Transcription
A couple of days ago, I put out a video about companies regretting their AI layoffs. And the response was immediate. Thousands of comments, lots of anger, and one question kept on coming up over and over. Okay, so they screwed up. Now, what happens? And that's what we're going to talk about today.
Because here's the thing. While the AI bet may have failed for a lot of companies, it doesn't mean that your job is safe. And if you're waiting for the market to just bounce back to normal, I need to tell you something that you're not going to necessarily want to hear. It's not coming back, at least not in the way that it was. And I want to explain why.
First, let's talk about what's going on in the job market right now. Companies aren't laying off in mass, although there have been a few headlines recently, but it's nowhere near the levels that they were a few years ago. Unemployment sits around 4.5%, which is okay. It's not great. It's not terrible. But here's what the numbers hide. Companies are in what economists call a low hire, lowfire phase, which is a fancy way of saying they're not necessarily cutting people, but they're also not hiring people unless they absolutely have to. In other words, they're frozen.
I've talked about this in other videos. They're unsettled enough about the economy to put a pause on hiring decisions, but they're not concerned enough to start another wave of mass layoffs because, frankly, they know how bad the optics were last time. So, if you're unemployed right now, your job is probably safe, at least for the time being. But if you're searching for a job, you realize this that you're in a war of attrition. And most people don't know how long this freeze could last.
Those companies that laid off people to invest in AI, well, a lot of them can't admit that it didn't work out quite as expected. They're kind of between a rock and a hard place. They can't rehire the people that they just cut without looking like they made a massive public mistake. and they can't scale without those same people that they just laid off. All of that tribal knowledge is gone.
But here's what is changing. Even when companies start to hire again, they're not going to be hiring the way they used to. In fact, 72% of CEOs say they plan to increase their use of contractors, freelancers, and gig workers in the next year. Not instead of full-time employees, but alongside them. And this isn't just happening at the junior levels. We're talking fractional CFOs, fractional CMOs, even fractional CHRO's. Those are those human resources people that you like to make fun of.
You see, companies figured out something during all these mass layoffs over the last few years. They could hire specialized expertise for 15 hours a week instead of hiring somebody full-time to sit in a role that doesn't need 40 hours of attention. And let's face it, a lot of the positions that they were laying off were people who were underutilized. No. Does that mean that full-time jobs are dead? Absolutely not. They are still out there. They're still going to be hired. Companies are still going to be filling those positions, but the landscape is shifting.
But if you're only looking for traditional full-time roles, you're ignoring a huge part of where the opportunities actually are. In fact, I talked to somebody in a coaching call last week who's a fractional VP of marketing for three different companies. She makes more money than she did in her full-time job. She might have not so good benefits, but she has way more control over her schedule and the type of work that she takes on. And if one employer doesn't suit her fancy anymore, she simply leaves it and finds another fractional opportunity. So, is that better? Well, I guess it depends on what you value. But it is becoming a real and viable option and a version of what work is actually becoming.
Now, the point is you don't have to go fractional, but rather it's the definition of career that's expanding. So, if you're rigidly waiting for this old model to come back, this old system that we've all grown very accustomed to, you may actually be missing out on what's available right now.
Okay, here's another thing you've probably heard. In fact, you probably have heard it on this channel. Companies are moving to skill-based hiring. Degrees don't matter as much anymore. It's really more about what you can do. Now, that all sounds great, right? Like, finally, the playing field is being leveled. Except here's the problem. When companies say that they want skills, they don't actually mean the skills that you have. They mean the skills that they need right now. And these are things like AI literacy, data fluency, automation tool expertise, cloud infrastructure knowledge.
So, if you're a 50-year-old marketing accountant who's been laid off, or a mid-level marketer who's been doing the same type of thing for the last 10 years, this shift isn't necessarily helping you. It's helping the 28-year-old who's taught themselves Python and is learning how to prompt chat GPT like they were born to do it. So, yes, skills-based hiring is real, but it's not the win that most people think it is. It's just a new hamster wheel. By the time you upskill into what they want today, they're going to be on to something different tomorrow. I'm not saying don't upskill because you absolutely should. But what I'm saying is is don't necessarily expect that to solve all of your problems.
Now, let's go back to AI for a second because I know what a lot of you are thinking. Okay, companies laid us off to bet on AI and it didn't exactly work the way they expected. So, doesn't that mean that they need us back? So, in theory, I would say yes. But the reality is probably not. And here's what actually happened. AI didn't necessarily replace you, but it convinced your employer that they could get by with fewer people. That's why the layoffs happened. They thought the tool would bridge the gap. So, they took these risks that they normally wouldn't have. But the thing is that didn't and it isn't. And they're not going to publicly admit it.
So, instead, they're making the people who are left pick up the slack. They're hiring contractors to fill some gaps. They're automating what AI actually can automate, mostly those junior levels or the repetitive work. They're doubling down on it. That mid-level knowledge work, and that's probably where you are. Well, that work isn't gone, but the hiring for it is slowed because companies are still figuring out what they actually need. They're in a wait and see mode, and you're waiting for them to realize they need people, not just the tools.
But here's the thing, they will realize it, but it's not going to be a sudden reversal where they rehire everybody they've cut. It's going to be gradual. It's going to be selective, and it's probably going to be structured different than it was before.
And if you're over 50, I need to be really direct with you about something. 25% of job seekers aged 55 and older have been searching for more than 6 months. That's one in four people. Now, this obviously isn't a skill gap, nor is it bad luck. Rather, it's a systematic exclusion, masquerading as not the right culture fit. And if you're over the age of 50, I'm sure you've heard that one before. And the data proves what you've already suspected. If you're older and you're not getting any call backs, you're not imagining it.
Now, I've talked about this before and actually I did an entire video on why companies don't want to hire older workers and I'll link it up here because it goes into the deeper mechanics of how this actually happens. But the short version is age discrimination is real. It's measurable and it's only getting worse in this market because when jobs are scarce, companies get pickier. And one of the things they get picky about, even if they are never going to say this out loud, is age.
So if you're in this boat, my advice is the same advice I give everybody. Stop waiting around for permission to have a career. Stop letting them tell you that you're too old to be relevant. Stop letting them tell you that you're too old to learn new skills. You're going to have to build something that doesn't require their approval, their vote, or their call back. Whether that's through consulting, fractional work, potentially a small business, or maybe something completely different entirely, because the traditional job market has essentially made its decision about you and waiting for it to change its mind. That's not a strategy.
One more thing before I wrap this up. Stop reading the national unemployment numbers and think that they automatically apply to you because frankly, they don't. The national unemployment rate is 4.5. Great. But what does that mean for you specifically in your city, in your industry, applying for the jobs that you're qualified to do? Because a software engineer in Austin is going to be a completely different job market than a software engineer in Cleveland. And a marketer in New York City has completely different options than a marketer in Kansas City. Your market is hyper local now and the national numbers are relatively useless. Look at them for overall trends, but you need to look closer to you to see what's actually going on.
So, if you're in a city where your industry is thriving, you might be fine. But if you're not, you're competing for the scraps. And remote work used to be the escape hatch for that. But more and more companies have been pulling people back into the office. So, geography certainly matters again in a way that it hasn't mattered in years. And if you're in the wrong place for what you do, or maybe you're one of the unfortunate ones who moved very far away from an urban base, that's a real problem. One you're going to have to solve strategically and not just by applying harder.
So, let's bring this all together. What comes after the AI layoffs? Well, I don't think it's a total collapse, but I don't think it's going to return to normal either. What comes next is evolution. Companies are adapting and the way they hire is changing. The structure of work is shifting. And some of that's actually pretty good, and some of it's certainly frustrating, but most of it is just different.
But here's the thing. Humans adapt. We always have. we've had to adapt in order to stay alive. And the people who are going to do well in this market aren't the ones who are waiting for 2019 to come back. They're the ones who are going to look at what's actually happening and say, "Okay, how do I position myself for this version of the world?" So that might mean going after those full-time jobs, which still exist by the way, but it also means doing it strategically, understanding how companies are actually making decisions, having the right skills at the right time in the right place. Timing matters here.
Or it might mean exploring alternative ways of looking at work, fractional consulting, contract roles, not because you have to, but because the opportunity is there and you're not going to ignore it just because it doesn't fit into the old model. And it definitely means stop waiting for permission. Stop waiting for the market to be fair. Stop waiting for somebody to notice how qualified you are and just hand you things that you deserve because that's not how it works anymore. Maybe it never really did, but the people who are winning in this market are going to be the ones who take control. The ones who stop being the passengers in their career and start acting like the CEO of it.
Now, I know this sounds cliche, but I mean it literally. You need to start running your career like a business with you as the CEO with strategy, with positioning, with a plan that's based on what the market actually is, not what you wish it would be. And that's what I teach the whole point of everything that I do here because I've spent 20 years watching people get chewed up by a system they didn't understand. And I decided I was no longer going to let that happen without at least trying to give people the playbook.
Now, if you want that playbook, I've created a free webinar that walks you through exactly how to think like the CEO of your career. It's not fluff. It's the actual framework I use with my coaching clients. Now, the link is in the description below. I also have a program called the Ultimate Career Blueprint, which goes even deeper. how to position yourself, how to navigate through a job market like this, how to build leverage when you don't feel like you have any, and how to have a successful career where you're in control.
But even if you don't want to do any of that, here's what I want you to take away from this video. The market's changing. It's not good or bad. It just simply is. And the faster you accept that and start adapting, the better off you're going to be. Because sitting around waiting for normal to come back, that's not a strategy. That's just hoping somebody comes and fixes the problem for you. And I don't know about you, but I would rather be in control.
All right, that's it for today. And if this helped you see the market just a little more clearly or made you feel a little less alone in what you're going through, maybe share it with somebody who needs to hear it. Because the people who are struggling most right now are the ones who are still being told just stay positive and keep applying. But most importantly, and I sincerely mean this, you are not the problem. The system is evolving and you're allowed to feel frustrated by that. Just don't let that frustration turn into paralysis. All right, as always, thanks for watching.