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86% трейдеров СЛИВАЮТ всё. 5 историй "успеха"

Тимур Севостьянов28:15

Transcription

Greetings. Today we have a story with you about five heroes of one exchange. 3.6 trillion in turnover in just half a year. One of them earned 92 million dollars in just some 4 hours. And still absolutely no one knows who this is. The second turned 87 million into 900 dollars. The third left the exchange after just one trade. The fourth had a hundred percent win rate on all his trades, but in the end lost absolutely everything. The fifth deliberately burned 3 million dollars in order to attack that very exchange.

This is Hyperliquid. This is a story about five incredible cases. A story about one of the most successful crypto projects. About how one can even in the current market earn on the losses of other people. And, of course, about a token that during the most severe fall not only did not fall, but even grew.

Watch until the end, because now I will show you what signals indicated that James Win would lose absolutely everything a week before it happened. How did one anonymous person earn 192 million dollars 4 hours before Trump's tweet? And was this insider information? How not to end up among the 6,300 wallets that zeroed out in one day. Well, and the cherry on top, how you can earn on all this, even now, if you are suddenly not aware, I don't know why, what Hyperliquid is.

Everything is quite simple. This is a decentralized futures exchange. It appeared in 2024, and by April 26 it had already processed 3.6 trillion dollars. So you understand, this is more than the GDP of Great Britain. That's how much it is.

The main feature, of course, is leveraged futures. If very simply, we can take 100 dollars, and open a position on them up to 4,000 dollars, that is, forty times leverage. And that for a second, holy cow. If you were lucky and the market went your way, well done. Incredibly, incredibly good job, earned a lot. But if not yours, sorry, you lost your 100 dollars.

So, in this geometric meat grinder, five heroes passed in half a year. And each, in essence, is a separate story. And today we will analyze separate lessons with you. Let's go.

The first hero is James Win. Ah, most likely, you have heard about him, if you follow Twitter in any way or crypto in general. Quite popular. 300,000 followers on Twitter, 10-30 posts a day from him. That is, also quite active. And in fact, this is the face of memetrading in 2025. Where did the money come from? In twenty-three, he, ah, with a Pepe capitalization of literally half a million, ah, invested 7,000 dollars and earned 25 million. Incredible luck, fortune, well done, everything is super, but all this he sent to Hyperliquid. The plot begins.

Ah, on May 20, twenty-five, he opens his first long on Bitcoin in a position of 35 million, of which 3.3 are his own money. Everything else, in essence, is leverage. He used forty times. And a direct quote: "The fluctuations are insane. Don't use forty times leverage, but we are winning again. Whales want me to leave." Quite a, you know, firm statement. But what happens a little later? Literally 11 days later, well, that is, just a little, the position exceeds 1 billion, with his own money being 26-28 million. And this is one of the largest public trades, in principle, in the history of decentralized exchanges. And in fact, this turned out to be such a, you know, very good marketing for Hyperliquid.

A peak profit of 87 million dollars, which he could have earned, but everything went not as he planned. Classic. And thanks to the fact that this is still a decentralized exchange, one can see the entire chronology of actions. And it's quite interesting there. We can directly track the pattern. And what happens? A week before the liquidation on the 20th, and even on May 20, he added to the position, but essentially not at the lows, but at the highs. On the twenty-second, he fixes profit. Already great, already well done. And immediately, right then, he adds another 100,000 on top. And if translated into human language, essentially, he did not let the position breathe. He kept building it up all the time. And those who copied his actions, because he did all this essentially publicly, well, they all lost.

In a week, from May 25 to the thirtieth, he gave back almost everything he earned and even went further into the red, recording a loss of 94 million dollars. That is, essentially, remember, those 87, they are no longer there. And here is his direct quote: "The return will be merciless." Addressing the conspirators who control this market. I have everything, except for a plane. Several properties, a full garage of cars, a balance at that moment of 20 dollars. Classic. And it would seem, already here. That's it, enough, stop. But the classic of the genre, again, repeats itself. No. On April 6 of this year, essentially, well, 2 weeks ago, yes, the sixth liquidation in 2 weeks in a row. And again, the account is 900 dollars. And, well, incredibly, just ludomania. And essentially, despite the fact that he was incredibly lucky with the Pepe asset, yes, where he earned a lot, constant liquidations and money drains. This person is essentially, you know, the archetype, well, of Icarus, yes, and in fact, this is the first hero in our saga.

If you just now learned about Hyperliquid and want me to analyze every wallet of the top 100 traders, want me to describe in more detail how you can earn on Hyperliquid on traders' losses, then from you right now a like and definitely a comment, and I will do it. And we go further.

The second hero of our saga. Ah, he has no name. Thanks to decentralization, thanks, of course, to anonymity, but there is a wallet address. And in fact, thanks to this, we can know absolutely all his actions. So, on October 10, twenty-five, a normal market, nothing is happening. Approximately 20:00 UTC, and 20 minutes later this wallet opens a short on Bitcoin for some incredible sums, 280 million dollars with 20x leverage. 30 minutes later, Donald Trump publishes a post about one hundred percent tariffs on China. Bitcoin falls incredibly sharply. You, most likely, know this story. 4 hours later, on this account of our main hero, the anonymous person, 192 million dollars in net profit. In fact, perhaps, this is the most successful trader in the entire existence of trading. In principle, for many who are somehow connected with crypto, or simply invest, remember this date. It is iconic, many people lost absolutely everything on this day, and someone, like our anonymous hero, managed to earn.

Well, now let's talk about the scale. On this day, besides it being one of the largest market crashes, ah, altcoins fell by 70-80, some even by 90%. On that very Hyperliquid, in 24 hours, think about it, 63,000 wallets were liquidated. Simply 63,000 people lost everything, simply to zero. If you look at the top 100 losing traders, they lost 740 million dollars. In total, exchanges lost 1 billion 230 million. A billion, a billion, and against the background of all this, our main hero, the Anonymous one, well, collects almost 200 million. Hmm, is this successful success or insider trading? A little later, we will, of course, analyze this with you.

Of course, on this day there were also those who earned. I talked about this in my Telegram channel. The link is in the description. We also managed to earn thanks to the fact that we provided liquidity to those very traders. And when they lost, we earned. And in fact, there were incredible cases where really in 15 minutes 10-15% stuck to the principal. This is just a crazy case. But regarding our main hero, analysts from Arch Intelligence and a couple of other companies. Let's be direct. They look at trading and say: "30 minutes is not luck, it is knowledge." Well, objectively, 30 minutes before such an announcement, well, it's hard to say that a person, ah, simply predicted it. The investigation pointed to Garrett Jen. This is the former CEO of the BitFex exchange. One of the associated wallets. It is essentially still managed by him. He publicly admits that he manages client money, but denies access to insider information. And there is a direct quote from the investigation. On October 20, a certain wallet repeats the trick, opens a new short for 163 million, the market falls again, profit is again in the black. To this day, no one knows who this person is and if he knew the future. Well, come on. Factually, well, he definitely knew, well, unequivocally knew. And this is not even the whole story.

In fact, in December twenty-five, of course, this was a huge event. People lost an incredible amount of money there. There were approximately 20 billion in total liquidations across all exchanges. An incredible amount. So, one company is Guntland, and the report, of course, is large about what happened on the Hyperliquid exchange itself. And they found that the exchange's outdated ADL algorithm forcibly closed profitable trader positions for 650 million dollars more than necessary. This is approximately 28 times, yes, more than the system's actual loss. To put it simply, while our main anonymous hero was fixing profit, other traders, who even by some miracle were on the right side and shorting the market, ah, they were closed without their knowledge and essentially without their choice. And this is no longer decentralization at all, this is such a factual, in fact, casino, where the rules change during the game. And this is important to remember, because when we analyze the fifth hero, they directly took advantage of this, very elegantly took advantage of it.

The third hero of our saga, in fact, is the complete opposite of the first hero. Anonymous, no Twitter, six wallets, on which approximately 300 million dollars in Ethereum and Solana. And on Hyperliquid he was called White Whale, essentially a white whale. He appeared in July twenty-five and in the first week 30 million profit. Well, incredible figures generally. By August, 50 million in 30 days. Well, in fact, this is generally an absolute record for traditional P&L on the platform and absolutely no one even comes close. His trading style, you know, is such a classic long-term trader with conservative risk management. There is definitely no forty times leverage, no 1,300 million positions. No, no, no, none of that was there. Just patient entry on corrections, exit according to plan, well, ideal overall profit.

And now that very fateful day, October 10, of course, to that very day. I remember I said this would definitely come in handy. And here it is. While our second hero earns incredible sums of money, the white whale sits in longs. Classic. But Bitcoin falls, Ethereum falls, and Solana falls by 60%. Simultaneously, another thing happens. The exchange freezes his assets. And a purely administrative deprivation without explanation, in principle, of the reason. Because of this, the Oracle price on Hyperliquid and the real price on other exchanges diverge greatly, very greatly. Hyperliquid calculates the position at its own price and liquidates it. And in one day -62.5 million. This is the first liquidation in his career on this exchange. And in fact, here one must really take off their hat, give credit to his last liquidation. There was also, in fact, a long deliberation. He even wrote a message there that he is leaving, in principle, ah-ah, from trading, engaging in improving the basic security design of decentralized exchanges. If simply put, he leaves Hyperliquid for a competitor, but what must be given credit for? He stopped, he didn't lose everything. He didn't become a total gambler trying to recover. And the main, in essence, lesson, which he gave, ideal risk management, ideal strategy generally does not protect against a black swan. And it would seem, stops are your friend, yes, but on the day of a crash, stops do not work, because exchanges physically do not manage to close a position at the lower price there, yes, simply there was not even liquidity. And closing occurs with a delay and sometimes a strong delay in terms of price. And real losses are many times greater than theoretical ones, there directly much more, yes, especially what happened on that very fateful day. Uh, this is, you know, what none of the crypto influencers show. And such a logic, that in any investment instrument, related to leverage, you cannot protect yourself in any way. And now it's important. Write in the comments, if you traded with leverage, where I am wrong, because you generally like to write that. And it's important to share your story, because here we see only such probable cases from super luck to super losses. But life is a little different, yes. And the more stories we collect, the more people we will protect.

And let the fourth hero of our saga be the invincible one. Ah, again anonymous. Ah, there is only a wallet, but again, thanks to the wallet, we see absolutely everything. And what's interesting is that in November twenty-five, everyone was talking about him. They wrote a lot on Twitter. In our Telegram channels, they also often wrote. The reason is clear. And by that moment, 14 winning trades, 14, zero losing, 100% win rate. Well, that's just madness. Positions by classic: long Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, San token is attracting, that is, hype, true, yes, strong assets. Maximum size of total longs approximately 400 million. Well, quite a lot. The tactic is quite simple, probably like a classic of trading courses. Strict stop-loss 30%. Never hold exactly losing positions, average down in minutes, do not hold a position overnight. Well, such a diligent student, successful, yes, student. So, on November 5. What happens? The market meets our hero, probably a little stronger than he expected. And here happens a classic, that there is a profit of plus 25 million. Well, that's a lot. And if he had closed, it would have been the fifteenth successful trade in a row. Incredible figures, incredible result. But he did not close. He averaged down, then averaged down again, and again averaged down, and again averaged down. And in the end, of course, a loss. And you know, a significant loss, minus 30 million. And on the account remains 1,400,000 margin out of 400. The fifteenth case is generally incredible.

Well, let's draw a line here, some conclusions after our main hero number four. Ah, everything is very simple. The lesson is harsh, the harshest. Ah, a 100% win rate is impossible from the word entirely. If you were lucky 14 times in a row, then your fifteenth risk increases so much that all the earned profit, well, most likely, will be lost. This is, in essence, a kind of gambling run, yes, and a mathematical ruin of the player. The same thing happened with the first one after Pepe, when he, ah, earned a lot, and then lost everything. Well, and with the fourth. And here an important tactic is that initially the strategy should be such as not to increase risk, but these are already psychological nuances.

And now, probably the most interesting case in the entire history of Hyperliquid. And the fifth hero. In fact, there are three of them. And it's not for nothing that I opened the Hyperliquid Provider Pool. Today will be about it. Ah, three heroes, three wallets, and approximately March twenty-five. They don't trade. They are actually hacking the exchange and hacking not through code, not through exploits, but through its own internal rules and mechanics. The first wallet opens a short for a little over a million with change on one small-cap memetoken. Two others open a long on the same asset, approximately 2 million. And what's the logic? The goal is to make the exchange automatically inherit the short. This very Hyperliquid Provider Pool, HLP. And this is the exchange's insurance fund. When a trader cannot cover their loss, their position goes into the HLP. In essence, this is what we will talk about today. Earning against traders. And the attackers specifically opened a short of such a size that it was impossible to close it on a normal market without a catastrophic price movement. Well, a small-cap token, any movement there goes for a couple of cents. And they began to buy up that very token on other exchanges very actively and very aggressively. And if they buy up, the price rises sharply. The attacker specifically opened a short of such a size, yes, while they started manually raising the price there. And essentially, in literally about an hour, the price there was plus 425% for this asset. The first one's short is in a gigantic loss, accordingly, the exchange automatically transfers it to the HLP pool. And now the short is approximately 13.5 million in loss, and the other positions, they are in long and, accordingly, of course, in profit. And here happens what, after which decentralization generally disappears.

In principle, the Hyperliquid team gathers and decides that they manually, manually set the closing price of the tokens. Ah-ah, and in fact, they delist it generally, in principle, from the exchange. HLP closes the position with a profit, there 700,000, a little. The attackers managed to withdraw some money, that's about 6 million. Also in a small, as it were, profit. Everything is good, but much less than they calculated. And here, you know, what needs to be remembered? Remember, I told you about the second hero, about the report of 650 million excess forced liquidations? This is the same story, that decentralization actually disappears. Yes, the guys are well done, they saved the exchange, helped, saved the HLP pool and all depositors, but what people go into DeFi for, evaporates. Now only pure cold earning remains. Those who manage this market sit in a chat and decide what to do with your money.

And share, when decentralization disappeared for you, because for me it was a case, probably, with Arbitrum, the blockchain quite recently, when 70 million dollars, yes, although stolen, were transferred from one wallet to another without the owner's knowledge. Here I definitely understood that decentralization does not exist. Everyone has their own stories, please share. Let's understand. Hmm, and we will definitely analyze the best in future videos.

Five heroes and, in fact, one pattern on Hyperliquid: approximately 1,400,000 active people trade. Of them, 86% ultimately remain in loss. And this is not just a figure from out of nowhere, this is a real study from BainCrypto. Ah, the first hero lost because he was greedy. M. Hmm, the white whale. Well, probably because he trusted the system, the third one, because he believed in his infallibility. And the attackers, well, because they found a vulnerability, but they were not allowed to use it. And only one remained, that very second anonymous person. He earned and left. But the question is, was this really a fair deal, or still insider trading? And here's an important point. If 86% of traders lose, then we can earn on this. Here's the question, how we will analyze it with you now.

This is no magic, in essence, this story is about us providing trades for traders. There are several decentralized exchanges from GMX to Hyperliquid. And the logic is that we can give our assets to traders for their use. And here it's important that if a trader wins, and that happens, and in fact not so often, for example, in March people lost 600,000 like that, in April there were constant losses almost to zero precisely for those who provide their liquidity for traders. But if we look at an important aspect over all time, well, the pattern here is clear. Here is that very October 10, where 120 million stuck to this pool. Then, of course, a correction, but the logic remains that within trading it is difficult to earn. But playing against traders, it's quite easy, and you don't need to do anything. You gave your assets and wait for incredible large liquidations.

This is, you know, an old GMX classic. What do we have here? Phew. Let's see. Just profitability. So we won't place assets here now, because I have detailed, detailed instructions in my Telegram channel. The link is in the description. Here I'm more about the fact that you can even just take Ethereum, and in a pair with Ethereum. Well, here it is backed by trades and over a long period of time you can get 6% annually. If you count for the entire period, it's already seven, and for the last 30 days, of course, losses, because what, because traders can play, but generally not often. Well, and we will finish with you with the main question. Who of the five heroes was the smartest?

Win? Yes. No, he is in severe loss. He has 900 dollars there. White whale, yes, also no. He left, after all. The fourth, invincible. Ah, no, he lost. The attackers. Well, by the way, possibly, but this is not about trading, this is about finding a vulnerability. And only the second hero remains, the one who earned 192 million on Trump's tweet, ah, literally in 4 hours. But this is not about trading, this is about, possibly, insider information. We didn't catch him red-handed. And there remains only one logic, that the winner is not those who use some insider trades, not those who find some opportunities from the point of view of an exploit. The winners turn out to be those who simply do not trade. Who sat in spot, possibly, but although now the market is such that even spot simply incredibly strongly destroys your very portfolio. In essence, statistics converge to the fact that there are simply no invincibles. Sooner or later there will be losses, there will be losses, there will be liquidations. Perhaps you are the hero, perhaps you are the smartest, and that very sixth hero of this video, about whom we will soon film a new episode.

Well, that's all for now. And if this video showed you something new, something interesting, then from you, of course, a like. It is also desirable to subscribe. And if you write a comment, then a low bow and gratitude to you. Be sure to subscribe to my Telegram channel, the link is in the description. There I am not about trading, I am more about DeFi strategies, about using opportunities without exploits, about the fact that one can earn without insider information and about the fact that in reality, even in such a terrible market, there is always an option to increase the number of your assets. And we will see you very soon.