Transcription
Hello, it's Crito and I hope you are doing well this evening. Yes, we are falling. We are retesting the 100,000 dollars. We will see why. And I will echo a little bit the daily report from this morning and what I have already done for you for some time with a bearish quantity here. We see that we are going to retest the 100,000 dollars. The Fibonacci extension target is rather classic. That doesn't mean we can't go a little lower. The pressure is very strong but it's not BTC, it's not Ethereum. The problem, the problem is here. Nasdaq, S&P 500, very strong pressure on the macroeconomy. We spoke about it precisely this morning at the opening, we felt that it was complicated and the PMI which arrived, manufactured at 48 here versus the 49 that were forecast in anticipation. So necessarily a little bit below. This fuels this fear of recession and of rate cuts in relation to the recession. We see old names coming back on Twitter with "capot" (hood/cover). I think I will talk about it tomorrow in the daily report, but there you go, we have a return of fear and pressure and that's exactly what we are seeing now, a movement of fear. And at the Nasdaq level, we are filling this little gap here, we are going to retest 250. Uh, here, we are at 25002, sorry, we retested here the 25005. Rather logical in terms of restructuring. So now we will see if there is support or not. Okay? Will we make another question? Will we swallow it tomorrow? I think that when it's like this, we saw it well in the short term, each time it bounces back quite strongly. Donald Trump does not want it to fall. He wants something strong. It's been almost 2 years since he was elected and so necessarily it will be a moment that will be strong in terms of communication and marketing. So necessarily that means he will have support. Now the question is, will BTC be able to follow this recovery at the Nasdaq level? Ah, that will be a little more complicated. We will have to wait for the end of the American session, see what was said, how it was done. In any case, we are paying for the end of the announcement and what is it here at the target level. I just remind you that if we zoom out, we are here in the retest of the 0.5, 100,000 dollars. A very important level on the entirety of this weekly movement here. So necessarily, it will have to be held and this movement will be very important to hold at 0.5. If we break 0.5 and establish ourselves below it in D and even worse if we close below this level on a weekly basis, I think we will have a signal to go much lower quite quickly. The next zone being 92,000 dollars. Okay, but for me, the next zone will especially be 86,000 dollars, which will be much lower. That means a weekly retracement. We are still very far from that for now. We see that the RSI is arriving in the lower parts, I think we should have some form of stabilization around 100,000, 98,000 and then resume an acceleration phase, and we will see how far we go up. Will we go up in an acceleration phase to 107,000 to breathe and re-accelerate? That will certainly be this week. In any case, here, we will have to be patient. S3 buy, in any case on BTC on Exalt, it's much more complicated. There are still a lot of liquidations at the moment. We will certainly do a summary tomorrow morning once the American session is over, once we have all the data, whether it's liquidations, or also at the level of liquidity injections or liquidity exits on ETFs, unfortunately, we don't have enough visibility right away. It will be very important to see it. And again, the closing has not been done on the US. We know very well that it can recover quite quickly, but here we really have a strong candle. And each time we have a strong candle like this, we do have phases of recovery. I will recall October 10, 2025 here which had led precisely to our liquidation on us. But it's a purely Nasdaq movement and that's a bit what we see here. We clearly saw the opening and the difference between the opening in the two. It's something that is quite frequent. We clearly see the next day a powerful restart when we have a big big candle like this. We see it here, candle, boom, it restarts. And likewise, we see a big candle. We generally have a rather bullish reaction, especially since Donald Trump. It's not necessarily the case before, and we see that even if it loses weight compared to the general macroeconomy and the impact on the prices, it doesn't prevent that it will have its role to play in this regard. Especially if there is a de-escalation of the shutdown, right? I remind you, for several weeks now, the shutdown is something that hurts a lot. That is to say, we have the American state that is blocked. The longer it lasts, the longer it is, and the less there is predictability, okay, the more it will impact, and necessarily it's something that we are paying for now. This is exactly what we are experiencing now. So please, be in protection mode. Be careful when we see the impact we see here on certain cryptos. Tao -18%, SPX -19% in a single day. We see that there is very, very strong pressure. So there will again be liquidations. Protect yourself and be careful with your liquidity. Super important. Let the dust settle. Do not play with fear, especially in these decision-making moments. It's always very complicated. It's never the right time to capitulate. When we have a peak of fear, we always wait for the phase of fall and drop and then we resume an acceleration phase. Don't forget what happened in all the base liquidations and all the big candles of this type. Generally, we have a breathing phase afterwards, and that's where we ask ourselves the right questions, particularly about risk management and the exposure we have or want to have to the crypto market. In any case, we will talk about it tomorrow morning. This was just to give you a quick update on what was happening. It's not something that is related to BTC, it's something that is macroeconomic, a continuation of breathing and retracement that is normal at the Nasdaq level. Especially when we are in the middle of a shutdown, especially when we have the situation in the USA at the moment, it's completely normal and logical. Now, we will see if BTC and cryptos will rebound at the same time as the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and the American macroeconomy. And I'll speak to you tomorrow morning. Ah.