Transcription
Hello everybody. Welcome to NFA Live on Thursday, as ever. So, I'm joined, of course, by my friends here, Guy from Coin Bureau. Guy, how you doing?
I'm well, thanks Rob. How are you?
Pretty good. And then Ben, back again here in NFA Live. How's things going, Ben?
Pretty good. Thanks for having me.
Yeah, you're welcome. I'm trying to get you before, you know, you come out to uh Bitcoin Amsterdam and uh are laid out there as one of their premier speakers. Now, if you haven't got your tickets right now for Bitcoin Amsterdam, if you want to go, there's a link in the description. Ben will be talking over there, and maybe you can fend him into maybe playing a game of chess against you if you're so inclined to.
So, first of all, before we get into it, can, can we just agree that uh this was a fantastic, great promo done by Grock? And, and pretty much how the entire crypto market really is feeling like the the October, I don't know what the heck happened to it, but it's Downtober, it seems like, and the ship is seems like it's going down. But yet, we're here just, just spewing the opium. However, I think there are some things in the background. But I gotta tell you, I thought this was uh fantastic that we all were able to meet up in Dubai, record this six-second dancing video, and then off we went.
So, guys, to all, all seriousness aside, uh, the last 30 days have been junk, and October is not living up to its name by far. And there's some things that are going on in the background when we take a look at the monthly returns. And yes, we're using this, this website, Cycle under the Cryptoverse. You can check it out. But October, the last time it was red was 2018, and that, of course, was one year past the blow-off top. And we hit negative -3.9%. So far this month in October, we're at negative 4%, almost there. And if that's the truth, now, there's different things, of course, obviously, because it wasn't a post-halving year. This was in 2018. This is our blow-off top. But I mean, the last time we had a negative October, we also saw November negative 37% and almost negative 8% for December. So, we'll see if it plays out like that.
And then not only that, if we take a look at the Bitcoin market cycle bottom and the ROI after the halving, we can see that so far right now, this cycle, cycle five, has extended past all of them as far as days go, and as well as uh, halving after the halving. And we're looking at 551 days compared to 546, 525, and 371. So, let me just ask you guys this point blank: What happened to October? Do you expect Q4 to be better, or is this just the sign of things to come? And then Guy, I'd like to start with you on this one, and we'll pivot off to Ben, and he can use his own website.
All right. Um, yeah, what happened, what happened to October? Um, I guess, well, I mean, I think this, I think this sort of big liquidation cascade that we saw almost a couple of weeks ago now, I think that was probably the straw that broke the camel's back. But I think, you know, I, I think that kind of underlines the fact that the, the market, the crypto market, I should say, was built on some pretty shaky foundations there. You know, that was an awful lot of leverage that had built up in the system. It's probably ultimately a good thing that that has now been flushed. Um, but we know it'll start building up again because that's what it does. So, you know, this will probably, something like this will happen again. Um, but yeah, I think that was, and that was the big sort of, that was the thing that really broke the October narrative. And of course, that's underlined by the fact that, you know, that was set off, the initial selling was kind of triggered by, um, by the macro environment that we're in now. And that is, you know, we're in Trump world now. Um, where, you know, where he does, where he does business in a very different way. And, you know, there's a case to be made that the sort of tariffs thing has kind of worked for him. There's a case to be made that it hasn't worked. But whatever side of the fence you're on, um, it's certainly, it's certainly changed the macro environment that crypto now operates in. Crypto is, is becoming more intertwined with kind of regular finance. It's no longer a diverse, discrete asset class. You know, it is becoming, it is becoming more and more just another asset class. So, it is a lot more vulnerable to these kind of external shocks. And, you know, we're living in an age of increasing, increasing uncertainty. And Trump is, Trump is, you know, kind of in large part, uh, the person to thank for that. But he's not alone. Like, I think the world is kind of, is kind of heading in that direction anyway. So, crypto was a lot more vulnerable to, um, you know, to these kind of external shocks. So, I think that's basically what did for October.
Got it. You know what? It's a good point. And hopefully, these uh external shocks which which push us to the downside, they can actually take those shocks that are positive and push us to the upside. But it seems like it only works in the downward position. However, fundamentally, things have not changed. It is the same thing with crypto. There's no double spend. Vladimir Putin didn't come out and say, "I created Bitcoin." And no, uh, the CIA didn't create it either, that I know of. So, as we move forward, hopefully, things get positive. Ben, what's your thoughts on this one? What happened to uh, October? I know that Bitcoin dominance passed 60%. So, hey, we got that going for us.
Yeah, I saw, I saw the poll you put out, so I'm not going to say it.
Yeah. No, I mean, it's, it's interesting because if you measure from the low, if you measure from the halving, kind of looks like the cycle's already spent. If you measure from the peak and you compare it to 2017, there still is a chance we get another push into, um, December. I'm kind of of the opinion that whatever is going to happen for Bitcoin will happen this year. And I, I, you know, I, I feel somewhat deterministic about next year kind of being a bare market for, for the crypto asset class in general. Um, and hopefully that starts from higher Bitcoin prices, right? Hopefully. But I do think that, and I've always said, I think the top's in Q4. And I think the, the low for next year will just be one year after the top. So, if the top's already in, that means the low will be next October. If we can get one more rally before the cycle's over, maybe into December, then it would, in my, in my opinion, it would mean the next low would be just December of 2026. And, you know, there have been a lot of parallels between this cycle and the, you know, the 2016, 2017 cycle, uh, structurally, just kind of a, a lot, a lot lower volatility. And in fact, there's a chart that I, maybe I can show really quick because it, it really goes to show, um, just how, how similar they are in terms of like the volatility. And so, if you look at days, I guess I need to sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh share my screen, huh?
Yeah, it might help.
I mean, you can verbally say, I can, we can all mentally see it.
Paint us, paint us a picture.
Yeah. Um,
if you can see that.
So, this is like the number of days since Bitcoin's had a 50% drop, and we're currently on day 1179. And the only other cycle that looks remotely similar to this one is the 2017 cycle, right? And in that case, Bitcoin had a 50% drop from the high on day 1110, right? So that's basically another 30 days from now or so. Um, again, it doesn't have to be the exact same, but you can kind of see how, how the cycles kind of ebb and flow. Like, you get, you get one cycle with a lot of volatility to the downside, whether you get like deeper corrections like in 2013, 2014, or 2012 and 2013. Then you get one cycle with very low volatility like 2016, 2017, and then the 2019, 2020, 2021 cycle, there was a ton of volatility. We had these major crashes to the downside. We had the major drop in 2019 with the pandemic, and we also had the major drop in May of 2021 where Bitcoin dropped like, you know, more than 50%, and then we still went on to put in an all-new all-time high. But this cycle looks a lot more like the 2016, 2017 cycle, right? In terms of just very low volatility. There was also back then, there was people talking about recessions non-stop as well, and and and that kind of being the, the thing that people were the most scared about. And then eventually, we didn't have a recession, and, you know, Bitcoin just kind of kept slowly working its way up, and then finally, we had sort of a final rally from like mid-November until mid-December. So, like, I, I feel like I got to go with, if it's not broke, don't fix it. I think the tops in Q4. I think you could have one more rally, but if you don't have another rally by, let's call it mid-December, then we're just not going to get one, more than likely. Um, I will say this, as I've said before, I'm not going to say the word, Rob.
But you are, you are messing up everybody's betting, Ben.
But I know, I know.
Putting your thumb on the scale. That's fine. But I, but I will say that the only way we continue from here is if, is if Bitcoin shows strength first, right? Like, like altcoins are not going to be the ones to show strength first. So, you're, you, I think you're generally better off with Bitcoin, um, in, in terms of your crypto allocations for the next few weeks. I think you're much better off with Bitcoin because I think that metric that Rob always talks about is about to go up a ton. Um, like, it's, it's approaching 60%. But I think you're going to see it skyrocket, you know, back up 63, 64. And, and look, I mean, it doesn't have to happen, but in some cases, I, I could see it going to a new, um, uh, that metric going to a new cycle high because, I mean, we just saw all Bitcoin pairs go to new cycle lows, you know, just a few weeks ago. Um, and, and so in the 2017 cycle, we saw them find, there was major pivot levels for all Bitcoin pairs in early November and then again in early December. Um, and so you might think, oh, well, early November, that's only like a week and a half away. Yeah, it is. But the problem is that there's a really high probability that that, uh, that metric that shall not be named could go up a lot between now and then.
Why Ben, why are you manipulating the markets? Just say Bitcoin discombobulants. I, I don't see the problem. So, hey, real quick, could you, could you throw up that that same chart that you just showed us with the volatility and the, the minimization of it? That was a, it was a good one because there's something that, um, a lot of people have talked about as far as like with ETFs and gold, the, the comparison of ETF with of gold in 2004, the first US ETF, and the first Bitcoin ETF, January 2024. And we can see that if I'm looking at this right, I got to squint. 2023. Yeah. So, we started in 2024 with that, with that ETF. And people were saying back then that this could lead to less volatility, and maybe things are playing out. And if it is the same thing, because if we take a look at, of course, the, the gold ETF, things were up and to the right. Now, there were little pullbacks here and there, but maybe there's something to be said for that. And maybe as time goes on, you know, maybe we'll have an elongated cycle. But again, like you say, it's not broke, don't fix it. We'll see what happens in November. The second week isn't isn't popping. Then start to start to worry about it. Anyhow, so we have that piece. Let's move forward because there was another, another thing. I mean, speaking of four or five-year cycles, there was, Ben, I watched your video on on the on the cycles, and it was pretty good. And you talked about how everything, there's a lot of four-year cycles out there. And then I saw the same thing being repeated over on Wolf of Wolf of All Streets. Yeah. Melker and you were talking about the same thing. Elaborate real quick on that as far as like with these four-year cycles as it compares to the traditional markets, S&P 500, also for presidential elections. And the thing that that really got me is because there's an overlay here. This is from Fidelity, historical presidential uh cycle average versus the S&P. And they're taking a look at just not this, this cycle, but previous cycles. And they, they condense this over, gosh, for over 20, 30 years. So, we have something like this, and also US stock market returns. And even though they're not, they're not red on every four years like we see in, in the four-year cycle, there is a reduction in, uh, in valuation from the fourth year or the third year to the fourth year. Anyhow, just to kind of elaborate on that real quick.
Yeah, I mean, I, I just, I don't think that, I'm not saying it has no effect, but I don't think that the halving is the main reason for the four-year cycle. And the reason for that is because people that were trading markets, you know, the, the stock market, whatever, in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, they were also very familiar with the four-year cycle. And basically, what it is, it doesn't tell you when the high is going to be. It tells you when the low is going to be. And the low is approximately every four years. So, you have, you know, if you just kind of work your way backwards, you had a major low in 1982, which was a midterm year, right? A midterm year, just like with Bitcoin, it tends to be kind of the near the end of the midterm year. So, you have 1982, you have, um, uh, let's go, let's just go back. So, then you have 1978, 1974, 1970, 1966, uh, 1962, 1958. So, you can see that. And, and, and, and it's not exactly right. Like, in this cycle over here, it happened almost in 1954, but it might have actually been the very end of 1953. But you can see how approximately every four years, you get these major lows. Now, that goes on for years and years and years, right? It gets, it goes on and on and on, and it goes on so much that people think it'll never break, right? And so, during this time, you know, during, you know, basically from like 1949, from the end of World War II, basically until 1982, you would have been best served, assuming this time was not different, right? And just assuming that every major low would be approximately four years apart. Now, I have to imagine that there's always someone through here shouting that this time is different, right? Every single cycle, and saying why it'll be different this time. But again, we went, you know, like 30 years with it not being different and it just being more or less the same thing over and over and over again. But then eventually, it broke, right? Because, you know, you had a low near the end of 1982, and then you didn't really have a major low near the end of 1986, right? Like, you just had a consolidation phase, and then you went up, but then you still ended up putting a slightly lower low in 1987. So, that ended up being a little longer than, than four years. So, the argument that I'm trying to make, right, is that there's a decent chance that we are just going to be in another four-year cycle, right? But we also have to acknowledge that at some point in Bitcoin's future, it will likely deviate from the four-year cycle, just like we've seen markets deviate from the four-year cycle in the past. Um, it's just a matter of like, when does that happen? Does that happen this time, or does it not? I think if it, if it does, if we deviate this time, then 2026 could just look like sideways price action, right? Like, where you're, you're not going to, you know, good luck convincing everyone else that it's going to be different, right? So, those guys are probably going to sell, and the price is probably going to stay flat. And if, by the end of 2026, Bitcoin hasn't dropped, then maybe then we get that big move up into 2027. But I think, I think for me, it makes the most sense to assume, if it's not broke, don't fix it. And just kind of assume that this time will not be different, just like all those four-year cycles in the past were not different. And once every three decades, you know, things might change. Uh, but again, you, you're always better off assuming it wasn't going to change. Like, think about how many times people would have been wrecked by then, back then, assuming that it was different. And the, the guy that only assumed it was, the guy that always assumed it was the same would have just gotten wrecked, you know, once. And that would have been not until 1986. And even in that case, he would have sold, and then the price just stayed flat for a year. You know, it's not like he truly got wrecked. He just basically sold, and price eventually, price just went sideways for the entire midterm year. And so, a lot of those people that probably sold near the post-election year bought back in, and then that led to that, you know, yeah, that next rally in 1987, and then we still ended up getting the big crash. It just happened a little bit, a little bit later. So, I think you could argue that the cycles more so evolve around the presidential cycles. And it makes sense because when a president gets elected, um, he wants the markets to do well. If you're going to have a reset year, if the, you know, in the presidential cycle, if you're going to have a reset year, the best year to do it is the midterm year. And the reason for that is because you're far enough away from the presidential election that people aren't going to remember because everyone suffers from short-term memory loss, right? People aren't going to remember. And, and so you have the ability to, to let the markets drop in the midterm year and then run them back up in the pre-election year and the election year. And, and if, as long as the markets have been going up for the last 12 to 24 months, people are generally in a good mood. What you don't want to happen is a crash in the election year. And that's actually what happened back in 2020, right? But again, we had a, we had a pandemic, and, you know, good luck stopping that. I mean, you, no matter who was in office, the pandemic hitting would have, you know, would have had that, I, I think that same effect. But that's what you don't want to have because when you have drops in election years, when you have recessions in election years, that's usually, that usually causes the political party in office to lose power, and then the other guys get elected, right? So, the best, best year to, to let the markets drop is the midterm year because that, I mean, just gives you a lot more ability, ease to kind of run things back up before the election.
Yeah, well said. Markets don't like uncertainty. That's really what it comes down to. So, Guy, same type of thing. Same question for you. And I'm going to reference that there's a couple of good, I mean, you guys put out great videos all the time. I watch them. But this one, uh, where Nick was talking about the Q4 crypto surge, and I think you guys also did one about the cycles. Then this one also, just to go back to your, your old point, the crypto crash, uh, who's behind it? That was a really, uh, a really eye-opening type of one. So, everybody, if you could, there's a link in the description for the channel. Check out those two videos. But just real quick, Guy, what do you think about those as far as what we just talked about as far as the cycles and where things are going?
The more things change, the more they stay the same. So,
like, you know, I can't, I don't really have much more to add than that, I'm afraid. Like, you know, it's like, is the four-year cycle over? Is it not? I don't know. We'll see. But,
you know what? I appreciate those answers. Last week, we were talking about Bitcoin dominance, and Ben was rattling off all the great information. And then you said, Rob, you got anything for him? I'm like, nope, nothing. Next question. So, let's get to it. How about this then? I'm going to ask you about gold. So, gold beat Bitcoin this year in ROI. Sorry, it just did. I want to say hats off to the gold bugs out there. You guys got, you know, you guys got kicked when you were down, and you just stood the course. Congratulations. You're, you're making those fantastic gains. Now, over the last couple of days, things are down a little bit, but I mean, that's a, that's in our world, that's like a, what? That's a Tuesday. Who cares? So, gold beat Bitcoin. As the gold bug believes in the same things. The gold bugs believe in the same things we do, right? We want to get out of the system. We want to exit the matrix. We want to not have so much government. We want to have, you know, something that actually backs and is real, because we know that that fiat's going to go to zero. The question I have is, gold just shed roughly two and a half or three trillion dollars in the last 36 hours, maybe 48 hours. That is the, that is at or more than the entire market cap of Bitcoin. What are we doing wrong to not get the Bitcoin people to hear our message? And what should we be sharing with them? Guy, I'm going to start with you because you and your channel are great educators.
Thanks, Rob. Um, yeah, it's, I mean, I, I think one of the, I think one of the first things to, the first distinctions to draw is that, you know, you point out gold and gold and Bitcoin have really quite a lot in common, you know, in terms of being hard assets, you know, finite supply, very difficult to debase, etc. Um, but, you know, I, I think probably there should be more kind of overlap between the gold bugs and, and, and the Bitcoiners. And do you know what? There probably is. But the nature of the internet and the nature of social media likes to pit one set of people against another. And, you know, you know, like to put the Peter Shifts of this world into bat for gold, and to put, you know, various of us crypto bros into into bat for Bitcoin, and and see who comes out on top, and, you know, make it kind of some kind of struggle. Whereas in actual fact, most people, you know, who own a bit of gold, you know, probably quite a few of them are sort of interested in Bitcoin. Um, and vice versa, you know, there'll be a lot of Bitcoiners or a lot of Bitcoin holders who hold gold as well. So, you know, I don't necessarily think it's, it's as adversarial as the internet likes to make it out. Um, however, that said, you know, that, that there are, there are differences. And I think kind of where it starts is the fact that I think, you know, a lot of people are still kind of,
a lot of people don't really know what Bitcoin is. You know, they, they regard it as kind of magic internet money.
Um, true.
They don't really, I wonder how many of them really appreciate the qualities of gold. Do you know what I mean? It's like, do people stop and think, yeah, I'm, I, you know, I want to have gold because it's going to protect me from inflation and, you know, it's finite. It can't, you know, it can't just be printed out of the blue by by governments, etc. Or do they just, you know, do they see it at a more kind of base level? It's just like, this is, this is something shiny and valuable. I want to have, I, you know, I want to have it because I think its price will go up in the future. Um, and I think a lot of people are probably still uncomfortable with the fact that Bitcoin is a digital asset. You can't hold it in your hands. You can't feel the weight of it. You can't, you can't put it under the light and watch it get all shiny. Do you know what I mean? It, it's, it's a, it's a fundamentally different thing. And that's why I think, you know, Bitcoin's future will probably be decided by people in the long run who are more comfortable with holding assets digitally. But one of the things that's been really fascinating over the last week, and I think we talked about it on last, on last week's stream, you know, we shared the, shared the picture of it, of people queuing outside shops in various places
to buy gold.
>> Um, so one thing I'd say to them is, hey, you don't actually need need to stand in a queue, uh, to buy Bitcoin. Um, you know, there's none, there's none of that. You just have to, you just have to, um, grapple with using a crypto exchange. Um, but I, you know, I think the fact that people were queuing up to hold it, you know, that was, that, you know, definitely seemed to be a top signal. And, and in, uh, in respect of the kind of draw down we've seen in gold, perhaps it was. But I think we shouldn't underestimate people's desire to have, you know, to have a physical object, to have something valuable that they can hold and put under the mattress or in the bank vault or in the safe or whatever. Um, and an interesting thing was, you know, we're just, I think Diwali, uh, was over the last couple of days, the Hindu festival of lights. And I saw a news article here in the UAE saying that jeweler shops in the UAE had sold a record amount of gold this Diwali. And, and the more I thought about that, the more I thought like, yeah, you know, gold has these cultural ties. You know, it's, what is it, 5,000 years, um, they reckon that humans have sort of been using gold as a sort of for its monetary properties or for its store of value properties or whatever, right? And I thought, yeah, that's going to take a long time to, you know, you can't just, you can't replace that, um, in a few years with some fancy digital asset, however great the qualities of Bitcoin are. Um, 5,000 years of history. Gold is, gold has cultural associations. Gold, I think, speaks to, speaks to people in a very primal way. Um, and that, I think, is one of the reasons why, you know, it is, it is currently way, way, way above Bitcoin in terms of market cap. And it's just about, you know, it's just about saying to people, okay, that's great. You hold some of your wealth in gold. That's a very good idea. Who do you hold it with? You know, is that custodied in a bank somewhere? Because, uh, you know, if you could talk to the president of Venezuela, um, whose gold is, uh, currently still stuck in a, in London vaults, I think they would have, you know, something to say about that. Um, so, you know, where do you keep it? Do you keep it under the mattress? Or, um, and, and then how do you, how do you move it across borders? Try moving $1 million of gold across a border. It's, it's not easy. I don't say that from experience, by the way, but just, just in case anyone was wondering. Um, but yeah, I think it's, it's, it's going to take a long time to break that kind of, or, or to, I don't think you want to break it, but to successfully question that deep, deep cultural association that people, that, that people have with gold.
Brilliant. That's a good one. I'm going to steal that one. I'm telling you right now, what you talked about as far as like as a primal, there's something about gold and holding a physical block of gold, even a, even a small bullion to have something like that in your hand, you can touch it, you can see it, you can feel it, and you can trade it. Unfortunately, like you said, good luck moving that around the world. Good luck moving that from city to city if you're doing it as a, as a, uh, method of, of payment. So, anyhow, gold has its place. I still think it does. It's just that there's a lot of shortcomings. And that's where, that's why Bitcoin was created. Ben, that was, same question for you. What are we doing wrong here? And does it really, and in, in the grand scheme of things, does it really matter? They'll just figure out at some point, or are we saying the wrong things?
I mean, I think they just, I mean, ultimately, they're just, they trade as fundamentally different assets, right? Like Bitcoin trades more like a risk asset, which I think is a good thing. I saw kind of like a funny video of, um, someone, it was, I think they like got Cristiano Ronaldo, like one of his prior, did you not see what I'm talking about where his, one of his prior,
things where he like got up and was like celebrating, um, some of his accomplishments and like just like going and they're like, and the caption is like, Peter Schiff celebrating a 2x move over the last like 20 years or something.
Yeah, that's a good one.
No, I mean, like, look, I, I own gold. Um, I've, you know, I've, I've had it, I've owned gold for a while. Um, I, I did talk about how we would likely have a correction in gold whenever silver made a new all-time high. So, I think that's kind of where we are right now. Um, I think that the hard part with convincing gold bugs to be Bitcoiners, it's like convincing Bitcoiners to be altcoiners, right? Like, you're not, people are set in their ways and their minds are made up, right? Like, you're not, I don't think I have any ability to, you know, to, to change someone's mind. Like, imagine in 20, 30 years, or some, some new thing that comes out and people are trying to convince Bitcoiners to go to that new thing. Like, yeah, good luck, because, you know, we're all going to just be a product of our own, own experience. I also think too, that it's, it's better that the Bitcoin trades differently than gold. Um, because, you know, markets are, are risk on far, often far more often than the risk off.
So, I mean, I, as far as I'm concerned, those, I mean, yeah, I don't know. I, I, I, I do think though, that the people with, that that are in gold in general, and the reason why it makes such a big deal, like a 2x move in gold is such a big deal, is because very, very wealthy people put a lot of their money in gold, right? Um, so it's like the wealth effect, right? A 2x move might not sound like a lot, right? If you're buying altcoins and you're putting a few hundred in altcoins and they go up 2x, like, okay, you know, congrats. It's like, you've paid for for your food for next week, you know, but for someone in gold, like, you know, people that are very, very wealthy, a 2x move is a huge amount of wealth accumulated for them. Uh, and, and so, you know, those people are more willing to put, to put like tons of money into assets like gold because they are so convinced that over a long enough period of time, the price goes up and to the right. Bitcoin just hasn't been around long enough, I think, for a lot of people to agree with that, right? Or, or accept that as well. And so, I think ultimately, the way you convince people is just Bitcoin just keeps doing its thing, and then eventually people will will kind of recognize it, right? But it takes, it takes many, many years of people being proven wrong. And even this cycle, how many people have you seen that kind of like, um, dunked on Bitcoin throughout the cycle, but then eventually they, they pivoted and they, they changed their mind. And I've seen that, I've seen that happen with a lot of people. So, I think a lot of, I think a lot of the ways you convince people is, you know, Bitcoin just keeps doing its thing, and eventually people come to the table, right? Eventually the people that keep buying altcoins too, they see that they're just bleeding to Bitcoin, and they make the same decision. So, I think you just need time is, is kind of how you, how you convince people. I don't even, I, I mean, at this point, I don't try to convince my friends or family to go buy crypto, you know, because it's never a winning, it's never a winning thing because you won't convince them to buy it at low prices. They'll only listen to you at high prices. And when they buy it at high prices, they'll blame you when it crashes. So, there's no really great reason, I think, to, to try to convince people, at least personal people. It's, it's great if you want to alienate them for Thanksgiving. That's pretty much the only good thing.
So, anyhow,
there we are. We found crypto's use case. Alienating your alienating your loved ones so you can have a more, a more low-key Thanksgiving.
The ones you don't like, there's a big difference. All right. So, any everybody, so that would conclude just, just the, uh, the, uh, the Q&A part. Oh, there was one question. It's just a throwaway question. If you had, if you had one sponsor for your channel, who would it be? And this could be an individual, or this could be a corporation. It could be an institution. If you just have, if you could just get one perfect partner for your channel to always talk about and be like, "This is my partner. These are the ones that that prop up in the cryptoverse. I'm very happy." Or Coin Bureau. So, who wants to take this one?
I feel like for me, like, I, I feel like I, I mean, I've never done that before, but I, I feel like I, it have to be something that I, it have to be like a company that makes a product that I already use, um, that I find valuable, right? Like, is that, is that what you're essentially asking? Like, if, if you had a sponsor, who would it be?
Right? Like, let's say it's like, I don't know who the world-famous chessboard makers are. They're like, "Mr. Colin, we need to to advertise on your on your channel. Have you ever used our chess boards?" "Yes." "So, the best of all time."
Yeah. So, I feel like it'd have to be something I'm passionate about, right? Like, or, or I use a lot. Like, obviously, I really like chess. Um, I also really like, uh, other sports. I like soccer. I like tennis. I like disc golf. I mean, I, I also really like, I like watching a lot of sports. Basketball, the NBA, a lot. Um, also like Apple. Like, I mean, Apple, good to sponsor you, but like, I mean, I use Apple products, right? Like, I have an iPhone, I have a, you know, a MacBook Pro, I have a Mac Studio. Like, I mean, I just like all the stuff I use are Apple products because I think they're, you know, I used to use, uh,
um,
you know, PCs. Yeah, I, I used to go with, uh, with other things, and I've even gone with, um,
you know, I've used Ubuntu before, like Linux operating
systems, but, um, at the end of the day, like, I, I, I felt like because I got familiar with Linux back in grad school, it made it made transitioning over to Apple products just so easy because you can, you can access like all the same stuff, or a lot of the same stuff. So, yeah. I mean, something like that. I, I don't, you know, I don't, I don't drink coffee or tea at all. Um, I, I hate the taste. I also, I know this is sacrilegious, but I, I also hate the taste of beer.
Yeah.
Yeah. I know.
Well, I do like, I don't know. Like, so, so maybe like a beverage that I like. I don't know. Like, I, I, I'm not, I would never have, you know, some of these like scammy crypto things. I mean, I get reached out to by like 10 times a week, someone wanting me to promote some some random crap that they've created, and then I usually ignore them, and then like a week later, I go back and look, and the message, the message is gone because their account was deleted for violating terms of service and stuff. So, yeah, it's got to be, it's got to be something that I, I already use and I, I find value in.
It makes sense. Tim Cook, if you're listening, DMs are open for B.
No, except for one exception. If, if Satoshi wanted to sponsor me, I would accept that.
Okay. Yeah. If, if Satoshi himself or herself or themselves. Guy, same question. What's like the ultimate for you?
Uh, maybe the World Gold Council.
Oh, there we go. I'll take that. World Gold Council. Maybe BlackRock. They've captured everything else. So, you know, maybe. Yeah. Um, no. Um, I don't know. I don't know. I mean, we have, we have brand partners. We've got brand partnerships with, uh, with BitGet and Tangent at the moment. They're both great. Um, but I was, you know, I was sort of thinking about this whilst, whilst Ben was talking. Maybe we could, uh, maybe we could, um, onboard into the cryptoverse. Uh, you know, the, the premier data platform in all of crypto.
Um,
look at this. Deals being made. Deals being made. This is awesome. Here we go.
Yeah. Yeah. Welcome to, welcome to, welcome to Deals Live. Um, but yeah, in terms of other sort of, in, in terms of other products I use, I don't, I don't know. Um, uh, maybe. Yeah, maybe I just, maybe it would just have to be a brewery then, seeing as Ben's not gonna, Ben's not gonna bite on that. I don't mind the taste, taste of beer.
You know what you should do? You should launch your own brewery and then
Yes. And then sponsor. Yeah, that's how you do it, Guy.
Brew Bureau.
So, Coin Bureau. Oh, Coin, Coin Bureau. Yes.
No, no, no, no. What did you say, Rob?
Brew Bureau.
Yeah.
Brew Bureau.
Brew Bureau. The BB. Everybody likes
Our first Our first beer could be called what? Uh, no.
Would you like the dominance? It's alcohol level is 9%. Yeah, exactly. It's 9% bright orange and it'll knock you, it'll knock you off. Knock you down.
If someone, if someone orders some like an altcoin, you just bring them a Shirley Temple or something.
And then you say, "Haha, rug pull." And then he's like, "There's no alcohol in that."
Excellent. All right. So, I learned some things about you guys today. That is fascinating stuff. Uh, everybody, if you're not following Guy and Ben, which I doubt that very much, there's a link in the description. Now, let's roll into Oh, first of all, I'm gonna give away a Tangent wallet. I want to say that I know that the markets haven't been stellar, and everybody's kind of feeling down. So, I said, I'll do like, like a quick giveaway. And the three people before we get into the Q&A that said, "I'll take one," J, Steve, Spark, and Haime. The first one of you three that puts your X handle in the comments wins the Tangent wallet, and I'll send it myself. So, anyhow, Jamie, Spark, J Steve, first one to put their X handle, I'll reach out to you on, uh, Twitter. Or if you want to give me your, you know, your address and your phone number and your Coinbase password, that's fine. We'll take it here, too. Just kidding. Don't do that. So, that's it for today, everybody. Let's get into some quick Q&A. We got to get out of here. It's, uh, it's getting late. So, I already started some, uh, uh, okay, Peter asks, "Will Bitcoin recover to 0.05?"
Ben, this is, this is you.
This is not me, Guy. Come on.
That's kind of, I mean, that is, yeah, it's possible. I, I don't think it's going back to 0.08 anytime soon, maybe not ever. But,
but I, yeah, I think 0.05 is possible. I think that's a possibility. I mean, the, the current down move that ETH, Bitcoin is currently in was, is a very seasonal move. And I, I would not expect ETH to to rally against Bitcoin until it's going to happen, I think, either early November or early or early December. So, one of those two. And it, and it what it could be, what it's more likely to be, is a rally in early, you know, sometime in in November, but then another drop kind of probably back down to where it is with, you know, the lows, not the cycle lows, but just like, you know, whatever low it's about to set or even slightly lower. So, if it's going to happen, it'll either be in early November or early, early starting in early December. And then, you know, come 2026, um, it, it, I, I wouldn't generally speaking, if you're going to hold crypto in midterm years, you're better off holding Bitcoin than essentially anything else.
Yeah.
True. Like, literally, there's like only one month of the four-year cycle where that's not true.
Yeah. So, mid-December, everybody, wait for it. Guys, there's a specific question for you. Do you think, and this goes back to that video you did, do you think all these manipulations by Binance and Trump will affect the retails coming to market? Because I just saw another one, the Melania coin, and whatever other coin, uh, I think one of the guys that does, what is it, the Solana Dex or something, uh, Meteora G is,
yeah, is going to be, uh, on the chopping block, and maybe there's some legal ramifications. Anyhow, what, what's your thoughts on this because you've done videos on it?
Yeah, I mean, I think this kind of stuff just reinforces the idea in a lot of people's minds that crypto is, is, is grift. Um, that was the big, that was my big takeaway from the whole Trump and Melania thing. And yeah, like everything we've seen around this exchange, it's people, people who might sort of follow the space but aren't really into it or whatever, or might be crypto curious, I think they look at stuff like this happening from the sidelines and they go, there you go, there you go. It's just, it's all about scams and, you know, rug pools, and it's just a load of, it's, it's a load of nonsense at best and dangerous at worst. And it's like, you, so, it's, it's, it's tough having to counter that because, you know, every time you try to, every time you try to outline, you know, the benefits that crypto can bring and the cool things that are being built, you know, someone comes along and just perpetrates some, some great big scam, you're like, "Yeah, yeah, there is, there's a lot of that, too." So, yeah, it does, it does affect retail because, and I think it's very, very difficult to change people's minds. And as I've said many times before, I don't think a lot of people have ever really changed their position on crypto since 2022. You know, courtesy mostly of Mr. Sam Bankman-Fried. And like, I did, one of my hopes for this cycle was that we might be able to change that, and that we might be able to convince some people that there's more, a lot more to crypto than, you know, just bad guys doing bad things and getting rich off the back of it. But unfortunately, we haven't managed to do that. Um, whether that's whose fault that is, is, is a topic for another live stream, but we've, you know, we, that, that hasn't, that hasn't come to pass, which is one reason retail have not returned in force.
Yep. I think we had our chance with meme coins, and they all got burned because the VCs burned them. And then, uh, I mean, and they're not going to forget that. But on the flip side, maybe Ben's right, maybe the short-term memory does, uh, evaporate, and they come back. We'll see. But we pretty much torched them last time. So, here we are. And lastly, I'm just going to, we need to get out of here. I'll just leave this with with two. It's lovely as always to join you three. One of my favorite times. I hope you're all well, and same goes here. Loved ones, take care. Everybody, take care. It's not the end all be all. The markets will still be here. So, go outside and touch grass, sand, snow, or dirt. That's it for today. So, everybody, follow Ben and Guy. Uh, I will get to those, the person who, uh, put in their, uh, Twitter account or their X account. Tangent card is coming. That's it for today. Thanks, everybody. Next, uh, week, we're on Guy's channel. Yeah. So, we'll see you on that one. Thanks, everybody. Adios.
Thanks, guys.