Transcription
Happy Wednesday everyone. Welcome back, uh, to this breaking edition of the Dingella Cambone Show. I see what's happening in the gold and silver prices. I feel your pain. Uh, gold right now below $4,000 an ounce. We're going to get some answers for you today.
But on the bright side, there is talk with the US approaching its 250th anniversary, uh, that the precious metals world may get a July 4th gold reset. Well, wouldn't that be nice? Well, today I'm excited to break this all down, uh, with one of your all-time favorite guests, Garrett Soloway, chief market strategist over at Verified Investing. He has over 27 years of experience trading stocks, commodities, and currencies. He's known for his, you know, no BS probability-driven chart analysis and big picture calls on gold and silver. And so far, he's been right on the money with his gold and silver calls. Uh, but he has been calling the long-term bull case in precious metals. We're gonna find out where he stands today, this Wednesday. Gareth, always good to see you.
>> Oh, thank you for having me back, Danielle. This is, I mean, it's, it's a wild time in the precious metals markets, that's for sure.
>> It's a wild time. Investors are feeling the pain, and I just want to tell everyone I'm in the same boat as you. I, I see it. I feel it, too. Uh, but overall, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm very optimistic and I, and I just see this as a, as a chapter, as a momentary, uh, you know, lapse for, for the metals. But Gareth obviously knows way more with this chart. So we're going to get to that. Uh, but first, let's talk about this headline that is circulating. July 4th, are we going to see a gold reset? It's the Judy Shelton, uh, inspired Treasury trust bond idea on a gold revaluation that could possibly be tied to July 4th. Could it actually move the markets or is it just symbolic, just a rumor? What are your thoughts, Gareth?
>> Yeah, so I, I would love for this to happen because I think it, I think eventually, honestly, it probably does happen to some extent. I don't believe that this July 4th is, is going to be that time though. And the main thing is, you know, if you look at the price action on gold, insiders would know this information. If there's one thing we know about the administration in the White House right now is they tell the information to the select elites and then they already are accumulating. The, what we're seeing in gold right now is definitely telling us it is not likely to happen on July 4th. But I do think it's a very fascinating idea and I think it's an idea that has to be explored more. It's a good idea.
>> Okay. Um, let's, thank you for answering that. Now, let's pull up, I couldn't wait. Pull up that gold chart, Gareth, please. So what we see obviously is gold has really come down. We, we've pierced this 4,000 even number and generally even numbers psychologically are levels where when it gets below, when you see that three handle on gold instead of a four handle, there is going to be some buying and we could absolutely see it. I mean, look at the beauty of this trend line going back to October of 2025. Kisses right here when it broke above it in December. Then in, in late December, then we had it in March and again in early June, and here we are again in late June. So, I actually think in the near term, gold is at a little bit of a support structure level here. Um, but I still hold out and I still think it has likely further downside to go, but we are getting close. And, and you were saying Danielle earlier that you're in the same boat and I'm in the same boat, too. So, I want to make that clear. Just because I'm on a, on a shorter term bearish bias on gold, it doesn't mean I don't have long-term holdings in gold and silver. But I'm also a realist. And I think we have to understand is that when you get a momentum-driven, hyped-driven run in gold, that it has to unwind. And that's actually healthy for it. Like, it's, it's like looking at the stock market and thinking we're not in a bubble and just go on forever. Inevitably, that's going to unwind as well. And what we're seeing here is gold is unwinding. Always remember, and this is, this makes people feel a lot better in the near term, technical analysis is what controls the market because it's driven by emotion, right? So right now, people are emotional in gold and silver. Long-term, it's fundamentals, and we know the fundamentals of gold and silver are strong. So eventually price will go back up, it'll make new all-time highs, it probably goes to 10k by 2030 or earlier. But we just got to use this as a buying opportunity and accept.
>> I believe so. And I want to bring up a point. I had Jim Rickards on recently. He brought up his mentor, Jim Rogers, who famously said that no commodity in history, no commodity in history has a parabolic rise like we saw in gold or in silver and doesn't have a 50% correction and then it goes back up. So Jim feels this is what we're seeing in, in gold. We're perhaps getting close to that floor, like you said, like let's take 5500 as, as, as obviously the example here. Um, thoughts on that theory?
>> I think it's, it's absolutely correct. Jim Rogers is a great mind in the investing world. I had the honor to interview him years ago. Um, and he's, he's such a character, too. But the key here is this is that the unwinds are healthy. They happen in almost all bubbles. And, and again, I, I, I'd be reluctant to say that gold was really a bubble there, but I do think you had emotion getting ahead of itself. And even the last time we talked, Danielle, we talked about how gold for a hundred years, 500 years, it's been a store of value. It's been the old trusty steady, okay, I have my insurance policy cuz I hold gold. And then in that split time between November and January of 2026, we saw people jumping into gold because they thought they could get rich quick. And that's always a warning sign. And so, you can have these small periods of get-rich quick. But then you have to flush those people out. Those people are going to get bored in the trade. They're not going to have the staying power that us long-term gold holders have. And that's going to bring price down until it gets to the levels where it washes out those weak hands. Then it'll go back to good old trusty slow and steady gold to the upside.
>> What about, uh, put positions in gold? These massive put positions in gold. Is that part of the story, Gareth, of why we're seeing, uh, the pressure on the gold price?
>> It's, it's a good question. I mean, I'm reluctant to know if that's specifically a factor. It could be one of many factors. I also think, you know, you're now having a point where I think, you know, the Iran war appears to be over to most of the extent where it's very unlikely the president is going to go back to military action at this point. So that takes off another geopolitical risk. And then you just have this constant kind of, you know, gold started to act like the tech sector, like it would go up when the stock market goes up and go down when the stock market goes down. And in general, that's not how gold reacts. And so I think you have this major factor of the unwind of kind of this, this weak-handed money. Um, but I do think again, things like puts, the put, put issues there, as well as some of these others, they all obviously play a small role.
>> Right. But let's play out that theory. I mean, on the other hand, I would say, well, is that bearish? Because if they were so bearish, they would just sell gold.
>> No.
>> No. Yeah. I think you're right on that. I think that's true as well. Um, and, and I assume you're talking about the puts out there. Um, but, but I think you also could have hedging, right? I mean, there's a possibility that when people have large positions on the long side, they do buy puts as kind of a hedge in case price drops. Those can pay out and offset the losses on the physical. So, there's, there's different ways that it can be viewed here, but in general, it certainly is telling you that the market is nervous. At least major players within the market are nervous, and it likely tells us that we haven't fully reached the bottom yet. Okay, let's add to this equation now, the Fed. And there's chatter, you know, we hear, "Oh, hawkish Fed, hawkish Fed. It's hawkish." Now, I think that we're, we, you know, I think the mainstream media is running away with this hawkish narrative. Um, just your thoughts. I mean, do you think we're going to see rate hikes? And, you know, how will that, first of all, do you think we're going to see rate hikes, Gareth?
>> So, I would say I don't think so. Um, I do think that we're already seeing a crack in the AI narrative where we're starting to see these other models out of China be much lower cost. Um, and that is going to have a ripple effect through the capex spending that, in my humble opinion, has been the driver. It's the only reason we're probably haven't been in a recession yet is because of the massive $1 trillion in capex from the AI infrastructure companies that's being spent. That and government spending, obviously, which, which probably will continue. But if that does slow down, I think again, you look at total society, probably 75% of people already feel like they're in a recession. It's just a small percentage that are highly invested in the stock market that don't. Um, and I think again, the Fed is unlikely to hike rates as we will start to see a slowdown later this year. The other thing I would just say is that I don't buy this hawkish Kevin Worsh thing, right? So, you know, we had Trump saying specifically he would never appoint anyone that was going to raise rates. And he wanted someone that was going to cut rates. And so, while I think the first meeting from Kevin Walsh had to be a strong one, I've got, I'm going to get control of inflation. I'm going to do this. I'm going to do that. And the market obviously sold off on that. I don't buy that all of a sudden he fooled Trump and is going to be a hawk versus more of a duck.
>> I agree 100%. And that's why I call it this runaway narrative on the Fed being hawkish based on nothing we've seen yet. That's concrete.
>> That's right. That's right. And also remember that Kevin Worsh has already floated the idea of excluding certain outliers from inflation to make inflation look lower, which gives you the green light to cut rates.
>> All right. Um, getting back to your gold chart, can you, okay, I guess my question is, your $3,500 call, you're obvious, I'm assuming you're sticking to it, or has it gone lower now, or what's a key level you're looking at right now, Gareth, on that chart?
>> Yeah. So, so like we talked about here, is we do have a little support that I have to monitor because again, if we look here, we had the big bounce right off of this level here. Uh, so here we had the big bounce. We hit it again. We had this big bounce. We hit it here. We had a smaller bounce, but we have to assume there's going to be some sort of bounce here as well. Now, on a, on a technical basis, and remember, it's all about technicals. I have no control over this, and it's just the charts or the charts. If we were to break out above 4,300, that to me would say, okay, maybe the 3,900 area is the bottom here. So, you're now getting to a point where you have these two trend lines converging, and that means that we're going to know probably within a couple months. It's one or the other. It's either a breakout or, or we're going to break down. If we break down, then the level becomes very crystal clear here. If we look at this, all of these high pivots along here, that was kind of like a ceiling that the market was hammering against on gold and it finally broke out. There's always this tendency when you break out, and I'll just draw it in here. When you're hammering a lot and you break out, there's this tendency to want to go back and then you go to the next leg up to the upside. And that could be, that's kind of my next all, kind of the, the big level where I would, I would honestly really be a buyer. Now, I will say this. Now that we're below 4,000, we're now within $500 of my final target. To me, that's a rounding error in terms of, you know, does it get down $500 more or does it go to $10,000 first, right? I mean, you have to start weighing this. And so, for me, at least, I'm not opposed to starting to nibble here. I just wouldn't be going all in myself on a, on a long-term holding in gold at this level. I'd leave room to add as it comes down.
>> Awesome. Fantastic. Well said. Okay, let's pivot to silver now. Yeah, this is a tougher chart. So, listen, you know, I've been saying 54 and then $50 is likely where it's headed. I still think 54 at minimum. I will start nibbling at 54, but I still think there's a highly likely chance that we're headed to that even number of 50 and even piercing 50. I think that's probably max pain for a lot of speculative investors to break back below 50 where they would throw in the towel. Psychologically, that's what you want to see before a bottom can be put in. But I just want to show this to you because the, the charts were telling us that this was going to happen. Right? When you look at this, this is called what I call a bouncy ball pattern. It's, you have this huge move up and it's like dropping a ball from up here. What happens? Your first bounce off the floor is your biggest. Then your next one is your second biggest. Then you get this little one and eventually it breaks to the downside. So envision just dropping that ball as how it bounces. The smaller and smaller bounces. But the more it hits this area, the more likely it breaks down. And it weakens that support, and that's what's going on here. So, we do have a breakdown on silver. The next key support level is $54. It's from these two pivots right over here in October and November of 2025. That's likely what we'll see in the next week or so. Uh, at that point, that will be a major support. But ultimately, I still go back to the fact that, you know, if you look at the bigger time frame, let's get rid of all of these lines and we're going to flip over to the monthly. Where is the most likely scene of the crime return?
>> I hate to say it, but your 1980 and your 2011 highs right there.
>> Ow. And listen, that's only, that's about 50 bucks, right? It's not that far away at this point. But the one thing I will just say is that a lot of people rebut that and say, "Well, yeah, but inflation adjusted, silver shouldn't go back." But then remember, folks, is that in the short term, price is driven by emotion. So I'm a big buyer at 50 bucks because I know emotionally it shouldn't be there, right? I mean, that, that's fear and panic driving it to 50 or 49 or wherever. And it eventually, you're right, inflation is the long-term fundamental aspect and that's what will drive price back up. But again, short-term emotion rules the day. Long-term fundamentals do.
>> Yeah. I just, you know, I keep scratching my head over this. I, I just have a gut feeling, you know, specifically to gold that there's a lot happening behind the scenes. I mean, we're seeing, uh, countries repatriating their gold. They want their gold back. We're seeing central banks, you know, we don't, we don't trust the numbers. And the World Gold Council just came out saying the numbers they tabulated is 15x the amount that central banks said they're buying. So I just feel, um, I don't know. It just feels like there's a lot of non-transparent, nefarious activity happening right now. If I could.
>> And I, and I agree with you. I, I think that in a, in a fundamental, if you look at the breadcrumbs, the breadcrumbs say silver and gold are going much, much higher. Um, unfortunately, we know, and you see this in the AI stocks with the ridiculous moves in some of these names up three, 400% on the year to a trillion dollar market cap, is that momentum carries the day, right? And so even though, you know, if you, if you ask the average person walking by about, you know, well, did you know that central banks are buying a massive amount of metal? They're going to, what are you talking about? Right? But if they see that price falling, they're panicking and selling anyways, right? Because emotion is the biggest factor that we have in, in kind of determining what we do. And so I strongly encourage all the viewers, think logically. Right? Yes, we may get down to 50 bucks. To me, that's a huge buying opportunity because fundamentally, central banks are buying, big money is accumulating, they're still going to depreciate fiat currencies with all, you know, more printing of money, the debts continuing to go up. All the major factors are there. We just have to look at this as a great buying opportunity in my, my humble opinion.
>> For fun, I don't know if you have this chart handy, Garrett. Do you have SpaceX?
>> Yes, absolutely.
>> Speaking of momentum and how it can backfire, um.
>> Yeah, I mean, this is, this is case in point what we're talking about, right? Is, is that when this came public, it had three days of retail just fomoing in and then all of a sudden, and, and by the way, insiders like Goldman and the rest of them, they had shares. They're like, "Oh, thank you guys. Thank you. Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell." Right?
>> And then price is now back down here. And now it's basically touched a point where yesterday it was at a level where everyone that bought after it became public was literally negative on their trade. I mean, it was at the lows, the lowest point. Now, if you got it at the IPO price of 135, you're still up, but that's not really a great gain. I mean, in all fairness. And Danielle, let me show you this one other chart. CBRS.
>> This is Cerebrris.
>> This was an IPO that is, it's a chip stock. So, it's a semiconductor AI play. Okay.
>> It was given to insiders before the IPO, $185. It opened at three, basically 310. Goes to 3, or check that. It opened at 350, goes to 385. It's trading at $185. Like literally everyone that bought since this became public is down. That's exactly what we're talking about. This, this panic and it works on the upside, but it also works on the downside. We just have to be smart enough and logical enough to take advantage when it comes down to these levels.
>> Right. So you're not touching that obviously.
>> No, not now. Like, if it gets back to, so, you know, 185 is, is where the insiders. That's, which is really interesting because the institutional money will defend that level because it looks really bad if they're trying to land the next IPO deal and and people are like, "Yeah, but you brought these guys public and it's below their." Like, "I don't really trust you. I'm not going to give you this business." And they make billions of dollars off bringing companies public. So at this point, I'm not touching it because also, you know, we have Micron earnings after the bell today. I mean, all of these type of things, the, the chip stocks are just way, way below it. To me.
>> All right. Um, let's bring up the Bitcoin chart, which you've also been right on the money with here, Gareth.
>> I mean, is Michael Sailor sleeping a little better at night here?
>> I'm not sure. Um, the big issue here is it's retesting 60,000. And so, this is what we call a double bottom. When we hit and we got our bounce. I thought we'd even get a little bit better of a bounce than this, but now that the chip stocks are selling off and risk off is coming back in, if this breaks and confirms below this 60,000 level, we're headed to 50. That's the next big stop on this, this track. So, um, you know, I still, and I said this to you before, is even, even though we're going to get bounces along the way, I still think Bitcoin is going down to at least 50 or 49. Maybe worst case is like 35. But again, once it's below 50, just like with gold being below 4,000, that's where I start to nibble. And I just space out my buys on, on Bitcoin every few thousand dollars, just by a tiny little amount. And I, and you know, then let the rest, as long as my long-term view on Bitcoin stays. And that's the big question is, people watching, has your long-term view on Bitcoin stayed the same or changed? Then you do, you do whatever you got to do. But for me, below 50, I just start inching in on price.
>> Very good. Very good, uh, roundup here, Garrett. Thank you for helping us, uh, make sense of especially of what's happening in gold and silver. Like, you know, I know a lot of people are panicking out there, but like Gareth says, you know, don't, don't panic, just try and understand and get a bigger vision of the entire situation. Gareth, final thoughts?
>> Yeah, and I would just say that's exactly right is that panic is what everyone's doing. You need to separate yourself and think logically. Logic. If you have that longer term view, you know, look at what's going on in the government with spending and printing and the, the Fed and likelihood of being more dovish. The dollar has been ripping higher, which has been also part of the pressure on the metals right now as well. I don't think any of those things, you know, change in, in terms of the dollar eventually comes back in. And so, think logically and you start to see the clear picture and then you start taking advantage of other people's panic, which makes you even more money.
>> Fantastic, Gareth. Uh, we love you here. Thank you so much for your guidance always.
>> Thank you so much, Danielle.
>> I don't know if I told you, I don't know if I told you, Garrett, that ITM.
>> We went global. So now we're actually able to service our clients outside of the United States, Canada, the world, looking to get into physical precious metals, uh, looking to basically, you know, take control back. We can service you now, uh, and help with storage and, and, or just getting, you know, access to physical precious, uh, metals, gold and silver. Uh, so I urge everyone to reach out to my, uh, wonderful colleagues at ITM Trading that can help you with that. Yes, more people we can help, the better. Um, Gareth, and that's, I know, uh, part of your purpose as well. So, um, absolutely keep following Gareth. Well, we'll bring him back, guys. Happy Wednesday. Happy Wednesday, Gareth.
>> Thank you.