Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are feeling good. I am very happy to reconnect with you for this breaking news video on this Thursday, October 9, 2025, under a slightly red crypto market, unfortunately. So, you see, it's a bit green here because it's the 24-hour performance, and so yesterday, Wednesday, cryptos were rising steadily, but as I was telling you yesterday, there were small bullish channels forming on the structure. These are rather bearish structures. And this morning, it's slightly down, it's not a big deal, we're at around minus 2% on average, but is the decline over? Well, you'll see why cryptos, it might not be over. You'll understand why in terms of the traditional market, but look at everything, ultimately, you'll tell me, "Well, it's not very good," but when you see Nvidia pushing, when Nvidia goes, everything goes, like the PTI, everything goes. And so, ultimately, yesterday the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed in a very nice green, especially the Nasdaq which continues to push, a historic record. We see the futures for now on the American indices which are rather green with gold correcting. Well, there's no reason for Wall Street to be very bearish this afternoon. If we do a quick global overview of the market here, quickly, but look at the S&P 500 here, I'll put it in white. Boom! The S&P 500 still at a historic record. The Nasdaq at a historic record, it's crazy. And the Dollar corrected a little yesterday. Well, gold also corrected. So for now, the stock market is simply going to the Moon, and cryptos are correcting a little, but hey, nothing serious. But you see these small bullish channels like this, like for Bitcoin, it's not very, very pretty, like for Ethereum too, not very, very good. So we would rather be in a small corrective phase, and you will understand why, why our beloved cryptos are correcting like this. Well, guess what, there's an old whale, a whale that bothered us a bit this summer. A whale that has 11 billion dollars in Bitcoin. So it's a big, cute whale, you see. She sold half of her Bitcoin to buy Ethereum this summer, you see. And so maybe, you see, well, we wonder why she's doing that? But okay, she does what she wants. And so, she transferred 360 million dollars in Bitcoin in the last few days. It was Tuesday, exactly the day before yesterday. And so, well, let's see where this big whale is, she has 5 billion Bitcoin left because she already sold 5 billion Bitcoin. When she transfers 360 million, you understand that some investors are in "Oh my god, I'm scared" mode. Well, on Tuesday she transferred 360 million. On Wednesday, the whale still had 5 billion, so that's Bitcoin in her main portfolio. So, will she start selling Bitcoin again because it reached $126,000? Well, that remains possible. Well, and the problem is, you'll tell me, "Yes, but Foufi, it's just one whale." But the problem is that big whales like that are followed. And big whales, well, they have little whales next to them who follow them and do the same. Why do I say that? Because when this big whale started selling billions of dollars in Bitcoin this summer to buy Ethereum, there were small whales who did the same. Some copy them, they do the same thing, they don't bother, they say, "Oh, this is a big whale, if she's doing that, it's because she's right. I'll do the same." Even though it's totally stupid. Well, and so unfortunately, she's not alone, this whale, because there are quite a few large Bitcoin holders who have been inactive for 3-5 years who started on Monday, when Bitcoin made its historic record at $126,000, to send a lot of Bitcoin to exchanges. And so, it's the biggest sending of Bitcoin since the beginning of 2025. We're talking about 323,000 Bitcoins that have been sent to exchanges since Monday, which is about 3, about 4 billion dollars. Well, so between this big whale we know and many small portfolios or large portfolios that have sent 4 billion more Bitcoin to exchanges, well, you understand why there is selling pressure and why, well, it stings a little for now. We hope it won't sting too much more. Well, so for now, as soon as inactive big whales start selling because it's a historic record, well, it immediately calms things down a bit. We also have OG whales. So, hold on tight, these are whales that reached their accumulation peak in 2011. That is to say, these are whales that accumulated in 2009, 2010, 2011. In 2011 they stopped, they have an average price of less than $10 per Bitcoin. It's crazy. And so unfortunately, this type of whale also sometimes wakes up, like now, to sell a little. And the problem isn't that it wakes up to sell. Well, yes, it's a small problem. But the problem is that now, when one of these whales sells a Bitcoin, when Bitcoin was at $20,000, well, it was enough for someone or a group of people to put $20,000 and boom, they offset the sale. The problem now is that to offset the sale of these whales, to sell a Bitcoin that they might have bought at $10, well, it takes more than $100,000. Imagine, I'm making a digression, imagine a Bitcoin at 1 million. Well, when these old whales who bought Bitcoin at $10, $10,000, or even $100,000, sell a Bitcoin that's worth 1 million, well, behind it, there needs to be $1 million in purchases to offset a small Bitcoin, you see. So the higher Bitcoin goes, the more money will be needed to offset the sales of old whales, and that's the little problem. Well, so for now, nothing dramatic. A little bearish pressure, a little clear correction, it's fine. Bitcoin is also regaining some momentum. Bitcoin dominance is rising. We have Matrix Sport here telling us that over the last two months, Bitcoin dominance had decreased. It was a bit of a party with Ethereum which pushed well, Solana, BNB, all that. On the other hand, for now, the trend is reversing, and Bitcoin is starting to regain leadership. Often, when you're in a small downtrend, Bitcoin regains leadership because Bitcoin corrects less than the rest. That's why, simply, the dominance rises. Well, so, can we immediately have an Altcoin season, is it going to the Moon? Well, it doesn't seem to be on the agenda for now for those who are asking. On the other hand, we have very positive news. The two pieces of news I'm going to show you are very, very positive. The first is that Bitcoin should continue to push far from its historic record, far from having finished its cycle. Okay, on Monday it made a new historic record, $126,000, we're happy. Well, it corrected right after because of profit-taking, but we are still far from the peak of the 4-year cycle, according to some, like here Cryptocante, who directly tells us that despite Bitcoin's solid performance, technical indicators suggest that the price is still evolving in a stable range, far from the overbought conditions that previously caused historic peaks. So, in short, they're telling us, "Okay, Bitcoin corrects, it goes up, it corrects, but we don't have the euphoric phase of a bull run party to the Moon." We're not in that, or after you have a crazy bear market, there's none of that. And that's good. Anyway, for years, I've been telling you, if we don't have a huge rise to the Moon, we won't have a huge fall to the ground, which is the bear market. If Bitcoin rises slowly, slowly, slowly, and altcoins too, then there won't be a crazy bear market because there wasn't a crazy rise. There's a crazy fall, which is the bear market, because there was the crazy rise. That's the idea. Well, and so for now, Bitcoin has a small, balanced bullish trend, according to crypto analysts, because it's a regular upward trend without brutal deviations. What is a brutal deviation? It's bam, suddenly it explodes to the Moon. If that happens, there will be a crash to the ground just as quickly. Well, so it needs to continue to rise steadily. They say Bitcoin tends to reach its cycle peak 600 days after the halving, and within 600 days, we're not far off. It's late October, early November. So there are two solutions. Either it will do as usual, suddenly it will explode, suddenly it will rise very, very strongly, and well, it won't be sustainable. Because if it does that, it will fall sharply. But if it ultimately disregards old cycles where there's no parabolic, euphoric, crazy phase, then, on our end, we won't have a bear market. And I prefer that. Well, everyone thinks as they want, you'll tell me what you think in the comments. But I prefer not to have a sudden explosion to the Moon, followed by a bear market where we cry for a year and a half. I prefer it to rise steadily, to take its time. At least we won't have a bear market. Well, after that, you'll say, those who are in altcoins will tell me, "No, I want an altcoin 100x, I want my portfolio to explode, blah blah blah." Well, but those are the newcomers. But if you don't exit well, then you'll have a bear market, your portfolio will be close to zero, you see, that's the problem. Well, so for now, Bitcoin is in a critical window. Why do we say that? Because, well, the window where it is in time, the 600 days, we are at the end. So we'll see if it's going to explode or not, or if it will quietly continue its journey. I prefer it to do things quietly. We have Mat Hugan here, Director of Strategy at Bitwise, he's very bullish, it's always interesting to listen to. He tells us that ETF flows will increase in the fourth quarter. He sees Bitcoin not exploding to the Moon, but continuing to rise steadily. He tells us that everything is in place for a solid fourth quarter, more than enough to propel it to new records. But we're not talking about "Yeah, we're going to explode immediately," and that's good because gold is exploding. Well, everything is going wrong on the macro level, and so actors are taking refuge, investors are moving towards safe-haven assets but also high-yield assets. That's why stocks are pushing. Well, and Nomatogan tells us that even if it's counterintuitive, higher Bitcoin prices also stimulate Bitcoin demand because the media, companies, and investors are turning their attention to Bitcoin. So the more Bitcoin rises, the more it will continue to make small historic records, people will become interested, and the more people will come, they will push it to make historic records, and it's a small virtuous circle, as usual, you have lots of memes circulating on the internet, "A Bitcoin at $20,000? Oh no, nobody wanted it because it was worthless, it had crashed." On the other hand, "A Bitcoin at $100, $120? Interesting, we want it," you see. So, well, and it's the same old joke, as usual. Well, and so he tells us that Wall Street will also buy a lot of Bitcoin to do what's called "debasement of the train," basically where the dollar depreciates a lot and they look for returns elsewhere. Well, he also tells us that some of the largest wealth managers will also switch to opening their platforms to Bitcoin ETFs. We also have a recent report from Morgan Stanley that was published this month, which guides their 16,000 advisors to tell their clients to allocate about 4% of their portfolio to crypto, particularly to ETFs. So it's mainly Bitcoin and Ethereum, you see, Bitcoin first. Well, so that's why for him, we'll have a very positive fourth quarter. For now, it's starting well. Well, October pushed well, you see, so it's pretty good. And to finish, some think that Bitcoin can reach $300,000. So, you'll understand why. Well, here, we are at a 4% drop compared to the record at $126,000. So, it's not at all serious to be afraid. We have quite a few indicators that are closely watched, including one of the most watched, which is the inverse Z-score of Bitcoin. In short, we are far from topping out the cycle. The cycle top was made when Bitcoin had reached, well, the MVRV score had reached the red zone, and we are not there, we are in a bit of a sluggish mode. Well, so that's why some say, well, topping the cycle, plus the fundamentals are positive. The Fed is rather in a trend of easing, you see. We also have treasury companies and Bitcoin buying, we have ETFs buying. Well, we'll move on to the depreciation trade because they think the dollar will depreciate, lose a lot of value, and that assets will go towards stocks, cryptos. Well, which is what's happening right now. So many expect a very good fourth quarter. In addition to that, we have a selection of 30 triggers that comes to us from Conglace. These are 30 long-term indicators. It's funny. And in fact, if you want, none of them have lit up in "Oh my god, that's it, it's the end of the bull run, we're all going into a bear market," you see. So here you have the total at the top. When it's in the red, then you'll have to say it stinks a thousand times. But for now, we are at 100% hold. None of these indicators are overheating. Well, after all, these are 30 indicators, so it gives a little idea of the market. We also have the Pi Cycle indicator, which is followed by many investors, which gives a Bitcoin top around $200,000. Well, that's nice, $200,000, and some also see a consolidation on Bitcoin that has broken through $69,000 and has a target of $303,000 exactly for 2025-2026. Well, so, in short, okay, it's correcting slightly. For now, there's nothing at all to be afraid of. Small whales or big whales are selling a little. Buying pressure is also there, and then little Bitcoin. For now, all the fundamentals are rather good to continue a small rise. So, you'll tell me what you think in the comments. We'll meet again at the end of the afternoon for the analysis as usual. I send kisses. Have a good day, see you later. Bye bye. He. [Music]