also procapfinanicial.com and we've got a nice little manifesto and kind of like a this is what we believe right which I think um as people have asked me you know uh kind of what are you guys thinking here how are you guys thinking about this I send them that and then all a sudden they're like got it right pretty clear u h how are you thinking about it
Yeah, look it's an exciting moment um it was a long journey and the sentiment in crypto can change very quickly over time um but what I know deep in my heart is that there is a core centering that is amongst us, which is a cultural value proposition of what Bitcoin represents to us beyond just the price. And if you think about really hardcore Bitcoiners, what they're really driven by is a sense of self-determination, right? They want control for their own destiny and their own outcomes. And they want transparency and neutrality uh and the ability to basically be a sovereign individual. This can apply to so many things in life beyond just buying Bitcoin that I think is almost pricelessly more important than how much money you made buying Bitcoin dayto-day that goes up or down. I mean, we all think it's going to go up, but you know, we shouldn't judge the quality of a mission based on kind of just the monetary gain and losses or alone. I think there's a greater kind of value that can be had. And one of the bigger misgivings in Bitcoin that I've always felt is that it tends to be a little bit pessimistic about the world, right? It's about this idea that debasement is going to lead to nihilistic outcomes. And the thing that makes Bitcoin useful is the scarcity. So we all have to fight each other to have the scarce thing that no one else can have. And anytime there's an ETF or options, oh my gosh, it's paper Bitcoin. It's coming for me. Like this idea is very much rooted in scarcity. But I think what you and I have imagined is Bitcoin can represent so much about the abundance of the things to come. Not because Bitcoin itself is abundant, but because the way you can train your mind to appreciate Bitcoin will teach you a skill that is so valuable to think about the world in such an abundant way. So we've talked about things like predictions market that has now found product market fit now than I would say back even 6 months ago where the clarity of you know how we'll come to the US market has been a little bit challenged. Now we have Poly Market on your phone. So this is a moment that has arrived and equipping people with the ability to have a sense of self-determination to rise above it all is actually how I think we can really change the world and Bitcoin can play a role but we can compound on top of that with a lot of different value acral mechanisms that are possible that I think should be really exciting and all of us should broaden the aperture to think about the opportunity set beyond just the you know asset of Bitcoin.
Mhm. I I do think that there's something about um this feeling that people have where technology should solve my problems. It should make my life better. It should make everything around me cheaper. It should make my quality of life go up. It should make me happier. Um there are some people who have harnessed that for sure. And I tend to think that they are in the technology industry, right? They kind of have an expertise and experience. Um but now the challenge is like how do you bring that to everybody, >> right? And obviously the negative side of this is people say, "Oh, we're going to lose our jobs," or, you know, there's gonna be these issues. Um, but if you actually look historically at what has happened, you know, I always go back to, I think it's like 1870 to 1900, 1870 really probably is a good time frame. Um, there's a uh a great book, I'm forget the guy who wrote it, but uh it's basically like the history of American growth. And Dave Colum at uh uh Cornell um suggested I read it one time and I started reading this thing and all I keep thinking about in this book is homes had no electricity, no running water, no infrastructure, no telephones, no, you know, there was like completely unconnected. And so you had like a farm, you had a house, you had to like travel places to do things, right? I mean literally you were like a single, you know, uh uh unit of account if you will in kind of housing. >> Yeah. >> And this book talks about basically two things in particular really changed the way that uh society interacted and commerce and all this stuff. Uh one of the most important inventions was the elevator, the ability to go up rather than have to go out, right? Um so you can create density now. And so like you don't think about that, right? But like yeah, that's been pretty helpful for New York City, many other cities around the world. But then also the connection of these homes where then they had roads and running water and electricity and you had telephones and all this kind of stuff. Now you plugged yourself into a network. And one of the things that I I constantly go back to is I think what we're trying to do is plug a business into a network. That network is there's the Bitcoin network, right, and the balance sheet and kind of what we can do there. It's also plug it into this idea of like an independent investor and and kind of the rise of these independent people who get their information online and allocate their capital directly and are chasing independent uh kind of financial independence. Um, but it's also plugging yourself into almost like a technology matrix of there's AI and there's Bitcoin and there's drones and rockets and humanoids and you just go through all this stuff. You just feel like the world is rapidly changing.
Yeah. And I think maybe the the way that I have come to sum this up um and we've we've got on the website, you know, I constantly keep saying it online. It's just like the age of abundance is coming and Bitcoin is the hurdle rate. And when you think of those two things, it's like look like there are positive benefits and then every capital allocation decision is against Bitcoin as a return profile. And if you can hold those two things in your head, I do think it gives you kind of a nice framework for kind of, you know, not only where is our business going, but where is the world going.
>> Yeah. No, it's well said. I think um technology by and large has been so useful for people because it gave us time and when you think about the inventions that you mentioned, a lot of the things as we've known it in the past are what I would call like extrinsic kind of value gains where um it's pretty linear. Like again like working a little bit longer because you have light on that you didn't have you know lights before because there was no electricity or elevators or cars that help you transport faster. Like you're gaining time and time that you can then spend for other things which can be for investing your own personal growth or consumption or um you know what whatever you want but you got time. The thing that's happening with the most recent rounds of technological growth is that it's actually not linear because the growth that they're enabling is very intrinsic to you. So it's not just about me going from point A to point B faster. You and I can ride the same car and the net benefit is the same for you and me. But if there's like a tool that's going to make me better and you better, well now it's not the same outcome. It's not like we both just shared a car from point A to point B. It's how did you use that tool? How did I use that tool? and actually knowing how these things can help you intrinsically become better is a different um benefit. So here again I think there's an element of self-determination like elevators are great and everyone benefits from the same way but the but the but the most cutting edge exponential things that are happening that are now going to improve the principal like personhood of you they need to be um used in the most proper way for which you have to assign like a value proposition for and uh that's a mindset
>> I actually think it's a mindset much kind of like you'll still see old people who are like not into reading emails and they want to print stuff and you know it's fine they can get by like that but you know I would say we're kind of at that inflection point where um if you don't embrace these uh these changes to help your own productivity you're going to be left really behind like even when you look at Wall Street you'll still see some of the senior bankers that are like you know 50 plus that don't know how to use Excel and it's fine because they actually have a whole world in which they built their livelihood around relationships and broad-based conceptual thinking and they get to the goals they need and they can utilize other things. But you have to imagine they grew up with a calculator, right? They they were literally punching buttons in a calculator. um you know the generation going forward I mean they're going to be using all these toolings and ways to help become better investors, better thinkers, becoming more independent and uh part of this ethos I think really does come back to Bitcoin where like understanding the frontier of how these things can help and change is exactly how you also improve yourself and your own society at large. So it's really an exciting time. I I actually think the age of abundance is is is so there's so much we need to uh root for and be optimistic and optimism actually is not as easy as people think. I think there's this general misconception too that optimism is like a foolish thing and so pessimism is actually the educated kind of um take on like being right. But it's my opinion quite the opposite. The world is in a state of entropy always by the steady state of physics. The world is always falling apart. It's very easy to be a pessimist. It's actually being an optimist that takes a lot of work and a lot of deliberate conscience uh appreciation because you're fighting against the tide of what general entropy looks like in the world. And we all need to train our minds to be more optimistic about the future.
>> I uh I couldn't agree more, my friend. All right, we'll do this again next week. Sounds great.