Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review with a BTC that is dumping rather significantly. Today, we will focus on that. I will share a trade that I took. We will also look at the economic announcements that came out today. We will do a review of Ether cryptos, the altcoins that are dumping and continuing to do so, and that are simply following BTC. And we will talk here about the US market, which gave us a rather bullish move at the start of the session, only to then have a downward correction. So we will focus mainly on that. I'll start directly with the economic announcements. We were expecting this afternoon at 2:30 PM the job creations, the NFP, and the unemployment rate. Okay? I had shared a small analysis here on Discord. Don't hesitate, those who aren't there yet, I told you approximately what we could expect this afternoon and especially what to watch out for depending on the results for a bullish scenario or simply a bearish scenario. And we had these data points come out. So, in the end, an NFP largely above expectations, which is not incredible. Why? Well, because having a lot of job creations above, in any case, expectations, shows us that the economy is rather solid and that pushes the Fed not to lower its rates. So that's a first point. And then, well, we still had the unemployment rate here which is above expectations. So on that, it's rather good, because an unemployment rate that rises means that the labor market is loosening. So, in the end, we are on what is called a mixed bag. An economic announcement that is rather bullish, an economic announcement that is rather bearish. Except that in this kind of market context, we don't want a 1/2, we want a 2/1 because we have a downward trend here. So automatically, when we are on a 1/2, the market will continue in the direction of its trend, and above all, there is a large gap between what was expected for the NFP and the final results we have with 119,000 job creations. So that allows us to have data and to drive the next potential rate cut which is expected for December 10th. Will we ultimately have a rate cut or not? Well, we'll see. In any case, we see that we were at 50/50. Now, we are only at 62/37. So I took a trade today. It's quite rare that I trade announcements in general. Now, here, I saw the announcements come out. For me, I had a rather bearish sentiment with the announcements here. And to my surprise, I saw a market that simply pumped and swept the stops. We see it clearly here with this wick. We came to target those highs. Okay. So a big pump for me, there was an anomaly here. That means the price was not following the announcements that had come out according to my personal interpretation. After that, I can be wrong, that's another thing, but according to my personal interpretation, the market was not going in the right direction. Okay. And immediately after, we had a selling reaction here, that's when I entered with a stop loss above the wick, because I don't want to hold a position if ultimately the market is totally irrational and goes up. And also my interpretation could be wrong. I took a partial take profit on a part below these lows, simply because we had quite a few lows to target. We could potentially have a bullish reaction. So, I put a partial take profit here, then a stop loss at break-even, and then I had a total take profit. I let my trade run for quite a while during this entire decline, and I exited at this level as soon as I saw that we started to consolidate and perhaps even put in a bottom. We see the rebound afterwards. So we can say I did well to exit. When we zoom out, we say, "Yeah, you exited too early." Yes, we can start from that premise, except that I respected my plan. The goal of this trade was not to hold the entire trade until the lowest point. Because, one, I can't know that. It's always easy to say in advance, "Oh, if I had done this, etc." I positioned myself here, I respected my plan. After that, I can't predict it, and I remind you that in trading, you can't know the entirety of a move. It's impossible to predict an entire move. And that's something you need to understand. If you have problems with that, if you want to trade the entirety of a move, buy the highest point, buy the lowest point, you have psychological problems, you have methodological problems. If you want to work on that, I told you yesterday, I've told you recently, I have a complete program for that, the "Become a Trader" program, which will clearly allow you to eliminate all these biases, eliminate all these problems with your psychology. There's a module just for that: mindset and psychology, managing your emotions well, developing your method, your trading setup. All of that are things that will allow you to eliminate these biases you might have when looking for a position, looking for the highest point, and looking for the lowest point. You don't need to trade the entirety of a move to perform. So, if that interests you, you have the first link in the description, and I remind you, I talk about it a bit more often lately, but the program is entering a new era soon. I remind you, starting in early January 2026, the "Become a Trader" program will evolve with much more individualized, much more reinforced support to simply allow you to be profitable more quickly and more effectively. So, that's it for this trade and for the announcements that came out today. Now, we have a BTC that is not reacting very well. Yesterday, we had a small attempt at a bottom around $91,000-$90,000 because we briefly went slightly above the 15-minute mark, we didn't manage to hold it, and we immediately re-entered. And for now, well, we continue in this downward trend and we are going back to test lower levels. This $86,000 level is the next target. So, we have a market that is simply bearish. We remain in a bearish flow. No bottoming for now. We are clearly in an area that I shared here with the on-chain analysis that we can perform. We have here in black the evolution of BTC's price and in red and white the profits and losses, simply. And we can see that well, when we have big drops like we had here in June 2022, the FTX crash, and we have big losses here that are of course realized when we have big dumps, when we make a new all-time high, etc., we have big gains. We can see that sometimes we have phases where we have small bottoms that can occur, or rather small corrections that can occur, like on August 5th, like here in April, March-April, we see that we have small peaks on the loss histogram. Okay? And that's where we see long-term bottoms and medium-term bottoms. When we have small drops like, for example, here, here, or like we have currently, we are on small losses. The histogram shows us that it remains light. Okay? It's not as significant as what we've experienced here. In general, we can be on medium-term bottoms, except that a medium-term bottom can of course turn into a long-term bottom. And we clearly see this kind of peak, these are bear market bottoms. These are levels where, in general, we are not far from a major long-term bottom. So, we are a bit in this phase where if we don't put in a medium-term bottom like we've seen here, like we've seen here, it means that we can expect this kind of peak in the coming weeks, coming months. That's how I interpret it because at the beginning, we see it clearly, we have a small medium-term bottom that turns into a bigger peak and then into an even bigger peak. Will that be the case here? I don't know. What is certain is that from a technical point of view, we are in a very important zone here. If, for me, the structure has truly been inverted here, if we have gone below this level, if we have had this M top, for me the structure has been inverted. Which means, for me, we are entering a bear market. Now, if we start from the premise and look for major significant lows, we put ourselves entirely in monthly view. Okay, in monthly view, we can assume that here we have a significant low, here we have a significant low, here too, and here too, and that the structure is not inverted in monthly view. That's something I can understand and it's true. For me, we have an inversion of our structure on weekly. Okay? So we are going from an uptrend to a downtrend, but on monthly, the trend is not inverted. And here we are in a zone where buyers must show themselves if they want to defend this low and make a higher low than the previous one. That's why if we break this low, we would also break the monthly structure, and then we could expect to retrace to much lower levels. That's why, as I showed you here, we are really in a zone where we can put in a bottom, but for now, what is complicated is that we have no sign of a bottom. For me, the best thing, as I said, is to be patient for those who have cash. Yes, we are coming back to test interesting levels. If someone who has never had BTC and is thinking, "Is it starting to become interesting?" Yes, after a 30% drop, it can become interesting. Clearly, if I even draw a Fibonacci, we are not far from the 0.382. You see, the 0.382 are slightly lower. The first stop is an interesting first level to potentially start exposing yourself. Now, you don't have a perfect entry like if you were positioned in our long-term re-accumulation zone between 0.18 and 0.786. But you will never get the lowest point. That is to say, the person who tells you, "I didn't expose myself at all during the entire drop on BTC and I entered here at, oops, at $80, sorry, at $15,000," is a liar. Okay? I started to expose myself here, here, here, and here. Okay? Because I estimate that even here, I had taken some long positions, but this is long-term spot, of course. So, we can't get the lowest point. However, at 0.382, I didn't position myself because I didn't like what I was seeing. Now, it's up to you, it's simply a matter of adjusting your exposure level based on your convictions, based on probabilities, based on the cash you have available. And that's it. Let's say, let's say you enter here, the market does this, you enter there, the market does this, you enter there, we have something like this. Okay? And when we are there, I'm not saying we will do this, but let's say, when we are there, you won't say, "Ah, it's a shame, I entered at $85,000." However, yes, when we are there, you will say, "Ah, it's a shame, I entered at $85,000." So, it's possible we won't do that. It's possible we'll just do this. Okay? And then the cash you have on hold will never be executed. That's the risk and that's the uncertainty of the market. You can never be sure. And that's why we are in a phase where psychology is at its lowest. We saw it with the Fear and Greed Index. We see it on social media. People are panicking because they don't know what to do. People don't know if they should enter a position now, or if, on the contrary, they should exit because we are entering a more significant bear market. I've always said, if you have to panic, panic as early as possible. Panicking early was in this phase. Okay. I estimate that it's starting to be too late. Selling BTC after a 30% drop is too late. Panicking was here, at the latest, at $100,000, $102,000, $103,000, above $100,000 at a stretch. Okay? Now, as I said, it's too late. We are now in phases where we will look to reposition ourselves. I'm not saying go all-in now, but yes, it will be interesting to use the cash that has been set aside, as I've told you, you've been learning this lately, well, now when everyone starts to panic, when everyone wanted BTC, when everyone was here, we were calmly taking our profits. And I've always told you, it's not here that I'll be looking for longs, it's not here either that I'll be looking for longs. However, when everyone is afraid, when everyone no longer wants BTC, when everyone is starting to panic, that's when we can slightly reposition ourselves. Honestly, I would like it to push a bit more and execute my first orders in "fishing net" mode around -15%, $73,000. It's both close because -15% we did it very quickly in a few weeks, but it's also far because there's a big block here that can hold. So I would like to have my orders executed here, my first orders, and I wouldn't be against starting to enter if we start to see a small reversal structure here. But for now, we have nothing. We have nothing at all for now. When I look here, moving averages pointing downwards, it's pushing well. We are losing the tunnel, the weekly pivot point. We have a 3-minute chart that will be oriented downwards again, which will likely act as resistance, as it did when we had a good downward trend. So, for now, I see nothing that shows us that BTC is putting in a bottom. So, as I said, in the short term, we are looking for shorts. In the long term, we wait, we place our orders and wait to be executed. We are coming back to test first interesting levels. Now, the faster it goes, the better. If BTC can quickly get to $50,000, I'll be executed. It's better than a long downward trend that lasts a year. Now, that's very unlikely. It would be quite serious from a structural point of view to have a BTC that drops in a straight line like that. It means we take more than a year, a year and a half to go from $50,000 to $120,000, and in 5-6 weeks it's erased. No. Well, that's the shitcoin chart, and that automatically raises questions about BTC's structure if we do something like this. Now, what I know is that I know nothing, and I will especially adapt to what I see currently. I have my levels ready, I have my "fishing net" orders ready as well. Regarding Ether, well, I told you, the $3,000 level was a level that interested me if and only if I had a bullish reaction. Well, I didn't have a bullish reaction, so I'm not positioning myself. Okay, I'm simply respecting what I said, what I announce in videos every day. It's not for show, it's not for nothing, it's simply because I share a plan with you, I share an analysis, and I respect it myself. Okay, $3,000 is an interesting level that acts as support or resistance depending on whether we are above or below it. Now, we are losing this level. Well, the next level is here, $2,200. And that's where it will become interesting for Ether. Why not take longs if we simply have a bottom forming, and we will have done it very quickly though. Well, we will have done it very quickly, but as quickly as when we went from one extreme to another. And Ether, it was very fast to go from $2,000 to $4,000. We see it clearly, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 weeks. In 5 weeks, we did it. Well, now we might take 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 weeks to reach the lower extreme. In the end, when we think about it, we went up very quickly on Ether. And I remember, when I was selling at $3,007 here, many told me, "Yes, it will go higher." And when it went higher, "Yeah, you see, it went higher." Did those people take profits and aren't they underwater now? I don't know. But in any case, I secured here, I secured at $4,003, $4,002. I still have Ether. Yes, it's a fact, Ether was accumulated in this zone and in this zone because I decided not to sell everything. That's how it is, I never sell everything. And but automatically, I could, with the cash I recovered here and here, reposition myself on this lower extreme. Now, in the short term, well, we remain in this bearish flow, in this downward trend with lower lows and lower highs. Same, 1-hour tunnel below the 15-minute. 15-minute oriented downwards. 4-hour also oriented downwards. If I put pivot points, we are currently on a weekly pivot point. To see if we close below it, but for now, we remain in a downward trend. So, well, I remain bearish on Ether as well. Now, regarding altcoins, I will analyze Hyperliquid because it was requested. Hyperliquid is crazy. That's where you see it. I am very happy with the choice I made on Hyperliquid because I have Hyperliquid for a good part of my exposure, not as much as BTC or Ether, but it's the third crypto in my portfolio. Okay? And it's crazy, the demand there is for Hyperliquid. Either we say there is a strong demand to absorb the current sales, or we assume that there are very few sales. But we see that Hyperliquid is outperforming all altcoins. If I do crypto 2. Hype, I don't know. No, I won't be able to do it like that. We'll do hype USDT divided by BTC USDT. Look at that, isn't that beautiful? In an uptrend, it outperforms BTC. When I say in an uptrend, it's when BTC is in an uptrend, well, Hype outperforms it, and when BTC is in a downtrend, Hype outperforms it too. That's it. I entered Hype, it's a very good project. There's a very good community behind it. The project launch was magnificent. The airdrop was very well executed. There's real added value to the ecosystem, and especially a community that believes in the project. And when there's an airdrop that is well launched with a fair distribution, a logical distribution of tokens, not the team getting rich, not private investors, the community benefited greatly from it, and it's the biggest airdrop in history, for your information. Well, that leads to this, a project that is interesting, that people are talking about, a community that is interested in it, and demand that is present for the project. Now, of course, yes, positioning yourself is complicated because we don't have any retracements. Well, if BTC continues to push, I think Hype will break down at some point, but we see that it's holding up very well. I'm interested in buying Hype again at $25. $25, $25 in that zone. Of course, if we go lower, $21 will also interest me, but for now, I estimate that we are much too high, and Hype can break down, of course, if BTC pushes, but we see that there is very good demand for Hyperliquid, and we are still in this consolidation phase. I was asked for an analysis of Nvidia because, yes, Nvidia's results came out yesterday, figures well above expectations. That's why the crypto market pumped last night. Now, an analysis of Nvidia. Well, it will be quite quick. If I were looking to position myself, we are not in a good zone, we are much too high. For this type of stock, we wait for retracements. No need to wait for a -80% like BTC, but a -20% to -30%. That already becomes interesting to position yourself. You see that we have this kind of retracement, it's interesting, but here we are much too high. You put in moving averages, you look for confluences on levels. Elliott wave tunnel, 3-day tunnel. Generally, these are good reference points. Okay? You see that when we pull back to the Elliott wave tunnel or the 3-day tunnel, we often have a good reaction. We can also look for support levels. Yes, here we have a good confluence of resistance levels that will then act as support. 3-day, 3-day. Well, here we are in a very good zone. You can also put in pivot points. Well, we are looking at the long term, so we will look for at least monthly pivot points, or even, there you have a reference point, $110. Take the highest point, we are at a -26% drop. So, this could be a good zone to position yourself. Here, the free pivot point is quite high. Personally, if I were to position myself on Nvidia, I would wait for a good retracement of -25% to -30%. To come back and test, for example, previous ATHs, perhaps in confluence with the 3-day tunnel if it continues to increase. And then, on the other hand, for someone who is already positioned, we are in a very good zone here to take profits. If I look a bit closer in the short term, as long as we hold the 4-hour tunnel, it's rather good. However, if we start to lose the 4-hour tunnel, to enter a phase where we make lower lows and lower highs, yes, that would not be very good for the future, and we would have a good chance of entering a downward trend, which is possible. When I look at the US market, it's not very pretty, it's not very good. We saw it yesterday, the validation of this top structure, this M top that was validated. So, we confirmed this M top. Now, we see that we have retested the neckline. We had a good push here, and well, we have a move that is rather... the opening of the US market. Well, it pushed a bit at the opening, slightly. No, not at the opening. It pushed at 3 PM. Yes, at the opening, sorry, at 3:30 PM it pushed slightly. Oops! And we see after 4:45 PM, well, we swallowed everything and retested the neckline, and we are potentially entering a downward trend. That's why I'm also wary about cryptos, because we have the S&P 500 and Nasdaq structuring top patterns, which is not at all good. And the last crypto that was asked to be analyzed, I have Aster. Aster is here. Well, Aster, I'm not a fan in the sense that it has performed mainly because of Elon Musk's tweets, there was hype, certainly, but the project might be interesting, but not more than that. Now, we tried to structure a bottom. However, the chart is much too young. I'm not comfortable. I'm focusing on Hyperliquid. I'm not saying Aster is the worst project, it's a project that is launching quite... it's complicated to launch in September-October in the sense that we knew BTC could put in a top at that time. So it's not launching at the best moment. We don't have a bottom formed, we don't have a structure. That's what I like in this kind of crypto. To have a reversal structure like this forming, generally, it's a good thing, which we don't have currently. So it's complicated to enter on cryptos with so little chart history in a market that is currently complicated, where we are potentially entering a bear market. So I won't do anything on this. I won't do anything. If I have Aster, well, it depends on where I entered the position. If you have convictions about Aster, there's no problem. But I don't have enough history to determine interesting zones to position myself. So I will wait on this. So, I've said what I wanted to say. Don't hesitate to join the Discord for those who have questions, who are panicking a bit right now. If, well, you don't really know what to do, don't hesitate to contact me. For those who want to go further, don't hesitate to join the "Become a Trader" program to train yourself and know what to do in these market conditions. And I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.